2023 Roland Garros Men's Round One

Alcaraz vs Cobolli :

Rough one here for Cobolli. He played really sharp in qualifying and could have trouble some tour names. Alcaraz could struggle early with Cobolli’s quality but Carlos has developed that eventually quality that Nadal had, where you just know he’s going to maintain the level longer than his opponent. Should be a fun match. Alcaraz in 3.

O’Connell vs Daniel :

Generally tennis is about form. All the guys in the top 100 are fairly close in ability and it often comes down to who is at their best on that given day. This is why a normally close contest is one that I expect O’Connell to win. He just turned in a losing effort against Dimitrov but Chris was hitting with good depth off both wings and he was up a set and a break. Beating Dimitrov is something a lot of non-threats have accomplished since he’s maxed out his character stats for handsomeness and inconsistency, but Grigor was near his best in Lyon this week so I expect O’Connell’s good form to trump Daniel’s mediocre results. Taro is on a short string of losses and as far as the tennis, they have a very similar approach albeit with different swing production. O’Connell has a really beautiful one-handed backhand and is looking to outwork his opponent from the baseline. He closes to net well and overall the main problem with his game is he’s just not as physically strong as his opponents sometimes due to his slender frame. Taro Daniel is generally a wall and is looking to move the ball enough to frustrate his opponents into errors. He won’t be hitting aces and he shouldn’t be able to hit O’Connell off the court, but he has enough experience and both lack the weapons to really win in straights. O’Connell in 4.

Arnaldi vs Galan :

Another match where form feels slightly more influential than legacy. Galan’s results on tour have been varied but exceptional. He’s made deep runs on hardcourt and clay and competed evenly at times with top pros. At the same time, he’s strung together months of struggle and is having a middling clay season. Across the net is Arnaldi, who is in the midst of his breakout season. After a good showing at the Next Gen finals, Arnaldi has added some very good level wins to his resume including a straight sets win against Ruud in Madrid. Galan leads the h2h 2-0 after defeating Arnaldi in straights in qualifying, but this match should be a bit different as clay is Arnaldi’s better surface and he’s in much better form this season. In spots like this, it’s hard to really write off Galan since he just defeated Cobolli (a player right near Arnaldi’s level), but losses to Koepfer, Kopriva, and Humbert mean that Galan is vulnerable here. Should be a good match. Arnaldi in 4-5.

Shapovalov vs Nakashima :

Big contrast here in the production lately. Shapo has all the talent, every shot, and has packed on a bunch of muscle this season. He has 1 win on clay so far (just Kovalik) and has played two events. Nakashima is a bit short for tennis, lacked an offensive serve when he arrived on tour, and after a slow start to the season has notched 3 wins in a row in Lyon. The price here is a pickem for these two, and while there may be some recency bias baked into this estimation, Shapovalov is generally regarded as a big draw so Nakashima at even odds is almost pointing to him as a favorite. Shap losing to Tsitsipas is understandable, but the L to Zhizhen Zhang is troubling. Zhang is solid, but Nakashima is right around that level and will be confident here after a good run in Lyon and a surprise win against Shapovalov in Wimbledon last season. Shapovalov is good enough to beat most of the players in this event, but he tends to play at a single speed and his insistence on aggression lets players like Nakashima profit from his errors. Shapo is a someday talent, but it’s hard to tell when that day will come. Nakashima in 4-5.

Musetti vs Ymer M. :

Fresh off a ragemode tantrum in Lyon, Ymer gets a match that is guaranteed to frustrate him a bit. The umpire refused to exit his chair to check a ballmark against Arthur Fils this week, and when the game ended in the Frenchman breaking, Ymer smashed his racquet to bits against the base of the umpire’s chair. This resulted in a default and that uncharacteristic lashout has carried a bit of karma here as he’s drawn one of the more difficult players to deal with on clay. Ymer wins by pushing the pace and defending with his footspeed, and Musetti is both more consistent than him, but also capable of moving the ball well enough to earn errors. This is just all kinds of a bad matchup for Ymer, and I expect him to have a hard time remaining composed as it occurs. Musetti is a darkhorse in RG because of his physicality, skilled play, and ability to hit huge off both wings. Musetti in 3-4.

Shevchenko vs Otte :

Otte has been in a pretty pronounced slump this season, although he nabbed a win in each of his last two events (Baez in Madrid and Kotov in Madrid). He lost to Gaio in Turin last week, but Gaio was playing great there so it’s not a total disaster. This is another match where the more experienced player just isn’t as sharp as the underdog, and it means Shevchenko has a great chance to notch points and prize money that can cement his career on tour for a little while longer. Shevchenko has a big serve, and heavy groundstrokes. It’s enough offense to get him to tiebreakers at worst with Otte, and since Otte is an adept but funky baseliner, I think he’ll eventually break down here. Shevchenko in 4.

Pouille vs Rodionov :

“GOOD, GOOD. THIS PLEASES ME. BEGIN AGAIN” declared the somewhat sinister dragon who lurks beneath Paris and makes the Roland Garros draw. After a marathon qualifier match that saw Lucas Pouille get back on tour in his home slam, Pouille has drawn his final round opponent again. This is a great spot in the draw, but Rodionov’s level tightened up late in this match, and now he has all the incentive to claim revenge and he’ll know to avoid playing it safe as the match drags on. The bright spot for Pouille is that the third set was a 6-0 win, so it appears he’s the more physically strong of the two. Rodionov is hard to gauge, as at times he’s a skilled lefty server and at others he’s more of a conservative baseliner. Pouille will likely lose the early stages of this match again. The crowd will be a bigger factor with more attendance, but Rodionov is a little bit better than Pouille overall. Where Pouille dominates things is when he’s able to get a full swing on his forehand wing. He really still has tour level power and his willingness to go for constant offense can eventually wear down a taller guy like Rodionov. Should be another close match with a similar result. Pouille in 4-5.

Paire vs Norrie :

DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK, I BENOIT FOR YEARS! If you think Paire is going to lose this match, wow, just wow. Because he lost his last handful of matches? Because he’s been stuck on the Challenger tour? Because his opponent is in the top 10 and is coming off a run of solid wins in Lyon? Because Paire has never won a set against his opponent? Wow, haters are everywhere I guess. This match feels impossible for Benoit to win, but Norrie’s particularly funky style seems like it will bother Paire into competing where he can. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stole a set with the aid of his home crowd, but Paire is a guy who has seemed destined to crash off tour every single season I watch, so besting Cam Norrie is a huge ask. Norrie in 3-4.

Auger-Alliassime vs Fognini :

The clock strikes 7am. Fognini opens his eyes, only to see himself staring back at him. There is a mirror on the ceiling above his bed, not for sex, but because his reflection is beautiful, and he deserves it. Fognini slowly stands up and stretches like a cat. “The most beautiful animal is a cat!” declares Fognini to the empty hotel room. It does not respond. Fognini heads to the club locker room, where his coach is ready with a spray can full of T-shirt material so he Fognini can get dressed for his match.

I’m not entirely sure that Felix will take the court for this one, after withdrawing from his match against Fils with a shoulder issue. It seems like Fognini, who’s been playing fairly well but with a pronounced ceiling, will win this match if FAA is not 100%. Felix has been struggling with inconsistency and he hasn’t exactly stepped off the gas and gone push-mode in those spots. Him and Shap seem to have in common that their plan A is also their plan B, which is fine for a young talent but less than stellar for his fans during a slump. In any event, if he’s 100% physically, he should be able to outlast Fognini in 4-5. If he’s injured, I think he withdraws because his career is more valuable than a single RG. Hopefully the Fils withdrawal was just precautionary.

Kubler vs Diaz Acosta :

Excited for Diaz Acosta to get a lucky loser spot here. After a tough loss in the finals of qualifying, it seemed like a lot of hard work had gone to waste. The cutoff for the main draw was pretty low this year, but Diaz Acosta is a solid player and Ofner was just in rare form today. Kubler doesn’t seem like he should be great at clay, but he’s a hard worker and he’s basically won the matches he’s supposed to and lost the rest. This is one where he should be able to win, but playing a specialist always adds an air of mystery. Diaz Acosta has opened as a favorite, and court familiarity will definitely help, so this could wind up in a deciding set. I just don’t see Kubler getting rolled, because his game production doesn’t particularly get hindered by the slow conditions and there isn’t a technical issue that’ll prevent him from competing here. Kubler in 5.

Cressy vs Ofner :

Heck yeah. I like when the good qualifiers get rewarded. Cressy is a dangerous opponent. Huge serve, aggressive returning, but Ofner’s serve and power are good enough to equalize that on the scoreboard. His form should carry him through here, and Cressy has shown some impatience in spots where he knows he’s going to lose so his mindset here will matter. Maxime hasn’t been terribly active either, so this is a great spot for Sebastian to get a win on tour and get points that he really needs. If you want to talk about the best guy on the Challenger tour who’s never really broken through, him and Marchenko have to be up there. This season could be it for him. Ofner in 4.

McDonald vs Korda :

Another match where it’s real difficult to gauge the health of the favorite. Korda has played two matches on clay so far, both straight set exits against Grenier and Safiullin. Both were in good form, but it has become extremely difficult to get a solid read on when Korda will play his best. At his peak, he’s one of the best players on tour, and reminds me a bit of Berdych the way he generates easy power. The rest of the time, he seems like he’s made of glass and his laidback style makes his losses seem like they could have been avoided. The odds here tell a similar story. McDonald is not particularly accomplished on clay, but he’s just +170 against Korda which is effectively saying he has a 50/50 shot. I agree, but I’m hoping that Korda wakes up here. McDonald in 3-4 is the most likely outcome, but the draw looks wildly different if Korda starts winning matches.

Schwartzman vs Zapata Miralles :

This would be a spot where Zapata Miralles would be a huge favorite a few weeks ago, but now it’s starting to look more even. BZM was forced to withdraw a week ago against O’Connell down 6-0, 3-0, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100% here. Prior to this match he’d been on an exceptional run, with wins against Hurkacz, Saifullin, Evans, and McDonald. He also took a set off perennial claybot Daniil Medvedev. Diego has had the opposite season, with his wins being very rare and off the court concerns taking up most of his time (his father has been dealing with some health issues). Despite the slump, even a series of losses is matchplay, and Schwartzman has been rounding into halfway decent form.

I won’t pretend I know how BZM is feeling, so this is another “if he’s ok he wins” situation. Zapata is moving the ball better than Diego and hitting cleanly down the lines, but if you’re not 100% physically then Schwartzman’s consistency suddenly turns the match into a beat the clock situation. Schwartzman in 4-5.

Isner vs Borges :

I could really go for an Isner retirement run, but not at Roland Garros. Clay is a beautiful game and the form that people wind up in as matches go long is amazing. Jarry played the match of his life today. Stephens and Stearns played an absurdly high quality match including a tiebreaker that was almost exclusively filled with high level shotmaking and endless rallies. This match will be filled instead with angst-filled rallies and long breaks in the action between serves. Isner hasn’t been playing and shouldn’t win this match, but the guy’s serve is good enough to get him there and we’ve seen it time after time.

I want Borges to win. He’s a good prospect, with a springy game and a few hard-fought wins on tour that hint that he could move up the rankings. Nuno’s clay season has been less than stellar, but a lot of guys on tour are playing incredible right now (including the Challenger level) so it’s just hard to grab wins. Borges should wrap this up in 4 but it’s going to involve some lucky breaks in tiebreakers.

Carballes Baena vs Nava :

This one could get spicy. Emilio Nava has worked his way onto the tour, and his comeback win against Blancaneaux was another in a serious of inspired comebacks. Nava has good power and really lets it rip, but overall his game is just a bit smaller than the top 50 talents on tour. For many, this can lead to a ceiling, but Nava has shown real mettle in tough spots, and that outward exuberance can really impact the momentum in a match. It doesn’t feel feigned or manufactured, Nava is really working hard and he really gets hyped when it works out. This is a match he can steal. RCB is not at his best this season, and even when he is his opponent will get to play a ton of balls. Nava has an edge on serving, but Roberto has one of the most stable backhands you’ll ever see. It’ll take a lot of work for Nava, so it’s a perfect situation. RCB starts as the favorite, but I think it’ll be hard to close this one out. Nava in 5.

Vesely vs Tsitsipas :

Tsitsipas is reminding me a lot of Zverev lately. His choices and his attitude are holding him back, but his talent and physicality are dragging him forward. There are a lot of people trying to be social media personalities right now, and it’s sometimes difficult to watch. For a tennis pro, it can feel like a required task. Attention is something we don’t really teach our kids about in society these days, and since it gives us a little dopamine boost it’s not surprising that a somewhat sheltered athlete is awkwardly reposting instagram quotes and trying to be clever. In short, Tsitsipas has lived a life where he has constantly been praised, while also being inadvertently hurt by those that care about him. Pushing your kid to succeed is good, but when their self-worth is wrapped up in the results of their pastimes it can be a roller coaster, and I think that’s why we’ve seen the box drama and court attitude of Tsitsipas develop. Him and Rune are leading the league right now in shots aimed at the opponent at net. Perfectly fine tactic, but when it can be avoided, it should.

From listening to his press conferences, I get the sense that Stefanos thinks he’s a bit smarter than his audience, which is a product of success. If you don’t have something to humble you, it’s easy to start smelling your own farts. Maybe he’ll grow out of it, or maybe we’ll continue to be entertained. It is extremely difficult to have your life in the spotlight, and point blank not everyone’s life belongs in the spotlight. It’s good to remember that the people we don’t necessarily agree with are useful if only just to give us an example of how we might not personally want to be. Ty Stef for your service.

Long-winded shade aside, Tsitsipas should have an easy one here. Vesely is dangerous on clay and has a huge serve, but his results have been poor. He’s coming off two challenger level losses against Llamas Ruiz and Bonadio, and even though lefties have a good shot against a one-handed backhand, Tsitsipas’ serve is good enough to get him through the tough moments of early rounds. Should be one way traffic. Tsitsipas in 3.

Djokovic vs Kovacevic :

The conversation for the first few rounds is going to circle around Djokovic’s elbow. In classic Novak fashion, he has somehow arrived with what seems to be an insurmountable obstacle, but we are all left also with that gut feeling that he will just win the tournament anyway. A lot of people who play tennis will know the pain of elbow tendinitis, and while the sleeve works a bit, the usual process is to put it on, start losing, blame the sleeve, take it off, and then regret it later on. Djokovic benefits greatly from a longer format at the majors, because his overall level is very steady. He doesn’t usually redline unless the mood strikes him, and it does allow opponents to sprint past him for a bit early, but it’s really hard to mentally and physically keep up that level of offense, especially when most guys on the tour focus more on weight of shot than accuracy.

Is Novak’s elbow ok? A loss to Rune isn’t disastrous because there are times when Rune’s energy output is extremely high, and in a 2/3 that can pay dividends. Even in the Rome loss though it seemed like Djokovic was starting to level things late in the second, so I expect him to be able to navigate this event fairly well even with elbow soreness. Ice bath therapy can do wonders for inflammation, and Djokovic having fought through physical issues before is something he can draw on when he’s struggling. If it impacts his serving ability, I don’t think he can beat Alcaraz, but if he’s fine I think there’s more chance that Alcaraz struggles early than Novak. Kovacevic is doing well to get himself on tour, but he’s not a threat here. Djokovic in 3.

Fucsovics vs Grenier :

Experts have been declaring that AI is a real threat. I wasn’t terribly convinced, but I am starting to believe them after tennis robot Marton Fucsovics displayed some emotion this week. During a loss against Baez, Fucsovics took issue with the frequent celebration after his errors. I have to say, Fucsovics is not doing himself any favors trying to start problems during a loss, because your complaints almost always look like they’re connected to the L more than an actual issue. On the flipside, I’m not sure tennis players realize how soft they look celebrating points and fist-pumping and looking across the net at their opponent, when I’m pretty sure they collectively don’t want any smoke. If you constantly celebrate and try to rattle your opponent, don’t be surprised when they get rattled. Baez didn’t seem interested in Fucsovics’ anger, and he ended up netting the win so Marton’s software update didn’t work out. Celebrating is part of the game, but celebrating every point is pretty clearly something that is coached into them. Tennis etiquette also calls for players to not celebrate things like unfortunate double faults and errors; it’s supposed to be a classy sport. At the same time, Baez is struggling for wins and so is Fucsovics, so it’s not ridiculous for Baez to be really fired up throughout the match.

Fucsovics has been losing, but his level has gone up a bit, and oddsmakers have gradually been making his prices more expensive which is usually a good sign that he’s ready for a good result. Huge Grenier has a big serve and steady power, but he’s maybe a step too slow to outlast Fucsovics here. Marton doesn’t score much on his serve, and he’s classic for going to 5 sets when he doesn’t need to on paper, so this could be close, but I’d expect Fucsbot to get the win in the end. Fucsovics in 4.

Van Assche vs Cecchinato :

A month or two ago Luca Van Assche was the big name on tour. He was notching wins at the Challenger level and had success in a bunch of 250 level events he’d gotten into. Unfortunately, the tour is a difficult place to maintain success, and he’s levelled off a bit. The reverse is true for Cecchinato. A short while ago he was almost forgotten from the tour, but he’s had a productive clay season and is in decent form despite a tough loss to Wu in Geneva. This should be a close match, as Cecchinato’s power and skill make him a threat, but also somewhat inconsistent. His temperament has always needed work, and visibly emoting can sometimes inspire an opponent to play more steady, which is really what you don’t want in tennis most of the time. Van Assche is lacking in power here but he employs his own game much more efficiently and his footspeed will be somewhat of an equalizer against Marco’s power. I do think the faster Geneva courts were the reason Cecchinato lost, and Paris’ slower conditions mean that guys who can generate their own power will thrive, and Cecchinato having a big ornate swing production also means that slower conditions give him better chances. Cecchinato in 4-5.

Fils vs Davidovich Fokina :

Danger! Arthur Fils has been given a wildcard into RG, and neither player will be excited about this matchup. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina looks like if you combined David Goffin with a wheel of cheese, and since those are two wonderful things, ADF is also an amazing talent. His odds of going on a run at any major are pretty prevalent, and there are no holes in his game really. The thing that I love about his game is how he’s always looking to create. Every ball he plays is with intent to move his opponent and create difficulty and patterns in their minds. He has a great backhand down the line and his serve is pretty efficient at times even though it’s not a huge delivery. The thing I don’t love about his game is that the tour is full of grinders, and trying to supply all the offense can often leave you losing to your own percentages late in matches. By the third or fifth set, most baseliners have been played into form, so a bit more defensive approach from ADF could go a long way.

Arthur Fils is in the finals of Lyon at this moment, after two fortuitous early forfeits (Ymer DQ’d and FAA withdrawn) and solid wins against Nakashima and Zhang. Earlier in the week, futures prices for him in the quarters were at +1300. Generally the guys in the quarters who have no shot are priced a bit more in the +3000 range, so it was interesting seeing the books take a position against exposure on his side. This may have been because they were aware of FAA’s shoulder issue, and Nakashima pulling the upset against Tommy Paul really opened up the draw so TP’s recent struggles may have played a part. In any event, those odds went to +280 after the quarters which is a huge dip (though they were still +600 at some shops so always price-hunt if you insist on gambooling).

Nerdbox market analysis aside, Fils is legit. He’s fast, he has a big forehand, and he serves well. It’s the type of player who can really hurt you if you have a lapse in depth of shot, so ADF will need to focus here. I do think Fokina has a better backhand, and Fils’ run in Lyon is being assisted greatly by the two shortened days. The same way the qualifiers at a non-major wind up playing on tired legs if they win a round or two, the pace of your tennis slows down as the tournament goes. In the first round the play is so frenzied that most players can’t even impose their offense, but as fatigue sets in you see more epic matches because the physical limitations mean the tennis skill becomes more important. That’s why semis and finals are often amazing and early rounds are not terribly eye-catching. Fils is playing at a 3rd round capacity when Nakashima has been through an entire tournament, so it’s tricky to gauge how he’ll fare here. Fatigue post event is often worse on the second day, but RG is pretty good about scheduling the previous week’s finalists on the last day of the first round.

I don’t think Fils can beat ADF, but he can certainly win a set or two. He’ll have the hometown crowd support, and since he’s new on tour he’s likely to compete in these spots where he knows he’s going uphill. After a few crushing Ls people do start to mitigate their expectations, but for now Fils has to be feeling extremely confident. ADF in 4-5.

Bautista-Agut vs Wu :

This is a tricky one. RBA has done basically nothing this clay season, and Wu was expected to do nothing but has been competing his heart out and grabbing wins when he can. RBA comes in at around -240, but I think it’s closer than that. The RBA of a few seasons ago would win this in straight sets, but he’s looked almost human this year and lacking confidence can really impact your game. Wu is one of the more aggressive returners I’ve seen, so if RBA isn’t sharp he might have trouble getting into the type of rallies he can. Sometimes it’s not great to look at the lines, because you then feel like you need to paint a picture that fits into that pricing structure. I could see Wu’s aggression resulting in forced errors against RBA’s solid defending, and certainly RBA has the right shot patterns to score if he gains control of the rally. This just feels like a spot where RBA is the unknown commodity even though he’s supposed to be the favorite. RBA in 4-5.

Varillas vs Shang :

I like Shang here, but it’s tricky because he’s been producing in the qualifers and Varillas has been losing close matches on tour. Varillas has a really high intensity on court, and he’s generally won by exposing his opponent’s lateral speed. For Shang, this won’t be a problem. He’s really quick, and his technical skill on both wings is excellent. There were some moments where Olivo looked like he’d frustrate Shang, but overall the kid is ready for the tour if he gets the right draws. With Juan Pablo struggling to find momentum, this is a spot where Shang needs to focus. Being a lefty is always a big advantage, and this is an intriguing matchup (one of the ones still lagging on seeing a price from oddsmakers). Shang in 4-5.

Griekspoor vs Martinez :

Just when someone looks like they’re done, they win. It’s wild how the top 100 stays the same season after season in this way. Pedro Martinez is that sleepy child they find at the end of the day, nestled on his jacket enjoying a nice snooze aboard the struggle bus. Somehow, the RG qualifiers have woken him up, and he’s landed three wins in a row, including one against Bagnis. This is now a winnable match for him, because Griekspoor has withdrawn from a few matches lately, and Martinez’s ability to break serve is one that requires a bit of a servebot to cancel out. Tallon has a strong delivery, but he does most of his best work from the baseline. This should be close if Griekspoor is 100%, but it doesn’t seem like he is, and Martinez is finding his best tennis here. Leaning into another qualifier upset, but with Pedro there’s no chance it’ll be quick. Martinez in 4-5.

Goffin vs Hurkacz :

Nice game, nice people. A year ago Hurkacz beat Goffin in straight sets at this tournament, but that was a very different Goffin. David has struggled famously, in fact I’m not really sure how he’s still on tour. It was at Benoit Paire levels of lackluster first round losses for a while, but recently he’s been able to win a few matches. He dropped down to the Challenger tour (which I love for any struggling vet) and won a few matches in Aix en Provence, and he grabbed a win in Lyon and Rome. Hurkacz has been losing first round in each event this year, acceptably to Coric and somewhat surprisingly to JJ Wolf. It sets up a match where Goffin finding some spring in his step makes him a bit of a threat here. Hurkacz is always dangerous in a longer format because his serve is so effective and his ground game is shockingly stable for a big guy. Goffin is at his best against baseliners and when his opponent lacks power, and here there’ll be a lot of pressure on his service games which isn’t ideal since he is a bit tiny. But who made him so tiny? Well the simple answer is elves. Years ago, Goffin was travelling in the Goblin forest, doing general mischief and pulling goblin tails. The elves spotted him, and elected him king. At the time, Goffin was 8 foot 4 and weighed upwards of 10 hundred pounds, but the elves thought that would give him an unfair advantage in their basketball tournaments or something so they shrunk him.

Hurkacz should win this, but it’ll take a while. Goffin is the hot hand, but he needs Hurkacz to maintain his rust for him to get across the finish line. Goffin in 3-4 or Hurkacz in 5.

Khachanov vs Lestienne :

I’m a huge Khachanov fan, and he’s one of the few players on tour who many thought plateau’d early in his career. Happily though, he’s shown gradual improvements in the past few seasons, and his consistent production at majors has landed him as a gatekeeper but one who has looked threatening in spots. As he sheds some of the pressure to produce in the big moments, and starts to see that more big moments are to come, he may take some risks and produce some upsets. There’s nothing really missing from his game, although he tends to muscle his forehand at times rather than letting the technique do the work. Lestienne is competitive at this level, but it feels a bit like the Goffin match where he’s just the smaller guy with less options to score. Here also, Khachanov is in fine form and Lestienne is the one who’s struggling a little bit. Khachanov in 3-4.

Kypson vs Albot :

Kypson has been in the finals of a number of clay challengers in the US lately, so this should be fun. It’s a different level of event at a grand slam, and the USTA clay tour is usually a bit weaker as it contains fewer specialists on the surface unless we get some South American talent. A good gauge of Kypson’s level is his loss to Diaz Acosta, who is around Albot’s level. Radu has been solid in qualfying, seeming to run away with matches inevitably. His ability to close to net and to keep his opponent moving are his best strengths, and overall he’s one of the guys on tour who can seem to manufacture breaks of serve no matter who he’s playing. Should be close since Kypson is playing at such a high level and Albot has 7 sets played already, but the veteran should get this. Albot in 4.

Wawrinka vs Ramos :

ARV is puzzlingly rough this season. Most of the time I’d expect this to go to a deciding set because Wawrinka has a one-hander and ARV doesn’t miss, but Albert is just on a bad stretch of losses on clay which is supposed to be his best surface. Wawrinka is past his prime, but he’s still dangerous for a round or two which means this first round here is one he should run through. Awaiting ARV’s return to form is not feeling profitable lately, so I’m expecting Stan’s serve and power to dominate this against an opponent who lacks confidence and somewhat looks like your combined a #2 pencil with an owl. First rounds are always exciting because players show up in entirely different forms and resurgences upend the draw, but it feels like this is Wawrinka in 3.

Kokkinakis vs Evans :

If you know who’s going to win this, clue me in. Kokkinakis has won a handful of matches on clay, but Evans has won more high profile matches in his career on the surface. They have very distant approaches to the game, with Thanasi Kokkinakis going with the big serve big forehand approach, and skipping having a backhand. Evans has a more ornate game, with a very fluid forehand and a one-handed backhand that he generally slices endlessly. Evans for this reason winds up deep in the ad side very often in rallies, playing against the opponent’s inside out forehand. I think this gives Kokkinakis a safe target, and I worry that Evans’ lack of form lately may continue here. Kokkinakis in 4.

Shelton vs Sonego :

This should be close, but I fear Shelton is not quite ready to win this yet. Shelton has a bigger serve, and a much more stable backhand than Sonego, but his results thus far have been better than expected on clay, but not including wins. The learning curve can be steep, and Sonego is a foot on the gas type player who won’t really let you learn within the match. Definitely some liability in playing a lefty for Sonego since his backhand can struggle, but his comfort on clay is likely to give him a small edge here in a duel of big offenses. Get your Shelton Wimbledon/USO futures early, this kid is gonna be good. Sonego in 4-5.

Mannarino vs Humbert :

Just when you think someone on tour is done, they win. Mannarino is known to struggle on clay because of how flat and soft he hits the ball, but last week Krajinovic said “no, my friend, you are not alone” and threw him a win. Back to losing here I’d think. Humbert has had a long road in getting back on tour, but he won a Challenger title in Bordeaux last week that included some wins against really solid players such as Onclin and Etcheverry. Humbert in 3.

Cazaux vs Moutet :

Hard to pretend I know what Moutet will emerge from any match. He’s very easily moved by emotions and outcomes, and it doesn’t always affect his game the same way. I think he’s a good bit better than Cazaux, but Arthur has been playing decent lately and Moutet has been losing almost all his matches. Oddsmakers have set Cazaux at a pickem, which means someone somewhere who knows tennis is betting on him. Most of their intent is to balance investment while adhering somewhat to the ELO models, so when a guy who’s well-known like Moutet lands at a pickem against an unknown ranked 80 spots lower, something is slightly up. I’m hesitant to crown Cazaux here though, because Moutet tends to play his best at majors. Should be a battle. Someone in 5.

Rublev vs Djere :

You can be sure Djere is not happy about this, but he’ll do his best. Djere is really solid and hits with power, but there’s nothing that sets him apart at the next level. Rublev has a big edge in offensive creation here, and he’s had a big clay season. The angry broccoli is primed for a good run, and unfortunately for Djere this is one of the few first rounds he probably can’t win. Their clay matches have been close in the past, so I’d avoid being too specific about the outcome, but Rublev should wrap this up in 3-4.

Rune vs Eubanks :

I like that Eubanks is competing on clay, and he should give Rune a good warmup here. His game is built around big groundstrokes and aces though, and Rune’s defense and the slow conditions should make it impossible to win. Rune is one of those Rublev/Khachanov/Sinner level darkhorses right now, and it’ll be interesting if he can breeze through the early rounds and be fresh later on. Rune in 3.

Monfils vs Baez :

Monfils is back! Congrats to him and Svitolina on their baby, and on their return to the tour. Even rusty, his speed around the court makes him a tough out. His forehand is big enough to score from anywhere on the court, but this match is just about putting in work and Monfils hasn’t generally been willing to put in that work. Baez is looking to recover from a slump and he’s doing so by grinding away in every point. Monfils will have to play 3-4 hours of tennis to get through here, and I don’t think he’s there yet. Baez in 3-4.

Mpetshi Perricard vs Oliveiri :

These two played earlier this year, and Oliveiri came away with a 7-5, 7-5 win. We can expect something similar, but Oliveiri really found his best level during qualifying and the odds are that he’s going to be physically stronger in a long match since he’s a bit older. I expected him to lose to Andreev in his final match but he was able to overcome a lot of big offenses this week. Oliveiri in 3-4.

Kecmanovic vs Vavassori :

Tricky tricky tricky. Vavassori is not the guy you want to land from the qualifier group if you’re Miomir Kecmanovic. The qualifer crop has a lot of baseliners, and Kecmanovic can usually beat those. Vavassori is a server though, and he just outdueled a pretty heavy offensive threat in Tabilo so you know he’s sharp. This is a spot where you can’t really point to a winner. Kecmanovic is expected to find a way through, but there’s no guarantee that you can break a guy like Vavassori. Andrea isn’t exactly helpless in the rallies either, and being lefty helps a lot. Kecmanovic has just lost to Draper (also Fognini; really he hasn’t won much in this clay swing), and there’s a good chance that he gets upset here also. Vavassori in Vava4i.

Cerundolo vs Munar :

Tough opener for Cerundolo, who is currently in the finals of Lyon against hometown favorite Fils. Munar has struggled to really impose his will in matches, but he’s very technically sound and can make this a long match. Cerundolo at times struggles with unforced errors, and he has mounted a lot of late stage comebacks after dropping an early set. I’d expect Munar to be looking to make fitness an issue here after Ceru comes off a finals run, so this should be a solid test of Francisco’s mental state. I think he has the juice to keep going, and this is a decent section of the draw to be in since he can steal Fritz’s seed in the 3rd round. Cerundolo in 4.

Monteiro vs Bonzi :

I forgot about Bonzi. He’s one of the best 2nd tier players on the French roster, but he hasn’t played in a while, and that leaves me with fitness concerns since he’s ranked high enough (65) to get into tour events. Monteiro isn’t producing like he usually does, but he’s been active and I tend to believe in the hot hand. If I believed Bonzi was healthy, his backhand probably wins him this match. Monteiro is a classic lefty, and Bonzi having such a stable wing gives him a good equalizer. Since he hasn’t been active, I somewhat expect Monteiro to get this in the end. Monteiro in 5.

Gasquet vs Rinderknech :

There are either a lot of French players in the draw, or a lot of French players playing each other. This is winnable for either, but Gasquet has looked less than convincing physically in this stretch. He still has the ability to outlast people on hardcourt, but on clay it feels like he has trouble scoring. Rinderknech has been abysmal, but he’s won a few matches in the past two weeks and his serve and volley is likely to pay dividends as Gasquet’s legs go. Should be a tricky contest. Rinderknech in 4-5.

Mmoh vs Fritz :

Haven’t seen much of Mmoh, and Fritz is in the finals of Geneva. Fritz in 3.

Paul vs Stricker :

Stricker got surprised by Tirante in the finals of qualifying, and it’s fortuituous that there were so many late withdrawals because the lucky losers getting in somewhat deserve it. Stricker should be slated to lose to Paul the same way Vavassori could lose to Kecmanovic, but the qualifiers are sharp and the tour guys have been question marks at times. Paul has found a way to win a few matches here, so he should be able to handle this. Stricker plays a similar shot selection to Cam Norrie but his swings are more technically sound so he doesn’t have to work as hard. He doesn’t really have the power to hit through Paul for an entire match though, so I’d expect Tommy’s kick serve and forehand to become a major factor as this stretches on. Definitely one to look at oddsmakers prices for a guesstimate on what’s going to happen, as they had accurately rated Paul fairly low in his first few clay outtings despite no injury info being out there. Paul in 4-5.

Jarry vs Dellien :

This price opened at -357 which is one of Cam’ron’s best songs. After Jarry’s win against Zverev, it’ll go much higher. The Geneva conditions make everyone look like Federer. The ball flies through the air, and the court speed is really fast. Despite the boost, Jarry is also playing the best tennis of his career. His service motion looks more fluid than ever, his forehand is constantly infusing pressure, and omg when did he get a backhand? He’s leaning into his backhands and was beating Ruud from even in rallies. The backhand down the line is the shot that most big runs happen behind on tour, and Jarry is crushing his. Return winners, deft dropshots, and nonstop pace. When you get past that, he’s thumping aces that are winding up too high and wide for Zverev’s gumby-esque frame to deal with. The slow RG conditions and fatigue are Jarry’s enemies here, but Dellien will have a very stressful time in this one. Jarry in 4.

Giron vs Medjedovic :

I guess I’m just gonna pick all the qualifiers to win. Giron has been doing okay on clay, but his flat forehand is kinda nullified by the slow surface since the ball doesn’t slide much. Medjedovic was pretty much the story of the qualifier draw, upsetting J.M. Cerundolo, Gakhov, and De Jong. All three of those players had momentum and were playing well going on (not so much JM), and he stopped them all convincingly. I think he’s the favorite here against Giron, because his game is so complete. He has a good serve, but he wins by moving the ball and maintaining pressure. Giron’s backhand probably doesn’t stand up, and I think he’ll have a hard time scoring on Medjedovic. It’s a big step up in opponent, so it may still be close, but Medjedovic is a name I feel like I’ll have to get used to typing. Medjedovic in 4.

Lehecka vs Struff :

Hmm. I think Lehecka will continue to improve. His game has some mirrors to Djokovic, in that his forehand infuses pace selectively, and his spot-serving seems to be improving after arriving on tour. I’m not loving his recent results though. Losses to Marozsan, Shevchenko, and Kecmanovic are acceptable, but they’re matches you’d want him to win if he were going to make a run at RG. He withdrew from his last match in Turin, so Struff has to like his chances here. Struff has been a hero lately since his finals run in Madrid where he got very close to defeating Alcaraz. He has a huge serve and great power on both wings, and his returning has gotten a lot better this season it seems. I think this will be a tough match for him since Lehecka is a more consistent player, but if he’s not 100% then Struff will advance. Struff in 4-5.

Van De Zandschulp vs Tirante :

Botic is probably one of the most iconic second-string players on tour. If you type Botic into the gifs section in any app, you will be rewarded by a number of ridiculous tumbles and faces that you’d never expect watching him on court. He’s a very relaxed fellow, with a huge serve and a hook of a forehand that creates havok. He’s the ultimate tennis hustler, because it just never seems like he’s going to do much, but always creates a really skillful shot. Botic is a throwback to the Kohlschrieber Chardy era, and while he’s been struggling to win matches, he hasn’t been bad lately. Tirante has a shot in this match, but I think Zandschulp’s serve will help him a bit as this match drags on. Tirante was solid in qualifying, but it wasn’t really the dominating offensive performance that would help him upend a healthy Botic. First qualifier loss and it hurts to type, but a healthy BVDZ in 4.

Zhang vs Lajovic :

Clay specialists battling first round equals 5 sets. Zhang has a big serve and a heavy forehand. He’s a wall but with offensive pressure. It’s a good weapon against Lajovic, who moves the ball extremely well with time but can be handcuffed by power since he has a one-hander. I don’t think it’ll be easy for either player to control this match, and that means it’ll come down to who plays the big points better. I’m a big Zhang fan, but Lajovic might be able to outlast him because he does telegraph his shots a bit. Slight edge to the veteran. Lajovic in 5.

Bublik vs Zeppieri :

QUALIFIERS RIDE AGAIN! Zeppieri was the class of the field in qualifying. He was a heavy favorite in every match and he produced. It’s the type of play that you need against Bublik’s serving, but Bublik has not been winning many matches lately. He’s a showman, and we’ll get that here, but it’s hard to survive against a guy who’s playing well, serving well, and who’s more motivated for the win than you. Expecting Bublik errors and Zeppieri hustle to produce the upset here. Zeppieri in 3-4.

Ruud vs Ymer :

Ruud may have lost to Jarry while defending his title in Geneva, but he rounded into some of the best form he has in a while. Elias Ymer would have a shot against the struggling Casper, but here it seems like the king of clay .... 250s .... is primed for a deep run once again. Hanfmann seemed to run out of gas finally after a profitable couple of weeks, and Ymer was sharp in qualifying and earned his spot here. It’s good to see him breaking onto the tour also, and coming through qualifying is always a really tough test so he should be proud of himself. Ruud should have ample chances to break here, since Ymer is a baseliner first. Ruud’s forehand was looking sharp against Jarry and playing in those fast conditions is a good prep for RG as it boosts all your opponents offenses. I don’t think this will be completely one-sided as well as Ymer is playing, but Casper seems to be finding form at the right time, which is not terribly surprising since him and his team have a very professional approach. Ruud in 4.

Sinner vs Muller :

I wonder if we’ll get the usual down 2 sets Jannik Sinner first round here, or if he’ll be ready right out of the gate. Muller is a guy who will produce his game here even against a big-name opponent, but he’s also someone that can’t really deal with Sinner from the baseline for a full match. Should be a good look at where Sinner’s focus is at. Sinner in 3-4.

Altmaier vs Huesler :

Altmaier is supposed to win this. His best results on tour have been on clay, and he’s in good form. That all doesn’t mean a lot to a guy with Huesler’s offense though. He hits a bit flatter than you want to on clay, but Huesler has a really big serve and a laser of a forehand. I think this is a spot where Altmaier’s team need to prep him to understand that he’s going to lose a set or two to ethereal tennis, but if he keeps grinding he can win. It’s the same formula that Wu managed to defeat Huesler with. This has 5 sets written all over it, but Huesler’s aggressive offense can also bite him in the Huesler if he gets frustrated by the scoreline. I believe in Altmaier, but I don’t think he gets there without some stress and one-handers against lefties can always be a grind. Altmaier in 5.

Ruusuvuori vs Barrere :

Another solid contest. Ruusuvuori is the younger player here, he’s had more successes on tour, but he’s playing a guy whose form indicates that he can win a set against anybody. Gregoire’s backhand is so solid, and he’s moving the ball cleanly with his forehand. The most important thing for him I think is how many matches he’s playing. It’s hard not to be sharp in the big moments when you’ve been playing the big moments. Trouble for Barrere to win outright comes because Ruusuvuori can be played into form very easily. He doesn’t hold serve efficiently, but he turns into a wall at times and the pace on his shots can be very fatiguing to deal with. I’m expecting Barrere to win at least one set, but to lose the war in the end. Ruusuvuori in 4.

Dimitrov vs Skatov :

Good win for Skatov against Melgeni Alves. His left thigh was a bit injured at the end of his previous round, but he fought through it. Skatov has a big serve and nice power on his groundstrokes. His stamina has also been decent this week in deciding sets which is promising. Normally I’d like Skatov for the upset here, and he certainly will try for it, but Dimitrov is somehow playing well this week, making the finals in Geneva. I don’t think his fitness will be an issue after a few days off, especially since Geneva is ultra-fast which means fewer rallies. Dimitrov is a gentle fool of a tactician, but these are the types of matches that the good Dimitrov gets through. Grigor in 3-4.

Zverev vs Harris :

If you want a darkhorse candidate for a major title this year it’s Zverev. He looks a bit more emotionally focused in his comeback to the tour, and he’s worked through the rust at this point. I saw bright points today against Jarry, and although Zverev was confused on why he was losing he did play pretty solid. He was gesturing to his box about the height and location of Jarry’s serve. Him, Tiafoe, Fritz, and a handful of other junior phenoms seem to have this issue where they are shocked that opponents play above their base level at times. It’s a real barrier to improvement, because the moments when you’re getting beat down on tour are the times where you can throw yourself wholeheartedly at the task and develop new skills. The first time you make a great get, you don’t put the ball back in play, you stumble and make poor contact. It takes reps at max capacity to get good in those spots, and complaining about reality doesn’t alter it. Accept the way things are, and you are free to begin changing them. You also give your opponent free coaching in the match by giving them an insight into what tactics and elements are bothering you.

Zverev complaints aside, he’s in good form and he’ll be fresh for this event. Harris is back on tour, but he’s not playing that great. Zverev should win this in 3-4, and it’s fresh in my mind that he was fairing well against Nadal before he injured his ankle. This is a kid that was slated to win major titles before fame, wealth, and his ego got in the way. A humbling thing like almost losing it all can have positive effects. We’ll see this week.

Gaston vs Molcan :

The hero of Paris returns. A cross between Liam Hemsworth and a magical cupcake, Hugo Gaston has treated us to some of the most memorable matches in RG history and we don’t even have to wait for the second week for them. I don’t care how many times Gaston loses, I absolutely love watching someone dropshot every single return. It’s wildly entertaining tennis, and it can take the legs away from an opponent. So with a guy like Molcan, who’s struggled with cramps and fitness issues in the past, there is a slight hope for Gaston here. Unfortunately for Hugo, this is a first round and the weather this week in Paris looks beautiful. Molcan is in way better form, and Gaston is relying on wildcards here, but either way we’ll be treated to an exciting match. Molcan in 4.

Popyrin vs Karatsev :

There are a lot of less than stellar matchups in the first round, so this one almost seems unfair. Popyrin has gotten himself going this season, and the former French Open junior champ has won a number of matches he’d normally lose. Improved fitness gives him a good shot here against Karatsev, who was pretty bad at times this year but is finding his best tennis on clay. Overall, I think Karatsev wins if it’s about whose head is shaped more like a basketball, but if it’s about whose head is shaped more like a football, I think Popyrin has it. The serving battle is pretty close, and Popyrin is a bit faster, but Karatsev has a better backhand generally. Hard to point to an outright winner here, but Popyrin’s wins have been at a slightly higher tier so he may be the more dangerous player here. Popyrin in 4-5.

Krajinovic vs Tiafoe :

Good match for Tiafoe to start. Krajinovic is really good on clay, but only occasionally. He’s been struggling this year, and it’s not ideal to speculate but partying rumors had surrounded some of his early career losses so there’s a chance he’s just not 100% focused on tennis. This is fine, because Tiafoe has been working hard on his game and he’ll be looking to avenge himself after a tough loss to Musetti that involved rain delays. A lot of flak went Tiafoe’s way for complaining to the umpire, but the truth is that Rome was looking to get through the volume of matches, and the overall attitude of the event/umpires seemed to be “see if you can get them to keep playing”. While this attitude prevailed, and may have been necessary, playing tennis in the rain is somewhat scary since the lines can get slick and there’s a whole entire Roland Garros coming up the next week. The flip side is, tennis players are soft, and any excuse is going to become a big deal once an impending loss starts to loom in their mind.

Tiafoe should win here. His serve is effective even on clay, and I really like his forehand production in an environment where generating your own power is necessary. Krajinovic is a tough test, but one that Tiafoe should get through. Tiafoe in 4.

Coric vs Coria :

Coric has been solid lately, and Coria has been losing every match. He can wake up and become a wall, and his pedigree on clay can’t be challenged, but they seem like their careers are heading in two different directions. Hoping Coric can win so he can get a haircut. Borna in 3.

Thiem vs Cachin :

I really don’t know who wins this, and I really do know who I want to win this. The tour is just infinitely better with Dominic Thiem playing good ball, but he hasn’t really shown more than glimpses of it. He’s clearly working on a comeback, so the unforced errors aren’t an issue, but it took him several seasons to become a top talent the last time, so I don’t have my hopes up. Cachin is capable of winning this, because he’s the more consistent player right now. It’s weird to be unsure what form your opponent will arrive in though, and he may have to reset mentally if Thiem starts out redlining. I’m expecting a very close match, but Thiem hasn’t shown the ability to close out matches, so Cachin’s fitness could be an edge. Cachin in 5.

Draper vs Etcheverry :

This is another close match. Draper played well this past week in Lyon, losing in 3 to Cerundolo after a few wins. It’s a good sign, because Cerundolo is a much higher tier than Etcheverry, but I worry that Draper’s fitness is not good enough to go the distance here. Etcheverry plays very steady, and hits the ball heavy on every swing. He’s going to drag this out, so it’s really a sprint for Draper here. If he can win the first two sets, I think he can get there, but if Etcheverry wins one of the first three I think he gets the match. Draper in 3 or Etcheverry in 5.

Ivashka vs De Minaur :

Sometimes your flat hitting just isn’t working out. But that’s what friends are for, and here comes De Minaur to show Ivashka that it can work! C’mon Ivashka! We’re going on an adventure! Unfortunately, only one person can win here. Neither game is that well suited to clay, but De Minaur is likely to get through here. Ivashka can be a really tough out, but he’s been struggling lately and De Minaur is pretty good at beating lower ranked players. De Minaur in 4.

Nishioka vs Wolf :

J.J. Wolf has produced good results on clay, and I am starting to see why. He has the right forehand production for it, and his serve bends nicely which is a good second option on hardcourt, but a great reliable offering on clay. He’s fast and he moves his backhand down the line nicely when it’s open. It translates to a guy who can win matches in the early rounds against the specialists. Nishioka is probably up to the task here but he hasn’t won any matches recently and Wolf’s attitude is a lot better than his on court. When I started reviewing the draw I had Nishioka advancing but it feels like Wolf is going to be slightly more able to create offense here. Nishioka could outlast him, but unforced errors haven’t been what caused Wolf to lose lately, he’s just been beaten by higher tier opponents in good matches. Wolf in 4-5.

Purcell vs Thompson :

Purcell has played 1 match and lost. Thompson has played no matches. The winner of Wolf and Nishioka is getting a gift here. Purcell in 4.

Halys vs Pella :

Pella is really struggling to win. I like his upside because he has turned in some great performances, but a guy with a chronic foot injury is going to have a hard time when his effort was his best attribute. Halys should be able to serve his way through this and benefit from Pella’s inconsistency. Halys in 3-4.

Seyboth Wild vs Medvedev :

Maybe a month or two ago I noticed that Thiago was actually winning matches. He spent a long time struggling to find motivation and generally moped it up on the court, so him winning made me suspect he had a plan. He kept grinding, and eventually flew to Europe. I really like that he’s taking another shot at the tour, because the only thing lacking from him making the top 100 is him putting in the daily boring effort. It was a great win in qualifying for him to beat Koepfer, and there’s no reward here because he plays Medvedev, but it’s a chance for him to be on the mainstage and put on a good show. He’s capable of it. He has easy power, great skill, and a fiery attitude. I hope he digs in, because it’ll be worth it for him to hear the crowd cheer even when he’s enduring a loss. Medvedev in 3-4.