2023 Australian Open ATP & WTA Round Two Day 1

ATP Singles

Nadal vs McDonald :

It feels odd to say that the McDonald Nakashima match was better than the Nadal Draper one, but that was kind of the case. Nadal is the master of heading into events with expectations low and physical ability in question, but he backed up those rumors with his round one performance. He can’t seem to hit through the court with these balls (the court looked pretty slow in general which is odd because most of the AO courts are lightning fast), he struggled to change direction and take the ball down the line, and there were a lot of really bad errors. While playing what seemed like the worst match he’s played in his career, he somehow still looked like his inevitable self as far as the results. Draper was dangerous but his legs started to wobble in the third set. The announcers spotted it quickly and Draper called for the trainer a point later. At this point, Nadal broke and it seemed like Draper’s best play was to get some fluids in him and regroup for the fourth. Somehow he broke back though, and it was a pretty even contest even with Jack’s physical issues.

Nadal pretty clearly knew the equation to win at that point, and he kept the ball in play enough on defense to earn errors. He doesn’t seem automatic to do that though. His movement doesn’t look free from pain, and he takes the tiny extra steps when changing direction that metatarsal pain will force you to take. It will still take a good performance to beat him, but that is a downgrade from the monumental offensive performance it usually does. I don’t see him getting past Medvedev, but another match or two against baseliners may play him into form. He doesn’t prefer these balls, but it is just a timing adjustment and strategy shift, and him and his camp have been great at that over the years. Mackie McDonald and Nakashima played a marathon 5 setter which lasted 4 hours, and in the end Nakashima’s comeback just left him a bit too tired to get through the fifth. It sets up an interesting clash. If McDonald had won in straights, I’d almost like him to beat Rafa here. I’m not taking anything away from McDonald, but it’s more about Nadal’s visible struggle with the conditions than anything else. He pushed against Draper, and won because Draper’s body is just not strong enough for 3/5 set tennis yet.

McDonald has a puncher’s chance to be competitive here, but his offense is not the type that will yield quick points. He also has to be dealing with the adrenaline/euphoria dump that winning a marathon match can bring. We go to Disneyland emotionally after winning, and it’s hard to get that hunger back immediately for the next match. I do think Mackie can make this close, but how many times have we seen Nadal or Djokovic struggle in round one and then play fine in the next one. I’m keeping an eye on Nadal’s movement and timing, but he should probably win this in 3-4.

Svrcina vs Nishioka ;

DALIBOR IS INEVITABLE! If you like little fellows with tons of dropshots, then DALIBOR FANSHIP is inevitable. Svrcina got a very fortuitous draw with Munar, but he played a lot of solid offense in this match. He took Munar’s time away, and it paid dividends as Jaume racked up errors. This is a much tougher opponent for Svrcina, and it’s probably the end of the road. I made a big deal about Nishioka’s frustrations with the umpires/line judges in the past week, but it was pretty smooth sailing against Ymer. Dalibor’s dropshots are really well executed, but Yoshihito is pretty quick and he is a lot more durable on defense than Munar on hardcourt. Svrcina being new and young means he will likely continue to improve, but this is a spot where winning a single set is a good result for him. Nishioka in 3-4.

Khachanov vs Kubler :

Khachanov got broken serving for the first set, and fans were likely expecting him to have another marathon. He won the set though, and rolled through the next two easily. Next up is a challenging opponent that I think is a solid warmup for Khachanov. Kubler had a winnable match against Baez and took care of business. He was aggressive but measured, and took care of his serve well. Jason will need a lot of crowd support for this one, because Karen’s serving his improved a bunch in the past season and he seems to be steadily (but slowly) improving over time. He hits bigger on both wings and his backhand is a lot better than Jason’s. This just feels like two different weight classes meeting, and I expect Khachanov to slowly break down Kubler. Khachanov in 4.

Tiafoe vs Shang :

Solid performance from both these guys in round one. Tiafoe lost an unlucky tiebreaker against Altmaier but he closed out anyway. Gone are the days where Tiafoe wobbles just because the road is tough, and it’s a welcome addition to the tour to have him as a big presence at majors. Shang got the benefit of Otte’s slump, but a win in 4 for a teenager is a great result and the points will help him towards getting off the Challenger tour. I like how solid Shang is from the baseline, and his serve has some decent speed. Tiafoe is a big step up though, and I think it might be a situation where Shang’s consistency isn’t a theme because Tiafoe’s offense can be so big. The route to beating Tiafoe is to be able to trade power and break down his backhand, and I don’t see Shang winning the long exchanges. This’ll be a good look at how focused Tiafoe is here, as Shang isn’t really a huge perceived threat but he does play within himself enough to win the sets that are given. Tiafoe in 3-4.

Hurkacz vs Sonego :

Pretty good play from Hurkacz in round one, and this is a very winnable round two. Sonego’s serve was the difference against Borges, who managed to win the third set but really never looked like he was a threat in this match. Sonego has a pretty solid cheering section in Australia which is cool, and they could play a small part since Hurkacz tends to be pretty reserved. Sonego’s dropshots and forehand combo is pretty effective, and it should be more so against Hurkacz since he’s a taller fellow. I do expect this to be pretty close within set scores, since Hurkacz has a tremendous serve as well and good skill from the baseline. If we’re just looking at things in a vacuum, Sonego’s backhand is lacking. He also throws in more cheap errors than Hurkacz in general since he plays a more aggressive style. Overall, it should be close and heading into the match, it’s hard not to expect Hurkacz to be a little bit better. Sonego won the last two hardcourt meetings though, so I think the -400 pricetag attached to Hubert is a bit too expensive to be worth it. Hurkacz in 4-5.

Daniel vs Shapovalov :

Lajovic was up a set and a break against Shapovalov, but the swing for the fences strategy eventually paid off and Denis won in 4 sets. Overwhelming your opponent with pressure is a good plan, and it’s likely the ideal strategy against Taro Daniel. Daniel is through after a 4 set win against big-hitter Escobedo. He’ll have stretches here where he wins since he’s so solid on defense and is a good big match player, but he’s working with smaller weapons and Shapo’s offense is a big more reliable since he’s packed on some muscle. He still is a little too excited out there, but execution always improves if you’re stronger. Shapovalov in 4. Scary if he wins this in 3, because this is the type of opponent he always struggles against.

Korda vs Watanuki :

Despite not playing much tennis recently, Garin put up a great fight against Korda. I usually point to deep court position as a contributor to losses, but Korda seems to have a sweet spot a few feet behind the baseline. He hits a heavy ball, but the depth he’s getting on his backhand lately is what’s really doing the job. For me, he’s in the top ten right now as far as form. Everything is firing, and he comes into this match as a solid favorite. Watanuki is not Garin though, so this will likely require 4 sets at least. Watanuki has been grinding the Challenger tour with great success, and he was clinical against Rinderknech in round one. He knew he was in a good spot, and he played hard for every single moment of the match. You don’t usually see Rinderknech get into racquet smashing territory, but he almost pulled the trigger a number of times. I’d be scared to make any specific predictions (things like the under or giving a spread) right now as well as Watanuki is playing, but he has been stuck on the Challenger tour for a reason. He does everything well, but Korda has a huge serve, and his forehand earns errors on routine shots at times. Expect Watanuki’s aggression and pace to keep him even in chunks of this, but Korda to pull away late. Korda in 4.

Medvedev vs Millman :

Medvedev is one of the only huge favorites to advance easily on the first day, and when you talk about slow balls that are good for flat hitters on fast courts, it’s easy to expect big things from him. Millman scored a gutsy comeback against Huesler which was largely about him being more physically strong in the fifth set. I don’t he can hang here, but he’s such a likable dude that I hope he enjoys it. Medvedev in 3.

Tsitsipas vs Hijikata :

Tsitsipas outperformed expectations in round one. Halys is a solid offensive talent, but Tsitsipas has brought his good United Cup form to Melbourne. This is another style of challenge, but one he should be up for. Hijikata was down and out against Hanfmann, but he was one of a handful of matches yesterday where players just ran out of gas in a 5th set. This is a great result for him and a solid chance to showcase his skill on a big stage. It doesn’t seem like Hijikata will have the pace to really bother Tsitsipas, but he should be able to push him in a set or two. Tsitsipas in 3.

Van De Zandschulp vs Griekspoor :

Despite an extended layoff, Ivashka played decent in round one. Botic had to dig pretty deep at times, but his fans know nothing is ever straightforward with him. In the past few seasons, Griekspoor is either playing tremendous ball, or can’t win a set. He’s entered into a good stretch here and I think this is a very even contest. Botic has a bigger serve but Griekspoor is looking more stable off the ground. His footwork is a bit better than Botic’s also. With Goatic’s offensive ability and experience and Griekspoor’s consistent power, I don’t see a way for this to end quickly. Given Ivashka’s rust and success, I do lean slightly towards Tallon winning this. Griekspoor in 5.

Harris vs Fucsovics :

Another very close contest here. Harris won a Challenger and followed that up with a pretty good upset of Musetti in 5 sets. Fucsovics opened as a -625 favorite against Coria, but no one bothered to tell Coria. His returning was hyper aggressive and he kept Fucsovics moving throughout. It was a weird comeback, with Marton playing possum from way behind the baseline but pumping his fist and nodding at his box like he was crushing it. Overall, it’s a bad sign if you’re getting bossed around by Coria on hardcourt, and Fucsovics could have lost the match a handful of times. I like Harris’ chances for that reason. He has a great first serve, and a heavier forehand than Coria. He also just beat a guy who’d be expected to beat Fucsovics. These guys are having the same season basically. Both are off tour but shouldn’t be. Both play too defensive considering how big their games can be and how skilled they are (Fucsovics is a highlight reel when he goes big), and both just won a Challenger and played a 5 setter. It just felt like Fucsovics’ 5-setter was a bad situation and Harris’ was a great sign. Small edge to Harris in my mind but I’m expecting a close match. Harris in 4-5.

Etcheverry vs Sinner :

Etcheverry had a great win in round one, beating qualifier stalwart Gregoire Barrere in 4. He’s started off the week playing well, and had a good match with Kubler a week ago where he lost by a single break. Trouble here is that he’s been winning by hitting the fuzz off the ball, and Sinner is one of the best on tour at trading power. Sinner had a slow start against Kyle Edmund but rolled from there. Kyle should spend some time grinding Challengers; he’ll get wildcards into ATP events obviously, but he just seems to need matchplay because his strokes are still there but his consistency isn’t. It’s hard to quantify (in a betting sense) that a match won’t be close, but the rallies will be solid. That’s what I expect here. Sinner in 3-4. I’d say 3 but he’s proven to just kinda stay the course when he’s missing and I know dropping a set isn’t a huge concern to him in this format.

Norrie vs Lestienne :

Injury concerns were set aside for Lestienne, as he scored a solid straight sets win against Monteiro. Norrie looked pretty bad for the first set against Van Assche, but eventually he was able to squeak through the tiebreak and the confidence/cushion gave opened his game up. These conditions seem good for him, and this opponent is one that Cam will get to play a ton of rallies with. They played a 3-setter in 2021, and I wouldn’t be surprised given Norrie’s early struggles this year to win easily if he dropped a set to Lestienne. Having just played another lefty will help also. Norrie has reached a stage in his career where we just expect him to beat all lower ranked players, so it’s hard to pick anything here but Norrie in 3-4. The -900 pricetag for him is ridiculous though; I don’t honestly think anyone can beat those kind of pricepoints, nor are there profits enough in playing them to be worth incurring the risk. The stress you experience while watching a bet has a non-zero impact on your life and your health. It ain’t worth it.

Eubanks vs Lehecka :

I thought Lehecka would be competitive, but I never really expected him to just roll through Coric. In Coric’s defense, he did request the trainer a few times and seemed to be having back issues. Lehecka has now beaten Coric and Zverev this season, and he’s favored to get another win here. Chris Eubanks served incredibly against Kwon, and he also hit some huge groundstrokes when he needed them. There was one backhand in particular in the fifth set that just absolutely was ripped in a huge pressure moment and as he turned to the camera, you could tell that he was in the zone. Kwon may have been a bit fatigued after his title, but Eubanks has really made strides in his game and more importantly in his ability to produce in the big stages. He’ll have a decent chance here against Lehecka, but I think he’ll have a very difficult time breaking. Lehecka saved 6/7 break points against Coric and he returned admirably. He plays at a pretty solid pace and he’s going to be fresher than Eubanks, whose 6’7” frame has just played 3 hours of adrenaline fueled tennis. I don’t know if Lehecka can shut out a guy with such a good serve, but he should be able to outlast him. Lehecka in 4-5.

Cerundolo vs Moutet :

Gift of a draw for Cerundolo, as Pella is not really the same guy he was when he was active on tour. Moutet had a much tougher time, as he wound up in a 5 set battle with Wu Yibing. There was a great deal of mumbling from Moutet in this one. To himself, to his box, to the crowd, to the umpire, and though he stops short of talking to his opponent, it’s a bit disrespectful overall to act so upset that you’re not winning. Brand new meeting for these two, and while Moutet seems to be in better form Cerundolo has proven that his hardcourt game is there when he needs it. I think his forehand will need to be a big factor here for him to win, but it’ll be tough. Moutet is extremely fast and Cerundolo might have a tough time scoring off his backhand. Good chance that Corentin is slightly better here, but it feels less than stellar to doubt Cerundolo since he’s really done more on tour than Moutet in only a short amount of time and with way less hardcourt experience. Moutet in 4-5.

Auger-Alliassime vs Molcan :

I’m a bit surprised that Wawrinka played this event. His knee looked visibly injured, and I guess he may have wanted to play some more events before getting surgery but it seems to be headed that way. Molcan did well to hang in, and he kept the ball high and basically looked to outlast Wawrinka. When Stan finally blinked, Alex opened up a bit and hit some really innovative overhand backhands down the line during their high volleys. It looked like the Molcan who exploded onto the tour and outgrinded a ton of players, but his best is likely second best here. Felix dropped the first set 6-1 which was surprising, but … I guess … anything …. is Pospisil

Pause for groans

Felix has too much pace and power to lose to Molcan, and Alex really got lucky to have Wawrinka in poor health in the first round. I don’t see this as being close, even if Molcan wins a set. FAA in 3-4.

WTA Singles

Swiatek vs Osorio :

Niemeier played really well against Swiatek, and if she gets some lighter draws in the future she’ll be making deep runs at majors. There’s nothing missing from her game and she also has huge power. The dropshots she came up with had Swiatek scrambling, and I’d really say it’s a compliment to Swiatek’s overall level that she wasn’t able to win the second set. Jule played great, but it almost seemed necessary for her to be redlining in order to maintain control. Once Swiatek has her opponent on the run, she wins. Osorio will be happy with the second round appearance, but this is a tough position. She wins with good consistent play from the baseline and retrieving, and Swiatek is well equipped to deal with that. Swiatek in 2.

Bucsa vs Andreescu :

Lys can really play, so this was a bit better than Bucsa’s normal “drop the first and win in three” performance. She’s pretty light, but she hits the ball a ton and the ability to find the next offensive shot when she’s in a rhythm is worth a lot in a mental game like tennis. This is a spot where she’ll need to elevate her game early, because Andreescu tends to improve as the match goes on. I’d say Bucsa could win a set if Bianca loses focus, but it’s somewhat unrealistic since Andreescu hits bigger, is more experienced, and has some Andy Murray like defending when she needs it (find me a better defensive lob on the WTA). Beating Bouzkova in two is a great sign for the former champ, and the heat rule will keep her playing in ideal conditions. Andreescu in Andreesc2.

Rybakina vs Juvan :

Janicevic had her chances against Kaja Juvan but she made a few too many errors in points she didn’t need to force shots in. Small margins lead to big changes in momentum in tennis and Janicevic ended up notching only 1 game in the deciding set. Juvan has good power and her and Rybakina should have some entertaining rallies. Elena has been playing at the top tier for at least a year now though, and in some ways Juvan is trying to get her confidence back. Juvan did beat her in their previous meeting in 2016 at Trofeo Bonfiglio, but that’s a junior event and it’s not ideal to count those since one of these players has won Wimbledon since then. Rybakina in 2.

Muchova vs Collins :

Scary first round for Collins who arrived in Melbourne with her entire knee reconstructed with tape and played for two hours against Kalinskaya. In the end, as it usually is, Collins rose to the occasion. She’s a tremendous competitor and her backhand returns are the best on tour. No reward here, but not the toughest match ever either. Muchova is rehabbing an abdominal injury that occurred last March, but she’s starting to look like her old self. I thought Tsurenko would beat her due to rust, but Muchova was in control for much of this match. Karolina plays at her own pace, and it seems like when the matches tighten up her variety and willingness to hit with good contact rather than force the ball to the open court makes her tough to play against. This is something Federer/Gasquet and some other top ATP pros do that makes them really difficult to play against. Trying to score with every swing is fine, but it makes you fairly readable and tends to leave you playing at a single speed. If you play at one speed, and your shots are telegraphed, you tend to play your opponent into form.

Collins should win this, but I would be very nervous guessing how. Muchova has been an easy prediction during her slump, but at her best she can win a grand slam. Danielle will want to get an early lead and keep the pressure on, as Muchova with a lead will open up a bit. I’d guess, as usual, Collins will also want to keep this a backhand to backhand exchange, as Muchova has a lot more shape on her forehand and is able to change directions well. Should be a great match, and oddsmakers making Muchova only +130 when she’s ranked 80ish spots lower is enough to make me avoid it. Collins in 3.

McNally vs Baindl :

Caty McNally may mostly be known for her doubles play with Gauff, but she’s getting pretty solid in singles also. She has a lot of power, and keeps her composure on the court. Those two things are a rare combo in tennis. To me, it signals that her offense isn’t fake or overly optimistic. When she misses, she knows the adjustment to make, or knows that the shots will come. She’ll need a lot of shots in this next match, as Baindl (formerly Kozlova if anyone is unfamiliar with her) is one of the better defensive marathoners on tour. The match is basically on McNally’s racquet, but it can be a big mental hurdle to supply all the offense.

I don’t think anyone at the lower tier is getting past Baindl quickly, so I expect this to be close or go to a third. McNally being able to hit through the court will be a good weapon though, and her doubles experience means she’ll close to net when she needs to which is really important against a defensive player. McNally in 3.

Bondar vs Ostapenko :

These two arrived here in similar style. Not appearance wise, as only one of them has decided to dress like one of those 14$ hipster cupcakes, but game wise. Ostapenko just blitzed Yastremska, and her first serve win percentage was around 80 for the match. Bondar had a tougher contest with Bogdan and needed 3 sets, but she hit 8 aces and 38 winners. There are ATP matches at majors where players don’t hit 38 winners. Ostapenko should win this, but if she gives up an easy break this could easily end up in a third set as powerful as Bondar’s offense is. The x-factor here I would guess is Bondar’s movement. She prefers clay as her power is there but her lateral movement isn’t the quickest. I think Ostapenko will be able to hold serve fairly easily as a result, but I also thought Bogdan would expose Bondar’s movement so I am clearly a muppet. Ostapenko in 2 close sets.

Zheng vs Pera :

If you’ve ever seen the video of the two fish spitting sand at each other from their burrows, this was a bit how the Zheng match felt, but subtract one fish. Galfi kept trying to get started, but Zheng just applied more pressure at every turn. Her hitting is so clean, and if you’re looking for a dark-horse for a major championship she’s basically it. Pera should be an easy match for her, but Zheng’s record against lefties is not so great. I only dug back a year, but she lost to Fernandez, Kerber, and Kvitova. All solid players, but Zheng doesn’t hav that many losses so it’s something to consider. I don’t see how it will happen though. Zheng is too solid and Pera’s timing can go. 3 sets wtih Uchijima is understandable but not the “beating Zheng” type of performance. Zheng in 2 or 3 if the lefty curse is a thing.

Raducanu vs Gauff :

This will garner a lot of attention from the press, and rightfully so. If you’re looking for the future, these are two very promising players. I don’t think it’s going to be that close though. Raducanu has really struggled post-USO. With injuries, with staffing, and with confidence and focus. She seems better to start this season, but Gauff is operating at a higher level and there are no question marks surrounding her game currently except some slight concerns about her forehand technique. Raducanu’s forehand actually is firing well for the first time in a long time (she had some wrist issues) so this should be good quality even if it’s one-sided in the scoreline as I expect. Gauff just seems like she’s been through the wars in the past year and is continuing to improve, while Raducanu is looking for a handhold while climbing the same mountain she already climbed. Gauff in 2.

Pegula vs Sasnovich :

Pegula looks a bit fitter and stronger at this event than she ever has, which is scary because she was already one of the more durable athletes on tour. Sasnovich moves the ball extremely well, but there’s a power disparity here that I think will keep her from really playing her best. Even if Pegula devolves into pushmode, she still has enough experience playing deep behind the baseline to frustrate Sasnovich. Pegula in 2.

Gadecki vs Kostyuk :

Great win for Gadecki to beat a surging Kudermetova (P), but this is probably the end of the road. Kostyuk has been temperamental in the past and full of unforced errors, but it’s pretty clear she trained hard in the offseason and her results are showing it. A win in straights against Anisimova is a great sign, and she should have the offensive edge in this matchup. Kostyuk in 2.

Krejcikova vs Burel :

Krejcikova scored a nice win over her compatriot Sara Bejlek in two sets. The difference in weight of shot was clear in this one, and Krejcikova finding some consistency is a welcome thing for the tour. Next is a winnable match against Clara Burel, but Burel has been winning a lot of matches so I’m not so sure this will be straightforward. Burel famously beat Rybakina in the USO after her Wimbledon win, and she’s still in the stage of her career where she’s improving and growing. Krejcikova has a slightly better serving game, and a stronger backhand, so she should be comfortable here, but Burel is a baller and any lapse from Barbora will be pounced upon. Honestly, I tried to sell the upset but I can’t. Krej is still not the same player she was but she’s won a ton of matches lately. Krejcikova in 2-3.

Kalinina vs Kvitova :

This is probably the best match of the second round. Kvitova is played some great tennis and has just enjoyed a solid win against Van Uytvanck. Kalinina is the best offense visually on tour for me right now. Her game is smooth and her shots are huge. She definitely has a good enough serve to bother Petra, whose huge swings can be effective but can also lose range. Kvitova’s resurgence here is good, but I’m a bit inclined to think that Kalinina has been playing more tennis than her, and will be a little bit sharper in baseline rallies. She had a solid win against Vandeweghe in round one, and this will be a server’s battle so it’s really hard to point to anyone dominating the match. I think Kalinina is a little more defensively stable. Kalinina in 3.

Keys vs Wang :

Keys played her usual tennis in round one against Blinkova, losing her serve often and spraying errors. The lights-out Keys is a rare sight, but her hanging on in a tough match is also. It makes me think that she’ll win her second round against Wang, who is a bit more offensively capable thank Blinkova but not as consistent. Wang bested Storm Hunter in two close sets, but I watched her lose to Kenin to open the year and I didn’t see the sort of consistent play that really lets you put Keys away. Madison will have chances, and will likely pull away. If she keeps winning, at some point Keys will find her next gear. For now, Keys in 3.

Podoroska vs Azarenka :

Podoroska played as well as she has in years against Jeanjean. I don’t think it was solid enough to beat Azarenka, but she’ll acquit herself well in baseline rallies here. Azarenka had a ridiculously tough opener in Kenin, who’s really finding her best level again, but Vika is just an excellent match-player. It might just be a glitch, but I’ve noticed she catches her ball toss on the big points. This is pretty unsettling to an opponent, as tennis players think they need to do a little shuffle and reset their footwork when this happens. You’re basically turning your opponent into Nadal without them knowing. Spoiler alert, it is not the routine that makes Nadal good at tennis. Having to reset after a caught toss just adds more thoughts to the situation, and if you’re turning your attention to thought, you’re turning it away from the present moment. Namaste lmao. Azarenka in 2.

Teichmann vs Zhu :

I’m not sure what to expect here. Zhu was much better than usual in her first round, in both her shot selection and her pace. Marino also seemed to struggle with her timing, but some of that credit goes to Zhu hitting the ball so solid. I would give Zhu a decent chance here, since Teichmann lost their previous meeting in 3. Why does Teichmann start as the favorite? WELL IM GLAD YOU ASKED. She had a solid run at Adelaide, only losing to Collins who basically can beat anyone on tour. Her forehand is firing well, and that’s where she’ll need to win this one. IF TEICHMANN IS PLAYING SO WELL HOW COME ZHU HAS A CHANCE? I DONT KNOW. Or do I? I don’t. I would have Marino heading to a third but losing against Teichmann, so Zhu upending her fairly routinely makes me nervous. Zhu’s style also is a very consistent baseline approach, and she keeps the ball over the low part of the net almost always. The result is, you’re not really in any trouble against her, but it’s also tough to create. Teichmann is patient and not the hugest hitter, and tends to really win her matches with her footspeed and by breaking down her opponents backhand. Should be close. Tiechmann in 3.

Shnaider vs Sakkari :

Sakkari is a massive favorite for this, but I think it will be close in patches. Yuan was up a break early in their match, and Yuan doesn’t have the offense that Shnaider possesses. Diana also is a lefty, and Sakkari’s backhand is the wing that can break down at times. It’s a very short swing and she can get a bit too patient on waiting for the ball to get to her. This is often the problem with tremendous athletes in racquet sports, they don’t realize when they’re being a bit more passive than they need to, since they can run down and return anything that comes their way. I do think Sakkari wins here, because she’s just a huge step up in talent from anyone Shnaider has played thus far. The Challenger/ITF ranks tend to have fewer huge offenses, and Sakkari just got some great reps at the United Cup. The L to Trevisan does stand out in my mind, and Maria has fumbled the bag when she loses her confidence a handful of times, but I’m thinking not yet for Shnaider. Sakkari in 2-3.