2023 Australian Open ATP Round One

Nadal vs Draper :

Over the years the first seed at a major has enjoyed a pretty safe time in the draw. It’s a random event, but simple stylistic matchups and a healthy supply of clay-courters has been on the menu for the big 3 at the Australian Open. This year is similar, but with a very big test in round one. Nadal’s preparation for the AO has involved a handful of losses at indoor events to close out 2022 (these are understandable), and a few exhibition losses to the tour’s more talented baseliners (these are a concern). In light of these losses, Rafael Nadal arrives at a pretty familiar situation here. His chances for the title are being written off, his physical ability is being questioned, and there is just a general sense of impending retirement chatter. If everyone else wasn’t saying it, I’d be saying it, but there are some bright points here for Rafa fans.

Jack Draper was a lot of hype for a lot of years (warranted, but unrealized). Physical limitations kept him from really breaking onto the tour, and withdrawals were and are still a slight issue. He is having a great week in Adelaide, but a great week on a less than durable frame could be a concern. He should get a day or two of rest as the tournament schedulers will put this week’s finalists on the last day of first round matches I assume, but there is still a lot of tennis and unknowns between us and a Nadal exit as Draper is in the semifinals. Let’s talk about that semifinals also. Kwon is playing great ball, but much of the Draper hope is recency bias because he just rolled Khachanov. Khachanov is not the tactician that Nadal is, and if Soon Woo Kwon beats Draper, the odds of him dethroning Nadal will start to look a lot more grim. Getting a few days of rest can be good, but the 3/5 format change could be an issue because of the weather forecast. Sunday looks around 70 but Monday is in the mid 80s and Tuesday will see 95 degrees. I don’t want to play Nadal the week after a deep run in the heat (and you know Nadal is looking to play a day match).

-196 is about as low as you’ll see Nadal offered. For reference, when he lost to Tommy Paul last year, he was around -320. Nadal is a huge draw for investment and tends to have very inflated numbers, so seeing him at -196 is an indication that Draper has a very good shot here. It’s a hedge against exposure if Nadal doesn’t turn back into his inevitable self. Looking at the tennis, I somewhat agree. He’s a lefty which does negate some of Nadal’s favorite patterns. He hits his forehand down the line extemely well on the move (I’d say it’s his most outstanding shot) and he has a good enough serve to get him out of trouble in at least a few service games. Working against him is Nadal’s cagey ability to downplay his game leading into majors. He lost to De Minaur and Norrie, yes, but this was at the United Cup which does offer ranking points but is not high up on the “titles I want” vision board back at the Nadal Mahal. He has practiced extensively with De Minaur in the past so Alex will have felt comfortable there and was playing at home. Cam Norrie isn’t really a bad loss either, considering he played some of the best tennis I’ve ever seen him play at the United Cup. Norrie’s forehand was aggressive when hitting inside out and he somehow had a serve. Draper isn’t the durable baseliner that ADM and Norrie are, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can get over the hurdle.

This is either going to be anti-climactic or a postponement. If Nadal wins, his draw looks fairly wide-open with Nakashima/McDonald and Nishioka waiting in the next two rounds. “If, if, if” will be on full display here until the match is over. I’m expecting a war, with Draper’s power and serving netting him a set or two and Nadal winning the second half. Nadal in 4-5.

Nakashima vs McDonald :

USTA grumbles. Brandon Nakashima is probably the best American in that second tier (after the Kordas, Tiafoes, and Fritzes), but McDonald has been occupying that territory for a long time. Opening up this year, he’s been playing some decent tennis, but his game still seems more exciting than effective. He can crush the ball on his forehand, but he makes a few too many errors for a baseliner. He has some decent pop on his serve, but not enough to really win him matches. Nakashima by contrast seems a bit more complete simply because his backhand is really solid. He can get outhit at times, but I think his base level will be a bit better throughout in this match. Given McDonald’s recent patch of decent play and their H2H being 1-1, this should be competitive. Nakashima’s loss to Fokina this week doesn’t give us much to go on, but his ceiling is a bit higher than McDonald’s so he should win. Nakashima in 5.

Svrcina vs Munar :

One thing we should make clear here. DALIBOR IS INEVITABLE. He was down 4-2 in the final set to Paul Jubb, who has a tremendous serve. He won 6-4. He was completely outclassed against Nicholas Kicker in round two, yet managed to save 4/5 break points and squeak by in a tiebreaker. He then got a withdrawal in the third. His run should have come to an end against Riedi, who’d just come off a Challenger final the week before and was playing great tennis. Unfortunatly, Zeppieri kept Riedi out there for two and a half hours the round prior and Riedi was completely spent for the qualifier final. It’s a huge result for Svrcina, who has been playing well on clay Challengers but hasn’t really made the jump to the tour yet. Now he gets probably the best round one you can ask for, playing a struggling Jaume Munar. Munar had a good start in 2022 in Australia, but this year has been two losses to an inspired Griekspoor and Djere. It makes him vulnerable, but Svrcina is a baseliner and uses a lot of dropshots so Munar should be well suited to competing here.

It’s a bit of a mess to point to an outright winner here. I see Munar listed at -208 but that’s more about name recognition than it is about him dominating this matchup. This will come down to who plays the big points better, and Svrcina has about an even chance. Dalibor shouldn’t win this matchup, but Munar just doesn’t have a clear way to put lower tier players away on hardcourt. Svrcina in 4-5.

Ymer vs Nishioka :

A week ago, I would have loved Nishioka in this matchup. He was playing great tennis, had said in an interview he felt like he could compete with anyone, and had just defeated Holger Rune and Popyrin. He was battling even with Korda, and after losing the first set he proceeded to have a moment. Tennis pros should have chef hats in their bags that say “I need a moment” so these situations can be avoided in the future. Nishioka got robbed of a point in the tiebreaker by an errant line call, but he decided to dump 4-5 years of baggage on the umpire. He was inconsolable and just kept insisting that it always happens to him. The camera didn’t show it, but his racquet wound up at the base of the umpire’s chair after the set point occurred, and he seemed pretty intent on getting defaulted. “It was important point, you don’t know important point, you never play tennis, you don’t know, YOU DON’T KNOW” The umpire acknowledged it was an important point and that a mistake had been made and he corrected it, and Nishioka hit him with the debate club classic “SO WHAAAAAAT” It was honestly a pretty good rant, so I’ll link it (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAJXN5dX2E0). In any event, he decided to quit after that, called the trainer, said he had hip pain, and walked off shortly after. Get well soon.

This is not the first meltdown for Nishioka, and he previously quit a match while losing against Ruusuvuori because he wasn’t able to have coffee delivered to the court. Not knowing him personally, it’s hard to say that this is a great representation of who he is. Nishioka has had two terrible knee injuries occur in tournaments where he was basically announcing himself as a top player on tour, and that has to weigh on his mind anytime he gets close again. The cumulative grind of coming back from injury over and over can really give you some “sky is falling” thoughts, but part of being a top tier player at any sport is being professional about your composure on court. You won’t see players who are easily moved winning big titles, and it inspires your opponents to compete harder. If he really wants to move up, he needs to take a deep breath, and take a look at where he’s at. Semifinals of one of the opening events of the year, having downed Rune who was the best player in the fall swing (aside from Novak). Down a set is frustrating, but Korda was playing lights out tennis and part of winning big matches is understanding that you’re going to have to outlast the big offenses a good chunk of the time. Has the man never won a 3-setter?

It was just a confusing time to fold, and now he’s playing a guy who will extend rallies forever. Mikael Ymer has had his ups and downs in isolated matches, but it has been a pretty consistent gradual improvement for the Swedish star. He doesn’t have the serve to put Nishioka away, but he has the speed and durability to push him. Similarly, Nishioka isn’t really serving aces so Ymer will have ample chances to start rallies on even terms in return games. Expecting a close and long contest here, with Nishioka being the more emotive player but the victor in the end. Caveat emptor here on his side though, as his hip injury may be real. Quitting after a tantrum doesn’t exactly lend itself to that idea, but perhaps his frustration was partially about knowing he had limited legs and needing the first set. Nishioka in 4.

Zapata Miralles vs Khachanov :

Zapata Miralles has brought his best tennis to the majors in the past few seasons, but this year has started slowly. He lost to Carballes Baena, and this is a really tough draw. Khachanov has tended to play to the level of his opponent in the past, but his results at the big stage have tended to still be pretty impressive. Silver medal at the Olympics, and a huge match at the USO against Kyrgios are good signs, and he looks fit for this season. Karen is serving really well, and that should be enough here. Khachanov in 3-4.

Kubler vs Baez :

This is a great spot for Kubler. Playing at home, in good form (just pushed Kecmanovic to three), and facing an opponent who has struggled on hardcourt in recent seasons. Hardcourt struggles make sense for a shorter player (Baez is a smaller fellow at 5’7”), but it’s not disastrous for him to be losing. Early in the season players are fresh, are serving extremely fast, and matchups are important. You can get a handful of tough draws and look helpless. This is one where Baez can probably make some inroads. Kubler has a good serve, but he plays a very USTA straightforward game. Strong forehand, looking to push the pace, and a stable but non-dominant backhand. When he’s fresh, I like him to have an edge against Baez. In the middle of the match I’d expect Baez to get involved in rallies, and he really is very solid from the baseline and adept at the dropshot, so Kubler will have to manage his service games well to keep pressure on. He should win here though. Kubler in 3-4.

Otte vs Shang :

Juncheng Shang had a great run through qualifying. He’s been hinting at getting on tour for a while, but the wins have mostly come at the Challenger level. Good wins against Verdasco and Piros see him in his first major as a qualifier, and this isn’t a terrible draw. Otte of two seasons ago would roll him, but Oscar has struggled to win matches recently. 7-5, 6-4 to Tiafoe and 7-6, 6-4 to Machac are not bad results, but Shang is very well organized right now. Being lefty is a big help, and I think this is one of the more even matches of the first round. Otte’s serve and volley can make him competitive against anyone, and working in his favor is playing a junior opponent in 3/5 tennis in an arena he’s unfamiliar with. A lot of what-ifs here, but it’s really just about Otte’s ability to execute. He’s better by a set if he’s at his best, but he hasn’t been crossing the finish line and Shang is playing solid tennis. Shang in 5 or Otte in 3.

Altmaier vs Tiafoe :

This is going to sound reductive, but no American is -700 against anyone. The pricing for Tiafoe is always a bit inflated, and while he should dominate this matchup, the USTA stars have a knack for losing to significantly lower ranked players. Altmaier is a decent baseliner with a strong one-hander (think of a weaker version of Thiem basically), and he can make this competitive if Tiafoe is having an off day serving. Lapses in focus and aggression tend to be Tiafoe’s only leak against weaker opposition, so the longer format does allow him to make up for any slips. Tiafoe in 4.

Hurkacz vs Martinez :

Pedro Martinez is one of my favorite players on tour, but this is a hug ask. Hurkacz throws in some of the most “lol wut u doin” losses you’ll ever see, but he got in some good reps at the United Cup and should roll here. Martinez has the skill and fortitude to push sets deep, but Hurkacz serve is a huge factor when they get there. Hurkacz in 3-4.

Borges vs Sonego :

For the guys who haven’t played a match yet this year, it’s tough to say where they’ll land. Borges is a player I expect to improve, and he definitely will dig in and press Sonego if he’s making errors, but Lorenzo is in a good service rhythm and he tends to play very aggressive in the early rounds at majors which is a tough problem for Borges to solve. Nuno’s last matches were in Maia, Portugal at a Challenger where he had a decent run befor losing the final to Neuchrist (definitely a player to watch in the next Challenger season). Sonego should serve his way through this one, but I could see Borges winning a set since Lorenzo is a bit like Raonic in that he throws in a 0-40 break once a match. Sonego in 4.

Daniel vs Escobedo :

Escobedo is a highlight reel player with middling results. Taro Daniel is the type of computer opponent you play in the first round of Mario Tennis, but he’s had some huge wins on tour and is having the career people expected for Escobedo. The difference between the two is intent. Daniel knows his game, and plays within himself. Escobedo is looking to redline, and hits himself out of matches (usually on the backhand wing). Tennis is just not the sport you can afford to make errors in, because it tends to influence your opponents to keep the ball in play even more and like it or not, pushing is a viable strategy in pro tennis a good chunk of the time.

Pretty surprising to me that Escobedo beat Kotov in the finals of qualifying, but him in good form is exactly what the Dr. ordered to make this a competitive match. Daniel will have a bit of trouble when Ernesto is landing bombs, and despite problems with consistency, Escobedo’s forehand is fast enough to hit past anyone on the quick Melbourne courts. I expect Daniel’s defense to navigate this, but it could take a while. Daniel in 5.

Shapovalov vs Lajovic :

Shapo’s match against Djokovic was the best he’s ever played. I almost felt like it was also the best Novak has ever played, despite some strange missteps and balance issues on a few balls. Denis is still swinging for the fences, and playing at one speed, but that speed has increased and his serving looks much improved. His out-wide serve from the ad side is winding up near the borders of the stadium at times, and Lajovic’s one-hander is likely going to be slicing almost all of these back which means he’ll be doing a lot of running here. Since it’s Shapovalov, nothing is really guaranteed, but he has visibly packed on a few extra pounds of muscle, and his hat is looking extra backwards these days. Shapovalov in 3-4.

Korda vs Garin :

A few months back Garin was considering retirement before a random run at Wimbledon cancelled those plans. Since there were no points at Wimby, he’ll need a good clay season this year. This is a good spot for Korda to win in straights, as Garin has been fairly inactive and his method of winning is generally being stable and outhitting his opponents. Korda’s timing and service are just too good right now for the “outlast” strategy to really be plan A. Korda in 3.

Watanuki vs Rinderknech :

Yosuke Watanuki may have the coolest name in the draw, but can he do a backflip while blindfolded? Rinderknech can, though if you ask him he’ll deny it. That’s the life of the tour’s most secretive badass. Legend has it Rinderknech wears only leather jackets while surfing, and he once blew a conch shell and summoned 4 dragons, 2 tigers, and Jeremy Chardy. I was a bit surprised to see that these two have split matches in the past, and the +130 pricetag for Watanuki and his solid run through qualifying is a good indication that he has a shot here. Watanuki is one of the few players I haven’t really watched often, so I’m going largely with the prices here. Rinderknech is a great server and should win this type of match, but he’s 1-4 in his last five and it’s hard to snap those streaks against in-form qualifiers. Watanuki in 4.

Millman vs Huesler :

John Millman has had a few good matches recently so this should be competitive. Huesler is like a slower paced Shapovalov in game style. He had some struggle years where his offense shot him out of winnable matches, but he’s found a good groove. Millman’s backhand is a safe target for a lefty so this will really be about Huesler managing his offense. He should be able to win in 4, but he’s a flight risk in any match because he’s willing to go for it even when he’s down in the scoreline. Huesler in 4-5.

Giron vs Medvedev :

It’ll be interesting to see which Medvedev shows up here, but we have been assured that it will not be the dream filled kid. Last year’s crowd really influenced the match and Medvedev was unable to navigate it. Cheering for a great comeback by Nadal is fun, but it really bothered Medvedev and he took it personally. Taking anything personally is a good way to suffer and cling to it, so hopefully he’s gained some perspective and understood their intent was to watch a great movie rather than to prevent him from winning. Even if the crowd is a bit biased, you can still win. Giron has been playing solid tennis to start the year, but these two are in different classes. Giron’s backhand remains a 2nd tier wing on tour, and you’re not beating Medvedev without a complete game. Medvedev in 3 (4 if he gets bored late in the third).

Tsitsipas vs Halys :

Halys got a bad draw here. He beat Tsitsipas in their previous meeting in Quimper in 2018 but Tsitsipas has found his range again. Playing for his home country lends itself to Tsitsipas acting confident and defiant, where playing for himself on tour makes it seem a bit douchey and takes away crowd support. Stefanos has won 7 in a row against top 10 caliber opponents coming into this, and he should be able to drag this match out long enough to take Halys’ legs out from under him.

Before serving for the match in the United Cup finals against Berrettini, Stef’s dad was holding his racquet and taking practice swings and the announcer’s joked that it looked for a moment like Apostolos was going to come out and serve for it. That’ll be the situation to manage going forward really for Stefanos; how to keep his camp and his past from becoming a distraction during the tough times on court. There will be those times in this match, since Halys’ first serve is good enough to get him deep in at least one set. Tsitsipas is great, but his returing is still lagging behind the other top players because of his big swings on the backhand (Thiem had a similar issue for a while until he mastered the block return). Should be a fun match, but Halys needs to play a perfect match to win and that’s not likely with the physical style of tennis required to beat Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas in 4.

Hanfmann vs Hijikata :

Hijikata’s game is starting to come to fruition. He has a lot of pop on his serve, great groundstrokes, and he’s pretty speedy. He pushed Shapovalov to the limit (which is big since Shap pressured Novak in the next round) and has had some bright points. What keeps me from liking him outright against Hanfmann is that his game seems to be perfect in the first set and fade from there. Highly coached players (like Ruud) tend to have this issue as well as juniors. Hijikata is young and the results will come, but this would be his biggest win on tour and Hanfmann is in good form. He came through qualifying with a withdrawal against Marterer and solid wins against Diaz Acosta (super good lefty) and Gojowczyk (legendary half lego/half eagle person with a crisp offense). I think he’ll be able to serve this one out, and it’s really hard for a junior player to return well enough for a 3/5 match to take down a servebot. Hanfmann also has a great deal of power which should give him an edge as the match goes more towards neutral rallies. Hanfmann in 4-5.

Griekspoor vs Kotov :

Great for Kotov to get the lucky loser spot, he’s really been grinding away and winning a lot of Challenger and qualifier matches. He’s like a light version of Karatsev in terms of style. Griekspoor had a pretty terrible year but played lights out tennis last week en route to a title win in Pune. Given his 26 match winstreak (or something absurd like that) the last time he played solid tennis, I don’t think burnout will be a factor here. Kotov can serve his way to one, but Griekspoor was trading power really well last week and should have an edge here. Griekspoor in 3-4.

Ivashka vs Van De Zandschulp :

Tricky one since Ivashka hasn’t played yet this year. If he’s nursing an injury, I’m unaware of it. He’s really solid and I’d rate him even with Botic (or Goatic as he’s known on DC), but lack of matches will see him open this match as a dog and a question mark. Goat De Goatschulp in 4 if Ivashka is on that struggle bus, but this has upset potential if Ivashka finds his rhythm late in the match. It’s tempting to just fade everyone who hasn’t been playing, but that’s pretty reductive thinking and in general, no blanket strategies are going to pay off anyway when it comes to predicting sports. People aren’t robots. Except possibly RoBotic.

Musetti vs Harris :

Just when you forget Lloyd Harris, he handsomes right back in. Lloyd popped up and won a few matches at a Challenger recently in Nonthaburi, eventually nabbing the title. It’s a good start but it doesn’t guarantee him a competitive match against Musetti. Lorenzo has had some legendary struggles on hardcourt but he really found his range in the second half of 2022. He’ll be favored here just on durability but he withdrew last week against Tiafoe in the United Cup so I’m not sure what % ready for this he is. Expect Harris to win a set, as his speed/athletic ability can really pay off in a 3/5 format, and his serve and forehand can also be effective against Musetti whose returning isn’t the greatest (one-hander). Musetti in 4.

Coria vs Fucsovics :

Coria is that Andujar type dude who’s completely helpless on hardcourt in terms of overall results but still represents a tough out when you get there. He just won a nice match against Van Assche last week in Auckland while Fucsovics won a challenger in Canberra. A resurgent Fucsovics is a tough out for Coria since Federico plays a very similar style. Both are quick and stable off both wings, but Fucsovics has a bit more power and a slightly better serve. Fucsovics in 4.

Barrere vs Etcheverry :

There’s not a lot to separate these two. Etcheverry is a claycourter who wins by pushing the pace and playing consistent. Barrere has the more effective offense but he’s been mired off tour for the past season or so. If Barrere plays his best, he’ll win this match, but with Jannik Sinner in the next round I can probably afford to get this one wrong. Since Etch just played a 7-6, 7-5 battle with Kubler it’s hard to write him off. Barrere in 5.

Sinner vs Edmund :

Good signs for Edmund but playing Jannik Sinner here isn’t great since he just lost to him 6-2, 6-3 two weeks ago in Adelaide 1. Edmund’s return to the tour is cool since he has a cannon of a forehand, but Sinner trades power too well. Sinner in 3-4.

Norrie vs Van Assche :

Luca Van Assche is probably going to get on tour this season, but he’ll need some help from the draws to remain there. Norrie is playing his best tennis and is about to win a title this week, so this is a big ask. Norrie in 3-4.

Monteiro vs Lestienne :

Lestienne just withdrew with an injury last week, so money is flowing in on Monteiro (he opened +120). This is puzzling, and it’s a good idea to avoid assuming the books lack info that you have unless you watched a match and saw a player playing exceptional. Injury info is going to be factored into a price. There was an event last year (which one escapes me) where Lestienne injured his leg, and the next round he played with his leg completely taped and his movement was less than 100% and he still won also. He’s a skill player and knows how to manage his physical output. I still think this is even, despite Monteiro’s ability to make a match frantic. Monteiro is a strong lefty but there’s not a lot in his game to really set him apart from his opponents, so I expect this to be fairly even with Lestienne getting most of the opportunities to really close out. Obviously with an injury question there is no sense in betting, but Lestienne in 4.

Eubanks vs Kwon :

Chris Eubanks has really started to win matches on tour and it’s good to see. He’s a servebot, but the fact that he takes huge rips at the ball and has a one-handed backhand makes me enjoy his play. Kwon winding up in the finals against RBA is good for Eubanks because there may be some slight burnout for a player like Kwon winning a title (he’s fought back from some tough knee injuries), but if Kwon plays at or near the same level then he should get through here. One key this week has been Kwon’s serving, which will help him a lot against Eubanks. Kwon in 4-5.

Coric vs Lehecka :

Borna Coric is just a little bit more experienced than Lehecka, so even with Lehecka’s rise on tour this is still his match to win or lose. The United Cup gave Coric some good warmup matches, and Lehecka will probably be a game worse than Coric in each set. This has been his lot on tour thus far, he’s right there but there isn’t a huge weapon to push him over the top against the top players. Coric is a fairly slow starter at times and his shirts are entirely too tight, so I wouldn’t expect him to just roll Jiri. Coric in 4-5.

Pella vs Cerundolo :

Welcome back to the tour Pella. Guido Pella has metatarsal issues in his foot, and this pretty much cancelled his pro career despite him being one of the toughest lefties out there. Once your nerves start flaring there, they just keep going. Even when you aren’t doing anything, it feels like there’s pain. This inhibits training, and even though you can compete, the extended matches and back to back days become an impossible task. I assume he’s playing on a protected ranking here, and while this is a half winnable match, I expect him to be fairly rusty. Cerundolo has good power and has had some decent results on hardcourt. He’s a bit inconsistent since he goes for big offense and plays a lot of dropshots, so Cerundolo in 4.

Wu vs Moutet :

Tricky one. Expect a Moutet meltdown or two here. Wu Yibing is one of the cleanest hitters of the tennis ball I have seen, and I have seen upwards of 10 people play tennis. He had a great match against Medvedev in last year’s US Open, and he has a half a shot here at the upset. The problem for Wu is that he isn’t dominant on serve. He plays at a single speed, and there is a lot of grind in his game. Moutet being fast and willing to play long rallies will be a problem, and Moutet’s ability to go down the line with his forehand will also create issues. Overall, this is a turning point in Wu’s career. Moutet is a guy you have to beat if you want to compete at that next level. He’s talented, but not the most physically gifted and he has temper issues. That’s something you need to exploit to move up the rankings; those guys like Fognini and Paire need to be humbled by your resolve. This is one I’d tune in for, as it should be a war. Someone in 5.

Molcan vs Wawrinka :

Sup with Molcan? He’s lost 4 winnable matches in a row, to Gasquet, Rinderknech, Djere, and Halys. The Halys loss makes more sense after seeing him pressure Djokovic, but there are still some concerns. Wawrinka is basically washed at this point, but still a good opponent. It’s hard to quantify because his serve is a cannon, his backhand is great, and he hits heavier shots than most players on tour, but he has shown since his return that if you really put in the work, you can beat him. Pretty crazy to me to see Stan at -546, but Molcan may be experiencing a little burnout. He does win most of his matches with his legs and it’s hard to do that for long stretches. Wawrinka should find a safe zone on Molcan’s backhand, but this match really depends on which Alex shows up. Wawrinka in 3.

Pospisil vs Auger-Alliassime :

Vasek I love you but if I have to watch your bag check one more time I’m going to fling my laptop out the window. “HOT SAAWWSSSS, I LOVE IT” “REBECCA I HAVE YOUR GLAAAAASSES” So bad. So very bad. Tennis Channel marketing if you’re reading this, hire me. I will produce nothing but videos of beavers wearing sunglasses playing tennis, and possibly a reboot of Schwartzman & Rublev : Pet Detectives. Pospisil can steal a set here, but that’s probably it. Felix lost a fun match against Popyrin to start the year, but they’re very similar players stylistically and it was more of a sprint than a marathon that day. Felix is unreliable in early rounds at majors, but Pospisil is past his prime. FAA in 3-4.

Rublev vs Thiem :

When your daughter tells you her boyfriend is in a band, you get scared. When Rublev shows up and tells you he loves One Direction, you think “not that bad actually”. Despite smashing racquets and having a general bad attitude anytime anything goes wrong, Andrey Rublev has become r/tennis’s little lovebug. Concern for his mental wellbeing, bweh flair, and lists of all the vegetables and cartoon characters he resembles abound. His tennis has taken a backseat in 2022, but he still has the ability to hit with the best players on tour. Part of me thinks that he needs to add in some variety, but his lack of footspeed does mean that he needs to maintain control of rallies, so swinging hard is a requirement. I do think the dropshot is something he could add in, and I also think he’d do better to ease off the pace on his serve and develop a big kick serve.

Playing Thiem is rough, but it’s a good way to get into form. Rublev has won the last three of their hardcourt matches in straight sets, and should probably win this one too. Thiem’s return to the tour has been refreshing, but the results aren’t really there. His forehand is starting to look like his old swing, but the production is a little funky. His backhand is still there, but it took a few years of solid grinding on tour to really see him winning on hardcourt, so a stylistic nightmare (based on the results) is a tough ask for him. I’m not 100% what to expect here from either player as both have mostly been losing. Rublev in 4.

Ruusuvuori vs Purcell :

Another one where the underdog seems pretty scary. Purcell didn’t drop a set in qualfying, and Ruusuvuori has lost his last 4, including one to Blancaneaux, who is around Purcell’s level. This should be competitive, but Ruusuvuori tends to dominate matchups where he’s the bigger hitter, and the 3/5 format may play a factor as Purcell has already played 3 matches. Ruusuvuori in 4-5.

Chardy??? vs Galan :

Welcome back Chardy. Summoned by the great Rinderknech conch shell, the mighty mustachio emerges from the depths of the French jungle. Jeremy Chardy is one of the coolest players you will see. He’s from that era of French tennis that saw Benneteau and Tsonga and Gasquet and Simon treat us to highly skilled and creative tennis. If he’s been playing, I like him to beat Galan. He hasn’t played a match since 2021 though, and is coming off a knee surgery. This is likely his retirement tour, so I don’t really know what to expect here. Galan had to retire in his match in Adelaide, and the -244 floated by the books for him isn’t inspiring. Someone surprising in some number of sets, and Dan Evans to bagel them in the next round.

Bagnis vs Evans :

Bagnis usually opens the year serving well and playing some decent tennis, but this is too tough. Evans is real good, and when it’s his time to win he plays a voracious brand of tennis. He also looks a little like an armadillo. Evans in 3.

Kyrgios vs Safiullin :

THEY’RE NOT HERE FOR YOU THEY’RE HERE FOR ME, Kyrgios insists to the mirror. It has been a long winter, and many losses have been suffered by his Xbox troops. 10 year olds in America have been calling him a wallabee, and even though there are millions of people on Instagram, some of them have decided to hate on him by not following his account. WHY DO THEY HATE ME? asks Kyrgios to his pet turtle. The turtle does not respond. STAND UP! WHY AREN’T YOU STANDING! demands Kyrgios. The turtle does not respond, but chews a bit of leaf. It, Nick surmises, like most other turtles, is a hater.

The Australian Open is a good time for Nick. He has fan support, he’s fresh after masterfully avoiding the world tour finals, and he’s better at tennis than most people. This is a big key. All the poor behavior and ego issues and lack of perspective don’t matter if your talent is dragging you forward. Industry people call it the Zverev effect. Safiullin is a dangerous player here since he has a big serve and great offense, but he lost to Thompson last week. Kyrgios is a good returner due to his height and compact backhand, and his own serve is the best on tour aside from Djokovic. This should have fireworks if Roman gets an early lead, or any lead, or no lead, or if the towels are too far away, or if there are birds, or if his box doesn’t love him enough, etc, but Kyrgios should win. Kyrgios in 4.

Gasquet vs Humbert :

Ugooooooo. Humbert’s been bad. He’s hinted at playing well again kinda like Kenin, but the results haven’t come. This is a winnable match with Gasquet playing a finals, and I almost think a Gasquet withdrawal is possible. It’d be Humbert’s best result in a while to win a match at a major, and despite Gasquet’s skillful play this week, he can be outlasted. Giron did it a few weeks ago. Humbert in 4-5, or Humbert slowly crashing off the tour.

Cressy vs Ramos :

Cressy is way better on hardcourt. He’s the most entertaining serve and volley player you will see on tour, but he has some back issues. He withdrew last week, so it’s not really possible to guess this one. ARV is solid and he’ll win if Cressy struggles, but there’s not really a way to know what’ll happen.

Krajinovic vs Rune :

Rune is my second pick to win this tournament, even though he’s gotten a tough draw. Krajinovic is randomly good for enough weeks of the year to remain on tour, but I think Rune’s progress physically makes him a tough out at the majors. The late run and his heroic output last year, coupled with his pairing with Muratoglu, who just joined Halep’s team before she was flagged for doping, was really questionable. Rune looks like he packed on some muscle though, so it may just be a coincidence and me thinking the worst of people. It’s only worth mentioning because of the tour implications. Players take supplements, and go on a cycle and play great tennis. Then they fall off for the rest of the year. If the players weren’t pushing the boundaries of supplements, there wouldn’t be testing agencies. If Rune is putting in the physical work and training to improve though, then the tour is in trouble. He had a weird outing against Nishioka to start the year where he lost the plot and fell in a third set, but I think he looks primed to make the top ten this year. Rune in 3-4.

While I’m on the subject, let me get in trouble twice. I love Halep’s game and she seems like a great person. Mouratoglu is shady af though. He’s a great tennis coach, but if I leave the room and come back I 100% expect him to be eating my french fries and trash talking my goldfish. Halep was struggling with fatigue issues in matches (literally hitting a wall physically) for a good chunk of the season before her test results were flagged. It’s hard to know what to do in public opinion spots like these. I always want to let the testing agencies do their jobs, but pretty much all players have denied their doping allegations so it becomes a bit of a person who cried wolf situation. I really don’t know what happened, and I never will. I don’t even mind if they took something, but I think it’s pretty obvious that there is a financial incentive in chemists making substances/processes that evade testing and it’s hard to avoid when your opponents are getting a perceived edge.

Carreño-Busta vs Cachin :

This should be a simple win for Pablo, but Cachin has shown great resilience at times. He has a very solid backhand and a decent serve. PCB is somewhat known for playing to the level of his opponent, and his pedigree as a Spanish federation player means he has intelligent but conservative shot patterns. If he’s a bit off, this could go deep, and Cachin won’t be bothered by the moment since he’s put in a lot of hard yards on the Challenger and clay circuit. PCB in 4.

Bellucci vs Bonzi :

Upset alert. I didn’t catch a lot of Bellucci in qualifying, but he didn’t drop a set and seems to be rising up the rankings quickly. Bonzi having lost to Griekspoor was fine, but going down against Haase this week is questionable. Robin Haase is one of my favorite players, but he’s in that tier that Bellucci is entering. Bonzi will need to really elevate his game and avoid giving up the early sets, because Bellucci appears to be heading onto the tour. At just +190 there is a lot of respect being sent his way also. Scary times for Bonzi. Bonzi in 5.

Mannarino vs Isner :

Isner lost to Barrere this past week, but he played fairly well in rallies. He was hitting his forehand with good pace, and he returned serve okay. He’s starting to look a bit slower, but he’s won every single match that him and Mannarino have played. The fact that books are still listing it at a pickem makes me think it’s a good spot to avoid. If I’m 5-0 against someone, and ranked the same as them (they’re 42 & 43) I expect to be favored a bit more. Expecting Mannarino to wind up near the finish line a few times. Isner in 5.

Hsu Yu vs De Minaur :

Tough but fair opener for De Minaur. Hsu played great in qualifying. He was down a break in a bunch of sets and came through with tough holds, breaking his opponents several times when they were serving for the sets. He hits really clean, and has a pretty professional attitude. De Minaur should beat him just because he has a bit more offensive ability, but it will take a while. De Minaur in 4.

Dimitrov vs Karatsev :

Karatsev played decent in Pune, and Dimitrov has been playing mostly exhibitions. This could be close, but Dimitrov’s speed and defense are likely to trouble Karatsev into some errors. There’s some part of me that thinks the odds here should be closer. Dimitrov’s talent has always been there, but the ability to win simply and quickly has never arrived. Karatsev famously beat him in 4 in the Aussie Open where he made the semis, but Dimitrov was dealing with a back issue there. With top tier offenses and inconsistent bases, I’d expect them to trade sets and have supporters of the loser feeling extremely frustrated by the end. Dimitrov in 4-5.

Bergs vs Djere :

These guys aren’t the same player but it’s a very similar approach. They both hit every ball hard, they both have a decent serve but aren’t going to notch many aces, they both have a solid backhand but not an offensive one. Bergs qualified which would normally make me expect the upset but Djere won a few good matches alrady this year, over Ruud and Munar. The physical strength of Djere might be the difference here, but there’s no reason that Bergs can’t extend this if he plays within himself. Djere in 4.

Couacaud vs Dellien :

Dellien hasn’t really been relevant on hardcourt since he took a set off Medvedev a few seasons ago. Couacaud has been grinding, and should win. Enzo in 3.

Carballes Baena vs Djokovic :

Djokovic looks scary good, and the time off tour seems to have allowed him to regain his passion for the sport. He should win this tournament barring injury. No one else has shown remotely the level that he has. Slight question mark since he had some foot/leg pain against Medvedev, but that’s the only thing I see that could stop him. Djokovic in 3.

Fritz vs Basilashvili :

Can they both lose? Fritz played great in the loss to Norrie at the United Cup. He’s starting to really serve bombs and his backhand has improved a lot. He’s still not the sharpest about tactics on the court, but that’ll come if he get some more experience against the top guys or if he takes up yoga or whatever. Basil is a bird, he might be an obstacle here but I don’t think he’s been playing often enough to beat a top guy and he’s really willing to quit when things don’t go his way. Fritz in 3.

Tseng vs Popyrin :

Tseng is allllllllmost there as far as his tennis. He needs a little more physical strength though, and Popyrin will have ample chances to get going here since Tseng earns all his points from the baseline. Popyrin immediately referenced the work his team had been doing in the offseason when he won, which was a bit inspiring since hard work almost always pays off in tennis. He’s still a little bit overconfident which results in careless errors, but if he puts in the work then the confidence will match the ability. Popyrin in 3-4.

Shelton vs Zhang :

Ben Shelton is great. He’s lefty, he has a huge serve, and he can rip his forehand. The hype has passed by the ability though. I expect him to have a tough year on tour. This is a match I think he’d win a lot of the time as an underdog, but when he’s expected to win it takes the pressure off Zhang. Zhang is a big dude, crushes the ball, and has had some near wins (lost to TVR in 5 at the USO last year). He’s better on clay though, so Shelton should triumph eventually. I think Shelton playing conservatively will win eventually because his offense is more reliable in big moments, but I worry that he’ll try to play offense the entire match and lose to his own percentages. Shelton in 4-5.

Jarry vs Kecmanovic :

This one will be close. Jarry has the huge serve, and big power on his forehand to back it up. It’s the same equation as beating Eubanks; if you can put the ball in play and make him move, he’ll miss. Kecmanovic isn’t exactly reliable, but he’s been grinding against better quality players than Jarry. Kecmanovic in 4-5.

Krutykh vs Schwartzman :

Krutykh was down and out against Kudla in qualifying. He was not looking to play long rallies and Kudla was wearing him down. The dude is solid though, and he made an interesting switch late in the second. He started really exerting when he was out of position, hitting bigger shots and sacrificing position, and he ran away with the match. It showed great ability, and good physical strength to dig in when fatigued. Two years ago, I’d say he had no shot here, but Diego has been subpar. He retired in Auckland after losing the first set 6-1 to Brooksby, so I’m not really sure what to expect here. Krutykh isn’t really good enough to hit Diego off the court the way a Karatsev or Popyrin type player is, but he has the right offense if Diego really is just here picking up a check. Krutykh in 3-4 or Diego in 3 (if he’s healthy). The problem for Krutykh is if the ball’s going back in play, Diego is too consistent to really score on.

Wolf vs Thompson :

JJ Wolf doesn’t wear sleeves. That’s plan A. If that’s not working, there is no plan B. When he’s not serving as the inspiration for the villains in Cobra Kai, Wolf plays a pretty good game. He hits big, and he serves hard. It’s a really simple but effective approach. Since Thompson is lightning quick and looks to outlast big offenses, this should be really fun. JJ is just a little bit better than Thompson to me, and he’ll have to really implode to not wind up deep in this match. Wolf in 4-5.

Goffin vs Lokoli :

Laurent Lokoli is a really cool player. He has a really good serve, great hands at net, and that traditional French flair. I’ve yet to see two French pros who have the same swings or style. What I expect from this match is for Lokoli to win a set, but not the match. Goffin is competing at a higher tier, and Lokoli has been mostly beating guys who aren’t very offensive in the rallies and on serve, or guys who have a big serve but not much else. I actually watched Lokoli for a good 20 minutes before I realized it wasn’t Berrettini (watching in SD), and I’m excited to see him get on tour because he has the type of game that can go really high if he bulks up a bit physically. Goffin being unreliable has become a theme, but you cannot keep a good elf down. Goffin in 4-5.

Varillas vs Zverev :

Oh good, Zverev is back. I’m not saying things are better without him, but the period during Zverev’s layoff was the most exciting months the tour has seen in a long time. Zverev once again is a threat to beat just about anyone. His serve and power are great, and the layoff may have given him time to mature (doubt). This is only a concern because the main thing holding him back is ignorance; he plays the game like someone who doesn’t think about the game. I would blame his coaching staff, but from the UTR series headset interactions it doesn’t seem like Zverev listens to them at all. Varillas doesn’t really have a shot here unless Zverev folds, but Zverev has started slow in many majors, so under bettors beware. If you read this far, you actually deserve a nugget. When the moneyline is high (something dumb like -400 or above), people gravitate to the spread. When the spread seems too high, people go take the under. If everyone is taking the spread or the under as the more affordable option, then that number is going to be set at least half a game further towards the favorite than the models will show. If someone is -600 and the total is 20.5, you’re not getting a gift by taking the under. There are guys who overperform like Nadal and sometimes clear it anyway, but you’re shredding your money trying to back players who books are clearly trying to price you out of taking. Zverev in 3-4.

Berrettini vs Murray :

Berrettini looked good at the United Cup. Murray continues to get respect from oddsmakers and the general public, but the guy is just not able to compete at the top level anymore physically. He isn’t making big changes in his approach either, so I don’t see how he’ll win here. Berrettini in 4.

Fognini vs Kokkinakis :

Two weeks ago this would have been a pickem, but Thanasi Kokkinakis turned in a great week in Adelaide, including a win against Rublev and a 3-setter against RBA. He’s serving great, and when his offense is clicking his backhand becomes less of a liability. Fognini is hinting at retirement, and this is a spot where the crowd and the moment aren’t likely to spur him into his best tennis. Kokkinakis in 3.

Holt vs Vukic :

Holt had a weird qualifying event. He struggled against Albot but managed to pull that match out late. He was then something like -588 against Elias and rolled. He wound up at a pickem against Trungelliti but beat him 3, 0. This is a winnable match for him. Holt’s weaknesses have been shown to be his physical strength. Late in matches he can decelerate a bit and get a bit pushy. He hits very flat so it’s important for him to minimize errors. Vukic has a better serve, and is in solid form. I think the forehand to forehand battle is where this will be decided. Holt has an ability to really create solid angles from there, and if he can open up the court I like his accuracy more than Vukic. Vukic tends to thrive against guys he hits bigger than, but his defense isn’t great. The flipside is that Holt isn’t as durable as Vukic, nor does he have the home crowd at his back. Should be a war. Holt in 4 or Vukic in 5.

Sousa vs Bautista-Agut :

RBA is playing great this week, but a finals run raises questions of fatigue heading into a 3/5 match in the Aussie heat. The H2H is 3-3 but RBA has won the last 3 on hardcourt. Sousa has a rough backhand, and I really think his main chance to win is just digging in and hoping that RBA folds. That’s a big hope since RBA is a baseliner; he’s just used to these long battles and his accuracy doesn’t go nor does his fight even when he’s looking kinda soggy out there. RBA in 3-4, but it’s always a good idea to avoid the previous week’s finalists in the first round.

Davidovich Fokina vs Bublik :

Bublik would be favored here had ADF not woken up and had a decent week in Adelaide 2, beating Millman and Nakashima. He got boxed up by RBA, but that’s somewhat to be expected. ADF seems like a complete player, and he scores with ease. I don’t see a shot he doesn’t have, but he gives up points he has won too often. It’s a similar thing with Bublik, who has all the shots but is 50/50 on whether he’ll focus long enough to execute them. I do think Fokina being so adept in the frontcourt will be a factor, since Bublik plays a lot of dropshots. Fokina in 5.

Struff vs Paul :

A lot of people are high on Struff’s chances here, but I see these two as very similar players. The difference for me is that Paul has a backhand, and has been winning on tour. Struff dominated a few Challengers, and looked unbeatable in qualifying, but that’s a different tier of opponent. Struff should win the sets where he breaks, because he really is in a great service rhythm, but I just think the step up in opponent is going to unravel him. Tommy hasn’t been at his best to start the year but the losses (Tsitsipas, Draper) are a notch above what Struff offers. I will gladly welcome Struff back to the tour because he is so aggressive and serves huge, but it might be too soon to announce him as a factor in this draw. Paul in 4-5.

O’Connell vs Brooksby :

O’Connell is really solid from the baseline but Brooksby is the king of the pushers. He also comes up with offense when you finally have him in a terrible position. His pace control is something I really like, and his serve is sneaky good. Brooksby is that college opponent you don’t want to admit is really good because their swings look awkward, then you wind up making bad calls because you’re upset they’re beating you. Brooksby hasn’t fared so well off US soil, but this is a decent spot for him as far as playing into the 2 seed goes. Brooksby in 3.

Machac vs Ruud :

Ruud’s loss to Djere is fairly concerning, but the week before a major it’s almost expected that the top seeds are going to lose. Machac is a great server and can beat the 2020 Ruud, but I’m expecting Casper to dig in in the big moments this season as he did last year. Ruud in 4-5, and if he starts off solid he’ll win this in 3.