2022 Wimbledon ATP Round One
Djokovic vs Kwon :
The GOAT race looked like a runaway for Novak a year ago but Nadal has made things extremely interesting. This title feels like a must-win for Djokovic and there isn’t a great argument for why he won’t pick up the W. He looked physically fit in Roland Garros and he’s been the best grasscourt player for a few seasons now. Hurkacz, Berretini, and Nadal seem like his main obstacles but any of those wins here would be career defining moments. Djokovic probably coasts here until he meets Tim Van Rijthoven or Basilashvili in the third round. Kwon losing to Gaston in S-Hertogenbosch and O’Connell in the Surbiton challenger mean he has really no chance here. Djokovic in 3.
Kokkinakis vs Majchrzak :
Nothing terribly inspiring from either of these players on grass so far. This is unfortunately the case for most guys since the grass season is so short. There’s no great way to prepare for it, and the first week is mostly draw dependent because players are finding their timing and footwork still. No one has really been playing poorly, but there isn’t a ton to go on. Majchrzak had a nice practice session with Nadal where he won a set, but Nadal’s gamesmanship is becoming one of his best weapons so it’s hard to read much into that. Kokkinakis lost to Virtanen in Subiton and Kamil lost to Querrey in London so both have a rough L against a good server. Majchrzak’s win over Koepfer and narrow loss to Khachanov mean this should be close, but he’s a guy who just doesn’t have big weapons. His serve is just okay. His forehand is solid and his backhand is very consistent, but Majchrzak has plateau’d in a sense because there’s nothing there to get him the big upsets when he plays himself into a position to win. In an early round, Kokkinakis’ serve is likely to mean a lot of cheap points and that should give him a small edge, and he won their previous meeting on grass in 2018 in straight sets. Kokkinakis in 4.
Tabilo vs Djere :
There are some easy ones in this draw, so some of these match writeups may look a bit shorter than usual. Tabilo managed to get through qualifying in Mallorca, but pulled out of his first round match with Bonzi after losing the first set. On the flipside, Djere played a decent set against Khachanov and almost beat Kyrgios. He has a bigger serve and more experience than Tabilo, and seems healthier as well. Tabilo has had a number of withdrawals this year, and some really rough matches that make it look like he’s playing through injury to maintain his ranking. If he’s 100% and serving well, he can make this competitive. It doesn’t seem like he will be though. Djere in 3.
Kecmanovic vs Millman :
For the most part, the grass season is about whose game translates best to it. There are some specialists, but most of these guys are showing up and hoping for the best. Kecmanovic has played Halle and Mallorca and lost in straight sets to Otte and Molcan. Otte is a tremendous server and has the right variety in his game for grass, and Molcan is lefty and plays a bit more offensively than Kecmanovic. These aren’t bad losses, because Kecmanovic’s opponent started his grass season the same way. Millman lost to Virtanen in Nottingham, and got upended by Brouwer (a big talented lefty server) in Ilkley. That third week he seemed to find his game though, and beat Laaksonen, Korda, and Broady. To me, Millman is almost the favorite here despite the -217 pricetag attached to Kecmanovic. He’s found a good groove on the surface, and is one of the more competitive guys on the tour. Overall though, his game is smaller than Kecmanovic’s. His serve is about the same, but his forehand and backhand are a tad bit weaker and less versatile. This should be a close match, and I would not blink if it went to a 5th set. Millman in 5.
Basilashvili vs Rosol :
If you’re unfamiliar with Lukas Rosol, he’s a grumpy servebot. He was pretty solid in qualifying but got the benefit of playing two claycourters (Renzo Olivo upset Rodionov who probably would have beaten Rosol) and Eubanks. Eubanks is a big server but he can’t keep the ball in on a fast hardcourt so grass is just an unplayable equation for him if the ball is coming back. Rosol is most famous for knocking over Nadal’s water bottles, making racquet tap noises during Nadal’s service motion, and just overall being a thorn in Nadal’s side. It’s a good spot for Basilashvili to get going on grass, but he just lost to Rosenkrantz in Mallorca and Otte in Halle so it’s safe to say his returning isn’t on fire right now. Besides a few random events where he catches fire, Basilashvili is going to be an early round loser on tour. He refuses to make adjustments when he’s missing, and Rosol has more than a puncher’s chance here. I don’t see why Rosol can’t get himself to tiebreakers here, but the first set will be very important since he’s playing on 36 year old legs. Rosol in 3 or Basil in 4.
Paire vs Halys :
Quentin Halys will probably be upset if he loses this one. After being mostly a challenger player for several years, he finally has a great shot to make the second round of a major, and with the two idiot parades awaiting him in the second round (basil/rosol) he could make the third. His opponent here likely should not be here. Paire announced on social media that he was taking a break from tennis, but I think we already noticed the break he’s taken from playing tennis. Complaining, giving up, and showboating for 5+ seasons is a nice recipe to get zero sympathy when you hit hard times. Paire is one of the most fun guys to watch play, but he’s also a guy who hasn’t worked on his problems. Emotional instability, and a forehand that looks like how people swing on day 1 with a coaching instructor are problems that you can fix, and he hasn’t. His break from tennis has been off to a nice start as he’s playing two tournaments since then, and there’s a decent chance that he’s just picking up his check here.
All those Paire criticisms aside, he can still win this match. He serves huge, and is proficient at net. His game is perfect for grass, but he’s been ailing physically (reported taking tons of painkillers just to get on court) so he’s a flight risk here. I’d never bet either side of this match, because it’s a very similar situation to Kyrgios early in his career. He might quit, he might fight if he gets an early lead, and he might mope and spend the rest of his day on twitter. Halys in 4-5.
As an aside, I think Kyrgios should take a good look at Paire. Talent and lack of training create this situation. Getting to the tail end of your career and realizing you might want more can really send you into a rough patch of thinking, and Kyrgios will likely arrive at a similar realization if he continues insisting he doesn’t care. Just because you don’t care doesn’t mean you and the world around you don’t deserve better. Wear as many backwards crumpled hats as you want, but please work on yaself a little before it’s too late.
Van RijthGoaten vs Delbonis :
I thought Rijthoven could have a decent showing on grass since he’s a good server, but he brought instant hype to the grass season by winning S-Hertogenbosch. It’s a Karatsev level result, and this first round is a fitting reward. Delbonis’ swings are too big and extended for grass, and Tim’s slices will give him fits. TJR in 3.
Taberner vs Opelka :
Opelka has been frustrating to predict. He’s coming off 4 losses where he didn’t win a single set, and since he’s almost always playing with minor injuries it’s hard to back him here. On the flipside though, Taberner has only played a single warmup event and lost to Bellier (a solid player but 100% a servebot). Opelka should roll here, but for dollars I would not back him until you see a few rounds of health. Opelka in 3.
Sinner vs Wawrinka :
Beating Tiafoe in London is Wawrinka’s best result since coming back to the tour. He’s always an exciting name to have in the draw, but his comeback tour fitness mirrors Tsonga’s a bit more than Murray’s. For Sinner, the discussion has circled around disappointing results, but I don’t know how a kid ranked 13th in the world can be considered anything but a huge success. The huge wins haven’t exactly flowed, but that just doesn’t happen on tour. All of these guys can play extremely well, and all of them are fighting for every single point most of the time. Tennis is a skill game but a racquet is a great equalizer and Sinner outhitting people is the type of plan that requires next level physical ability to maintain all the time. If Rublev has slumps, expect Sinner to also.
This match should be close and it’s dependent mostly on Wawrinka’s serving. He still has a cannon but he’ll need to keep points short since he’s still in that phase of his comeback where he makes occasional rally ball errors. His backhand has shown improvements but he’s still not making the best contact when he goes inside out, and not many winners are going down the line. Any Wawrinka win will send people (myself included) into a storytime frenzy about him adding that elusive Wimbledon title, but I think Sinner just edges this out. Sinner in 4.
Altmaier vs Ymer :
Altmaier managed to beat Lajovic and Baez last week in Mallorca with some solid play. He’s been mostly a claycourter in the past but the last season or so his hardcourt results on challengers have been excellent. Given his grinding style, Ymer shouldn’t get blown off the court in this match. Problems for Ymer are his overall passivity. In his French Open loss he played pretty far behind the baseline and his serve was just spun in almost 100% of the time. This is a bad recipe on grass and he hasn’t played much beyond entering one qualifier and losing to Duckworth. Prior to that FO loss though, he served well and overwhelmed Dan Evans. This being a first round, we likely get the best version of Ymer. His swing production isn’t ideal for grass, but neither is Altmaier’s. This could be a long one, and Altmaier has shown more quality play leading in but his wins came against guys who could easily lose to Ymer as well. Altmaier in 4-5.
Murray vs Duckworth :
Duckworth is a similar test to Taro Daniel for Murray. He’s going to make him work very hard to win points, and despite being the underdog he’s very willing to fight and fistpump. He has a nifty little backhand crosscourt, and gets to net efficiently. Overall, Duckworth seems like his career will be the same as someone like Kudla or Fratangelo. They’re capable of winning here and there, but aren’t bringing the huge weapons that can win them multiple rounds. Murray played great at Stuttgart, and that’s what we want from him since his struggles force us to watch him blame his box every ten seconds. With the new coaching trials I think we should also implement some sort of slime option, where if your player complains too much you can pull a cord and have a bucket of goo or cold water dumped on them during the changeover. It would really clean up matches (or make them more entertaining). Murray’s level has continued to very slowly improve on tour, and his experience on grass could see him win a few rounds here even with his movement remaining a barrier to his success. Murray in 4.
Isner vs Couacaud :
The cool thing about zombies is they are inclusive. They’ll eat you, but you also get to join. Same with John Isner, whose lack of movement and lack of backhand turn all his opponents into servebots. I always expect Isner and Opelka to make big runs at Wimbledon, but John has looked a bit toasted this season. Couacaud is through qualifying, comfortable with the surface, and in a good service rhythm. Isner hasn’t played a match since Roland Garros. Murray will be cheering for Enzo, and so will I. First upset of the day, though it will be extra difficult since it’s a first round. Couacaud in 5.
Otte vs Gojowczyk :
Otte keeps repping for the weekend warriors. For those casual tennis players who get out there and really funk it up. The swings may look odd, but the ball keeps coming back. It’s a very old school style to go serve and volley and hit a lot of junky slices, but Otte’s shot selection has proven to be solid and his baselining is just good enough to pressure his opponents into errors. On grass, all this is magnified. Gojowczyk has been playing injured and hasn’t looked good. When he’s on he’s capable of taking the racquet out of anyone’s hands, but lack of matchplay mean even a quick start won’t help. Otte in 3-4.
Clarke vs Harrison :
Jay Clarke has been grinding on the challenger tour for a while. He has a nice game, but seems to only win against less offensive opponents. Christian Harrison has a great serve, a Karate Kid villain attitude, and a solid forehand. He should win this fairly easily, but being stuck on the challenger tour means you generally aren’t good enough to put things away easily. Clarke will have the crowd’s gentle strawberry infused tittering, and may steal a set. Harrison in 4.
Griekspoor vs Fognini :
Hehe. Anytime Fognini plays someone who’s professional about their tennis I tune in. Griekspoor is going to pick up every point where Fognini has a lapse, and I fully expect him to win this match. Fogs will have a cool headband, and whoever dresses him that morning will make him look like he belongs, but the dude is Benoit Paire with muscles. Griekspoor has been playing solid grass tennis. His volleys at net are really good, and he has a good balance of topspin/power that make his shots slide a bit. Fognini can make this close, but he hasn’t played since RG and will need an immaculate performance to wind up in the second round. Griekspoor in 3-4.
Struff vs Alcaraz :
The best thing about Jan-Lennard Struff is his super cool name. He’s one of the few guys whose losses on tour have actually sent him out of the top 100 (stuck at 158) but his power and forehand mean a decent run anywhere is always possible. It feels like he came on tour at a time where so many guys were either ultra solid or wild offenses, and he varies between the two. Similar to most guys on tour, when he’s the bigger hitter he makes fewer errors, and that’s bad news here. Alcaraz has an elbow issue, and is 0-2 in Hufflepuff exhibition matches, but he’s still expected to win here. The Alcaraz speculation is fair, because he’s pretty new to grasscourt tennis, but he’s figured out the other two surfaces fairly well so I expect him to win a round or two here just on tennis ability. Struff’s likely to make more errors than Carlos, and 3/5 should be enough for Carlos to find a decent rhythm. Alcaraz in 4, though I’d advise that betting on him in this event is purely speculative. We have no way of knowing what he’s going to do, and him crashing out first round would not make anyone blink.
Ruud vs Ramos :
Let these two play on clay just for old time’s sake. Ruud had a nice match against Alcaraz in Hurlingham, and that should be enough to get him through here. Bigger serve, better movement, stronger forehand, better ranking. The list goes on. ARV is a fighter, but these are bad conditions for his huge swing production. Ruud in 3.
Etcheverry vs Humbert :
Humbert has played some tremendous grasscourt tennis in the past, he just hasn’t played it this year. 2 third set losses against middling competition (Rinderknech, Monteiro) and a win over Albot are the bright points, and his loss to Hurkacz can be accepted since Hubie is one of the title threats at Wimbledon. Etcheverry is a clay specialist, and it’ll be a bit of a nail in the coffin if Humber can’t clean this one up in less than 4 sets. I really think seeing the ball go through the hoop once or twice is all Humbert needs to get going. Humbert in 3.
Goffin vs Albot :
These two play at a similar pace, are equally adorable, and should be closely matched here. Goffin lost quickly to Medvedev in his only grass warmup, while Albot has been notching wins left and right. Many may recall that these two fought on opposite sides during the Great Elven Wars of 1603, but as close as that battle was Goffin has won all of their tennis court meetings. It’s tempting to take Albot here, but tactically his game feeds into Goffin’s. Radu exposes his opponents movement, he’s very good at picking when to go to net, and he’s a pretty good spot server. Goffin has top tier speed and is adept at hitting passes on the run though. With their leadup results (Albot breezed through qualifying) I’d say Radu is primed for his first win ever, but that H2H is ominous. Albot in 5.
Daniel vs Baez :
Idk. The best thing about grass is how unpredictable these lower tier matchups can be. Daniel has way more experience than Baez, but has a pretty generic approach. He’s not going to blow Sebastian off the court, and that means this will come down to who wins more baseline rallies. I’d rate them pretty evenly on the “why can’t I get anything past this guy” scale, and I’d expect this match to contain a number of late breaks in sets as guys struggle and dig in near the finish line. Daniel in 5. I’d like to say this is a good spot in the draw, but this Wimbledon draw is full of good spots, and is fairly wide open outside of Hurkacz/Berretini/Novak’s immediate sections.
Tiafoe vs Vavassori :
This feels like a rematch but the homey flashscore is saying no. Vavassori is a very tricky serve and volley player, and this is a spot where Tiafoe could easily crash out. He has supreme talent, but gets stuck in levelling battles and the appeal of the fancier option leaves him missing at times. When he digs in and looks to wear his opponents down with forehands, he’s a top 20 talent. When he does that, he starts to serve well also. It’s tricky with top tier athletes since they can almost always make up for their errors, but grass is not a forgiving surface so he’ll need to be focused here. Exhibition matches are probably the best warmup for Tiafoe in any major, since players are less dug into the results and tend to play more for the crowd. He’ll be coming in after a win and should get through here. Tiafoe in 4-5.
Marterer vs Bedene :
Here’s an exciting match I’d never bet but would always want to be right about. Marterer is a tall lefty who hits the ball entirely too big to not be on the main tour. His matches are always exciting and he’s hovered just outside the top 100 for a few seasons now. His run in qualifying is like Albot’s in that it means he’s a threat to most of the bottom half of this draw. Aljaz Bedene is the Goffin in this match. He’s always done well on grass, but hasn’t been very active. He’s moving on to a career as a football agent after this, and admitted he hasn’t been training as much. So retirement tour Bedene against tour hopeful Marterer. I think Marterer’s power will give him a slight edge here. Ringrust is always easier to shake off on a slow surface, but Bedene played two tight sets with Griekspoor at Halle so it’s hard to overlook his chances here (Griekspoor would certainly beat Marterer). Bedene in 5 is the conservative choice, but I’m leaning into Marterer in 4.
Bublik vs Fucsovics :
Fucsovics has withdrawn from his last two matches, and Bublik has won a few matches. Bublik’s serve gives him a good chance against anyone on grass, and while Marton’s work ethic makes him a perfect candidate to capitalize on Bublik’s creative play, his retirements don’t bode well for any Fucsovics tales. Bublik in 3.
Lajovic vs Carreño-Busta :
Lajovic didn’t play poorly against Altmaier,so this should be competitive. No one is crushing worlds or showing levels that can threaten Djokovic, but no one really played poorly in the grass leadups either. PCB should be a bit more able to adjust to the quicker bounce and he’s played more heading into this week. PCB in 4.
Norrie vs Andujar-Alba :
Cam Norrie awakens. He is curled up in a hard-working ball, with his arms extended out completely perpendicular from his body for maximum perfect sleepy backhand technique. His pose mirrors those clasping arm plush dolls, and what is he clasping? Why, an Andy Murray beanie baby of course, as all good British players do. The doll seems wet though, and Cam furrows his aggressively growing brows. Or tries to, but they crawl away.
“Orange caterpillars?” exclaims Norrie, as he spots his eyebrows heading into the forest.
“THIS … IS CORRECT” booms a voice that seems to come from a tree.
“Who’s there?” demands Norrie, who is always on guard for Voldemorts.
“It is I,” says the tree, “Pablo Andujarrrrrrrrrr”.
“Are you a tree?” asks Norrie.
“Yes,” says Pablo.
“Wow.” says Norrie.
“I agree,” says Pablo.
The end.
ANDUJARRRRRRRRRRR ….. Alba? I’m very confused, but so are most players when they encounter Pablo ANDUJARRRRRRRRRR-Alba. I somehow never knew that this guy had a second last name, but Flashscore does. Andujar can’t win this match, because Cam Norrie is solid on grass and the surface makes his backhand much more effective. Norrie in 3.
Monteiro vs Munar :
Good opportunity for both. Jaume Munar has been outperforming his reputation in serving battles this year, and almost upset Karatsev last week. Monteiro won a match or two before falling to future Wimbledon champion Taylor “Sad Cat” Fritz this week, and he should have a slight edge here in power. Monteiro tends to blitz his opponents, and his forehand heavy attack should fare well on grass. Munar is always competitive, and prior to Monteiro’s wins last week I’d have picked Jaume to win, but Monteiro is looking sharp and Munar has no real way to close out a match easily since he’s not an aggressive server. Also c’mon Thiago Monteiro is such a cool name. Monteiro in 5.
Peniston vs Laaksonen :
Laaksonen has generally lost in qualifying in Wimbledon, and he’s lost to Millman in straight sets his last match out on grass. Henri has a huge serve, but it seems like he needs more time than grass affords him in rallies. Peniston has almost worked his way on tour, and a win here will go a long way. Him and Draper have shown a solid ability to redirect forehands down the line on the run, and his aggressive but stable play has worked wonders in the past fortnight. Peniston in 3-4.
Johnson vs Dimitrov :
Scene : A young Matteo Berretini is flipping around the channels. He settles on Tennis Channel’s broadcast of the US Open Finals, which has been pre-empted for a Shelby Rogers Charleston 3rd round replay, which has been pre-empted for a Steve Johnson Newport qualifier match. “Perfecto”, says tiny Matteo. “Papa, this man is the best tennis player?” asks Matteo. “No, son, you must develop your legs and have a two-handed backhand” says his father. “Ok”, says Matteo, but he knows the truth. He knows that a slice backhand is all you need in this life, and the journey has begun. Fast forward 40 years, and Steve “Mucho” Johnson is still playing on tour. He’ll put up a good fight in this match, but Dimitrov has been playing some decent tennis this year, and might even be healthy for this. Dimitrov is one of the few guys who is happy to hit slices all day, so this may have some leveling battles bh to bh which cause the old ooh’s and ahh’s from the crowd. I don’t see an area that Johnson is better than Dimitrov though, so this should be one way traffic (which means Dimitrov will find a way for it not to be). Dimitrov in 4.
Paul vs Verdasco :
Verdasco’s been active but this is a serving battle and Tommy Paul found a good rhythm last week despite a loss to De Minaur. I often think grass favors the more fluid and reactive athletes and that’s Paul here. Paul in 3.
Mannarino vs Purcell :
Great run through qualifying for Purcell. Any time you beat Nuno Borges is a good win, and he has a vague chance here. Mannarino is coming off two defeats, but they’re against higher tier opponents than Purcell. Mannarino’s shots slide on hardcourt, so you can imagine how rough it is playing him on grass. He can certainly struggle to find form early but once he gets in a rhythm it’s really tough to break his serve and his speed and ability to keep the ball low will yield errors from Purcell. Max has a good doubles pedigree, but I think he gets edged out here. Mannarino in 4.
Coria vs Vesely :
This is one where we expect Vesely to win. He has a huge serve, some notable grass wins in the past (Djokovic), but really not much to show for it. Coria is a defensive clay specialist and he doesn’t serve aces. Vesely hasn’t been reliable, but he should win this in 3.
Davidovich Fokina vs Hurkacz :
ADF fell and hurt his wrist last week and was in tears. Then he continued to play. His backhand looked like it hurt him a great deal to swing, so I’m actually surprised he’s still playing here. The good news is he can’t beat Hurkacz anyway, so it’s a safe spot to play injured and bow out with a nice check. Hurkacz is one of the only legit title contenders here, and his serving and easy power make him a favorite against just about everyone except Djokovic. Hurkacz in 3.
Berretini vs Garin :
Garin wasn’t so bad in his grasscourt opener, but this is a huge ask. Berretini will roll,and with the struggling Brooksby as the other seed in this section he should coast until at least the 4th round. Berretini in 3.
Huesler vs Grenier :
Marc Andrea Huesler is what Shapovalov thinks he is. This kid swings for the fences on every ball and it’s extremely fun to watch when he’s on. His qualifying run indicates that he is, and he has a winnable match here since Grenier does most of his best work on clay. The problem for Huesler is that Grenier’s loss in qualies was to Sock who is a cut above anyone else in that draw. Grenier also leads the h2h 1-0 with a straight sets hardcourt victory in 2021. Grenier has a big enough serve to capitalize on Huesler’s inconsistency, so this will be a very interesting matchup. Huesler in 4-5.
Kolar vs Bonzi :
Kolar gave us one of the best performances at RG, and a lucky loser spot for him here is his reward. The tough losses in big moments can hurt, but if you keep pushing the tour has a way of rewarding you. Here he has a tough spot, as Bonzi is playing unreal grasscourt tennis. His backhand down the line is finding the mark anytime he wants it, his returning is off the charts, and his play at net is fluid. It’s a bad time to play Bonzi. Bonzi in 3.
Kukushkin vs Brooksby :
I already wrote off Kukushkin as needing “one more win” or “favorable draw” here and there to even get near the tour again. He’s at his best on grass though since he hits an extremely flat ball, and this is a winnable spot for him. Brooksby has not only lost 3 in a row on grass (Gaston, Krajinovic, Draper), he’s also come into these matches with very cheap pricetags. The books pretty much have opened Brooksby at -300 minimum anytime he had a chance to win a match in the past, and as Beowulf from the DC chat pointed out, he really only produces results in North America thus far.
His passive style isn’t translating great to grass, but it hasn’t been terrible play from him. Just a lot of errors and a lack of urgency. The Draper loss is understandable, and Krajinovic is always a wildcard. This one is more in the Gaston range, but Kukushkin is one of the best competitors on tour and has zero nerves about the name he’s competing against. He can get tight at the finish line, but Brooksby hasn’t shown the mettle on grass to really fight back at that moment. It seems like Kukushkin is primed to pick up some much-needed $ and puntos (edit : no puntos for Wimbledon ty u/shutentsatsu for catching this) here. Kukushkin in 4.
De Minaur vs Dellien :
If you want De Minaur to thrive, this has been a really promising few weeks. Rumors of long COVID and mental burnout have been circling Alex’s losses, but he’s found a great rhythm on grass with wins over Opelka, Paul, Sonego,and a close loss to eventual Eastbourne champ Fritz. He’ll roll here, since Dellien really only is a threat on clay. De Minaur in 3 quick sets.
Bergs vs Draper :
Great to see Bergs get that final wildcard although Bellier made a good argument for it this week. Bergs is right behind Stricker and Molcan and Borges to get on tour, and all it’ll take is a little more physical strength. He has a good pop on his serve, a springy gait around the court, and a solid offense. This is a rough opener since Draper is one of the more explosive offenses and is playing at home on a streak of great and entertaining wins. Draper’s injury issues in the past have kept me from getting too excited about his ceiling, but he looks really strong now and his power is pretty impressive. There are Kane Waselenchuk vibes from the style of aggressive tennis he plays, and the misses aren’t “OH NO” but “AH I HAD THAT”. I think he’ll continue to improve, and the list of young players who are looking to play top level tennis is growing. The ATP is about to have the same depth as the WTA within the next two years. Bergs will fight here, but his serve is a bit more breakable than his opponents. Draper in 4.
Broady vs Klein :
Liam Broady should win here, but it’s a tricky spot. Lukas Klein seems like a clay expert, but a few times a year he finds a groove on another surface. For a short guy, he has really good power and his T serve is excellent. Rolling Seppi in the final of qualifying is the exact level he needs to bring to beat Broady, who’s been scrapping on tour with limited results while Klein grinds away at the challenger level. For Broady, his slices and accurate Mannarino style play will yield results, but only if he’s able to exert scoreboard pressure. Klein’s landing around 70% of his first serves and winning around 80% of those points, so I think he has a slight edge here. Klein in 5.
Coric vs Schwartzman :
Coric has played 0 tennis since RG. Schwartzman has played a bunch but has 0 wins except a Hurlingham win against Popyrin who sends half his balls into the bottom of the net. Errors against Diego mean you lose. Coric has a better serve and more power, but he hasn’t played. This is fairly impossible to predict, but I’ll take the active guy with the better attitude. Schwartzman in 4tzman.
Shapovalov vs Rinderknech :
If we all keep poking Shapo with a stick, he’ll do something eventually. We did it with Fritz, and he won a title. Perhaps Shapovalov will find form this week? He’ll need to do so early since Rinderknech has shown a relative indiffference to how big of a name he’s playing in the past. Both are coming off a strong of losses, and will likely get rolled by Kuhn or Nakashima in round two. If that sounds sad, I agree. The good thing about Rinderknech being more of a server is that Shapo will have less opportunity to force shots during rallies, and Denis has a great service motion when he doesn’t collapse on it like a young Djokovic. Shapo does tend to step it up on a bigger stage, and he’s much more durable from the baseline, so I think he’s a slight favorite here. Shapovalov in 4.
Nakashima vs Kuhn :
Nakashima has had a handful of solid performances so far on grass, and he should probably win through in this section of the draw. Kuhn did very well to qualify, but he’s always played one set of tour level tennis per match. Injury issues have held him back, and this is a good spot but his qualifier wins were a few tiers below Nakashima (Hijikata, Stebe). Nakashima in 4.
Galan Riveros vs Koepfer :
Koepfer has more experience, and Galan hasn’t played any grasscourt tennis. This could go either way as neither are in any form to speak about, but Koepfer is a slight favorite. Koepfer in 4.
Balasz vs Bautista-Agut :
Balasz may be on his retirement tour, as he’s using his protected ranking to enter all the majors. Not a lot to discuss here, a semi-retired claycourter vs a guy who just made a finals. The -300 price for RBA to win in straight sets almost seems too low to be true to me, so maybe RBA will be a bit fatigued. RBA in 3.
Krajinovic vs Lehecka :
This would be a tighter match on hardcourt, with Lehecka maybe even being favored. Krajinovic’s defense makes him a problem on grass though, and he had a great run in London. Krajinovic in 4.
Jubb vs Kyrgios :
Paul Jubb is a pretty solid server, so this could be close at times. Kyrgios seemed almost focused in his last few outtings though, and his abdominal withdrawal in Mallorca was likely related to being fresh for Wimbledon more than it was to him being unable to play. Kyrgios in 3.
Carballes Baena vs Thompson :
This is Thompson’s to lose. RCB hasn’t played any grass warmups, and Thompson is allegedly at his best on the surface. Moustache man in 3. It may not be that straightforward, since Thompson isn’t really going to end points quickly, but RCB has a more defensive approach in every aspect which should hurt him in the long run.
Ritschard vs Tsitsipas :
Ritschard getting some nice ranking points (edit : some nice prize money ty FaultyProfecessional for pointing that out). Tsitsipas has found a good groove on grass though and is coming off a title. Tsitsipas in 3.
Auger-Aliassime vs Cressy :
What in the whaaaaaat. This is really dangerous for Cressy. Felix, to me, is the underdog here. We all know he has enough time in a 3/5 format to find his game. We all know his serving and forehand when he’s focused is a combination that can win titles. We’ve all seen him play poorly for 3-4 weeks though, and Cressy won’t give you time to find your inner butterfly. He’s an extremely aggressive returner, comes to net nonstop, and can serve himself out of any trouble. I expect bad things here honestly. Felix’s camp needs to have him on a warmup court right before this match, because any slow start means Cressy up a set. The worst players to face in a deciding set are servebots because their legs fatiguing doesn’t change a lot (they tend to be tall so their serve doesn’t disappear as much as other players). It’s also a great test for FAA’s level as far as a deep run is concerned, because if he dispatches this threat he’ll have to be in tremendous form. I think Cressy wins this, and there’s no one in his immediate section to beat him. Cressy in 4.
Zapata Miralles vs Sock :
The double qualifier section always bothers me, but this is a really high level affair. BZM and JS both rolled through qualifying, but Sock looked like a foregone conclusion to arrive in the main draw. His doubles play(he’s probably the best I’ve ever seen) helps him so much on grass and his short backswing on both wings means grass doesn’t alter his regular game all that much. The difficulty in changing direction and pushing off on grass also adds to his ability to freeze people. since his forehand is already difficult to read if he has any time (look to his match with Zverev where Zverev basically lost every point where he had to make a slice get). Sock’s emotional stability is lacking in general on court,but he’ll be riding high on confidence here and he has more routes to success than Zapata who generally is overwhelming his opponents with his own pace. I’d expect this to take some time, since Zapata is serving well, but it’s a must-win for Jack in good conditions. Sock in 4-5.
Novak vs Bagnis :
If you’re like me, you fall for the D. Novak posts on r/tennis once a month. He’s a really solid grasscourt player though, and this is a gift of a first round. Bagnis has some nice pop on his first serve, but he hasn’t played any warmups and is likely just picking up a check here. Novak in 3.
Kubler vs Evans :
Surprising but nice to see Kubler coming through qualifying so easily. The ban obviously hurts the quality of the event but it’s resulted in a weaker qualifying draw which feels balanced after how strong RG was. Evans has had middling results considering how at home he usually is on grass, but this is a winnable match for him. Kubler qualifying means sleeping on him is a bad move, but honestly I did not catch any of his matches so I’m not the best authority on this one. Evans in 4 is what I expect, but I’d only bet against Kubler if you’ve already clocked his current level as Evans hasn’t been a lock this month.
Rune vs Giron :
Nice run last week for Giron, snapping a 9 match loss streak with a win against Botic and McDonald and then pushing eventual champion Tsitsipas to a third set. I don’t love Giron’s court position on grass and it’s not surprising to me that he didn’t notch wins until the third week of grass where some of there guys get a little burnt out. His speed around the court is a great equalizer though and should make him a tough test for Rune. Rune seems like he should do well on grass, but hasn’t gotten across the finish line yet. He has a good serve, and his backhand is fairly flat when he hits it inside out which should work, but he might need a bit more time to find his exact game. I’d expect him to struggle mentally in this one since Giron is a player he may feel like he’s already passed by, and Giron’s in a good spot to steal a much needed win at a major. If Rune is down in the scoreboard I don’t expect him to mount anything crazy, and Giron playing three with Tsitsipas may hurt him in the “what if” thoughts he’ll enjoy for a few days, but it does afford him a fresher arm and fresher legs for this first round. The key I think for Giron is to take more forehands inside in cross-court when possible. Rune redirects play very well with his backhand but hasn’t seemed to find good depth on his forehand in the early grass season. We’ll see what happens, and this feels like the Struff/Alcaraz contest but only in the sense that Rune’s tennis is already a bit higher level than Giron’s, so the surface disparity is something he could conceivably overcome. Giron in 4.
Martinez vs Molcan :
Let’s play 5 hours of tennis. Why not? Molcan should win this, but ADF’s withdrawal last week changes things in Martinez’s trajectory. An extra match against Peniston was just what the Dr. ordered as Martinez found his consistency and his serving improved a bit, allowing him to push the British lefty to a third set. None of this is world-changing stuff, but comfort on the surface is hard to achieve honestly since the season is so short, and it means he’ll drag things out with Molcan. I’m a bit of a Molcan fan, but I think he has a bit more ability to create offense on his forehand and that’ll be key here. If ADF had rolled Martinez, I’d like Molcan in 3. As it stands,I think it goes the distance. Molcan in 5.
Gray vs Tseng :
Alistair Gray is fairly new to the tour but has played a few grasscourt matches already. Tseng hasn’t been active at all, but has good wins 3-4 years ago on grass. It’s hard to say who’ll show up in this one. Nod goes to Tseng honestly because of experience, but it’ll be an uphill battle since Gray will be ready to play at 0-0. Grey in 3-4 or Tseng in 5.
Musetti vs Fritz :
Fritz is going to win Wimbledon? The guy barely missed a first serve today, and his service motion looks like a child playing badminton so I don’t expect his arm to be that tired. Musetti is not going to be able to hang on grass, and this will be two easy matches over the first 4 days for Taylor since Gray/Tseng awaits. I look forward to digging out all the writeups where I named him a future Wimbledon champ when he wins, and if he loses well it’s a good thing I’d been calling him a moper for 5 years before that : ) Fritz in 3-4.
Cilic vs McDonald :
Marin Cilic futures have been flying off the shelves for 5 years now, and they do not pay out. He looks like a terror when he wins, but a good defense tends to upend him. I just don’t think he has the physical durability in his large frame to win drawn out battles, but in a shootout he remains a top 10 player on tour. This actually could be tricky since McDonald has a ton of speed and Cilic is a flight risk in any early round, but Cilic’s level has been enough to expect him to win this in 4.
Sousa vs Gasquet :
Joao Sousa can ball on grass. His serve is better than you expect, and his forehand gets on more shots than his opponents want to admit. He exerts pressure, and he is a tremendous athlete which always pays dividends on a surface that’s hard to move on. His backhand is bad, actually bad, but it’s not in the tier of bad that Berretini or Sock or Johnson live in, because he is always working to hit it hard and get the footwork right. He’s also a bit faster than those guys so he isn’t switching to it as late. Gasquet hasn’t played any grass, and I’m somewhat surprised to see him open at -200. He certainly could win if he serves well, and his skill makes him a dangerous proposition on grass, but I think some of that price is about name recognition. Books very often want to balance the money coming in, so the prices are more about who they expect to see blind investment on. In that sense, I guess I’m not surprised at all to see Gasquet at -200, as it’s one of the classic “underdog has a shot but we can’t sink the favorite’s price any further” lines floated by books (most lines come from Pinnacle and are just mirrored elsewhere). I think Sousa outworks Gasquet here. Sousa in 5.
Ruusuvuori vs Nishioka :
Ruusuvuori has found decent play in patches, and it seems his main problem on grass is Ilya Ivashka. He’ll be safe from that here, and Nishioka will really need a great hardcourt swing to remain on tour. Ruusuvuori is more active and hits bigger. He’s also extremely stable from the baseline which is where Nishioka tends to harvest wins (opponents running out of shots). Ruusuvuori in RuusuFouri.
Lopez vs Van De Zandschulp :
When we talk about the GOAT debate, Botic’s name has to be included. Not because of results, but because c’mon it’s Botic. How can you not like Botic? It really is refreshing though to see a guy come on tour completely prepared to win though. There are no holes in his game, he doesn’t yell at his box, he plays within himself physically, and he goes for the right shot regardless of the score. Feli Lopez is always dangerous on grass but it seems like he’s lost a step in some ways. I’d assume he steals a set simply because 3 sets is a long time to not find a service rhythm, but BVDZ should handle this. GOATic in 4.
Sonego vs Kudla :
This one is priced at a pickem as a nod to Kudla’s solid play on grass and recent win (three sinlgle break sets at London), but I think it’ll be Sonego’s inconsistency that’s necessary for Kudla to get anywhere near the finish line. Sonego is pretty good on grass when he finds a rhythm, but mixed in there can be stretches of unforced errors. He can struggle to find depth on his forehand as well. Kudla is going to play the same level throughout, and Sonego will win when he elevates and lose when he struggles. Hard to really say whether his level will be there often enough to win, but I tend to think the gatekeepers struggle to win in the longer format. Kudla winning will have him feeling confident, but the loser of the first tie often has an extra bonus bit of motivation when the previous match was a close one. Sonego in 5.
Popyrin vs Gaston :
There’s a bit of a cheat sheet for this one since they just played in Hurlingham. Gaston won that match in straights, and honestly I’m sort of on the “fade Popyrin” train. His inconsistency and error-prone approach looked like growing pains at first, but he’s really gotten stuck around the 80-100 mark for quite some time and winning challengers just doesn’t yield the same staying power as winning matches on tour. Gaston is a big match player, and he seems better on grass than I’d really expect. Popyrin is a Shapovalov in this draw; he could easily find his serving rhythm and win a few rounds, but he hasn’t shown signs of it that would induce me to back him. His play at the Ilkley challenger wasn’t bad, so I think this is a 50/50 matchup. Hard to argue with a straight sets loss though. Gaston in 4-5.
Querrey vs Berankis :
Grass season sorta makes Sam Querrey relevant. I don’t know why I soured on him so much, as he was always one of my favorite players on tour to watch win. Berankis has never been great on grass, and Querrey has been making it through qualifying stages so it seems he’s putting the work in. I’d expect retirement to come soon, but maybe one last match against Nadal before that. Querrey in 4.
Cerundolo vs Nadal :
I feel for Nadal and his foot situation, but his discussion of it this season made it seem like he’d fall over and explode into a million hardworking bits of confetti at any moment. Gamesmanship is okay, but it’s odd that a legit injury has made me lose a little trust in his press conferences. I certainly didn’t think he’d be playing Wimbledon, but if he’s able to find treatment that works it’s good news. The first week is where he’ll be at risk in this event, since the ball slides a lot less one the grass gets worn down and the second week feels more like tennis than hyper-fast tennis. Easy opener here; Cerundolo has a good serve and has outperformed what I’d expect from him on grass and hardcourt, but he’s still a bit error prone and Nadal will make you play 1,000 balls. Nadal in 3-4.