2022 USO Women's Round Two Writeup

Hello. We’re going to go quick on this one. Not because it’s 2am and I am sleepy, but because it is 3am and I am very sleepy. Huge upsets today on the women’s side in terms of names, but most of the wins were well deserved.

Swiatek vs Paolini :

OK IGA. After causing a lil mini-ruckus for complaining about the balls used at the USO (they’re a bit lighter), Swiatek played great in round one. Her backhand was sharp, and her forehand was fast. I really enjoyed the rallies between her and Paolini, which was a sharp contrast to the flailfest that Sloane Stephens employed for the first set and a half. She was pretty much zipping herself against Greetje Minnen, and it’s a wonder that she turned it around. Before that performance I had her beating Iga in the second due to the ball complaints, but now I think it’s pretty smooth sailing for Swiatek. She looks more willing to work extra shots to win points, and she’s bringing a higher skill level and more variety already so it’s a good spot for her to finish off what Stephens started. Swiatek in 2.

Putintseva vs Niemeier :

Anisimova was broken early and often today by Putintseva. She didn’t look 100% and it’s a good win for Putsy (Tracey Austin’s nickname not mine). Another American loss came at the hands of Julie Niemeier, who beat former grand slam champion Sofia Kenin in straight sets. Kenin is getting better, but time away from the tour often leaves you returning to find people have levelled up. Niemeier looked a bit tense in the tiebreaker in the first set, and she lulled Kenin into the rhythm before throwing down a huge second serve and two massive forehand winners. Kenin looked completely taken by surprise and double faulted to give away the set. It’s hard to watch the big names lose, but the junior talent on tour right now is incredible and the offense is really impressive. Niemeier could beat Putintseva, but it would be very close. Her first serve wasn’t landing a lot today, and while her movement is sneaky good her defensive play doesn’t get her out of trouble on hardcourt as well as it does on clay. I’d expect a close match. Putintseva in 3.

Potapova vs Zheng :

Potapova was really solid against Liu, but had to work extremely hard to finish the match in two. Oddsmakers have her at a pickem with Zheng, which feels wrong to me. Potapova has a very powerful forehand and is creating good offense, but her serve isn’t great. Zheng has a good ability to reflect power, and serves a lot better than Potapova. Her win against Ostapenko may have been a bit lucky (lots of changes in momentum), but Ostapenko is probably a better offensive player at this juncture than Potapova. I’d expect Zheng to outlast this test also. Zheng in 3.

Muguruza vs Fruhvirtova :

I almost like Fruhvirtova in this match. It’s very close though, because Muguruza actually played very well today. She’s had a terrible season and Tauson put up a good fight, but Muguruza hit a bunch of unreturned serves, and was very sharp when she did have shots inside the baseline. The question is, is Fruhvirtova better than Tauson? At this point, I think so. Muguruza’s serving is definitely better, but I think Fruhvirtova is playing more tennis and will be a tiny bit sharper defensively in the key moments where Tauson missed. Fruhvirtova in 3, but there’s not much sense in betting against Muguruza as well as she’s playing right now.

Kalinina vs Kvitova :

Kalinina hit the ball well in round one, but she got a bit gift from Pera’s forehand disappearing for the duration of the match. Trevisan had a similar inability to produce offense down the line, and Kalinina is pretty solid on serve so if you’re also giving her errors she’ll win. Kvitova had her own upset troubles to worry about as Andreeva raced out to a 4-0 lead, but after mounting an impressive comeback (tiebreaker win) Kvitova was able to win the second 6-0. This should be a good serving battle, and neither one is really too agile so it’ll come down to who is able to return better. That really might be Kalinina (more variety) but Kvitova’s serve is more likely to remain at a high level throughout the match. Kvitova in 3.

Begu vs Yuan :

Mertens looked to be cruising early but Begu was able to impose her power as the match dragged on and ended up winning a two and a half hour classic. She matches up with qualifier Yue Yuan in the next round and I think it’s a pretty decent spot for Yuan to pull an upset. Begu’s power always gives her a leg up on tour newcomers, but Yuan has been pretty darn solid from the baseline so Begu may get frustrated into errors here. I’m probably being a bit optimistic, but Yuan in 3.

Sasnovich vs Pegula :

Somehow Sasnovich looking thin makes me think she doesn’t hit the ball hard. That’s just completely inaccurate though. She really pressured Cocciarretto into errors in round one and she has a decent chance here. Golubic saw some break opportunities against Pegula but couldn’t keep the ball in play when she went for winners. Her serve broke down a bit and Pegula and Sasnovich are set to play what I think will be a marathon. Pegula has good power and is a wall defensively but Sasnovich is able to play long rallies and to supply shot after shot since she hits well off both wings. Eventually, Sasnovich’s defense may break down, but it should be competitive. Pegula in 3.

Badosa vs Martic :

Leave it to Tsurenko to show up with no matches played and ball out. She really was sharp in this one and got a tiny benefit of Badosa playing tentative. Badosa looks like she’s scared to hit the ball out (may be because of the lighter balls) but she was tempering her swing in the first set and it cost her a bit of the power that ended up winning her match. In the third, she powered through on her forehand and it made Tsurenko miss.

Martic was down 5-0 in the second against Gracheva, and somehow came back and won it in a tiebreaker. That is just a monumental achievement, and it’s good to see her playing well. For this next match, I think it’s Badosa’s winners vs unforced errors that’ll decide it. She’s fast enough to defend against what Petra has to offer on her forehand wing, and Martic’s backhand is pretty slice-heavy so if Badosa is patient she can win. Should be a good clash. Badosa in 2 close sets.

Kostyuk vs Azarenka :

Azarenka looked solid early against Ashlyn Krueger and was up a break in the second but Krueger stepped up her level to steal the set. The key really was the backhand to backhand rallies. Krueger was hitting bigger and Azarenka made a number of errors trying to go crosscourt. Kostyuk’s team will have seen that, but I’m not sure Kostyuk can solve this particular puzzle. Azarenka has looked a bit off recently, but Kostyuk loses to her errors and doesn’t seem to have a great rally tolerance. A close match with Sherif isn’t exactly the stuff of legends. The pickem price from the books is startling though since Azarenka was -900 against Krueger. Someone in 3.

Pliskova vs Bouzkova :

Tense moments for both of these players as they wound up in third sets. Pliskova had to win hers in a tiebreaker, but Bouzkova (who’s my pick to win this tournament) was able to break twice in the third. Linette played great, and won some key points, but Noskova likely would have beaten either player today in that match. She’s good enough to be on tour now, and Bouzkova was still able to overwhelm her with pressure and solid hitting from the baseline. Pliskova will need to take good care of her serve here, because Bouzkova won’t give her too much once they get in rallies. I think Bouzkova’s path to victory requires less thought, and allows for a more singular approach. Bouzkova in 3.

Cirstea vs Bencic :

Rematch. Cirstea staved off a second set charge from Siegemund to arrive in the second round against a familiar opponent. Sorana is 2-0 in the H2H, yet Bencic is still something like a -350 favorite. It’s very puzzling, especially since Bencic almost lost to Petkovic in round one. I’M PUZZLED. I’m sleepy also. Cirstea’s power does force Bencic into errors, but Bencic is the more dangerous of the two on offense. She moves the ball well, and might get a slight boost from the lighter balls. Bencic with her first win against Cirstea in 3.

Cornet vs Siniakova :

Alize Cornet is having a great time. She’s been matched up with every big name on tour this season, and has beaten them all. Raducanu played okay, but she’s going to have to regroup in the offseason and find a way to shake off the pressure that she feels to win. Pro tennis involve months and months of random Ls, and it can impact your game and ability to execute if you let it. For now, she should just enjoy some time off and do some physical training with people she’s comfortable working with.

Siniakova matches up well with Cornet since she has a lot of power and trades well from the baseline. I don’t really understand why she’s struggled to win on tour for the last few seasons, but it seems like her consistency is a bit lacking. This will give an opening to Cornet, whom I expect to have a great match against Collins in the next round. Cornet in 2-3.

Bucsa vs Collins :

Bucsa got a nice draw, getting a rusty Kaja Juvan in round one and taking care of business. This second round is one I don’t think she can win, despite improving dramatically this season. Collins played decent on her backhand wing against Osaka, and ultimately won because her opponent just isn’t sharp. It seems like Bucsa has a good shot here, but Collins hits a bit bigger and I think Bucsa’s serve will fade and let Collins get pretty far inside the baseline. Collins in 2.

Burel vs Van Uytvanck :

Burel must have clocked early that Rybakina’s forehand wasn’t firing well. She was spinning her second serves in with zero pace, and Rybakina hit the net over and over on big points. Great win for Burel, but Rybakina needs a plan B when she’s missing because she didn’t have to lose this match. AVU had a good server’s battle with Venus, with fresher legs prevailing in the end. I’d say Burel is favored in this, but she got the benefit of a lot of unforced errors from Rybakina so it could be very close. AVU has great pace on her forehand and these balls are flying. Burel in 3.

Kanepi vs Sabalenka :

Kanepi looked exhausted in round one, but she didn’t pause her assault. It was a good win against Martincova, who seemed to tire in the first set tiebreak. Now that Sabalenka is an established double faulter who always goes to a third set, she’s winning in straights. She seemed extremely motivated in the first round, and it makes her a deserved favorite in the second. I don’t want to pretend I know what she wants though, and what situations will cause her to lose focus. Kanepi hits huge, but I think Sabalenka is a little better in every department. Sabalenka in 3.

Snigur vs Marino :

Snigur has pulled the upset of the tournament beating Halep in the first round. Her unorthodox forehand created a number of difficult shots for Halep to deal with and even after she got rolled in the second she continued fighting. She seemed to fatigue towards the end, and since she came through qualifying this next match could be tough. Marino is a huge server and has a lot of power. The main thing that Snigur lost was power on her serve and forehand, so that’ll be something to watch early in this match. Funny to have someone beating Halep and then losing to Rebecca Marino, but that’s the vibe here. Marino in 3.

Zhang vs Schmiedlova :

Zhang played great in round one, and should win this in two. Her forehand is a laser, and her backhand is extremely solid. She’s playing her best tennis ever right now, so Schmiedlova really shouldn’t be able to win a set. Zhang in 2.

Keys vs Giorgi :

Keys is playing well, and should have a tiny edge here. Neither player is likely to back off the baseline, so it likely will be a matter of whose power can force the other into errors. Even while typing that my mind is racing to all the errors I’ve watched these two spray over the years. Someone in 3 very bad but also very good sets.

Ruse vs Gauff :

Great upset in round one for Ruse considering she’s just returning to tour. Gauff is just a bit too much of an ask at this point, but Ruse is a talented young player so there’ll be some highlight reel stuff in this. Gauff in 2.

Haddad Maia vs Andreescu :

Andreescu zipped her opponent, but ended up going to three sets. Haddad Maia zipped her opponent, and then zipped her again. Powerful stuff, and I think her defending coupled with the power she can bring is going to net her a major at some point. This is a match she can win and I think her fitness is the key. Andreescu is like Sinner: she can turn it up to a high level, but it takes a lot of focus and effort and she just can’t do it for a full match. Haddad Maia in 3.

Garcia vs Kalinskaya :

Kalinskaya’s been playing well, but Garcia is serving great. When she serves well, it takes pressure off the unforced error count and lets her aggressive return position actually pay dividends. Garcia in 2.

Riske-Armitraj vs Osorio :

This is a puzzling one. I’d expect Riske to be priced a bit higher but she’s only around -180. Osorio doesn’t really score on her serve that often, nor does she win many matches on hardcourt of late. She’s beaten Ann Li, but Li doesn’t seem to have a clear gameplan and unforced errors have impacted her confidence on her forehand. If Osorio gets through here it’ll be a great win, but she’s consistent enough to get the win if Riske doesn’t serve well. Riske in 2 or Osorio in 3.

Wang vs Sakkari :

I’m a huge fan of Diane Parry’s game, so Wang beating her makes alarm bells ring for me in her match with Sakkari. Sakkari may have zipped Maria in the final set, but there was nothing straightforward about this win and I go from convinced Sakkari will fall apart to sure she’s going to win a major multiple times during her matches. She’s just not consistent, so Wang has a chance here. Part of the Tatjana Maria mismatch is the slices though, so Sakkari may have a simpler time against a straightforward hitter of the ball. Sakkari in 3.

Jabeur vs Mandlik :

Jabeur is the best. This much we know. Mandlik got a great win which will help her pockets and her ranking. Her plucky baselining is useful if Jabeur gets careless, and that’s a possibility here. MAndlik seemed to have a lot of trouble holding serve though, and Jabeur should be able to break enough times to win, and enough times to rattle her serving %. Jabeur in 2.

Kudermetova vs Zanevska :

Zanevska! Great upset for her there, but not a great reward. Kudermetova is too solid for her to really hit through, and since heavy forehands past the slightly slow Vandeweghe were how she got her victor, it should be tough for her here. Kudermetova in 2.

Galfi vs Dart :

This one opened at like +130 for Galfi and people bought it down to +114. Fine, do as you wish, but Dart just beat Kasatkina. Part of that was Kasatkina’s title run taking her legs out from under her, but it’s no small feat and Galfi just had a bit of trouble with Parrizas-Diaz who is a less adept version of Dart on hardourt. I think Harriet will struggle at times with Galfi’s power but she knows how to stretch rallies out and may get the benefit of unforced errors in the end. Dart in 2-3.

Fernandez vs Samsonova :

This is probably the best match of the second round. Samsonova is playing tremendous tennis, and just rolled one of the best players in the qualifiers. Fernandez wasn’t lights out against Dodin, but we all know what is coming when she plays against a big hitter. Fernandez plays the type of defense that makes you want to cheer. It’s a perfect test for Samsonova’s offense, and a real good indicator of how far she can go in this tournament. I’d guess Samsonova is relatively fresh given her quick round one win, but a long match might give her trouble. Samsonova in 2 or Fernandez in 3. For this one who really cares about the predictions, this is going to be great tennis.

Krunic vs Krejcikova :

Vaguely leaning into the upset here given Krejcikova’s season. Beating Contreras Gomez is a good start, but Krunic is a step up and she’ll challenge Krejcikova to hit a lot more balls. Part of it is likely because she beat Avanesyan who’s one of my favorite up and comers, but Krunic is in a good spot here to pull the upset and has been playing well. Krunic in 2.

Rodina vs Tomljanovic :

This week it seemed obvious that some of the players had been somewhat impacted by being named an overwhelming favorite for the odds on their matches. Gambling is not a great pastime because of inadvertent factors like this. It can be fun with friends, or an occasional hobby, but it generally leads to increased stress/pressure for everyone involved whether it’s the bettors or the players. It seemed like Trevisan was aware she was a -1600 favorite, and tried to play like one. She went for a number of offensive forehands that she normally wouldn’t force, and never seemed to revert to her usual defensive play. The result was that Rodina basically walked from side to side, put some balls in play, and earned a second round in a tournament I’m not sure she had expectations in. She’ll probably get worked over here by Tomljanovic, who’s hitting the ball extremely clean and having her best season ever (in terms of level of play). Tomljanovic in 2.

Williams S. vs Kontaveit :

Serena wins! I’m not going to lie to you, because you read this far. I don’t think Serena can beat Annett Kontaveit. Kontaveit is having a terrible season, but she has a level of offense that Serena can’t run down. It would be extremely puzzling for Serena to win here, so this is likely her last match on Arthur Ashe. Enjoy it, and let’s see what she chooses to do from here. Kontaveit in 2.