2022 USO Women's Round One Writeup

Tennis! With Swiatek seemingly unable to find a good rhythm with these lighter balls, this tournament is likely to produce a very competitive second week. I’m excited to see someone close the year out with a huge triumph, and juniors everywhere are excited that the Czech players are competing in the pro events instead. Below are the first round predictions. Tennis!

Swiatek vs Paolini :

Iga Swiatek has been vocal about not liking the mid-season ball switch. Cincinnati and the USO are played with a lighter ball, and the result is a great equalizing of power on tour. It’s the same ball for everyone, but since Iga was dominating before it’s fair for her to lodge some complaints. This is a somewhat safe opener since Paolini hasn’t been as good in this second half of the season, but all eyes will be on Swiatek to see if she finds a good rhythm or ends up frustrated. Unfortunately, she’ll be getting asked the same ball questions in very single press conference, so she’s inadvertently placed a microscope on her already scrutinized play. I find pro players speaking freely to be a good thing, and I’m hoping that she handles the press well this week and that she finds a decent rhythm with these balls. If her coaches are actually coaches, they’ll explain to her how to adjust to the lighter balls. Everyone else is making the same switch, and Swiatek really is the most talented player in the world right now so she should still make a run here. Swiatek in 2-3.

Minnen vs Stephens :

At a smaller event, Stephens would likely lose this match. Here at the US Open though, Sloane has shown that she’s willing to put in the extra effort. She’s a crowd favorite, and her defending was really solid in her last few matches. Hitting past Cornet is a phenomenal feat, and she should be good here. Greetje Minnen has a great serve and forehand, but her results haven’t come this season. She’s in a four match skid and Stephens in decent form with the home crowd should be a tough spot. Where Stephens does struggle is in ability to execute when she goes to play more offense. Phoning it in at minor events is fine, but it makes players less than automatic when they want to turn it up at a major. Stephens should win this in two, but general offensive inconsistency juxtaposed with tremendous defensive baselining will be the story of her week. Stephens in 2.

Davis vs Bronzetti :

Tough couple weeks for Lauren Davis. A surprising loss to Kalinina and a 3rd set L against Alexandrova mean she probably isn’t the favorite here in this matchup despite her consistency and experience. Davis moves the ball well, but she’s been getting outhit and Bronzetti leans into every swing. Add in that her own plan A is to be extremely consistent from the baseline, and Davis will likely have a long day at the office. Bronzetti is coming off a finals run in Vancouver, and it feels like this is a good spot for her to snag a struggling veteran. Bronzetti in 3.

Stearns vs Alexandrova :

Peyton Stearns has some good power in her forehand and likely will work her way onto the tour in another season or two. Right now, I think she’s a little too inconsistent to beat Alexandrova. The loss to Begu was one in which she was outhit, and Alexandrova’s power should offer a similar test. The good news for Stearns is that Alexandrova hasn’t won two matches in a row on hardcourt, so her range isn’t exactly there. Still, this is a simple one for the veteran. Alexandrova in 2.

Anisimova vs Putintseva :

Anisimova withdrew from Cincinnati, so there are some minor question marks surrounding her fitness here. Putintseva is a really solid pusher, but she hasn’t beaten anyone as good as Anisimova in quite some time. The trouble with pushing is you give up control and Anisimova really only misses when she’s pulled wide. Anisimova in 2.

Neimeier vs Kenin :

Kenin finally looks to be getting some form back. She played a decent second set against Sloane Stephens and she actually won two matches in a row in Cleveland including a quality win against Begu. This is a tough draw playing Anisimova/Putintseva in the second round, and I’m not sure Kenin will make it through the first. Neimeier’s best play has been on clay, but she has a ton of power in her forehand and she serves well. When players are struggling to find form, the main thing they need is time. Neimeier will take Kenin’s away and Sofia’s main tactics of aggressive returning and isolating her opponent’s backhand will be a tough task against Neimeier since she’s the bigger hitter and is pretty sharp generally. Neimeier in 2.

Liu vs Potapova :

Claire Liu has played some good matches lately and the oddsmakers were ahead of the game on pricing her accordingly. Potapova has been priced to win many many times in the past few seasons and hasn’t produced. The hype is starting to materialize lately though, and she’s won 5 of her 8 matches on hardcourt, including wins against Kontaveit and Wang and a third set loss against Halep. This gives her a slight edge here, but Liu is the more consistent player and will have a ton of crowd support. Potapova hits bigger, but can be a bit wild and has no secondary plan when errors come. Should be a close match, but Potapova in 2.

Zheng vs Ostapenko :

This is a pretty bad first round for both. Ostapenko has enough power and offense to hit past anyone, and Zheng’s stock is definitely on the rise after some heroic wins in Toronto. Zheng is a lot more stable defensively but she sometimes takes time to settle in to matches so Ostapenko will have chances. What I see Jelena struggling with is Zheng’s ability to trade power and to keep the ball low when doing so. It really worked against Andreescu and it should let her sneak past Osty. Zheng in 3.

Muguruza vs Tauson :

Does the slump last forever? Muguruza looked really rough in her last match and has had a pretty terrible season. She’s played worse ones but she looked like she was desperate to keep the ball in and it made her play extremely tentative. Tauson is still nursing some injuries but she swings free and this is a prime spot for her to snag a major name. Tauson in 2.

Wang vs Fruhvirtova :

I was excited to head over to the finals of the qualifiers today. I got there and tucked myself into the corner by the towels to get maximum tv time as one does, and I got to watch all of two points of Fruhvirtova and Pacquet before it immediately poured rain. An hour went by and it hadn’t really stopped, so I headed home. Kinda disappointing, but in those two points Fruhvirtova hit two clean winners. In this matchup against Wang, I expect her to hit a bunch more. Czech tennis is really looking strong right now, with three players coming through qualifying and Brenda Fruhvirtova looking like she’ll join the tour in a few years as well. Fruhvirtova plays a bit like Tauson, but her forehand is a bit smoother. I like her chances to win multiple rounds here, as Muguruza/Tauson aren’t at their best and Wang hasn’t really produced consistent results on tour. Fruhvirtova in 3.

Pera vs Kalinina :

Bernarda Pera seems to randomly show up at her best a few times a year, and she’s been solid in her last few outtings. Her movement is much better than Kalinina’s, and being a lefty is always a plus. Kalinina has the offense to beat anyone, but the consistency hasn’t been there at all. Pera is sharp, and should win this in two.

Kvitova vs Andreeva :

Andreeva and Rakhimova played a marathon, and it’s cool to see Andreeva getting into her first major. Drawing Kvitova in the first round isn’t great, but there’s always a chance that Petra sprays errors in an early round. I don’t think Andreeva will be able to deal with Kvitova’s serve in their first meeting though. Kvitova in 2.

Mertens vs Begu :

Mertens hasn’t been great this year, but she beat Begu in straights at the AO and conditions are very similar here. Add in Begu’s surprising loss to Kenin and Mertens defeat of Pliskova and this is probably a spot where Mertens gets through. Begu just isn’t as good on hardcourt as she is on clay, but her serve and power are still something that will be a problem for Mertens in stages. I’d expect at least one 7-5 set. Mertens in 2-3.

Fourlis vs Yuan :

Yuan hit the ball extremely hard in every round of qualifying, and I think she’s a bit better than Fourlis. Hontama and Inglis are great wins, and the quality didn’t lapse during Yuan’s run. Yuan in 2.

Sasnovich vs Cocciaretto :

Elisabetta Cocciaretto has a really good serve, and has proven herself in qualifying a few times in the past few seasons. I like her chances to win a set here, and Sasnovich tends to go the distance and doesn’t have quite the power in her forehand that Cocciaretto does. I do think she’s a bit more stable and consistent than EC though, and she should edge this out in 3.

Pegula vs Golubic :

Great to see Golubic getting back into the main draw, but this is a tough test. Pegula is rocksolid from the baseline and gets a lot of crowd support in NY. Golubic can hang in rallies with her, but it’ll be hard for her to score and her own serve can break down a bit. Pegula in 2 if she plays well early, but she’s been known to go three in the early rounds as she chooses to outlast a tricky offensive test.

Badosa vs Tsurenko :

Tsurenko hasn’t played since Budapest and it was clay, so she may not be at her best here. Badosa is coming off three losses in a row, and in her match against Tomljanovic she seemed unable to keep her forehand in the court. She complained a bit about the balls to her box, so it’ll be interesting to see if she settles into a rhythm here. Tsurenko is solid and will make her play a ton of balls, but she doesn’t really have the offense to pressure Badosa. Badosa in 2.

Gracheva vs Martic :

Varvara Gracheva has really good flat shots from the baseline, but her form has been poor this season. Martic struggled in 2021, but this year she’s finding her forehand a lot more and she should handle this one pretty easily. Martic in 2.

Sherif vs Kostyuk :

Mayar Sherif is really good, but is a bit overmatched here in the hitting department. Defending is good against Kostyuk, but pushing isn’t. Sherif can get a little too conservative and Kostyuk’s errors are slowly going away. She’s having a good week in Granby and should win this in two.

Azarenka vs Krueger :

I know Raducanu is better with these tennis balls, but Azarenka losing to her in such a blowout in Cincinnati was still very surprising. It opens the window for Ashlyn Krueger, who is like a shorter but similarly powerful version of Rybakina. Consistency is usually her issue, but in the second round of qualifying she hit her top gear and just carried it over today, rolling Pattinama Kerkhove in two. Azarenka will make her play a lot more balls, but she looked very out of sorts against Raducanu so this could be an upset in the making. Tricky spot, but Azarenka in 3.

Pliskova vs Linette :

Tricky opener for Pliskova. She was amazing in Toronto, and understandably flat against Mertens in her second round in Cincinnati. Truthfully, she could have lost her opener to Venus. Magda Linette is a good server and has the ability to trade offense with just about anyone on tour. The power is lacking though, and Pliskova may be able to pressure her into errors and exert pressure on her service game with quick holds. Pliskova plays well at the USO, and although this is tough the 22 seed should get through. Pliskova in 3.

Bouzkova vs Noskova :

CHANGE THE DRAW. Noskova is ready for the tour now, and can beat 1/4 of the players in it tomorrow. Beating Bouzkova has proven to be extremely difficult recently though, as her ballstriking and defense have been the subject of 100% of her focus. I don’t know what she’s changed in her training, but its working. I think this is a not-quite-yet spot for Noskova, but a withdrawal against Riske for Bouzkova might mean she’s less than 100%. If she is, she could lose. What likely happens is that Noskova starts off hot and gradually loses to errors trying to knock Bouzkova’s defense over. Bouzkova in 2-3.

Siegemund vs Cirstea :

Both these players have popped back up on tour and won some matches. Siegemund was able to qualify in Cleveland and best Kalinina before losing to Samsonova. Cirstea managed to beat Bencic in a marathon before losing to Kvitova. Siegemund is really earning most of her points with variation and ball movement from the baseline, and Cirstea is too solid and hits a bit too big to really lose here. Cirstea in 2.

Petkovic vs Bencic :

Bencic has been inconsistent in the past but the past year or two have been a much more mature and focused effort. Petkovic’s size and power match her up well against the top players, but the upset is likely too far out of reach here. Bencic’s backhand is smoking the ball down the line and the rematch with her and Cirstea is likely. Bencic in 2.

Raducanu vs Cornet :

The repeat title run looked exciting when Raducanu played well at the W&S and we’ve all heard that the balls make a huge difference to her game, but this is a really tough first round. Emma’s best chance here is for Cornet to win the title in Cleveland and be too exhausted to compete. If Cornet is fresh, her consistency will likely expose Raducanu’s lack thereof. I like the upset here, and I don’t really consider it one. Cornet in 3.

Townsend vs Siniakova :

Taylor has been playing some solid tennis since returning from having her first child, and it’s pretty cool to have another lefty on tour. Siniakova has been almost non-existent in the second half of tournaments, but this is a good spot for her to get a win. Townsend’s best tennis is just a slight bit better than Siniakova, but she doesn’t usually play it for an entire match. It’s extremely hot and humid in NYC right now, and Siniakova might have a slight edge. Siniakova in 3.

Juvan vs Bucsa :

This could happen. Kaja Juvan disappeared from the tour for a little while, and since her return she’s lost to Frech and Brace. These are not top players really, and Juvan’s rust means Bucsa might have the time she needs to win this match. Cayla has a really good baseline game, and her only real trouble is playing against opponents who hit bigger than her. It can force her into errors since like most young players she’s very willing to take the ball down the line. If Juvan is off, and it seems like she is, she won’t be able to apply the necessary pressure. Juvan still is the bigger hitter here, so I’d expect this to go three, but Bucsa has been a strong finisher of late. Bucsa in 3.

Osaka vs Collins :

Big oof. I’m not sure who I like here. Collins has been in a slump since her AO finals run, and Osaka has been living life in the public eye which has ruined her enjoyment of tennis and her results. Pretty sure whoever comes through here will be poised for a good run as a fatigued Cornet/subpar Raducanu are waiting. The H2H goes to Osaka heavily but she’s always been the best player on tour when she’s sharp, and too error-prone and careless the rest of the time to even win matches. Collins in 3 or Osaka in 2.

Rybakina vs Burel :

Wack. Clara Burel is a really cool player, but she plays a bit too straightforward to really make an impact against Rybakina here. Rybakina in 2.

Van Uytvanck vs Venus Williams :

Oddsmakers are not giving Venus a lot of chance here, and it’s a fair assessment since she hasn’t won a match in quite some time. She still has great power and form, but her legs just aren’t getting her around the court fast enough for professional tennis. AVU isn’t exactly winning a ton of matches, but is she active (withdrew from her only hardcourt match in the first set). One player not winning, one player not playing. AVU in 3 probably, since Venus plays well in the first sets still and the crowd will be attempting to will Venus into the second round.

Kanepi vs Martincova :

Tereza Martincova has been getting her form back recently, but the WTA has so much depth that a deep run isn’t coming. She has a huge forehand and is capable of hanging even with Kanepi, but Kaia has been competing on larger stages this season and can trade power well. Should be close, with Kanepi having a slight edge. Kanepi in 3.

Sabalenka vs Sabalenka :

Sabalenka plays Catherine Harrison, but she’s generally the one who beats herself. Harrison did really well today beating Lys in 2 as a +175 underdog, and she’s consistent enough to trouble Aryna if her serving woes pop up. The route to success that requires double faults is a tough thing to predict though, and this is probably a close but losing effort for Harrison since Sabalenka has been playing decent ball in her last few matches. Sabalenka in 2.

Halep vs Snigur :

Snigur has been stuck at the Challenger level for a while, but the hard work has paid off. She isn’t serving aces or hitting clean winners, but her serve and first strike combination has been really well executed so far. Halep is obviously a player who’ll put the extra balls back and force Snigur to dig deep, but it will likely take a bit of time before Halep pulls away here. I’d expect the first set to be close and Halep to solve the puzzle in the second, but there are a lot of players on tour I think Snigur would beat at her current level.

Frech vs Marino :

Marino played a tremendous match in Toronto against Zheng so she enters this as a small favorite. She has a really heavy yet flat backhand, and her serve is in the top 30 on tour. Frech is the more complete player, but her lack of matches this season has her trying to find form again. Marino should be able to break her serve a few times, and that’ll be all she needs since she’s in a good rhythm on her own. Marino in 2.

Podoroska vs Schmiedlova :

What a gift for these two. Podoroska has been stuck off tour for a little while after her Roland Garros heroics, and Schmiedlova is on a 6 match losing streak. It’s hard to say who’ll triumph here, relatively impossible really. I think Podoroska’s eventual ceiling is higher, but she’s been struggling to win matches. Schmiedlova has more experience on hardcourt, but a slump is a slump. Someone in 3.

Zhang vs Teichmann :

Zhang losing to Cornet was ideal, because she’s in great form and will now be well-rested for this match. Teichmann is one of the better lefty baseliners on tour, but she might get outworked here. Zhang’s forehand has been a laser, and her work ethic has been similar to Bouzkova’s during the last month or so. At some point she’ll likely burn out, so I don’t love seeing her open at a pickem here, but I think it’s correct that this is a dead even match. Teichmann can extend rallies and her lefty patterns are something Zhang hasn’t been dealing with (walkover against Trevisan avoided that). Zhang in 3.

Keys vs Yastremska :

Madison found her game last week and the win against Swiatek was really solid play. I like her chances of going on a run here because her best play is usually at the hardcourt majors, and her level at the AO was the only one I was really worried could beat Barty (I had some Barty futures despite insisting that futures are a losing venture). Yastremska has similar power, but somehow is less consistent than Keys. Keys in 2.

Giorgi vs Bondar :

Anna Bondar is supposed to be a clay specialist but her serve and power are winning her matches on every surface. This would normally be a closer match but Giorgi has been playing great starting in the grass season, and her offense will likely expose her tall opponent’s movement. Giorgi in one close and one lopsided set.

Ruse vs Saville :

Ruse hasn’t been too active and her opponent has played a ton of hardcourt. Ruse is still one of those young talents who could end up being really good, but right now Saville is the pick. Saville in 2.

Gauff vs Jeanjean :

Leolia Jeanjean may have taken some time off of tennis, but she’s been putting together the kind of season that will let her skip qualifying next year. She plays behind a laser of a forehand, and her defense and understanding of the game is really mature. Maybe she could beat 2019 Gauff. Cori is playing at a great level this year though and her serve is starting to come along. She sprays errors when she’s overmatched with power, but here she should win the backhand exchanges and win in 2.

Haddad Maia vs Konjuh :

Ana Konjuh is one of the more dangerous underdogs on tour since she has such great power and stability, but Haddad Maia has reached another tier on tour. She’s a legit threat to win any title on any surface now, and she should deal with Konjuh’s power long enough to expose her lack of endurance. Haddad Maia in 2-3.

Tan vs Andreescu :

Bianca may have lost to Zheng, but she displayed some of the high level tennis and tenacity that saw her win this tournament. She’ll have a simple match here, as Tan really does not have the power to hang with her. The only worry is how often Andreescu went to 3 with weaker opponents in the past, but her ability to turn it up is always there and fitness shouldn’t be an issue for a few rounds at least. Andreescu in 2.

Peterson vs Kalinskaya :

I’m absolutely terrible at gauging when Kalinskaya is going to play well. Her backhand is great, but she throws away breaks of serve at random times. It reminds me a bit of Kudermetova in her early career where she would win a set 6-1 and then lose the next 1-6. Peterson won their previous meeting in 3 on clay, but I think this one may get reversed. Kalinskaya has been slightly sharper, and more active. Kalinskaya in 3.

Garcia vs Rakhimova :

Cool for Rakhimova to get into the draw. She’ll be a good opening test for Garcia, but Caroline has almost gotten to a level where she can threaten for major titles. Her serve is getting sneakily consistent, and her power is starting to land in the court a lot more than the backstop. Garcia in 2.

Riske vs Yu :

Good experience for Yu, but Riske is playing extremely well this season (maybe her best tennis ever). Riske in 2.

Li vs Osorio :

Li hasn’t played since Wimbledon, so I really don’t know what to expect here. Osorio hasn’t won many matches on hardcourt, but she’ll expose any rust that Li has since she’s a very good defender and tends to play her best at the business end of sets. If Li is healthy, she should roll as she’s a great hardcourt player, but she’s been too inconsistent for me to really venture a guess here.

Parry vs Wang Xiyu :

Diane Parry is not only promising, she also wins. It’s been really refreshing seeing a young talent maximize their opportunities while also putting in the hard yards at the Challenger and ITF levels to get onto the tour. Wang is evenly matched here but Parry seems to have a real head for the game and she should win. Parry in 2.

Maria vs Sakkari :

Sakkari fans are closing their eyes for this one. Tatjana Maria’s slices pretty much unravel everyone I think they won’t. She beat Sakkari in Wimbledon and losing unexpected matches on the biggest stage is something that Sakkari has somewhat become known for. Tatjana has just lost to Parry, but I actually think Parry has more patience and understanding of the game than Sakkari. Sakkari has a tendency to just go for the big exciting “correct” shot, when really I think her physical ability is such that she should be playing a much more measured and careful approach. Her initial run to the top of the game was almost entirely about her defense, and included tons of 3 set wins. Her serve and forehand have improved enough to make her an offensive threat, but I don’t think it should be plan A.

There is some part of me that thinks Sakkari will go on a big run here. She had the title last year and was the best player left on paper, and she froze in the moment against Raducanu. Sometimes that will trigger a player to train and train until they come back the next year to finish things off (like Medvedev at the USO). Anyway, Sakkari should win this match, but I don’t agree with the +400 odds offered for Maria. Sakkari in 3.

Jabeur vs Brengle :

Brengle is a wizard at breaking her opponents serves. She pulls a ton of upsets yet always enters matches as an underdog. This is a spot where her several game runs may come, but won’t get her across the finish line. Jabeur has levelled up a bit and her losses now are when she’s outplayed, rather than when she’s impatient or careless. The Wimbledon final will trouble her for a while, but this is a good spot to start building a new memory. Jabeur in 2.

Mandlik vs Zidansek :

Mandlik seems legit. She’s winning a ton of matches, and wins against Teichmann, Riske, and a third set loss to Badosa are a really good sign that the USTA won’t have to offer this player too many wildcards in the future. Her opponent has only played a single match on hardcourt, and the slight ring-rust may let Mandlik pull another upset here (rankings-wise). 4 losses in a row for Zidansek spell trouble here. Mandlik in 2.

Tormo vs Kuzmova :

Immovable object unstoppable force yay! Kuzmova’s forehand is likely messing with the orbit speed of the Earth. It is really heavy. Tormo’s defense is like a piece of tape that is attached to your shoe. You think you can step on it to remove it? No no no. It will journey from shoe to shoe as long as it pleases. This should be fun, and I think Tormo will outlast Kuzmova’s offense. Tormo in 3.

Rus vs Rogers :

Aranxta Rus is always a late threat to win these matches, but she seems a bit weaker off grass and clay. Her backhand can lose range, and her serving hasn’t been as good as it was in the past. Shelby Rogers is going to have the crowd on her side, and she’s been threatening in the second week of hardcourt tournaments for quite a while now. Her fitness also looks better than ever this season. Rogers in 2.

Kudermetova vs Vekic :

Donna Vekic is back! It’s just really difficult to get traction on tour. She’s played a bunch of close matches but that doesn’t net her points, and this is a tough draw. Kudermetova has good enough defense to stop Vekic, and her own serving has improved a bit. Should be a close match throughout since Vekic has great power, but Kudermetova in 3.

Vandeweghe vs Zanevska :

I like Zanevska in this spot, but Vandeweghe has been going back to the ITF and Challenger level and winning a lot of matches. She’s snagged Tauson, Pera, and Wang in the last month, and her power coupled with Zanevska’s clay preference do probably make her the favorite here. Vandeweghe in 2.

Parrizas-Diaz vs Galfi :

Interesting spot. Galfi really looks like a top 40 player when her shots are landing. She has more power than most of the tour, and moves really well. Errors and adrenaline seem to be her main trouble, and NPD is likely to capitalize on that. She hits a very flat ball so it’ll be interesting to see how Galfi produces her forehand with the ball skidding low. Overall, I think Galfi in a first round has a good shot, but it’s really about her percentages. We know what to expect from Nuria; solid baselining and good shot patterns. Galfi in 2 or NPD in 3.

Dart vs Kasatkina :

Kasatkina has been getting some good draws this season, and this is another one. She can definitely outmaneuver Dart, who has a good baseline game and is constantly improving, but lacks power. This should be closer than the odds but Kasatkina is unlikely to get upset here. Kasatkina in 2.

Fernandez vs Dodin :

This is a good opener for Fernandez. Ocean Dodin has a huge serve, and lasers for groundstrokes. They don’t land most of the time though, and Fernandez’s defense is good enough for force her into errors. Fernandez in 2.

Samsonova vs Bejlek :

Bejlek is 16 years old and just qualified for the US Open on her first shot. She’s also lefty which makes her powerful baseline game even tougher to upend. I don’t think she can outhit Samsonova, but she hasn’t folded under the pressure yet so Samsonova will have to put in a lot of work here. Samsonova in 2.

Krunic vs Avanesyan :

Krunic is a tricky player to predict. One, because my brain pictures Sasnovich’s game when I think about her matches. Two, because of one. Avanesyan has a huge topspin forehand and her clay background makes her a hard out here. I think she can pull the upset, but this will likely wind up in a third set. Krunic in 3.

Krejcikova vs Contreras Gomez :

KREJI ARE YOU OKAY, ARE YOU OKAY KREJI? I really am not sure what to expect from Krejcikova. She has some good rallies, but the automatic baseline W form that won her the French Open hasn’t been there since she returned from her elbow injury. Contreras Gomez probably can’t hit past her, but Krejcikova will need to limit errors as FCG has come through qualifying by being an absolute wall. This is a game of chicken in a sense, but I think Krejcikova will have enough time to get this done. Krejcikova in 3.

Trevisan vs Rodina :

Welcome back to the tour Rodina. Trevisan is a very similar player to her (big booming baseline rallies and defense) but is much sharper. Trevisan should win this in two against a veteran who hasn’t really played on tour in quite some time.

Muchova vs Tomljanovic :

Muchova hasn’t done a lot but still has that aura when she plays a big match. This might be one of the best contests in the first round, but Tomljanovic has been crushing the ball. Her middling results were often confusing but her and Garcia have really found their timing in the past few weeks and it’s paying off. Tomljanovic has already fought through enough difficult matches to play her best here even if she has a patch of errors, and match fitness is such a hard thing to overcome on tour. Muchova has played one and a half hardcourt matches since Wimbledon, and it’ll be very surprising if she can win here. That being said, Ajla has a very singular approach. If Muchova gets in a rhythm reflecting her power, she has way more variety and plays well under pressure. We’ll see, I suppose. Tomljanovic in 2 is the most likely outcome.

Williams Serena vs Kovinic :

Say goodnight to the GOAT. Serena Williams and Venus look like they’re retiring soon, and I’m excited to see the competitive grind that Serena has always kept present in her mind fade. The stress and pressure will go, and perspective will come. She’s pretty brilliant and personable most of the time, and I think she’ll be able to approach a more universally chill approach when she’s no longer required to defeat all challengers and represent an entire generation of players. I definitely wouldn’t object to her doing some guest announcing here and there.

What she’s done in the sport will not be seen again, and I’d compare her dominance to that of any of the big 3 without question. She has a winnable match here, which is hard to find these days. Kovinic has been struggling to find consistent form, and doesn’t really have the power or offense to rush Serena’s swings or challenge her lateral movement enough to win the whole match. I have more to say about Serena, but it looks like I will get to say it later on. Williams in 2 and a few more well-deserved twirls on Arthur Ashe.

Cristian vs Kontaveit :

Cristian is returning from a right knee injury, and Kontaveit has been struggling with the effects of COVID for a while now. It’s a fair fight, but Kontaveit has a few more matches under her belt and should win this in 2.