2022 USO Men's & Women's Round Three Writeup

ATP Singles :

Medvedev vs Wu :

This is probably the end of the road for Wu but what a road it has been. He won the Orlando challenger in June. He won the Rome challenger in July. He won the Indianapolis challenger a week later. He then beat three tour players (Travaglia, Moutet, Berankis) while only dropping a set. In the first round he opened as a -300 favorite against Basilashvili and proved the books right, winning in straights. Last round he had an extremely difficult battle against Nuno Borges where he was up a break a few times and was down 2-1 heading into the fourth and he managed to battle back and win. His service motion is fluid and he has great pop and repeatability. His forehand contact is incredibly good and he swings with full commitment on every shot (no pushmode exists). His backhand is a wall and he is hitting with extremely good depth. If you want to see Medvedev in a match where he will have to create offense rather than outlast and counterpunch, this is it.

Medvedev coasted against Rinderknech whose offense is big enough to hang with a lead but whose defense couldn’t really shut down Medvedev’s serve plus one. This will be an entirely different challenge. I’m not annointing Wu king of the world because obviously he’s just almost lost to Borges, but Wu’s tennis is in that 50-60 range on tour right now and that should give us a good look at Medvedev elevating to face a challenge. I expect Wu to get on tour early next season and stay there for a long time; that’s how good his groundstrokes are. The challenge for Wu will be to avoid long service games. Medvedev is going to serve aces, that is pretty standard, and the long service games and the frequent 30-30 and duece games that Wu saved against Borges will likely go against him more often since Medvedev has a lot more variation, and also has no pressure in these moments which means he won’t just look to hit hard and keep it in like Borges did. I like Wu’s chances of making this a close contest in stretches, but I’m not sure his returning is up to this level. Medvedev in 3-4 close sets.

Kyrgios vs Wolf :

This is convenient. For quite some time now, I have been hoping that Kyrgios would be attacked by a wolf. The problem is that the attack would only bother him if he looked up at his box after and they were not cheering. I’m not sure when cheering and handslapping became an automatic deliverable after every tennis rally, but asking for applause is one of my least favorite things in tennis. Screaming at your box is up there as well. On the flipside, if you’re in Nick’s box, you need to get hyped. His energy/motivation fluctuates wildly during a match so you need to keep feeding him and directing him back to the task at hand. If you’re a coach or a parent, yes you should be reserved out of respect for the opponent. If you’re some snapback rando? GET CRAZY.

JJ Wolf had a tough first set against Tabilo. Wolf was trying to make the game ugly, and to be honest Tabilo’s forehand was a bit too much for him. Wolf was camping in the backhand corner a lot and he got punished for it as Tabilo beat him time and time again with shots down the line. In the second, Wolf went down an early break but the game he did it in was a marathon. He was able to turn this into a very JJ Wolf match and the physical battle is something that took a toll on Tabilo’s offense. Once these two were tired, Wolf looked like he’d definitely get there. This next match should look very similar to Bonzi Kyrgios, but Wolf is a bit more enthusiastic and confrontational so I think Kyrgios will be more focused on the tennis than he is on his box (wishful thinking). Wolf’s serve and forehand are good but Kyrgios’ returning is better. I’d expect a gutsy performance and for the crowd to get rowdy as soon as Kyrgios gets upset, but his serving and his newfound stability in rallies means that Wolf’s main chance to make inroads here is Kyrgios being impatient. It’s a good hope, but he isn’t going to get an entire match in that manner. The serving edge is too big for Nick. Kyrgios in 3-4.

Carreño-Busta vs De Minaur :

A pair of 4 set wins in round one for these two sets up a really close match. PCB started off as a healthy favorite against Bublik but it didn’t matter how good his form was since Bublik was scoring at will with his serve. Matches against great servers always look more stressful than they need to be, but Pablo got the job done. I was a little dismayed at the manner that he played the third set in though. He went away from the measured and clean hitting that he displayed in Cincinnati and started to bludgeon the ball. The focus on just hitting the court was there, and it allowed Bublik to get a look at a number of break points. Luckily, Bublik got too excited and tried to entertain the crowd while winning the set, or he’d have converted. It’s this regression that makes me think De Minaur is probably going to win this contest. De Minaur did drop an untimely set against Garin (he had things locked up and just lost the plot), but he was really adept at moving the ball and has been for both rounds of this tournament. This match will take forever to finish since neither playing is serving aces and both are extremely solid defensively, but I expect the guy who’s able to impose their forehand is going to have a slight edge and that looks to be De Minaur so far. De Minaur in 4-5.

Khachanov vs Draper :

Khachanov was a bit too solid defensively for Monteiro in the second round. Thiago had a lot of good support in the crowd, and they willed him into nabbing the third set despite Khachanov serving for it, but Khachanov really was the bigger hitter through. It makes this next contest fairly interesting because it didn’t look at all like Monteiro’s patterns were working against Khachanov and Draper is basically a stronger but slightly slower version of Monteiro. They have very similar shot productions and patterns (a lot of inside out forehand, a stable but mostly crosscourt backhand) so Khachanov should fare much better than FAA. For Felix, these kind of losses are becoming standard but they’re really not that bad. Draper was playing tremendous ball coming in, he’s hungrier for wins on tour since he’s new, and sometimes you just got outraced by a big server/hitter. Felix was trying to work his way into the match but never got a window. Draper made it a sprint and he won.

It’s an interesting matchup with Draper and Khachaov because this is supposed to be a match that Khachanov wins and I’m not sure he will. Draper is very powerful and can serve well enough to get short returns, but Khachanov hits a much different ball (faster and flatter) than Felix and Jack will have less time here. I’d expect Khachanov to win a set or two, and so the question here will become how durable Draper is. He got past Felix in 3 so he should be just fresh enough to squeak past here. Draper’s offense and play is a similar caliber to Khachanov but he just seems a tiny bit more efficient with his results so far on tour. Draper in 5.

Davidovich Fokina vs Galan :

I expected ADF to roll Fucsovics but seeing him open at just -225 rang alarm bells for me. ADF after smoking Nishioka (who was a hero a few weeks ago in Washington D.C.) could have easily been sold at -300 or more against Fucsovics who has really struggled to win matches this year. The books were right though, and Fucsovics won some extremely improbable sets to wind up in a fifth. Serving second in the fifth, Fucsovics seemed like he would get broken eventually but he managed to make it to a tiebreaker. There ADF showed that he was still able to execute offense. He hit some good passes and took care of his serve well and that was enough as Fucsovics was really on his last legs. Here Fokina will face another excellent baseliner in Daniel Elahi Galan, who was able to battle back against Jordan Thompson in his own personal marathon. Backing up a big upset like Tsitsipas is really difficult, so it was good play from Galan.

5 sets for a guy like ADF who has had retirement issues on tour is pretty scary, but he should win this match also. Galan is just a weaker hitter of the tennis ball and ADF has enough offense to impose himself once he gets balls to work with. Fatigue is the main issue but similar to Cachin in the 5th against Holt, ADF was still able to get power from his legs in his serve. That’s a good sign, and Nishioka/Fucsovics/Galan is too good of a gift for ADF to pass up. Galan will be able to muster a set here but I don’t expect him to get the emotional weakness he did from Tstisipas, nor the offensive weakness that he did from Thompson. ADF in 4.

Murray vs Berretini :

This is a tough one to call. Murray has had two very winnable matches against Cerundolo struggling to find form, and Nava in his first big name match at a major. It’s the manner in which he won them that gives him a decent chance here, and the current form of his opponent. Berrettini is one of the most consistent performers at the majors, but he’s coming off an injury and his last round against Grenier wasn’t terribly inspiring. Matteo got the job done, but his backhand was a little rough at times and he wasn’t able to make inroads on Grenier’s service games like you’d hope. Add in that the top tier of the tour has been able to find his backhand to great effect, and this almost seems like a spot that Murray would win in. The crowd at the USO has been really boisterous for their favorites, and Murray pulling a big upset here is something they’ll likely get behind. That means big points, tiebreakers, and Murray highlight shots will induce a lot of noise and that can be a tough environment to produce in when you’re Berretini and you’re not quite 100% sure of your game yet.

Arguments for Berrettini are just his serve and forehand combo. Murray is a great returner but he’s a little slow and beating Nava 6-1 doesn’t really mean a lot yet. Berretini has a cannon and defending against pace is the one thing that has seen Murray lose this year. The -200 +170 price offered though is a classic trap line for when the favorite is going to lose. You have to think that Murray will make inroads here. I’d expect them to trade the opening sets and honestly I’m not entirely sure what to expect from there. I lean Berrettini because his ceiling/average is enough to win this match, but Murray’s at the peak of his washed-up tennis level so it’s pretty much dead even in my opinion. Someone in 5 thrilling sets.

Cachin vs Moutet :

Pedro Cachin’s physical strength in the 5th set has looked the same as in the 1st, and it has gotten him across the finish line the last two rounds. Brandon Holt looked tremendous in the early goings, but he was unable to maintain his level of ball-striking as the day dragged on. Up 4-1 in the 4th, Holt looked like he’d close out, but it just became very difficult to get an error out of Cachin. Holt’s flat measured shotmaking started to fatigue, and as he left the ball short. As the scoreline got tight, he got a bit pushy. This strategy is fine since Holt is solid off both wings, but the short balls gave Cachin a safe chance to open up, and he began to dominate the affair with his forehand. I really like his backhand contact, and he was able to safely hit in the fifth until he earned points. The real dagger was Cachin’s ability to hit first serves. He didn’t lose a lot of pop on his serve, and the long holds were Holt really took the legs and nerves out of him. This is something that clay really helps with. You regularly see entire claycourt matches without double faults, and serving late in the match is one of the biggest barriers for young players on tour. This is a career changing win for Cachin, who has been winning on the Challenger tour on clay but really needed a big result to make the break onto the main tour.

The Moutet train has kept rolling in an exciting way. Botic dominated things early but once the edge was off his serving Moutet was able to run him around enough that he couldn’t find offense. There were some impatient charges to net and some unlucky unforced errors late that hurt Botic, and it looked a lot like the Korda/Moutet clash a year ago but this time against a less durable athlete. It’ll never happen, but I’d love to see some of the guys on tour race different distances because I think I’d have gotten Korda/Botic wrong. Anyway, Moutet and Cachin is a pretty good matchup but Moutet has a much more chiseled offense than Holt and Bedene and he’s likely to be in equal shape to go the distance. Cachin is on two 5 setter which is a lot of time on court, so I’m expecting Moutet to be able to work the points well enough to cross the finish line. I do think Cachin’s solid play and speed will let him avoid too much of the Moutet dropshot parade, but Moutet has more ways to win here and is fresher. Moutet in 4.

Paul vs Ruud :

I’m not sure Tommy Paul realizes what a roller coaster he’s just put his fans through. After winning the first set 6-0, I really didn’t expect him to lose the next two sets. Once he did, I thought “here’s the Korda magic that’s the reason he’s undefeated against Paul”. Bad ideas come in bunches, and Tommy proceeded to win a thrilling fifth set where he broke midway through and was able to hang on in the end. Tommy Paul is able to compete at the top level on hardcourt since he has such a great serve and forehand. His backhand is good enough to play even in most exchanges, and his footspeed is top tier. There’s a good chance that he’s actually a small favorite here, but the 5 setters can always impact the players ability to go the distance in the next round. Casper Ruud is a really hard worker, and this won’t be easy for Paul.

Casper was rated pretty darn high (an 8 to 1 favorite) and he delivered, but it involved some scary moments. Tim Van Rijthoven’s serve makes him a threat in any match, and it was only once he tapered off that Ruud started to look like a guaranteed win. The price for this match is significantly lower(around -180) and it looks like the range at which Ruud could fall here. I would make this an even contest, but for the fact that Tommy has gone 5 sets in both of his first rounds. It’s not particularly the physical toll but the struggle to close out quickly/maintain his level that bothers me. Once Ruud locks in he tends to stay there for the duration of the match, and this season he’s been getting better and better on hardcourt. For that reason, I like him if the match goes deep. Paul should win the early exchanges behind his serve, and I’d expect him to also drop a set or two due to errors. He plays a very aggressive style and Ruud’s defending is a lot better than Korda’s. In the end, I almost think Ruud is ready to level up on hardcourt, but this will be a big test of whether he’s ready to challenge for the title in later rounds. Paul in 4 or Ruud in 5.

Musetti vs Ivashka :

In the first round Musetti played a guy who was extremely good from the baseline but lacked a serve and enough offense to hit through him. In the second round he played a guy with a huge serve (Brouwer) and a forehand that was hitting clean winners in the first half of the match. Musetti overcame both tests admirably, and his reward is someone with both of these attributes. Ivashka has just beaten Hurkacz in a very strong performance. He was able to return and keep Hurkacz pinned to the baseline, and he didn’t give up many errors from there. Hurkacz hung tough but his first serve wasn’t there tonight, and playing a few feet behind the baseline meant he found the net with a number of shots. Musetti’s plan thus far has been to outlast his opponents. He has some good pop on his serve, but it isn’t going to keep Ivashka from getting into rallies. It isn’t a done deal for Musetti once they get on even terms from the baseline though, since his defense is world-class and he has the ability to infuse pace when he wants to.

Even though Ivashka will like his chances here, he didn’t exactly hit winners against Hurkacz. He got the benefit of a lot of impatient errors and this should be a much longer contest. Ivashka in form is a favorite here, but it should be a long one. Ivashka in 4.

Nakashima vs Sinner :

Is Nakashima ready for the big time? This is a great opportunity for him to play one of the most promising phenoms on tour, and one who has had some lapses in concentration on tour. Today Nakashima had a high profile opponent, and despite being the weaker player throughout most of the first set, Nakashima won in straight sets. The first set tiebreaker was extremely tense, and it was pretty clear that neither player really had a sense of whether they’d win or not. In the end, Dimitrov double faulted three times in a row to lose, and that’s been the story for Dimitrov for quite some time. He plays well but seems to freeze a little in the moment. In his defense, Nakashima is a tough puzzle to solve. He’s very consistent and there are a few swings that he is able to produce without error on offense. He gets to net when he has the chance pretty reliably, and all of this really allowed him to capitalize on Dimitrov’s mistakes and indecision. This was a good win, but it’ll take a lot more defending to get past Sinner.

Jannik Sinner and Eubanks had a rally terrific match, with Eubanks backing himself in baseline rallies and seeing some great results. He still made some errors sending the ball too deep with his backhand, but it’s great to see him making improvements from the baseline in terms of belief and consistency in execution. Sinner had his hands full trying to put returns in play, but he’s able to turn things up when he needs to and generally his level at that point is good enough to beat everyone outside the top ten. In this one I’d be surprised if Nakashima were able to win, but he can make things very difficult. Sinner tends to play at one speed and Brandon is a tremendous baseliner so he may lock in. Rally tolerance edge goes to Sinner though, and I think he’s just a cut above Nakashima in every department. Sinner in 3-4.

Cilic vs Evans :

Marin Cilic was his usual responsible self (feels weird to say) against ARV. He had early leads in most sets, but what really impressed me is how well he was able to retrieve control of the match when he went down a break a few times later in the match. That sort of lockdown baselining in return games is a really good sign, and he’ll need it against Dan Evans. Evans has been cruising through this draw, notching a straight sets win against Vesely in round one, and running through Duckworth fairly quickly. He had a big letdown in the 3rd set where he went from up a break to losing the set and going down a break in the 4th, but he was able to challenge Duckworth in enough return games to halt the run and get the job done in 4.

Cilic will likely dominate the early portions of this match. His serve is a cannon and he hits bigger off both wings than Evans. This is especially true on the backhand wing, where Evans prefers to go to slices. I’d worry about Cilic in the late stages of this match. In Evans great run in Montreal, he was constantly making late charges once his opponent’s offense dropped off. Since ARV made good progress late in the 2nd and in the third, I would expect Evans to also. Given that he won their previous meeting on hardcourt, he probably will be comfortable tactically against Marin. Overall, this feels a bit like Paul vs Ruud #2. I’ll side with the better defender here in hot conditions. Evans in 5.

Brooksby vs Alcaraz :

PLAYERS ARE READY THANK YOUOOOOOO. This comment is irrelevant to the post but the umpires in tennis constantly make me laugh with the theatrical way they announce things. Jenson Milton Fenton Brooksby III played a good match of tennis today. Oddsmakers gave him the nod making him even odds against one of the hottest names of the month, and he delivered. This match could have gone either way, but Brooksby constantly won the big points. He served a number of aces set point down in the second set, and he really hung in there and let Coric hit him around until Coric’s forehand fell apart. Backhand to backhand Brooksby also looked a bit more willing to redirect down the line, and Coric’s serve wasn’t as good in the key moments as Brooksby’s. It’s a great win, but there is no reprieve in this section of the draw. Carlos Alcaraz has had a great warmup match against Coria, and he’ll be a really big step up in competition for Brooksby.

Alcaraz had a bit of trouble late against Coria, but it was the pressure to end the match in three that really got to him. Against Brooksby, there are no expectations about scoreline so he’ll be able to play a bit freer. Problems for Alcaraz will only be unforced errors. He’s the bigger hitter off both wings and isn’t going to have fatigue issues like Coric did. If anything, he gets better as a match goes on. Brooksby puts the extra ball in play routinely though, and he keeps his backhand low or deep on almost all occasions. That coupled with his gamesmanship and solid courtsense mean that he’s a bit of a problem to hit through. Luckily, Alcaraz has a great coaching section and will understand that this is an equation of patience. Carlos is serving fairly well this week, and I think his power can actually force Brooksby into some errors. He shanked some forehands he was trying to guide down the line against Coric because of the weight of shot, and he looked like he was juuuuust barely hanging in rallies with his backhand when they traded crosscourt. Should be a very close match but Alcaraz is physically stronger at this stage in their career. Alcaraz in 4-5.

Norrie vs Rune :

These two have just played in Montreal and the oddsmakers gave a bit of respect to Rune (made him only +220ish). He backed it up by winning a set and playing a competitive match before falling in a third by a single break. A day off is a great thing for a young player trying to make a deep run at a major, so the forfeit win from Isner today was very welcome. Experience and rest make Rune a decent shout to challenge Rune here, and the relatively close contest Norrie has just played with Sousa add in to that belief. It’s tricky, because we know Norrie isn’t going to give up much. We also know Rune can get a bit impatient. He has good power though and his top tier game can win a set against Norrie for sure. I’d expect them to trade the opening sets and for Norrie to pull away from there. It isn’t just about outlasting Rune, Norrie seems to be able to get into a rhythm from the baseline that is nearly impossible to hit through without fatiguing yourself. Norrie in 4-5.

Shapovalov vs Rublev :

Every time I tuned in, Shapo was serving an incredible serve or hitting some huge forehand. He gets less out of more consistently on the court, and it’s crazy for a player of this caliber to feel like a big underdog here. Shapo is faster than Rublev, has a better serve, a similarly dangerous forehand, and a much more varied backhand. Rublev is just far more efficient recently, and that’s why he’ll have an edge here. If Shapovalov plays his best tennis, sure he can win, but that tennis is rare for the past season or so. If Rublev goes up in the scoreline, I do think Shapovalov in lockdown mode can stop him from scoring. This is a shootout where one guy is just going for much safer shots. Rublev is driving the ball to safe targets with power, and Shapovalov is trying to hit winners while also posing. It feels harsh and I don’t count Shapovalov out here, but based on their previous rounds this is Rublev in 4.

Schwartzman vs Tiafoe :

I just want you to know that Alexei Popyrin was 0/12 on break points in set 1. That is an absurd number, and two of those games where had break points were 0-40 in his favor. It was a miraculous escape by Schwartzman, but this match was there for the taking by Popyrin and he just didn’t execute. If you’re not able to produce in the big moments, it’s easy to point to mental weakness or lack of strategy, but the real thing you can change quickly is physical strength. It would really help Popyrin’s redline-heavy approach if he were carrying a bit more upper body strength. We see Nadal produce huge shots from crazy spots, but we never consider that part of the ability to do that is based in physical training. Anyway, Diego is through against another offensive talent, and his reward is, an offensive talent?

I think Tiafoe will win this. He’s just worked through two very consistent and ver hard-working players in Giron and Kubler. Both have a better serve than Diego, both are similarly consistent on hardcourt, and Tiafoe’s serving and forehand was able to take the racquet out of both their hands. Diego will look to drag this out as he did to his first few opponents, but I think Tiafoe’s forehand is good enough to capitalize on Diego’s serving woes where Popyrin and Sock (due to too much Sock) couldn’t. Tiafoe in 3-4.

Gasquet vs Nadal :

Nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row. I wonder if Gasquet knows how entertaining his matches with Nadal are. He clearly has never had a great chance to win, but he has always pushed himself to continue fighting even when the scoreline is against him. Fognini is currently putting on a great show against Nadal, and I expect Gasquet to also, but they’re just not able to impose themselves on offense AND outlast Nadal on defense. It’s hard to beat Nadal. The good news for Gasquet is this is probably his best chance to win. Nadal has dropped a set in each of his first two matches, and he hasn’t looked completely like himself during rallies yet. That level will improve throughout the tournament as it usually does, but it’s nearing the end of Nadal’s career and at some point cracks in the armor are going to be permanent. Even as I type that sentence, I’m aware of how ridiculous it is. Nadal isn’t sporting armor, he’s just really that good, and that doesn’t fade since a champion’s understanding of the game tends to rise as their body fades. Nadal in the same 4 he gave to everyone else.

WTA Singles :

Swiatek vs Davis :

Swiatek finished off Stephens’ US Open run with some solid play. Stephens looked at her box for assistance a few times, but it wasn’t really her fault here. Iga is playing at the level she was when she went on the massive RG run, and her pace of shot is good enough to hit through even Sloane’s incredible defense. Up next is a bit of a gift, as Lauren Davis has taken down Alexandrova whose power may have proven a more difficult test for Swiatek. Davis is a really solid baseliner who moves the ball effortlessly, but her serve is just not dangerous enough to keep Swiatek from taking over this match. Swiatek in 2.

Zheng vs Neimeier :

Julie Neimeier is so smooth. She seems like she’s been on tour all her life, and the ease and composure with which she took down Yulia Putintseva was very enjoyable. These are the challenges (Tormo, Putintseva, Tsurenko) for young players that are such mental tests, but Neimeier seems legit. I’d expect her to get into the top 50 next year, and this is a good chance for her to show her mettle. Zheng had a marathon with Potapova, and it’s the second round in a row where she played against huge power and didn’t vary her game. Zheng’s serve is netting her a lot of free points, she rarely double faults, and her power seems to be repeatable without error. Neimeier is a more stable offensive talent than her last two opponents, but Zheng should have a little bit too much firepower for her to win the match. If (big if) Neimeier can win this match, her game has gone up a level from what she’s brought so far this season. Zheng in 2 close sets.

Muguruza vs Kvitova :

Watch out. The queen of doing nothing for half a year then winning a major title is back. Muguruza may have gone down 4-1 in the second set, but her play in the first was very good. This is on the heels of best Tauson with some solid play from the baseline. For me, it’s the best tennis Muguruza has played in a while and her serving has been decent at the same time. Garbiñe has just gone way up in my mind as far as who has a shot to win this event, and Kvitova is the next step up in opponent that she’ll need to overcome to do so. Petra got a walkover from Kalinina, and she ended her first round on a good note winning 6-0 against Andreeva. I don’t think she can dominate things the same way against Muguruza though. She’ll have a small edge on serve, and Kvitova’s power can force Muguruza into errors since she’s the biggest hitter she’s played since she started actually hitting the ball in the court (cerca this week).

While Kvitova is a big step up, she’s also a matchup nightmare for Mugu. Petra is 5-0, but there are things to consider here outside that metric. Kvitova hasn’t been at her best this season, and she had a slow start against Andreeva. Muguruza is in a good rhythm from the baseline and on serve. Kvitova won their last matchup as a +160 underdog, and that is actually what Muguruza is priced as here. It’s not ideal to read into the prices too much, but the H2H is enough to consider that the books are giving a decent shot to Muguruza here by only making her +160 on the back end of her very public slump. I partially expect the upset here. Muguruza in 3.

Yuan vs Pegula :

Great win for Yuan. Begu got going in the second and was up a break but Yuan just kept hitting the ball solid. Begu was visibly frustrated that she wasn’t able to impose her offense, and the early second set lapse that Yuan had on her forehand wing only ushered in more resilience on her part. It’s a great run, but she’s running into a very bad matchup for her. Jessica Pegula has just played two perfect matches. Sasnovich came in bringing a very high level of offense on her forehand from the baseline, and Pegula shut her down. It’s funny to watch players completely stumped as Pegula just returns ball after ball with pace and to safe targets. When she does get inside the baseline, her shot selection is excellent and she holds her shots very well which forces her opponents to reveal their movement. Yuan can have good rallies here, but she likely won’t score as much. Pegula won’t get frustrated like Begu did, and Yuan has played an extra 3 matches coming through qualifying. Pegula in 1 close and 1 lopsided set.

Martic vs Azarenka :

Interesting stuff here. Badosa looked physically unwell during the first set against Martic, and was relaying this to her box. It’s hard to overcome heat or an injury, but it seemed like Martic picked up on this and started really pushing the issue in the second. This one became a runaway, and Martic has really salvaged a dismal season in the past few months. Can Martic beat Azarenka? Sure. Will she? Not so sure. Azarenka was able to outlast Kostyuk as she did Krueger, and these players had chances but mostly they seemed to play Vika into form. Kostyuk didn’t want to shake hands at net, and well, yeah. War is never anything good, and there are no simple or fittingly comprehensive ways to view any aspects of it or interactions for the people involved (even just by nationality). Kostyuk already doesn’t take losses well, so it’s not surprising that she was frustrated here. A lot of armchair rage online on behalf of Azarenka, who likely is not even angry at Kostyuk.

Azarenka’s consistency is similar to Badosa’s, but Paola wasn’t playing her best at this event. I expect Martic to have a hard time scoring, and once Azarenka can open things up to Martic’s backhand she should be able to frustrate her opponent and win. Azarenka in 2.

Bencic vs Pliskova :

Belinda Bencic has put in a request to never play Cirstea again. She lost their last match and she was down in this one as well. Cirstea served for it and Bencic was very lucky to break and win this in three. I don’t think it’ll affect her ability to compete in this next round, as Cirstea is just a very tough matchup for any power hitter on tour. I liked Bouzkova against Pliskova, and was quickly proven wrong. Bouzkova had trouble landing backhands in the court, and didn’t serve so well. She had momentum early in the second but couldn’t land the break, and Pliskova is looking scary right now. This feels a bit like Hurkacz vs Ivashka. Both have tremendous offenses, but Bencic is a bit more durable and Pliskova will need to win the sprint in the first in order to get through. With her serving it’s entirely possible. As I’m writing this the books still haven’t released a price for this, and it’s very tough to say who will come out on top here. I’d expect another pickem to be floated, and I give a slight edge to Pliskova in execution at the moment. Pliskova in 3.

Collins vs Cornet :

This would be a marathon if not for Cornet’s previous match. She battled it out with Siniakova but was extremely physically stressed in the third set. Her nausea/difficulty breathing was so visible that Siniakova actually complained, and it was half a fair complaint because the issues did not seem to keep her from putting the ball in play. Siniakova got frustrated, and she lost to errors in this one. Cornet made it through, but physically I don’t think she’ll be able to outcompete Collins after that match. Collins endured a late comeback from Bucsa in the second, and though she came in rusty she’s finding a nice level. I expect her to have a field day on Cornet’s serve, and would not be overly surprised if Cornet was suffering from heat exhaustion and had to withdraw before this next clash. Collins in 2.

Burel vs Sabalenka :

Burel into a third round at a major is just perfect. She’s lost some close third setters on tour and struggling to notch wins can impact the freedom a young player plays with. She’s past Rybakina and AVU with steady play, and it’s the same formula here against Sabalenka. The tricky part is that Sabalenka is in decent form. She had a lucky comeback win against Kanepi, but Kaia was playing really solid and the Sabalenka in 3 story is one that is fairly reliable. Sabalenka has proven that the overall pressure her hitting applies is good enough to slow her opponent’s offense down, and once she finds half a rhythm she’s pretty much unplayable. Burel will be gifted some patches of bad play, and the usual double faults, but I think Kanepi’s power was most of what gave Sabalenka trouble. Since Burel is through two great offensive tests, I’d expect her to have patches of games where she’s doing well, I just think she’s at a very big disadvantage her in ballstriking and Sabalenka is looking fairly motivated here. Sabalenka in 2 close sets or 3 lopsided sets.

Marino vs Zhang :

Shuai Zhang has been the most consistent player on tour in the past few weeks, and her run might continue here. Rebecca Marino has a great serve, and her backhand is extremely strong. She was able to outduel Snigur who beat Halep by hitting the ball big and basically baiting Snigur into trying to produce the same crafty offense. The result was Snigur errors. Marino is probably the best player Zhang has played in this event, so it should be a close match. I think Zhang’s ability to move the ball will be tough on Marino though. Rebecca is capable of trading power very well, but she isn’t the fastest lateral mover and I think Zhang is consistent enough to hang in the match until she finds a read on Marino’s serve. This one should be very close since Marino really can hold serve against just about anyone and both are fairly fresh. Zhang in 3.

Keys vs Gauff :

It’s getting to that time where I have to admit I’m not sure who’s going to win this. Keys had to mount a huge comeback in the fourth against Giorgi (2-5 down in the third), but she did it. She had to outduel a difficult offensive test, but she did it. She’s always a risk for unforced errors, but she’s winning. Keys’ ability and results in the past merit respect. She’s serving fairly well, and is one of the biggest hitters on tour. These balls don’t exactly make her shots go slower either. It’ll be a good measure of Gauff’s problem solving if she gets through here. Keys won their previous meeting in Adelaide earlier this year in three, but I think Gauff can reverse things here. It will, however, require her first serve to land. If she’s above 60% first serves for the match, I think she wins. GO AHEAD AND SEND IBM WATSON HOME, I’M THE ONE CHURNING OUT OBVIOUS NUMBERY MATCH PREDICTIONS NOW.

Gauff is a future #1, but compartmentalizing the moment is the main battle for now. There will be periods where Keys outhits her, and she needs to stay committed to hitting the court even if she feels like she’s giving up control. Giorgi is a lot worse on defense than Gauff, and she almost got through. Gauff in 3.

Andreescu vs Garcia :

The price for this one interests me. Andreescu opened as a pickem against Haddad Maia, and proceeded to roll her in two quick sets. BHM did make a lot of forehand errors trying to match Andreescu’s power, but Bianca played great and was very focused. The usual second set lapse wasn’t there either (BHM did see one break opportunity when she had the lead but she sailed a forehand long). Now after that dominant performance, Garcia is a -140 favorite. I have enjoyed Garcia’s run. She has looked dominant here. You can be sure though that tons of people saw Andreescu dominate her last match and are rushing in to bet on her though, so +120 indicates that the books are more scared of Garcia’s ability than they are of exposure on Andreescu’s side. It doesn’t mean Garcia wins, but it’s a nod towards her having a shot.

Andreescu is the more cerebral player here, but she’s not the better server. Garcia has a bigger forehand outright, but Andreescu is probably better at reflecting power off both wings. It’ll be who can hug the baseline better, and I don’t think there is a lot to clearly separate them here. This should be really good, but I don’t think Garcia will give Andreescu as many unforced errors as BHM did. Garcia in 3.

Riske-Armitraj vs Wang :

Riske spent much of the third set pounding her chest and roaring. It was a pretty spirited match,and she made a huge comeback from 4-1 down in the third. After the match, the camera people cut to Stephen Armitraj who shouted “FLUFF YEAH” right then unfortunately. It was a great comeback, but Wang is a big step up from Osorio. Riske doesn’t necessarily have to wind up in a third set with Osorio, but I don’t think she’ll be able to impose her offense in rallies as she was against Osorio against Wang. Add in that Wang’s just been through a really difficult test against Sakkari, and she’ll be feeling fairly confident. Wang in 3.

Jabeur vs Rogers :

Shelby I love ya but if I have to watch your bag check one more time I’m going to throw my TV in a lake. Rogers is quietly working her way through this draw (unless you’re Tennis Channel), and she has an interesting matchup here against one of the tour’s best players. Jabeur and Rogers are very similar. Both have fairly good serves, but the basis of their games is a heavy forehand. As a result, I’d expect this to be pretty close. Jabeur had a very difficult time with Mandlik who doesn’t have nearly the pace on her shots that Rogers does, and Rogers has had a decent warmup against Kuzmova who hits the ball huge. I’m not sure Rogers is ready to notch this type of win at the moment, since she’s having a middling NA swing, but it should be competitive and at +150 Rogers is certainly priced within a reasonable range to win (Jabeur is usually a very inflated market). Rogers in 3.

Kudermetova vs Galfi :

A lot of the Halep/Sakkari style warriors who usually take Kudermetova out are disappearing from the draw, and it could be time for her to go very deep. She had a stylistic bonus against Zanevska, and this next match is one where her ability to extend rallies will likely be very important. Dalma Galfi is starting to deliver on the hype, and while her leg is always taped up she seems to be playing at 100%. Galfi hits the ball huge, and if that affects her opponent she’s likely to win. She basically knocked over Dart, who looked a bit tired from her marathon upset against Kasatkina. I don’t think her percentages are good enough to beat Kudermetova yet, but it’s always dangerous as a junior standout starts to get comfortable on tour. Kudermetova in 2.

Samsonova vs Krunic :

Krunic beat Krejcikova, and I somewhat thought she might,but I’m still not sure how. I watched Krejcikova dominate in the first set. Krunic had extreme trouble holding, and was broken early in the second as well. The heat has gotten to a number of players this week, and I’m guessing Krejcikova physically hit a wall in this one as Krunic ran away with the third. The result is huge for a player who’s been stuck off tour for a while, but it’s the end of the road. Samsonova is playing her best tennis ever, and she looked dominant against Fernandez. Samsonova in 2.

Tomljanovic vs Williams :

Serena pulled off a great upset so the career recap sad/inspirational thoughts can wait at least another day. The electric atmosphere that she is bringing to tennis right now is pretty great, and it boosts her chances a great deal. Kontaveit was treated pretty unfairly by the crowd, who lost all semblance of etiquette in their goal of willing Serena into the next round, but this final US Open is a spectacle that is once in a lifetime, and people can be forgiven their excitement just like turtles can be forgiven for putting too many commas in one sentence. It’ll take someone playing with a chip on their shoulder to take Serena down at this point, and Kontaveit’s struggles this season just left her a little too rusty to get the job done. Ajla Tomljanovic beat Rodina in round two, and I owe Rodina a huge apology. Not only did she nearly win this match, but she did so by playing tremendous tennis and serving well.

Can Tomljanovic win? She has the power to rush Serena into errors (this is how Andreescu beat her in their matches), but her consistency isn’t great. It should be a very close match, which makes me a bit nervous that the crowd will overcome Ajla as it did Kontaveit. Add in that Serena is serving well, and playing better than usual (2022 usual) from the baseline, and she has a good chance to wind up in the third round. I like Tomljanovic’s chances here, but a fairy tale run doesn’t seem too farfetched especially since Serena has elected to dress a bit like a princess this week. Tomljanovic in 3.