2022 USO Men's & Women's Round Four Writeup

Today is haiku Saturday so there will be some haikus. They will 100% deteriorate in quality and relevance as we go. Disclaimer : If you or a loved one has been haikuing, you are not alone. Help is available. Call the hotline at 1-800-H-A-I-K-U-N-O

ATP Singles :

Medvedev vs Kyrgios :

Once upon a time, two stickbugs came upon a ball, a servefest ensued.

This has potential to be the best match of the tournament. Yibing Wu came into last night playing extremely sharp. He had overcome two tour level challenges in Basilashvili and Borges and his ballstriking was looking extremely clean. This trend continued against Daniil and Yibing spent two solid hours dictating play. He crushed the ball off both wings and served moderately well. He returned hyper-aggressively and attacked second serves. He got to net every time he could and kept the pressure on Daniil. None of it mattered. Medvedev’s defense is on a tier that generates big 3 vibes. I watched this match for what felt like two full sets before I finally saw Medvedev miss a rally ball for no reason. Wu came up with shot after shot and hit everything with full commitment, but Medvedev is just a wall. It’s the attribute that makes him being able to hammer down aces so valuable. Medvedev saved 7/8 break points faced, and a good chunk of them were with clean aces. He wasn’t looking that locked in coming into this match, but he is now. For Wu, I would have liked him to accept the defensive role a bit more. He constantly directed the ball into the net position, but I think Medvedev might miss a bit more if you don’t give him pace to reflect. Hoping Medvedev misses is a pretty hopeful stretch, but Medvedev seemed to enjoy the exchanges and Wu did eventually miss the 7th or 8th shot. It made for an entertaining match, and if Wu improves his hands/choices at net I think he can land inside the top 40 by this time next season.

Kyrgios and Wolf was hotly anticipated, but Kyrgios shut down the hype. His serve we know, his forehand we know, but Kyrgios has mad pretty solid improvements to the stability of his backhand. He was able to hit clean winners in the crosscourt exchanges, and he looks more willing to stay in them this season. As an announcer pointed out, when you’re playing a lot of tennis you get in shape whether you train or not, and Kyrgios has been playing a lot of tennis. His stamina seems better, and he’s playing a guy his serve can get him to equal terms with. Kyrgios is still yelling at his box, but he’s winning while he does it. This match has turned into a confrontational serving contest in the past, as both race to throw in quick service games and both walk around like they’re brimming with confidence. The good news, they want it too much for confidence to matter. These two are going to deliver unreal quality serving, and the height of the two players mean they’ll likely be able to return more than previous opponents.

Kyrgios has the bigger serve, but he’ll have a hard time winning rallies. His forehand is great, but it doesn’t have the pure pace necessary to pressure Medvedev. Nick’s backhand is fairly flat which is great on these courts, but Medvedev is happy to stay in bh to bh exchanges for the rest of the year if need be. Add in that Kyrgios has just beaten Medvedev in Montreal, and it is likely that Med will be extremely willing to put in whatever physical effort is necessary to get this win. I think he will. Kyrgios is sunrunning. This is the best tennis he’s ever played and he has a cannon of a serve. He is finally good enough to challenge for majors, but emotionally he is less durable than his opponent. Medvedev has been playing these high profile matches are majors for 3-4 seasons now, and he’s likely to navigate the big moments better. Kyrgios is in better shape, but the grueling rallies that Medvedev traps his opponent in will either for Nick into low percentage shots, or will gradually take his legs and his lungs from him. I’d expect 2-3 tiebreakers for sure, but Medvedev is the player who I think is more likely to play well with and without the lead. This is a rematch of the Australian Open clash that saw Medvedev win in 4, and Kyrgios is a bit better at this time. Still think the lack of experience will lead to slight errors and overthinking on his part, but this is going to be a treat. Go stickbugs! Go tennis! Go Broncos! Medvedev in 5.

Carreño-Busta vs Khachanov :

Pablo Carreño-Busta is one of the most technically focused player on tour. His swing production is clearly very coached and his shot patterns are brilliantly crafted like most of the Spanish Federation players. He doesn’t go for wild offense and his dropshots are incredibly measured. Yet when De Minaur snuck one over his head facing match point in the fourth set, Pablo ran back and executed a perfect tweener lob. It’s this technical savvy coupled with great tennis sense that make Pablo so difficult to play. He plays conservatively, but hits the right shot regardless of the situation. De Minaur really worked hard, but it felt throughout like PCB was the one more able to infuse pace without making his shots low percentage. The fourth could have gone either way, so Pablo will be happy to have this done quick.

Up next for Pablo is Karen Khachanov, who will feel a bit like he’s freerolling this tournament. Khachanov served with great power and accuracy in the first set against Jack Draper, but his offense seemed to fade a bit as the second got going. Draper started to recognize his patterns, and he was able to get a late break of serve and win the set. In the third Draper was up another break, and serving for the set when he seemed to tweak his knee. Having recently partially torn my meniscus, the sudden confused look at the instability looked very familiar (AH YES I CAN DIAGNOSE THIS IM THE FOREMOST TURTLE DOCTOR YES OF COURSE THE MENISCUS JUST AS I THOUGHT THE MENISCUS #idkwhatswrongwithhisknee #notadoctor #wafflesforbrains. Jack has had some injury issues in the past, so he didn’t panic, but after getting broken and consulting with the doctor he had to withdraw. Wishing him a speedy recovery of course, and his team may want to consider a lighter load for him next season even though it’s likely to impact his ranking.

It’s easy to say that Pablo’s recent form makes him a heavy favorite here, but there is a lot of trouble in that prediction when you consider the h2h. Khachanov has beaten him in their last three hardcourt matches, and has won 5 of the last 7. A few of these took place in 2021, so they don’t exactly factor in Pablo’s new Montreal level but they are fairly recent. PCB wins by running his opponents around and by isolating their backhands with inside out forehands. His defending is impeccable and he takes care of his serve moderately well even though it’s not the largest offering. Khachanov unfortunately takes a similar approach. He’s content to drive the ball from the baseline and stays in fairly safe patterns. He’s willing to rally all day and wins behind his weight of shot and his serve. Karen definitely has a better serve here, and physical durability may actually play a factor. Pablo was the bigger hitter against De Minaur, but he isn’t here. I’d expect Pablo money to flood in, but I’d be somewhat wary of this one. Another high level affair as both (despite the almost Draper loss) are playing some of their best tennis ever. Carreño-Busta in 5.

Berrettini vs Davidovich Fokina :

This one feels similar to the match above in terms of the underdog’s threat level. Berrettini is an extremely consistent performer at majors. His serve is good enough to get him through matches where he’s making backhand errors, and he generally only loses to the guys who end up in the finals. He was fairly dominant against Andy Murray, who looked fairly spent after losing the first set. The thing that was a little disconcerting was how often Berrettini had and could not convert break points. Murray was exhausted, and making some tactical errors, and Berrettini still took 4 sets to close this out. I thought Murray went to Berrettini’s forehand a bit too often in this. When he had offense, he’d set up for the obvious play to Matteo’s backhand, but he’d change last minute and hit to the forehand. Very deceptive, and it can feel like the obvious play is well defended, but you have to establish your insistence on peppering the backhand to really open up the forehand corner. Murray never did the work, he just kept looking for the surprise. Berrettini is always one forehand away from even in a rally, so it was risky. Murray was completely spent at one point in the third, and a fan unfortunately had some heat issues in the stands. The break gave Murray a chance to catch his breath, or this would have been a straight sets L.

Honestly, it’s great for Murray to keep playing, and it’s a momentous experience for a young player to navigate to the win against a legend on such a big stage. I feel the same about Serena. She can retire, but anytime she wants to get out there and battle she should be welcome on tour. Ajla may not win the title, but she’ll remember that match with Serena forever. Speaking of legends, one has to include Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Ok I went too far, but the ponytail is pretty cool. ADF got past Galan in 4, and it was a battle as he was down a break in the fourth. He has the game to expose Berrettini’s weakness (the backhand), and his proclivity for rushing the net will be excellent here since Berrettini’s backhand slice doesn’t have the pace to hit passes generally and his two-hander struggles to maintain height. Fokina’s ability to redirect pace and his general footspeed will give him a leg up on Murray’s ability to defend. The big caveat to ADF winning is going to be his consistency, and Berrettini’s serve. ADF has had a few matches he was the better player in, and he has been in a rush to get through. I love the commitment to offense, but Berrettini is likely to hold his serve if he gets a cheap break so Fokina will need to temper things a bit. ADF actually won their only previous meeting, but it came on clay. I think this will be surprisingly close like the PCB Khachanov match. Berretini in 5.

Moutet vs Ruud :

hello tennis fans, would you like to see some rage? if so, here’s Moutet

Corentin Moutet really struggled to keep it together against Pedro Cachin,and Cachin’s physical strength and tennis this week were incredibly impressive. He’s going to be a really tough on clay next season, and the bonus points from hardcourt will get him into a pretty reliable spot in the top 100. For now, Moutet’s best effort on offense was able to hit through him. That peak Moutet will be necessary in the next round, but I don’t like Corentin’s chances of competing fully throughout this match. Casper Ruud saw off Tommy Paul in a really tight 5 sets that basically looked like Ruud was the better player throughout. Casper Ruud’s backhand has developed into a solid tool, and his high delivery which was somewhat error-prone on hardcourt has been scrapped for a flatter ball. He’s been able to send the ball down the line also to great effect. His serving is much improved, and overall Casper Ruud is starting to look like a guy who only really will lose to a mercurial offensive performance. The format of the majors also makes endurance a factor, and Ruud’s clay pedigree means that he’s unlikely to get tired. The guy just seems more professional about his preparation than a lot of other guys his age, and it’s starting to pay off as the younger names are now in the mix for titles. I am currently working (when very high) on a musical called Casper Ruud : King of Clay, and I look forward to getting to learn more about his training and personality when he ultimately sues me.

I don’t think Moutet is a threat to win this match outright, but his variety and his ability to drag opponents into tricky frontcourt exchanges will give him a shot. He is able to infuse a lot of power with his forehand at times, and he’s been a big match player for quite some time so this should be entertaining. In the end though, Ruud is willing to do the work and doesn’t have to redline to get there. Moutet spent half the Cachin match screaming at his box, and these temper tantrums do not improve his game. If anything, they inspire his opponent to keep their head down and keep pushing. Ruud in 3-4.

Ivashka vs Sinner :

This should be excellent. Sinner has just gotten done hitting through Brandon Nakashima. The match was close for the first two sets, but as usual Sinner is able to hit a second gear that most of his lower ranked opponents can’t. He’ll have to hit that gear again and for longer in this match. Ilya Ivashka has a good serve, and he has rallied even with the likes of Nadal on tour. He just outlasted Musetti who is slowly becoming a wall, and his physical maturity is a bit better than Sinner’s. Where I think Sinner has the edge here is in his new coach. Darren Cahill is a great calming influence, and Sinner is going for big offense out there but he doesn’t seem to be forcing the issue as much. Ivashka will push this deep, but Sinner should be able to wear down his defenses as he’s hitting his forehand inside in with nearly ungettable pace. For Ivashka, a long match is ideal, but he’ll have to hope for Sinner’s legs to fatigue for him to get across the finish line and the announcers have made a lot of noise about Sinner’s new strength and conditioning training. Sinner in 4-5.

Cilic vs Alcaraz :

Marin Cilic did some kind of robot dance at the end of his match with Evans, and I want to see more of that. All future winners should honor us with a robot dance. I bow to you, robot dancers. Cilic has lost the last two of these matchups with Alcaraz in straight sets, and that’s not a good sign since one of them was just recently in Cincinnati. Cilic is a great frontrunner, and he’s been able to win the first set in most of his matches this year, but Alcaraz seems to be able to wear him down a bit. The second set in the last one was 6-1, and a confident Alcaraz seems to be a different level of player so far in his career. Alcaraz was pretty much dominant from start to finish today against Brooksby, and that’s straight setting a guy who just straight setted a guy who won Cincinnati (Coric). I’d expect Cilic to be in the mix in the first set, and for him to gradually fade as the match goes on. The reason being that his serve tends to lose a little pop and his forehand can throw in some shanks as things wear on. Alcaraz in 4.

Norrie vs Rublev :

I’ll be honest. Today is the first time I heard Rune’s voice. It’s so tiny <3. Rune was able to rush a few shots here and there and force Norrie into coughing up a short ball or two, but overall he’s not nearly consistent enough to beat Norrie. I thought there was some stylistic edge I didn’t see that let Rune win a set against Norrie last time, but it was likely just a fluke. Norrie beat him like he did something, and Rune, in the midst of almost breaking back in the second, spent his time insisting to the ref that Norrie was stalling. He pointed to Norrie catching his ball toss to gain more time. Even if it were true, the umpire can’t do anything unless it’s excessive. Also, YOU’RE RIGHT IN THE MATCH RUNE YOU MUPPET STOP DISTRACTING YOURSELF. After being denied the right to a public scolding of Norrie, Rune called the umpire crazy and stormed back to the court where he immediately made two impatient errors. Dude is young, but he needs some stern coaching to kinda shake him out of his tantrum mode.

Rublev throws a much more enjoyable level of tantrum, and while many people insist he needs some therapy or help, I think smashing yourself in the head with a tennis racquet is a perfectly natural reaction to losing a point to Shapovalov. Nadal is even starting to experiment with it, although from his reaction he’s likely one and done. El Rublevev and El Shapo put on a show today. There were a lot of errors but the ballstriking was incredible. I would say Shapovalov’s inside out forehand was his biggest weapon, but his biggest detriment seemed to be lack of matchplay. Rublev was just a bit more able to execute and he seemed more content to hang in rallies and hit to safe targets. Any match that ends in a fifth set tiebreaker could go either way, so Denis shouldn’t take this one too much to heart. For now, Rublev is through and he’s being given a lot of credit from oddsmakers (only +135 to open). I agree it’ll be close, and I’m not entirely sure what to expect the edge to be here. Norrie’s impeccable defense against Rublev’s unending power is a tough equation, and they’ve split their two previous meetings so it’s likely to be close again.

For my money, Rublev has had the harder path here. He’ll be extremely sharp from the baseline, and he’s one of the few players on tour with enough power to frustrate Norrie. Cam can certainly elevate his level here, and Rune coughing up errors did let Norrie have the day off from his peak level, but it’ll be a step up so Rublev almost starts this one on even terms for me. Norrie doesn’t have the power Shapovalov does so it’ll be tough for him to hurt Rublev also. If Andrey’s conditioning holds up, I like him in 5.

Tiafoe vs Nadal :

Tiafoe scored a very likely but hard fought win today. He was down a break in the first to Diego, he was down a break in the second to Diego, and he was down 6-3 in the first set tiebreaker. The problem for Schwartzman is he just isn’t scoring on his serve. Tiafoe was missing second serve returns in the first, but once he started landing them it was hard for Diego to really close out even when he had the advantage. I’d say two rounds ago that Tiafoe had a chance against Nadal, but Nadal gets better every round in a major and the trouble that Frances had with Diego’s defense means Nadal’s is going to quickly upend his chances if he doesn’t serve well. Nadal played Gasquet for the 400th time which is a testament to Gasquet’s quality play at majors. Getting to Nadal means you go home, but it also means that you are always making it to or near the second half of an event. The tricky thing with analyzing Nadal matches is how inevitable his win seems. Tiafoe can serve his way to the finish line in a set, and his forehand is a laser, but Nadal is a guy who is going to run you, make you play a number of balls, and take your legs out from under you. Diego was able to break Tiafoe a bunch, and Nadal is likely to as well. Tiafoe is a big match player but he can play for and to the crowd a bit as well so I worry he’ll enjoy this a bit too much to really strive for the win. Nadal in 3-4 competitive sets.

WTA Singles :

Swiatek vs Niemeier :

This is tricky. If Zheng is in this spot, I’m giving her a moderate chance to win. Swiatek was pretty much in control throughout against Lauren Davis, but she also spent a good chunk of the second set down a break and struggling to keep the ball in on offense. Her serve isn’t really firing here, but her forehand is and her backhand is very sharp despite some shanks. My favorite part of the match was when Davis had an easy ball at net and Iga resorted to jumping in the air with her arms and legs extended to try to distract Davis. Worth a shot, I guess. Zheng would have been a tough matchup for Swiatek, so Niemeier is likely to be in the same level of difficulty. Julie played tremendous ball today, never flinching against the talented junior and displaying her own variety and power. There are shades of Andreescu in her game, not in terms of shot production but in how natural the right choices seem for her. I’m starting to put on my upset hat, but this will be probably her biggest win on tour on the biggest stage.

Swiatek’s offense is unparalleled, but it ties into her serve heavily. She was at 60% first serves today which isn’t bad, but the second set letdown won’t work out against a solid offense like Niemeier. Swiatek fought her way back, but she’s still visibly upset when she’s down in the scoreline and the misses are more frequent when she is. I’m not sure if she’s feeling comfortable enough yet on hardcourt to reach her top gear when she actually is in trouble, and this match feels like trouble. Niemeier in 3.

Kvitova vs Pegula :

Big tall lady serve, lil tiny lady baseline, which one win the thing?

This is a tough one to call, but they all are at this point. Kvitova and Muguruza might have played the best match of the day, culminating in a 3rd set tiebreaker that went extra innings (12-10). Kvitova’s T serve was unreal today, and a good chunk of her aces came on second serves. It was necessary to hold off what looked to be the best level of tennis Muguruza has brought to tennis this year. She pressured Kvitova’s backhand throughout, and the path past Kvitova has always been her inability to control her length on the backhand wing. Really both players deserved to win here, and the exultation will be shortlived for Petra as she runs into another player peaking at just the right time.

Jessica Pegula may have dropped the second set to the hard-hitting Yue Yuan, but her play from the baseline this week has been as good as it gets. She’ll definitely have her work cut out for her trying to return Kvitova’s serves, since her wingspan is a good bit smaller than Muguruza’s. Where she’ll be a bit more stable is in her ability to reflect power. To be honest, there isn’t a great formula to decipher who’ll win here. Kvitova is 2-0 against Pegula, but she’s ranked maybe 18 spots below her, so the pickem price is somewhat hard to decipher. After the incredible play Kvitova displayed, and with that record, you’d almost think she’d be favored, but working against using that logic is the fact that Pegula is also a fairly large market and this tournament is in the US in a state that just legalized gambling. This means a large influx of “I’m going to be there I might as well bet” money and a lot of that tends to flow towards the recognizable American players in the WTA (with good reason, they can all ball). If I’m not getting info from the books, I tend to think it’s because there is a good deal of uncertainty surrounding the match. If Pegula can put returns in play she’ll win. Her speed and hitting are going to gradually wear down Kvitova’s backhand, but it’s a big ask to beat a player you never have when they’re serving well. Someone in 3.

Azarenka vs Pliskova :

Azarenka had a pretty simple task against Petra Martic, and she performed it admirably. Martic’s backhand is a safe target, and Azarenka was able to isolate this wing and open up the forehand side. When Azarenka sees her opponent struggling, her consistency goes up and she ran away with the second set. Up next is a player who will struggle to hang in long rallies, but who may not have to play them. Pliskova was able to beat Bencic in three today, which was a reversal of their previous match. It’s a good sign, and on the heels of Pliskova’s great serving in Montreal she has to like her chances here. Azarenka has had a less than stellar year, and her impenetrable defense has shown some cracks against big hitters like Krueger and Raducanu. Pliskova’s serving should give her a big edge here, since Azarenka is mostly putting hers in play this week. Even if Azarenka is able to capitalize on a poor service game or get Karolina into long rallies, Pliskova has shown that her endurance is capable of playing a solid third set. Pliskova in 2-3.

Collins vs Sabalenka :

For all the talk about upsets in the draw, this round has all the familiar names that go deep in events. The WTA can afford big upsets because it has such incredible depth. This is a spot where I’d normally enthusiastically want to back Collins, but the last two matches this has been a stylistic nightmare for her. Sabalenka has beaten her twice at this tournament, and the last two matches she’s won in straight sets and by multiple breaks. It’s hard to imagine such an inconsistent player dominating baseline rallies against Collins’s backhand (she also lowkey crushes her forehand), and it’s hard to imagine a player who struggles with double faults doing well against an aggressive returner, yet here we are.

Sabalenka lost only 2 games against Clara Burel, and she looks primed to repeat the big win against Collins. Collins was impressive in her resilience against Cornet, but the match was a bit closer than it maybe needed to be. Cornet was defending well, but never really hit offensive serves nor did she pressure Collins with her forehand. It was defense vs offense and Collins seemed to just barely have the edge. It feels crazy to say it, but Sabalenka will probably play consistent in this next match. The pace Collins hits at likely feeds into her own play, and Sabalenka is quietly working through this draw so there shouldn’t be too much pressure. Sabalenka in 2.

Zhang vs Gauff :

Zhang made quick work of Rebecca Marino, and finally we will see just where her current level is at. She’s been producing a ton of wins in the North American swing (9-4), and she’s hitting big off both wings. Her serve isn’t the strongest, but she moves it around the box well and double faults don’t really become an issue. It’ll require a focused effort to win this next match, but it isn’t outlandish. Gauff is through to the fourth round after dispatching compatriot Madison Keys in a match where Gauff was simply more consistent. Add in her solid serving on the day, and Keys didn’t have a great shot. Zhang will be more durable in rallies than Keys, so the question will be how aggressive Gauff plays. She has the bigger serve, and more power, but she can waver between playing too aggressive on offense which leads to balls in the net, and playing a bit too passive. Both give Zhang a shot, but Gauff should barely get the win here. In fact, Gauff and Zhang played in Miami and Zhang lost 7-6, 7-5 so a close match is likely on the menu again. With the home crowd and coming off a big win, I think Gauff can win in 2, but a first set win for Zhang could greatly impact her confidence.

Garcia vs Riske-Armitraj :

Unfortunately, Wang suffered some fitness issues against Riske-Armitraj and lost. It makes for an interesting matchup here though, as ARA has beaten Caroline Garcia in all their previous meetings. Alison is also playing some tenacious tennis, coming through two really complex three setters with a lot of morale boosting roars and USTA mandated fist pumps. Oddly, I don’t think it will matter. While Riske was battling, Garcia has been dominating. She’s just left Andreescu on 2, 3. The funny thing about the scoreline was that she looked composed while doing so. I can’t lie either, when the genuine joy spread on the face of Garcia after the match concluded, I could see how much she’s wanted this and it’s clear she’s been training hard.

Garcia has the bigger serve here, and way more power. She’s minimizing her errors, and you can be sure she knows she’s 0-3 against Riske. Riske will play her heart out, but I think she’s a bit outgunned here. Garcia in 2.

Kudermetova vs Jabeur :

Here’s another match with a surprising H2H. Kudermetova has never lost a set to Jabeur. Her footspeed seems to let her track down the dropshots, and with one of those wins coming this season in San Jose, there’s something to the idea that she’ll win here. Last round Jabeur had the much tougher match against Rogers, but her win was a tense battle while Kudermetova dominated her opponent. Oddsmakers have opened this at a pickem which is a huge risk against exposure on Kudermetova’s side since Jabeur is one of the biggest markets in women’s tennis right now. Who am I to disagree? Jabeur has had trouble in every round so far. Kudermetova in 2.

Samsonova vs Tomljanovic :

Solid win for Samsonova, who pretty much cruised past Krunic. She’s been on a tear since Cleveland and Washington, and this third title in a row would make it so she’ll never be an unknown commodity on tour again. She has the power and movement of a player like Rybakina or Sabalenka, but she’s a bit more steady from the baseline. Her serve isn’t great, but she gets inside the baseline most of the time off of the returns. Tomljanovic and her have split their previous meetings, and the good news for Ajla in facing this tough test is that she played her to three recently in Washington. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s an emotional letdown for Tomljanovic after the grueling and exciting Serena clash, but I see this match going in a very similar direction to the last one. Ajla’s power and steady play make her a tough out, but her own serving just isn’t good enough to keep Samsonova from finding her own offense. In the offseason Tomljanovic may want to work on her serve, because her progress and results are starting to look like that’s the main thing holding her back from these big wins. Samsonova in 3.

Side note : It was really fun watching Serena compete once more at a high level. She handled the loss with grace, she was extremely present in the moment and it was fun to see her problem-solving out there. Honestly that is the best tennis she has played and the best she’s moved since returning from pregnancy. That alone is a monumental accomplishment, and for her to make us all consider that she might go on a run is just a testament to how ridiculously dominant she was during her career . I still think that the layers of stress that roll off her as she eases away from the competitive strife of the tour will really let her grow and show us a softer side of Serena than some of her detractors have seen in the past, and I’m hoping she does some commentating in the future since her status will allow her to levy criticism and her experience will allow her to give us great insight.