2022 USO Men's Round Two Writeup

We’re changing gears here at blurry. This tournament is already a wild bunch of hot nonsense, but does it have senseless marketing in capital letters? Does it need it? Two no’s, but going forward I will be attempting to sell tennis to the general public by randomly including casually offensive taglines and promos.

Medvedev vs Rinderknech :

DO YOU LIKE TALL MEN BUT HATE HOW THEY HAVE ALWAYS POSSESS MASS AND VOLUME? Well this is the match for you. If you take 7, divide it by 2, take the square root, and then multiply it by Lacoste, you get Daniil Medvedev. If that’s not enough for you, perhaps I can interest you in a man who swings at the tennis ball the way a child touches a pot to see if it’s hot? Arthur Rinderknech is France’s answer to the brute force approach of such behemoths as Pierre Hughes-Herbert and Ugo Humbert, and this beautiful man reminds me of a deer that was cursed by a god.

Rinderknech and Halys had the standard marathon battle that occurs any time French compatriots play each other, but in the end Rinderknech’s serve was a huge weapon. His rallies at net can be a bit hesitant, but the extra pressure and the secondary way to score really put the match on his racquet. It’s the end of the road here now, as Rinderknech’s defensive abilities just don’t let him reflect power and pace of the caliber that Medvedev brings. Medvedev coasted against Kozlov and the courts here are benefitting flat hitters in a big way so far, so it’s not surprising that he improved as the match went on. Rinderknech can get close in 1 set because his serve and volley is efficient, but Medvedev has a better serve, is much physically stronger, and is one of the best returners on tour even from the absurdly deep position he takes. Kozlov and Rinderknech both guide the ball into play too much to control rallies against the best baseliners, and this should be another straight sets victory for Medvedev.

Wu vs Borges :

Rowdy. The Borges Shelton clash was as good as advertised with a number of extremely long rallies and an extremely close finish. The tale of the tape was Shelton with a bigger serve and a better proficiency on offense on hardcourt. He’s more likely to win tour level matches at this point, but the 3/5 format bit him. His legs fatigued a bit, and his first serve disappeared. The result was Borges was able to get returns in play and he made a concerted effort to keep the ball deep to Shelton’s backhand. I was very impressed with Shelton’s slice (he swings through it with full commitment to the spin), but Borges seemed to come up with all the biggest points. It was a physical maturity equation at the end, and Borges got the W.

Up next is a tricky spot where he may receive the same treatment he just won with. Yibing Wu looked like a machine against Basilashvili. We all know Basilashvili is a flight risk on the/in court, but he didn’t play half bad. Wu swung for the fences rather than push and wait for Basilashvili to beat himself, and Nikoloz basically was on defense for the entire match. It was that exact effort to beat the player rather than hope for the win that makes me thing Wu is going to stay on tour. He is extremely solid from the baseline, serves at least as well as Borges, and he has a bettter ability to move the ball. He’ll be fresh for this, and Borges may recover physically but emotionally he has to be a bit fried from winning that four hour war with Shelton after coming through qualifying. Since Borges is playing well and serving decent, I think this goes 4. Wu in 4.

Kyrgios vs Bonzi :

Kyrgios cruised in his win over Kokkinakis Monday night, and since there was nothing to get upset about he went ahead and got upset on behalf of Kokkinakis. Kyrgios complained about the crowd making noise and moving and was genuinely upset that his friend was distracted. If there’s one thing humans love, it’s having emotional states ascribed to them, so I’m sure Kokkinakis was thankful. Kyrgios can beat anyone if he wins the first set, and he’s played well so far. Bonzi cruised against Humbert, even though it took 5 sets. Humbert was extremely error prone and even during the sets he won he looked like he was just trying to find form more than trying to win a tennis match.

Bonzi can make this close because he hits solid enough during rallies to wear down Nick’s forehand, but Kyrgios’ serve means that he can’t really lose unless he’s playing a tremendous returner with the ability to move Nick on their own serve. I’d guess JJ Wolf will be Nick’s first big test, but Bonzi’s hard yards this season mean that if he does get a lead he should be able to negotiate a win in that set. Kyrgios in 4.

Tabilo vs Wolf :

DO YOU LIKE WOLVES? WHAT ABOUT TABILOS? Well you’re in luck. Majchrzak won the third set but couldn’t muster much after that against Tabilo. He didn’t look himself, but it’s still an uphill battle for him to hold serve, so Alejandro’s serve/forehand combo were enough to let him coast. He’ll need to be sharp in this next match, because Wolf has just made a bitof a statement against RBA in round one. I thought the u36 was a bit low considering Wolf had played three sets with RBA before, but now it makes sense. RBA just seemed, and has seemed, a bit flat this season. I keep waiting for him to become the automatic baseliner who hits everything super accurately and never misses, but he’s a tiny bit slower and it’s letting him get pushed around. Wolf should be able to break down Tabilo’s backhand here, and in the serving department they’re about even. Wolf’s second serve isn’t great but he has a simple motion and gets a lot of power on his first. I’ve doubted Tabilo’s stability before and been wrong, but this is a great spot for Wolf and I’d expect him to be very willing to do the work to win. Wolf in 4.

Carreño-Busta vs Bublik :

Expectations are high for PCB this event, and he delivered a fine performance in round one. Thiem played well, and almost threatened to take over this match but it’s a step above his current fitness level. He was redlining throughout and Pablo was able to keep errors down and wear Thiem’s legs down. Good signs for Thiem to be able to swing his forehand so hard this event; often with wrist injuries there are residual issues following surgery. For Pablo, this opens up the draw for a moment. Bublik beat Gaston in three single-break sets, but his level hasn’t been anywhere near good enough to beat PCB. The -333 price is a little low, but this is likely because of Bublik’s ability to serve his way to tiebreakers. Add in Pablo’s habit of playing to the level of his opponent, and this could get tricky. Bublik’s aggressive returning and instant offense will keep the points short and may throw off PCB’s rhythm a bit. If this devolves into Pablo isolating Bublik’s backhand and being insistent on earning errors, this could be a stressful one. I still like Pablo. PCB in 4.

Garin vs De Minaur :

Garin produced some good tennis in round one and it was good enough to beat Lehecka. Jiri has had some near-wins on tour but he needs to hit to more dangerous targets if he wants to get past the better baseliners. Garin ended up moving the ball fairly well, which is why the -760 pricetag next to De Minaur is a little surprising. Alex overcame and early break deficit to beat Krajinovic in straight sets, and he’s starting to look like himself again the past few weeks. It still doesn’t erase a season and a half of struggles, and just because you push the pace well doesn’t mean Garin will disappear. Garin’s speed and physical strength make him a good candidate to frustrate De Minaur, but I will admit that De Minaur has just beaten a player in straights who would be pretty much even with Garin at worst on hardcourt. Garin’s serving isn’t so bad, as we learned at Wimbledon, and he’s moving the ball well and won’t fatigue, so I would guess this match would be fairly close with De Minaur just a little bit better when it comes to the end. De Minaur in 4 close sets.

Khachanov vs Monteiro :

Watching Kudla beat Khachanov in the first set, I almost went to see what his odds were to win the whole thing. Khachanov has been a puzzle on tour. He came up with Medvedev and Zverev’s class and he has an extremely solid backhand. He has the ability to smoke the ball down the line but he rarely does. He has a huge serve yet seems to struggle to hold serve against average baseliners. He has a heavy forehand yet seems to lose range in matches he’s the better player in. He managed to turn things around against Kudla and close out in 4, but it’s still a match that you’d want him to win in straights considering his caliber. I’d normally love his chances against his next opponent, since Monteiro is mainly only dangerous when he’s the bigger hitter, but oof does Khachanov make his fans nervous.

Monteiro beating Molcan was impressive, because Molcan has been playing on the top tier of the tour for a while now while Monteiro has been stuck at the 250 level mostly. Given his close match with Cilic in Adelaide, and Khachanov’s close contest with Cilic in Qatar, I don’t see why we can’t get all syllogistic and expect Monteiro to make this a very high quality affair. This is one I’d never want to pay $ to back Khachanov in, but it’s a spot he should win in. He can hit a bit bigger off both wings than Monteiro and Thiago plays at the exact pace Khachanov prefers. That single speed approach feeds into Khachanov’s timing (which is why he plays Sinner well). On the flipside, I’d have Molcan going 4-5 with Khachanov and he was soundly beaten by Monteiro. Khachanov in 4-5.

Auger-Alliassime vs Draper :

The tennis community is so sick of underachieving phenoms . This is partially a result of the next Gen kids coming up short so often and partially a result of the behavior of some of them on and off the court. The end result is the bar is set so high that we’re careful not to annoint the “next best thing” unless they actually are already that good. A good example is Alcaraz. The kid is a once in a lifetime talent, and the ensuing attention is almost making us scared it’s going to sprain his elbow tendons or turn a wholesome competitive kid into a pompous ass who can’t beat Brooksby. This jaded attitude has sort of let Draper arrive on tour to less than stellar fanfare. What I’ve seen so far from him makes me think that he’s going to make it to the top 20 within the next two years, and there’s no flash in his game nor any lazy or priveleged behavior. Draper and Ruusuvuori was a match where I was scared to even back Draper at even odds, and he won in straights. Draper’s serve is a cannon and double faults are infrequent even though he goes to small targets quite often on his second. His forehand on the run somehow goes down the line lower and flatter than when he’s standing still. His backhand looks a bit shortened but it’s incredibly consistent and doesn’t break down even when he seems fatigued. Dare I say it? This dude is the real deal. I see many of you calling him “Snack Draper”. I’ll allow it.

This is a match I think Draper can win, but it reminds me a little of the Shelton Borges clash. Draper has the firepower to beat FAA, and Felix has a tendency to start slow at the majors. He was dominant in his last round against Ritschard (dropping a set to a server is never a disaster in a major) but Draper’s baseline game is much faster than Ritschard’s. I expect a few things to dictate this match, one being Felix’s ability to hit with depth on his backhand wing. If he leaves these short Draper should be able to beat him down the line. FAA’s serve is just as good as Draper’s when he’s firing, and his forehand is one of the best on tour. I’d expect this to involve a handful of momentum changes, and if Draper’s legs hold up I think he can win. Draper in 4 or FAA in 5.

Galan vs Thompson :

For a match that only took 2 hours and 48 minutes, the Galan Tsitsipas contest seemed like a marathon. After Galan left the plagiarism bandit on 0 in the first set, it seemed like Tsitsipas was off to a slow start. After he only won a single game in the second, it seemed like the match would be over. Tsitsipas changed things up in the third and it started to look like Galan would come up short. There is so much difficulty in closing out an upset in the majors because of the long format. Players peak to pull upsets and it’s hard to peak for a longer than usual duration. Galan’s level didn’t drop in the fourth though, and this was one of the few times that Tsitsipas’ upset loss came from the stellar play of his opponent rather than his own anxiousness/overthinking.

This is sort of what we want (Tsitsipas getting beat). It’s fun to see, but if Galan loses this next match then it has significantly weakened the draw. The high profile matches have extra juice, but the best thing is excellent skillful tennis. Galan has the potential to bring this. He has excellent form from the baseline, is extremely fast, and will play defense for days. The court conditions are helping his game a bit since he hits a fairly flat ball off both wings (Holt also benefitted from this). He can and should beat Thompson, but the potential for a letdown is there. Thompson dragged out Lorenzo Sonego to great success, but Galan is a good deal more patient than Sonego so this should be a close match. Thompson probably has a slightly better serve, but Galan has hinted at playing top level tennis a few times before (he had an epic match with Djokovic on clay despite the 0, 3, 2 scoreline) and he should know that Thompson is a player his first round level will defeat. He’s in better shape than Sonego and doesn’t have to keep points short. For Thompson, the plan is always the same. Serve well, and drag rallies out until his opponent’s first gear is gone. Expecting half a marathon here and many breaks of serve. Galan in 5.

Davidovich Fokina vs Fucsovics :

DO YOU LIKE BACKHANDS? DO YOU LIKE WHEN THEY SMASH YOUR SERVE BACK PAST YOU FOR WINNERS? NO? Then you might be Yoshihito Nishioka. ADF was absurdly aggressive in their first round and really never gave Nishioka a chance to get any momentum. He stood inside the baseline on almost every serve and Nishioka seemed to be just spinning his serves in after a while. Fokina’s forehand disappeared late in the match, but it was too late for a comeback and his backhand assault coupled with his deft use of the dropshot really kept Nishioka running the entire match. It sets up an interesting clash with Marton Fucsovics whose forfeit win against Cressy was welcome but not the most inspiring stuff. Oddsmakers have opened ADK at -185 here and that # went quickly to -225. I still think it’s too low. Fucsovics has barely won matches, and ADF just beat the Washington finalist in straight sets. My point is, very few people are heading to the books with their Fucsovics dollars in their hands clamoring to bet on the guy whose only recent win of quality is a forfeit from a servebot who I could have sworn said “i can’t play in this heat” during the handshake.

For Fucsovics fans, I’d point to his good performances in past hot conditions. He wore down Djokovic in a nice US Open match in 2018 (though he ended up getting tired himself) and he played him to 3 in Qatar. For me, absent these prices, I think ADF should roll here. He has a significantly better backhand, a stronger serve, and way more ways to score. ADF is a complete player and Fucsovics is a better Steve Johnson. The prices would make me skip this, but odd as they are I have a hard time seeing Fucsovics navigating this successfully. ADF in 4.

Murray vs Nava :

THE LAST TIME MURRAY WON IN STRAIGHT SETS AT A MAJOR WAS IN 1942. IT WAS THE WINTER OPEN, HELD IN THE SUMMER OF 23. PINEAPPLES WERE A DOLLAR, AND THE TROLLEYCAR WAS A GOOD PLACE TO GET BETROTHED! Murray balled out in round one. Cerundolo made late charges in pretty much every set, but Murray was steady and Francisco made impatient errors. This brings up a gift of a second round for Murray, against an American player who is talented but doesn’t have the huge offense that might be necessary to shut down Murray.

Nava pulled a nice upset win against Millman, and a match against a legendary fellow like Murray is a cool experience. He has the consistency and power to be competitive, but the moment may be a bit too much. I’d expect Murray to slow things down and isolate Nava’s backhand. Murray in 3-4.

Grenier vs Berrettini :

I like the chances of any lucky loser in a first round, but Grenier’s serve gives him an extra boost. Etcheverry managed to win the first, but Grenier is just more suited to the surface and has played probably 10 times as many hardcourt matches as Etcheverry at the tour and Challenger level. It was a good run and a nice paycheck for him, but it’s likely the end of the road. Jarry is a huge server, and Berretini broke him numerous times. He’s looking sharp, he’s having a great year, and he’s playing a guy who’s mainly a Challenger tour player. Grenier can win a set if Berretini throws in a poor service game or they arrive at a tiebreaker, but Berretini should win this in 3-4.

Holt vs Cachin :

DO YOU LIKE END OF SEASON CLIFFHANGERS? THEN YOU’RE GOING TO LOVE TAYLOR FRITZ SEASON ONE, COMING SOON ON NETFRITZ. After a great deal of unrealized hype, Taylor is having the type of season that the USTA really needed him to. The US Open seemed like a perfect place for him to go on a run, but Fritz ran into relative newcomer Brandon Holt. Watching Holt dig in and defeat Kuzmanov, I was impressed at his confidence. He looked like he knew if he kept the ball in play that he wouldn’t miss first, and he was right. Against Fritz, I expected him to snag a set but ultimately be outgunned. He displayed some of the best tennis of the first round though. Holt has a very similar style to Brooksby, and it’s clear that they’re comfortable on these type of courts. He guides the ball with a flat backhand and forehand most of the time, giving his opponent very little pace. When they finally create an angle or draw him wide, he swings a bit harder and really applies pressure. It’s the measured approach that lets them find a rhythm, and it makes it so much easier for them to infuse pace when they do have a shot. It’s so odd to watch but the low bouncing courts really let Holt beat Fritz from the baseline, and Fritz sort of froze in the moment. Partial blame here can go to Fritz’s box. He may not be the most high octane individual, but he needed some momentum/adrenaline and they were pretty silent. As out of place as it sounds at a tennis match, someone in the crowd screaming and hyping him up would have been incredibly useful. As it went, Fritz played decent but Holt played better.

Cachin had a marathon with Bedene, and while the caliber of the two matches were pretty far apart it was the way Cachin finished that makes me think he has a chance here. Bedene was the one dictating play most of the time, but towards the end of the match Cachin just would not miss a shot. He kept the ball low and was willing to defend and it netted him the 5th set tiebreaker. Against Holt, it probably isn’t enough but it’s an approach that has yielded some success so far in the qualifiers. Against Fritz, Holt was trading and earning errors, but against Cachin he’ll probably be supplying all the offense. I got the sense against Fritz that he is legit, and it makes me think that he’ll be able to win this match. It’s so rare that a young played remains composed in the pursuit of an upset, and with Tracey Austin as his mom there’s a good chance that he has been around professional tennis his entire life which should prevent nerves from creeping in. Holt in 4.

Moutet vs Van De Zandschulp :

“PERHAPS IF I DOUBT THE COMPUTER IT WILL GIVE UP? NO? NO? AND NOW? AND NOW? STILL NO? HMMPPHH” thought Moutet. Sadly, it did not work and Hawkeye won the debate. Luckily, Wawrinka is a bit past his prime, and Moutet was able to wear him down until he made errors. Stan withdrew after the third and it sets up a fun stylistic clash between Moutet and Botic Van De Zandschulp. BVDZ got past a tough challenge in Tomas Machac, and this is no reprieve. Moutet is extremely fast and his dropshot-heavy offense is likely to give the tall Dutchman trouble. Moutet played a highly competitive 5 set match here last year with Korda and that is what I would expect here as well. Botic’s serve is the better of the two, and his tennis is top tier, but he’s a step slower than his opponent and the extra balls Moutet puts in play are good enough to earn some errors. I like Botic here, but it should be competitive. Botic in 4-5.

Paul vs Korda :

Tommy Paul came very close to crashing out of this event. Zapata Miralles played inspired tennis, serving incredibly well and pushing the pace on every shot. It was really only Tommy Paul’s experience and defending that got him through this match. The question now is whether this near loss wakes him up, or if his struggles will extend into the second round. Korda had a similar scare and lost the first set, but he was able to pull through with some good serving. Heading into this event I’d have picked Tommy Paul to win here, but Korda has won all 3 of their previous meetings. For me, it comes down to who can shrug better. Tommy I often picture saying “chyeah” when he shrugs but Korda seems more like a “tubular” dude.

For tennis, Korda is playing a bit more steady, but he’s a lot slower laterally than Paul. I think Korda will wake Tommy up and these two will have a good shootout, but it’s hard to really point to one having an edge. Korda in 5.

Van Rijthoven vs Ruud :

Zhizhen Zhang has to be a bit frustrated today. He had a 2-0 lead and 6-7 match points in the third, and TVR came up with some big shots to break back. As the match went on, Van Rijthoven started to look like the fresher player, and his serve didn’t falter. It really feels like the win was stolen, but he worked himself back into form during the four hour clash and it sets up a nice battle with kind of king of clay Casper Ruud. Casper is through in pretty quick fashion, defeating Kyle Edmund who’s back on tour but not quite back to his peak. The odds for Ruud and TVR are a whopping -700 for Ruud, and that confuses me a bit. I spend a lot of time confused, it’s a hobby.

Ruud should beat TVR, but the form that Tim closed out his match against Zhang in can apply scoreboard pressure. His serving is the one thing that seems to still be near its peak, and since Ruud had trouble with Shelton a few weeks ago I could see this being close. The flipside to consider is that since TVR hasn’t played much tennis since Wimbledon, a 4 hour marathon comeback is going to leave him a bit flat. I’ll take a mixture of both. Ruud in 4.

Hurkacz vs Ivashka :

I like Ivashka’s chances to beat Hurkacz, but watching him struggle with Querrey wasn’t very inspiring. On the other side, Hurkacz pretty much cruised against Otte. I’ll take a fresh offense against Ivashaka’s defense. Ivashka is a pretty solid server and his height makes him a decent returner, but Hurkacz usually strings together a few wins in a row. Hurkacz in 4-5.

Brouwer vs Musetti :

Mannarino’s title run seems like it took everything out of him, and after going to duece in both of his opening service games I didn’t expect him to mount a huge comeback. He did break back in the third, but his legs were pretty tired here and it’s a great win for Brouwer. Gijs is a very tall lefty server which is pretty rare on tour, and he’ll have a puncher’s chance against Musetti. I left my stream on after the Burel Rybakina match and overheard the umpire talking to a tournament director (british dude). The TD was saying he should stick around and watch Musetti Goffin, and that it’d be a beautiful match and they’d play 5 sets. He absolutely nailed it. It’s another tough fifth set loss for Goffin, but wow did he bring the best out of Musetti. In the tiebreaker Musetti hit a number of near perfect dropshots, and he landed an inside out backhand winner from well behind the baseline that seemed almost automatic. His ability to defend the baseline is world class, but this next match is purely about returning for him.

Lorenzo has lost to most of the servebots and lefites he’s played recently on hardcourt, but it’s hard to really get a lot of information from this since his hardcourt game is only recently showing signs of life. Losing to Opelka and ARV also isn’t terribly surprising; they can beat anyone outside the top 40 on a given day. I don’t think Brouwer will be ready to go back to back, but I don’t have a good reason why. Mannarino did play fairly flat, but Musetti matches up extremely well against Goffin since he’s able to absorb pace and defend the baseline so well. Tricky spot. Musetti in 4.

Dimitrov vs Nakashima :

This should be excellent. Dimitrov was at his best against Johnson in round one, and though he got a little too frisky trying to close out and made errors, he was pretty safe throughout. It’s fun to see him serving well and covering the court, and he should have a pretty good offensive advantage against Nakashima. Brandon managed to close out Kotov in straight sets, and the qualifier looked pretty flat out there for most of this match. Nakashima Dimitrov is a bit of an unknown to me, but I don’t think I’ve seen Nakashima really overcome a significant offensive mismatch yet. His style is to be the more consistent player, and expose his opponents movement. Dimitrov definitely will give him some cheap errors, but I think he’ll edge this one out with a good serving performance. Dimitrov in 4.

Eubanks vs Sinner :

Great win for Eubanks. He served well and he came back from a break down in the first which is pretty rare for a server. His one-hander is still a thing of beauty, and it seems like this season he’s more consistent and comfortable on court. His opponent is probably going to beat him, but it’ll take the second gear. Let’s talk about that second gear. Recently I saw someone comment asking why Sinner’s hardcourt results don’t seem there yet. I think I figured it out. Every time he plays, he loses a set to someone he shouldn’t. Then the second set comes and it just seems inevitable that he breaks. Then he rolls them if it’s 2/3, and if it’s 3/5 he barely hangs on. I thought for a while it’s a fatigue or youth issue, but it’s pretty clear that Sinner is turning it up to an intensity that he can’t maintain for a full match. It makes sense, because the high octane nonstop ripping of the ball coupled with a consistency during this period that almost makes no sense is something that most humans can’t churn out. Sinner can, but it clearly takes a lot of effort. So my guess is that he’s trying to do something else, and when plan A fails, it’s “lockdown mode”. Stepping it up that way is a big infusion of adrenaline and effort and focus, so I’d guess that’s why he isn’t able to make the huge runs at hardcourt majors that people expect.

Eubanks can win a set here, but I don’t think he will. Sinner is pretty good on return, and Martinez wasn’t 100% physically so this is a huge step up. Sinner in 3 or 4 if he tries plan A.

Cilic vs Ramos-Vinolas :

What a difference a season makes. Cilic has somehow almost become a consistent performer in early rounds, and it’s refreshing to see him playing sharp. I do enjoy watching tennis pros lose and crumble and yell and mope, but really good tennis skill is what I really enjoy. Cilic will have an edge against ARV here, because he can actually score on the wall-human hybrid. Ramos was able to stop Gombos because Gombos takes a fairly direct approach from the baseline to earn his points, but Cilic’s serve gets him a bit further into the court and he hits a very flat backhand which will make it difficult for ARV to produce his forehand (it’s a pretty huge swing). Since ARV is a veteran, this could be close in the third as Cilic’s level drops off, but I think he closes it out in 3-4.

Duckworth vs Evans :

Two gifts in a row? I did not really understand why Evans was only -294 against Vesely. Vesely hadn’t played much, and was coming back from an injury. He struggled to hold serve, and it was smooth sailing for Evans. Evans is now around -385 against Duckworth, and it’s not that I don’t respect Duckworth’s game, I just don’t see who is lining up to take Duckworth at these prices. Duckworth 200% will put up a better fight than Vesely though, because he’s healthy and his best attribute is his physicality on court. The problem with seeing him winning is that he has a bit less variety than Dan, and a lot less experience at this level. Evans is in a great rhythm on tour and has mounted some huge comebacks in the past few months. Even if Duckworth is able to get him down, he won’t stay there. Famous last words to disagree with the books pricing, but I think Evans in 4.

Coric vs Brooksby :

CAN ANYONE HELP ME TAKE OFF MY SHIRT? Local shirt wearers Coric and Brooksby are a tale of two cities. Coric does not seem to know what size he wears, and Brooksby does not seem to know how to undo buttons. Both triumphed though, so what do I know. Coric really played well despite winding up in a 5th with Couacaud where he had to come back from a break down. He served fairly well, he didn’t make a ton of unforced errors, and he kept the ball out of Couacaud’s strike zone. So how does last week’s hero wind up in a 5th here? Enzo. This dude has been stuck on the Challenger tour for so long that he’s actually starting to dominate it. He’s like a more defensively capable Benjamin Bonzi, and a few more opportunities at the top level are going to see him …. probably head back to the Challenger tour. This one was tough to watch, because EC really played well but he just doesn’t have the big weapons that can put a match like this away. I like Coric’s play, but his next round is a very similar 4-5 hour contest if he wants to win it. Jenson Brooksby was made for these conditions. He keeps the ball low, he has a flat backhand, he’s not going for a lot until he has a big angle, and he drags matches out even when he himself is exhausted. A quick win against Lajovic, coupled with Coric’s run last week, and it’s not surprising that oddmakers are setting this at a pickem. I like Borna Coric’s energy and fitness, but I don’t see how he scores here. Almost dumping the last round to Couacaud is a sort of red flag for me, and people who think he’s going to beat Alcaraz in round 3 should be adjusting those predictions, but Couacaud is solid and Coric won’t lose a match to errors.

I don’t see how either of these two score in bunches or quickly, so it’ll be about who falls over first. Brooksby is fresher, and I think he will edge this one out with a bunch of over the top crowd support. Brooksby in 5.

Coria vs Alcaraz :

Griekspoor had a real bad day, and Coria’s joy to win a first round at the USO was really beautiful. It’ll be shortlived, as Carlos Alcaraz is a pretty tall ask for anyone on tour. IT’S TOO TALL OF AN ASK DAMNIT! Idk what’s going on. Anyway, Baez played Alcaraz tough, but he has a lot more variety and offense than Coria. Coria is actually the guy who first alerted me to Alcaraz’s prowess, as I wondered how a random 16 year old could be a pickem against Coria in Rio on clay. Tuning in I saw a kid who barely had a backhand and could somehow get to every ball, and whose forehand was carrying him almost past a top 100 professional clay-court specialist. Coria ended up outlasting Alcaraz that day, and Carlos will get his revenge here. Alcaraz in 3.

Norrie vs Sousa :

Congrats Sousa, you beat a pesky baseliner. Now you may play, a pesky baseliner. Norrie zipped Paire twice which is expected but still kinda funny. Funnier still, Paire served for the second set in between these two donuts. It’s good that he’s still willing to try with the lead. Sousa is a forehand and a work ethic, but Norrie has enough defense to negate the forehand and at least the same motor when it comes to grinding away for points. Unless he reverts to his old forehand and gets impatient, this should be Norrie in 3.

Isner vs Rune :

When you see Isner breaking multiple times, it’s bad news for the opponent. Delbonis looked gassed after a good run through qualifying (ended up as a lucky loser), and Isner was nearly automatic on serve. I think he’ll like his chances here as well, as Rune has just won in straight sets but in a very tricky match. It seemed like Gojowczyk had a number of break chances, and though he wasn’t going to win the match, it felt inevitable that Rune would have to play a fourth set. At the same time, Rune’s “no no no no no!” frustration seemed to be building, and he looked visibly relieved every time he was able to save one. Rune could beat Isner, but I don’t think he’s serving well enough at the moment. Gojo was able to hit a lot of aggressive returns, and Isner is going to expose the slight inconsistency in Rune’s serving/baselining. It’s a match Rune could easily win if he snags the first set, but it’s a spot where he’ll need to be extremely composed and patient and I’m not sure if he will be capable of that. Isner in 4.

Kwon vs Rublev :

Kwon gets a win! Verdasco played his butt off, but Kwon was just a bit faster today. He defended well and kept the pace up until Verdasco forced the issue, and his forehand was just a little off after playing 3 qualifying matches in the hot sun. Kwon’s joy will be shortlived, as he matches up somewhat poorly against Rublev. Rublev thrives on pace and can beat pretty much anyone who can’t ace him. That’s Kwon. Rublev did go five with Rublev but that was more about Djere playing great than anything else, and he looked to be the inevitable winner throughout the fifth. Rublev should be able to win this in 4.

Schwartzman vs Popyrin :

This is a tricky one. Diego was in the middle of getting smoked when a strange memo was passed down. Majors are played best 3 out of 5! Sock fainted from surprise upon learning this, and bowed out a set later. Tremendous player, but just rarely fit enough for tennis. Schwartzman wasn’t really playing great, and Popyrin has a similarly huge offense to Sock. If Popyrin can hit the court, he can win. Against Tseng, he gave up a ton of break opportunities though, so it’s difficult to say he’ll find a higher gear. The conditions are great for his serve and his flat groundstrokes, but he hasn’t shown the ability to play his best tennis for entire sets. Schwartzman tentatively in 4-5.

Kecmanovic vs Gasquet :

Learner Tien can ball. I tuned in late in the first set, expecting Kecmanovic to be playing poorly. Nope, Learner Tien can ball. He’s lefty, quick, and has a huge forehand that he measures well and varies pace with. He did hit a wall physically, and Miomir was able to run away with the match, but it was a good showing. Speaking of hitting a wall physically, my dude Richard Gasquet seems unable to. He shows up looking exhausted, then walks around looking weary like the fourth wise man or something, but he keeps swinging away and he just manages to create difficult situations for his opponents. One thing I love about his game is the lack of urgency. He’ll hit a shot that isn’t designed to score at all, just to keep his opponents honest. In the midst of all this, if he does see a chance to hit to the open court and get to net, he’s pretty much 100% on board with this. He’s changed his game as he aged in a way that Murray would do well to mirror, and he’s still a threat here.

Kecmanovic should win, but it’ll have to be a long and grinding win. Gasquet’s legs may go, but his shots don’t. Kecmanovic’s team should be telling him to isolate Richard’s forehand, since it’s the weaker wing and it’ll maximize errors on Gasquet’s backhand if he isn’t in a good hitting rhythm with it. For Gasquet, he just needs to keep the points short. That rush though may let Kecmanovic through. Tough one, but Kecmanovic in 4-5.

Fognini vs Nadal :

Never thought I’d see Fognini mount a 5 set comeback. In fact, after he came back from 2-5 down in the second to tie the score before losing 7-5, I thought he’d be closer to retiring than he was to fighting. Show’s what I know. I feel like when you trick or treat at Fognini’s house on Halloween he just opens the door and sprays you with some cologne, then stands there and eats grapes until you go away. Can he beat Nadal? Possibly. Rinky Hijikata balled out today, and a set against Nadal is a great reward for the young Australian. After the first, Nadal really stepped things up, but Hijikata didn’t give up which is a great sign for his future. Nadal should beat Fognini fairly easily here, but heroics against Nadal have always been Fognini’s favorite. Nadal’s level in round one would beat Fogs in 4. I expect him to get sharper as we go though. Nadal in 3.