2022 USO Men's Round One Writeup

Tennis! I headed over to the USO qualifying today, watched two points of Fruhvirtova Pacquet, and got drenched with rain. Tennis! Below is the men’s first round predictions. The ATP is starting to become so full of underachieving next genners that it actually possesses depth, and I have a feeling this is going to be a very memorable and high quality two weeks.

Medvedev vs Kozlov :

GAAAAAAAAAAME. MEDVIAAAAAAADEVVVVVVVV. This match will be exciting only if Mo Lahyani presides over it. Medvedev is back as the defending champion and he’s in decent form and health for another run. He doesn’t have a ton of wear and tear on him since the AO finals run and plenty of time has passed since his disillusionment at the crowd cheering against him so he should be fine here. Some doubts have been cast since he didn’t instantly win Cincinnati, but at this point in his career the hardcourt majors are really the main focus so Cincinnati becomes a warmup event if you’re on his team and thinking big picture. Kozlov has had some bright points on tour and does well at the Challenger level but he’s a bit too passive to hit through Medvedev. Kozlov does have a laser of a forehand when he lets it go, but he doesn’t let it go often enough to reliably try it here. Medvedev in 3.

Halys vs Rinderknech :

There are a handful of France vs France matches in this random draw, but that’s more a testament to the depth of French tennis than any sort of glitch in the drawing process. Halys is almost always in the mix at the majors, and is non-existent the rest of the year unless the ATP is in France. Their one previous meeting was a match where Rinderknech retired in 2019, so both will like their chances here. Rinderknech had a nice run in Vancouver recently, and Halys has lost 4 of his last 5. It’ll likely be close since Halys has a solid serve, but Rinderknech should have an easier time holding serve and in a first round his lanky body is unlikely to break down. Halys withdrew from his last match in the first set, so he may be less than 100% here. Rinderkech in 4.

Shelton vs Borges :

Nuno Borges qualifying is a big step for him. He’s definitely tour level on clay, but his hardcourt game has looked more impressive than the results that have come. Borges has a good serve and decent pop on his groundstrokes, and his movement looks funky but he covers the court very well. It all has a very Lego Sampras vibe to it and since he’s played a bunch of college tennis he’s used to a lot of different match environments. His opponent here is fast-forwarding to the place that Borges has just earned his way to. Ben Shelton is a very promising lefty with a huge serve and a great inside out forehand, but his success on tour has still been a bit of a surprise. Most players get wildcards from the USTA and lose close matches and gain experience, but Shelton so far has beaten Ruud, Sonego, Thompson, and a number of good Challenger level players. I think he may be slightly favored here, as Borges had a bunch of close matches throughout qualifying and his own offense isn’t quite as strong as Shelton’s. This will be a good test for Shelton since young players often struggle in the 3/5 format, but he should have a decent time holding serve and that gives him a shot since Borges does get broken quite a bit. Shelton in 4.

Basilashvili vs Wu :

Yibing Wu is the new Tallon Griekspoor. The dude does not miss and he has been absolutely crushing the Challenger tour. He was comprehensive in qualifying, and he probably will win here. Basilashvili is Benoit Paire’s spirit animal, and he is very error-prone and impatient. If the shots are landing, sure he can beat anyone. That’s a rarity though, and he hasn’t been active enough to predict a great showing here. Wu in a quick 3 or a difficult 4.

Kyrgios vs Kokkinakis :

Hehehe. Kygios in Medvedev’s section is a rough spot for him. Playing one of the only people on tour who respects him is rougher. Kyrgios and Kokkinakis’ run at the Australian Open doubles was pretty great, and their bromance press conferences almost made me think Kyrgios was turning over a new leaf. Every other match since then though he’s blamed the crowd, the umpire, his box, and anything else he can when he hits a rough patch of play. His fitness is greatly improved. His play from the baseline is getting way more stable. Emotionally though, he still can’t take an L. Anything that happens to him can’t be his fault, can’t involve him, yet he insists the show is about him. How many times can he say “they came here to see me, not you” to an umpire before he realizes it’s true. We want to see Kyrgios play tennis. We want to hear him joke around with the crowd. He has such positive attributes but he can’t see past himself. It’s a shame, but he is a small cat.

Kokkinakis has a shot to make this competitive since he has a cannon for a right arm, but he’s always been a bit behind the pace defensively. The comfort level he gets from playing a close friend may be overshadowed by the lack of really wanting to beat someone he looks up to, and Kyrgios’ overall level this year has been levels above what Kokkinakis has brought. Kyrgios in 3-4.

Bonzi vs Humbert :

Wow. Remember Ugo Humbert? A wildcard here is an indication of just how off Ugo’s game has been. There was a time a few seasons back that I thought his baseline game was starting to evolve and that he’s take the next step forward, but this 24 year old blast from the past has really struggled to win a match since then. He has that Shapo pendulum swing forehand technique that lets him hug the baseline and make quick adjustments to reflect pace, and his backhand was starting to really create sharp angles crosscourt right around the time he upset Medvedev on clay and Zverev on grass. Since then he’s just been dismal, but he spent the last month or so grinding away on the challenger tour, making the semis in Vancouver and Segovia. He’s in Granby currently (just beat Zhu 2,0) so it looks like he plans to get back on tour one way or another. Bonzi should still beat him though. Humbert’s losses to Grenier and Lestienne are actually a tier below what Bonzi generally brings, and Benjamin has been at his best this year. He’s just beaten an in-form lefty in Thiago Monteiro in Winston-Salem, and unless he makes a title run he should be fresh enough to beat Humbert. Bonzi in 4.

Tabilo vs Majchrzak :

This is a gift for both. Tabilo took a bunch of time off after Wimbledon and wasn’t great in Winston-Salem. He’ll open as the favorite here though since Majchrzak is coming off 5 losses in a row and had to withdraw against Gasquet this week. The guy is sharp, and he’s a great baseliner, but it’s always the same story for baseliners without a big serve. Earning your points on tour is risky, because everyone hits huge in the first round and the pace is such that stability alone doesn’t really play a huge factor. Tabilo’s backhand can break down at times, so Majchrzak will have a chance but with an unknown physical status it’s hard to really get behind him. Tabilo in 3-4.

Wolf vs Bautista-Agut :

This should be a great match, but it’s a rough draw for Wolf. After being rejected in the final round of auditions for Netflix’s Cobra Kai for being “too exactly perfect for the role”, Wolf turned his attention back to professional tennis. JJ Wolf seems like the quintessential USTA macho Ryan Harrison clone, but he actually wins matches and actually has a backhand. His serve is pretty solid and has some good kick on it, and he’s shown an ability to compete uphill on tour with wins against Dimitrov, Rune, Shap, etc. He’s on a three match skid but Rublev, Ruusuvuori, and Thiem aren’t bad losses at all. The trouble here is his opponent is generally a favorite to beat anyone he plays on hardcourt. Wolf will have an edge in power, but RBA’s defense is world-class and very often his opponents play him into form. He’s definitely lost a step in the past season or so, but RBA in the first round is still a pretty big ask. They met in Indian wells and RBA won in a 3rd set tiebreaker, but the pace of the court here should give RBA’s serve a little boost. I’d expect a very close match here, as RBA is still the better player but has almost seemed human this year. RBA in 5.

Carreño-Busta vs Thiem :

NO! Also, YES! This is not where we wanted Thiem to land in the draw, but omg is this going to be fun. What’s been clear from Thiem’s return is that the general public (myself included) does not know what to expect. He was completely written off after a few early losses where his forehand looked very awkward, but now he’s starting to hit the ball clean again to the point that some people have been throwing around “THIEM DARKHORSE” title hopes. His play this past week was varied, but the good stretches were great. He doesn’t look completely match-fit yet, so this is a match he probably can’t win. PCB did the right thing by withdrawing from Cincinnati after his unreal week in Montreal, and he’ll be playing his absolute best tennis in very hot conditions against a guy who isn’t 100%. Pablo’s consistency should get him through here, but Thiem can hit the ball past and through anyone when he’s firing so there likely will be some rough patches. PCB in 3-4.

Bublik vs Gaston :

Bublik hasn’t been playing, and Gaston isn’t good on hardcourts. Gaston’s dropshots are a great weapon, but Bublik is probably the better player in these net exchanges. Bublik’s serve is also a huge asset here since Gaston isn’t thumping many aces. Bublik would have to physically disappear for him to lose this, so I’d expect Bublik in 3 or Gaston in 5.

Garin vs Lehecka :

Why play hardcourt when you’re a grasscourt specialist? Garin went from retiring from the tour to winning 380k for the Wimbledon semifinals, but he still will have ranking issues next season since he’s down at 83 and struggling to find wins (2 clay losses in a row after Wimbledon). Garin arrives here with no warmup matches, and his opponent has just lost to Gojowczyk in straight sets so this is a tricky one. Lehecka should excel in the early going and he’s had some almost-wins on tour, but he doesn’t have a huge weapon to distance him from Garin. Unless he’s the completely-out-of-sorts-staring-forlornly-into-the-distance Garin, Garin in 4-5.

Krajiovic vs De Minaur :

Good matchup here. Krajinovic insists on winning and losing random matches, and no season in recent history has really shown consistency from him. There were rumors in the past that he parties a bit, and NYC is a good destination for that so a tough first round might not be the worst thing for him. De Minaur has made a career on tour of winning the matches he’s supposed to. He threatens to make the jump to the next tier, but physically he isn’t strong enough to do so. He does seem mostly recovered from his long-COVID issues, so he should win this. Krajinovic can reflect pace well and he’s solid from the baseline, but De Minaur is faster and has been and will be working harder. De Minaur in 4-5.

Khachanov vs Kudla :

These two played a pretty stressful match earlier this year in Australia, with Kudla up a set and a break before ultimately losing in 4. The matchup is close because Khachanov plays to the level of his opponent, and because he has no deception in his game. He hits hard, and he hits to the next target. It sounds great but it feels like everyone is just cruising to Khachanov’s shots at this point. To hit that next tier he needs to take some chances. Kudla should win the same rallies he did last time, and he can certainly win a set here but he’s working with less power and older legs and he’s coming off 4 losses in a row to subpar comp (Giron, Paire, Opelka, Monteiro). I still have hopes for Khachanov to make a big run at a major, but it’s tough to see it happening when he plays so conservative. Khachanov in 4.

Molcan vs Monteiro :

I don’t ever feel confident about lefty matchups, and I am somewhat biased because I am a Molcan fan. I really like how much bigger he goes when he’s drawn out of position, and cramping and fatigue issues make me think that he’s trying to elevate his level and hitting new walls as he grows on tour. Norrie has gone the “get everything back and keep it in a tough spot” route on defense, and it gives up a lot of control. Molcan seems to want to earn his way back into the rally with a single shot, but not a wild offensive attempt; he tends to go for depth and power to reset the rally. I like it, and I think he should win here. He’s a bit more versatile on his backhand than Monteiro, and they’re around even in the serving department. Since they’re both baseliners, I’d expect a large number of breaks in this match and perhaps a few tiebreakers.

It’s honestly very hot in NYC right now, so fatigue could become an issue for Molcan as he exerts himself against a solid opponent. Should be a fun match but Molcan has had the better results on tour this season and his pedigree is still on the rise. Molcan in 4-5.

Draper vs Ruusuvuori :

This one depends on Draper’s run in Winston-Salem. Most of the guys left are in need of titles so he’ll be seeing this one through, but it may be at the expense of a good run at the USO. Currently Draper has just beaten Thiem and he has a pretty good shot at winning. On the assumption that he loses his next match and recovers, or recovers in general, he should beat Ruus. Ruusuvuori is really good at beating baseliners because he’s very consistent and has a bit more power than most of them, but he lacks a big enough serve to really put matches away. He’ll wear down a guy like Hurkacz, but be stuck without a clear way to close out when he gets to the finish line.

Draper is the opposite. He has a ton of power in his forehand, and the ability of his to take the ball down the line while on the run is world class. You really don’t see that on tour too often. He has a huge serve, and being lefty is a huge advantage since most of the big points are played on the ad side where they can slide it out wide and get a forehand off the return. He’s a big guy and has a ton of power but his focus on his backhand when defending is pretty great. He extends rallies and he moves well, which is why he suffered so many injuries as he tried to transition to the tour with his big frame. Ruusuvuori can win sets here and even the match if Draper wins the title in WS, but it’s likely that Draper has too much firepower if he’s physically fresh. Draper in 4.

Auger-Aliassime vs Ritschard :

I really like Ritschard’s game, so this is a tough draw. He’s a tall right-hander with a really smooth service motion. His T serve bends nicely away from the ad side, and he plays within himself in the rallies, hitting solid offense but not really spraying errors. It’s the exact type of player that the bad FAA can lose a set or two to, so his level coming in will be the question. Time and time again Felix has looked tremendous and the following match he lost his timing. It might be growing pains, or him trying to iron out what his game really looks like, or professional tennis might just be really difficult. Either way, FAA should win this match in 3, and likely won’t. When he does wake up, he should be able to wear down Ritschard’s backhand. FAA in 4.

Tsitsipas vs Galan Riveros :

For a clay guy, Daniel Elahi Galan Riveros really play some great hardcourt tennis. He has a good ability to get low and redirect the ball down the line on his backhand, and he goes after his forehand to the open court whenever he can. He’s the type of player who sees you shading towards the next ball and just adds pace to the shot anyway and challenges you to make the play. This will work if Tsitsipas is a bit passive (he does have a tendency to fall into defensive slices on his backhand), but Tsitsipas is one of the best at defending to his forehand side. He’s been trying to cultivate a tough guy image on court by hitting balls at his opponents when they’re at net, and while that’s an eye-rollingly soft thing to do, it has had the side-effect of focusing Stefanos on winning tennis matches. He has a great serve and good enough defense here to coast through, and his top level should win in 3.

Sonego vs Thompson :

Lorenzo Sonego actually won a match this week, which feels like a rare occurrence this year. He has a huge serve and forehand combo, and no plan B. And by B I mean backhand. He regularly sails it long and that’ll be Thompson’s path to success. Thompson can serve well at times, but this match is on Sonego’s racquet. Given his modicum of success in the past few weeks of hardcourt tennis, I’d expect Sonego to come through here. Sonego in 4.

Nishioka vs Davidovich Fokina :

Nishioka salvaged his career in Washington with a completely random run that included beating Brooksby, ADM, Khachanov, Evans, and Rublev. The real coup de grace came a week later though when he was able to defeat Benoit Paire. He withdrew in Vancouver against Galarneau which is a cause for concern, but a lot of players were just picking up extra court time this past week so it might be nothing. This is a spot where Nishioka will be favored but I think the matchup is fine for ADF. Fokina has a great baseline game and every shot in the book. His backhand is very solid and Nishioka wins largely off extending rallies and earning impatient errors. Fokina is always down to grind it out and that’s his path to victory here. That being said, he’s 0-2 on hardcourt so far and the “ADF is going to win” belief is something that often doesn’t pan out. Injuries, close losses, and puzzling levels of play have plagued him. Someone in 5.

Fucsovics vs Cressy :

Marton Fucsovics has really been struggling to find wins. Cressy has been notching them all over the place. Even if he wins in WS, I still like him here. He went back to back after making the finals Melbourne and did fine in the AO. This would be a huge upset and would likely ruin a lot of people’s parlays, but honestly betting the first round is a minefield anyway. Cressy in 3.

Cerundolo vs Murray :

Francisco Cerundolo is a terrible first round for Murray, but most tour level players are. Murray is one of the best to ever do it, but he’s playing on expired parts. His lateral movement makes it so that there’s always a plan B of just making him run, and the conservative approach to tennis that was so difficult to hit past when he was able to cover the court easily hinders him a bit. In short, he can always produce entertaining tennis, but can’t usually win the match. Cerundolo’s hardcourt game has been a complete surprise, but he has the power to hit past Murray here and the endurance to wear him down. With Berretini’s form a bit of a question mark, this is a nice section of the draw for Cerundolo. Cerundolo in 4 while Murray squawks at his box.

Millman vs Nava :

Millman looked great against Gaston this past week, but was humbled by ARV in round two. I don’t really expect Nava to put up the same level of challenge from the baseline, but this should be close. Nava has hinted at getting to tour level in the past year or so, and he had a good run in Winston-Salem beating Donald Young and Taro Daniel. That’s right around Millman’s mid-level, but I still think Millman is playing well and should win here. Nava will have to avoid errors and keep the play to Millman’s backhand, and Millman simply has to serve well and get his forehand on the ball. He has enough experience and form to win this in straight sets, but he’s been a bit subpar this season. Millman in 3-4.

Etcheverry vs Andujar :

We all know that Pablo Andujar is the king of the jungle, but did you know he’s also king of the arctic? Recently, we interviewed over 400 penguins and not a single one would disclose any facts about Pablo Andujar. That type of loyalty is relatively unheard of, but it’s a testament to how tight of a ship Pablo Andujar runs. It is a little known fact, but Pablo’s ancestors were also the original inventors of tools and later would invent marketplaces for them to sold and traded. If you think I’m working my way towards an Andujarhardware joke, then yes I kinda was. Anyway, Pablo Andujar can turn himself into a jaguar, so imagine what he can do to Etcheverry. I have a hard time doubting Andujar, and both he and his opponent have been pretty inactive on hardcourt so he’ll start as a small favorite here. If Etcheverry is extremely active about hitting the ball big, he may be able to wear down the aging clay wizard. If he’s trading even though, Andujar has a really good ability to create offense with accurate and measured play. Andujar in 4.

Dellien vs Berrettini :

Hugo Dellien is the best first round Berretini could ask for. He doesn’t really have the power to hit past Matteo, and Berretini will need a match or two to get in a good rhythm on serve. He’s been decent in his return to tour, but a loss to PCB and Tiafoe seem to have eliminated him from contention in most of the discussions I’ve been reading. I think he’s fine, and with Djokovic not here and Nadal on the other side of the draw he could make a good run. Add in that he has clay-courters in the first two rounds and he’ll have time to work out the kinks and also will be somewhat fresh. Berretini in 3.

Fritz vs Holt :

Holt and Quinn really did well in qualifying. Holt got across the finish line with some solid wins against Muller and Kuzmanov, and I did think Kuzmanov was in good form so Holt may be ready to make a bit more noise next season. As it stands now, he’s playing a guy who waited for his Netflix documentary to start playing great tennis. Fritz was one of my favorite players to hate on for so long, but he has been steadily looking stronger, more comfortable, and more dangerous this season. His serve is such an easy motion and he’s likely to make a deep run here playing at home and with his ranking/season already good enough that he could sleep til January and still be a success. Holt will put up a good fight, but I can’t see him winning more than a set. Fritz in 3-4.

Bedene vs Cachin :

Great for Cachin to get high enough up the rankings to qualify for the main draw here. It’s a well deserved paycheck, as he’s had some great runs on clay at the challenger level. Bedene should be a bit too experienced on hardcourt for him, and his pace and defending are just a tiny notch about what Cachin is expected to bring. Since Pedro is a stock on the rise, the upset is somewhat possible here, but the most likely result is Bedene cleaning this up in 4.

Wawrinka vs Moutet :

This should be good stuff. Moutet is probably going to win this match, but his opponent is very good when he’s fresh and this is the first round of a tournament where he has routinely produced big upsets. He has a great serve and his backhand has been gradually easing into form. The main reason I don’t see Stan making runs anymore is that his movement seems to be slowing a bit. Moutet plays a dropshot heavy game and is lightning around the baseline. It’s going to be tough for Wawrinka to defend here and since Moutet has just won three matches he’ll likely be very sharp for this. When the buzz is that you’re vulnerable, players play harder so Stan will be going uphill here. Moutet in 4-5.

Van De Zandschulp vs Machac :

His last match went to 3 sets, but Tomas Machac was probably the most comfortable coming through the men’s qualifying. His serve is looking great as usual, and his play from the baseline is injected with easy power and pace. It feels like there were some unlucky draws here, and BVDZ is one of them. He’s just had a great week in Winston-Salem and losing today in the semifinals against Mannarino means he’ll be recovered for this match. Day two is tough after a tournament, but 3 and 4 players are generally starting to recover towards full health. Botic (or GOATic if you are classy) has a terrific serve and is capable of trading offense with the best players on tour, but his game is somewhat becoming a known commodity on tour which makes it tougher to win. Machac’s own serving is likely good enough to get him to tiebreakers, so this is likely a closer match than their current career snapshots would indicate. Botic should be able to solve this puzzle, but the upset is completely possible here as well as Machac is playing. BVDZ in 5.

Paul vs Zapata Miralles :

Tommy Paul has proven himself to be a real contender at the top level in minor events, and I think everyone in the USTA is hoping that he makes a bit run here. It’ll have to be a quick start for him, since Zapata Miralles is a solid opponent. Zapata plays a bit like PCB with less defensive prowess and more aggression on the forehand. I think he’ll ultimately be outgunned here, but Paul will have to be ready to ball from 0-0 if he wants to get through here in straight sets. Paul in 3-4.

Korda vs Bagnis :

Sebastian Korda reminds me of one of those ultra tall NBA centers who always seems like they should be scoring at will but spends most of their time on the bench with an unknown injury. He has all the tools to be a top players and moves very well for a tall guy, but when he loses it is over quickly and there isn’t a clear reason for the problems. This is a match he should win, but I can think clearly of a match he played against Moutet last year that went the distance because Korda couldn’t really put a good defensive lefty away. Bagnis is the same equation but with a better emotional tolerance. His serving isn’t the most varied, but he has some good pop on it and he was very good in qualifying. This is a should situation. Korda should win this in 4, but it is a classic letdown spot for him. Korda in 4 but I will be scared to watch.

Van Rijthoven vs Zhizhen Zhang :

I see no reason why the Zhizhen train will stop now. Tim Van Rijthoven had an unreal grass season, but hasn’t played since then. He pulled out of his only match since with Shelton, and it’s entirely likely that he’s not 100% physically for this match. His hardcourt prowess is a bit of an unknown as he’s mostly had success on clay in his early career, and Zhang has won a metric ton of matches in the past few weeks. If TVR is fit, this is even. If he’s playing for the points and payout, Zhang should win in 3.

Edmund vs Ruud :

Welcome back Kyle Edmund. Edmund has one of the biggest forehands on tour, and his work ethic is only hindered by his general slowness. It’s a ceiling to his ability on tour, but when he has control of rallies it doesn’t matter. He’s had a few decent wins at the challenger level, and may work his way back on tour as the indoor season rolls around since he has a decent serve and some of the tour takes time off to deal with their injuries/fatigue post-USO. In this match, he doesn’t have a great shot. Casper Ruud threw in a bizarre loss to phenom Ben Shelton two weeks ago, but his hardcourt game has improved a lot and he’ll make Edmund play more balls than he’s likely able to control. Since Edmund’s forehand is capable of really zipping the ball through the court, he could win a set. Ruud’s returning and timing on defense didn’t look great against Shelton, but in a 3/5 format there’s too much time for him to settle in and his own forehand is strong enough to wear down Edmund’s backhand. Ruud’s backhand has also improved a bit and is starting to go down the line a bit more adeptly. Ruud in 4.

Hurkacz vs Otte :

Name a more iconic duo than Hurkacz as a title contender and losing in the first round. This is a tricky one because Hurkacz is really a different guy week to week. What he does have going for him is a minimum level of Isner. When his timing is off, he casually sprays errors and puts every backhand into the middle of the net while posing. It’s a strange visual but tall guys are generally playing at near capacity speed in pro tennis so what we’re really seeing is him not having time to take a full rip at most shots. While he does this, his serve will carry him. Otte hasn’t played since Wimbledon, but he has a similar base level of serving that can carry him. He’s a serve and volley expert and his delivery is easy and efficient. The layoff can’ be a good sign, but they played to three sets in Indian Wells this year so I’d skip this one and expect Hurkacz to win. Hurkacz in 3.

Querrey vs Ivashka :

There is a prophecy that when the eagle and the condor fly together that the time will come for peace to reign on Earth. Unfortunately, thus far all we’ve gotten is Sam Querrey dancing in a horse mask. Querrey was one of my favorite players, because his serve and smashy ways from the baseline (he’ll go for a winner on every swing for an entire match) would sometimes connect. That isn’t happening much anymore, and his general approach seems to be hinting at retirement via rankings, and paychecks until then. Ivashka has a good enough serve to break even in that department since Querrey isn’t playing enough tennis to be sharp returning, and he’s ultra consistent from the baseline so Querrey will likely lose this one getting a bit impatient. Ivashka in 3.

Mannarino vs Brouwer :

Grumble. The qualifiers I was really hopeful about have landed in some tough spots. Three weeks ago this wasn’t a bad draw, but Mannarino is in the finals of WS and has just zipped Botic. Brouwer is a tall lefty with a tremendous serve, so he’s not exactly out of hope against Mannarino, but his best bet here is for Mannarino to be flat after the Winston Salem finals. The level Mannarino is playing right now is just a cut above what Brouwer can generally manage. The crafty Frenchman has one of the best serves out-wide from the ad side right now, and when he gets into a rhythm he doesn’t miss many shots. Mannarino in 4.

Goffin vs Musetti :

Goffin is supposed to win this match. He is better at creating offense on hardcourt, he plays from closer to the baseline, and he has more experience. This hardcourt season hasn’t been great for him though. 2-4 with most of those losses being straight sets and the wins being Tseng (not tour level yet) and Gaston (fun size). Musetti’s been losing also, but he’s 2-2 and the losses were against Coric and Gasquet who I’d rate to beat Goffin right now. The odds on this one will be interesting, as I’d expect Goffin to open as a slight favorite for no reason other than “he’s Goffin”. Musetti’s defending is really good, and I think the bad Goffin will have a hard time scoring. The problem for Musetti is generally that he’s content to hit the ball in and won’t really force the issue if he’s doing okay in the scoreline. This will give Goffin time to solve the puzzle, and I think he will. Goffin is a flight risk here, but Goffin in 4-5 is likely.

Dimitrov vs Johnson :

Odd withdrawal last week for Dimitrov. He won the first 6-0 against Thiem (he generally beats Thiem for some odd reason) and was down a break in the second when he just appeared to get nauseous and then withdrew. It could have been an illness or just heat exhaustion, but it makes his first round here hard to predict. Steve Johnson is always going to present the same decent serve challenge, and his slice backhand is always going to make it 50/50 that he loses anyway. Dimitrov has a great game and an equal serve to Stevie, but does he have a moustache? No. He doesn’t. You do the math. Dimitrov in 4 or Johnson via withdrawal.

Nakashima vs Kotov :

Oddsmakers and tennis fans alike are very high on Brandon Nakashima. When he plays well, he looks like a mini-Djokovic. When he loses though, it’s a bit puzzling and he tends to look a bit gunshy. A tough loss to struggling Karatsev last week makes this contest somewhat close, as Pavel Kotov is a very similar style of player. Big serve + big groundstrokes add up to a great deal of pressure, so Nakashima will need to serve well to win this match. If he starts slow or lets Kotov dictate, the upset could happen. As far as their levels right now, I almost think it will. Kotov in 5.

Martinez vs Eubanks :

I stopped by the USO today and heard a lil fellow tell a nice story about how Eubanks was walking through the grounds and had 50 fans following him. I like that, as he’s a good dude and has been trying for a while to become a regular name on tour. His serve is probably worth the price of admission, and his one-hander is pretty sharp when it lands in the court. Therein lies the obstacle. The pace of baseline rallies always seems to rush Chris a tiny bit, and it translates to errors. Up a break, the set is generally over. On serve? It’s very likely that Eubanks loses the games where he gets down in the scoreline. The good news is Martinez didn’t seem 100% physically in his last outting. He was rushing the net a lot against Tseng and didn’t seem committed to going the distance at all. Eubanks will have a good shot at the upset here, and this is probably the first time I’m picking him to win a match. Eubanks in 4.

Altmaier vs Sinner :

Altmaier has had some good challenger runs and he’s a workhorse with a beautiful one-handed backhand. He can’t beat Sinner though. Sinner’s pressure seems to build as the match goes on, and the defending that forces him into errors doesn’t seem to be something that opponents can keep up for two sets in a row. Sinner in 3-4.

Cilic vs Marterer :

Marterer might need a tiny infusion of new coaching, as he’s really getting close to breaking onto the tour. His issue is that he’s overhitting shots that aren’t going to win the point anyway. He has great power, but that means he doesn’t have to do as much with the ball to pressure his opponent. A few retrieves often cause him to force the issue (often on his backhand wing) and the errors keep weaker opponents in the match. Here he can go ahead and swing for the fences, as Cilic has played well this year and won’t get outhit. Marterer should probably win a set, but he has a tendency to lose close sets against the better tour guys and that’s what I expect here. Cilic in 3-4 close sets.

Ramos vs Gombos :

ARV isn’t really dominating things, and Gombos has just come through qualifying so he’ll be at his sharpest. This is a spot where Gombos’ power can hurry ARV, but if Ramos gets into a good rhythm from the baseline he’ll wear down his opponent. I think despite ARV’s discomfort on hardcourt, he’ll be able to defend most of the shots once Gombos’ peak level wears off. ARV in 5.

Duckworth vs O’Connell :

O’Connell is really tough to predict. He has a beautiful looking game, but lacks power. His one-hander is smooth, but he shortens the swing. Duckworth is a similar puzzle. He’s working hard, but it’s hard to tell when it will pay dividends. It’s a huge spot for both, and I’d expect the margins to be very thin. O’Connell actually opened at a pickem against Mannarino last week which was a bit puzzling, but a nod of respect like that is a strong indication that Duckworth will have his hands full here (Mannarino’s level has surprised a few opponents and oddsmakers already). I expect Duckworth to push O’Connell around, but for Chris’s level to be steady throughout and for that to pay dividends. O’Connell in 5.

Vesely vs Evans :

I like Vesely’s game in majors. He has a big serve, he’s lefty, and he has a general disregard for the quality of the name he’s playing. Here he has a really tough matchup though. Dan Evans pulled off a number of great wins in Montreal, and again pulling out of Cincinnati (like PCB) leaves him fresh for this. He’s sharp, he’s fast enough to run down most of what Vesely hits, and Vesely hasn’t been active enough to avoid errors. Evans’ slice will likely give Vesely a safe-haven, but him being a bit taller means bringing the ball up from there is a bit more difficult. I think Evans wins a decent quality shootout. Evans in 4.

Coric vs Couacaud :

What a change a week can bring. Coric went from mired off the tour, to people heading to the courts just to watch him practice. I overheard a number of people saying they wanted to see his serve practice this evening, and I’m somewhat interested also in his level here. He was unreal in Cincinnati, but I partially think the lack of wear and tear on him from not playing a full season let him beat his opponents with a live arm and fresh legs. He’ll definitely play well at the USO, but I think the pressure is now on him whereas last week every single opponent was sort of waiting for his level to regress. Enzo Couacaud is in great form, so this is a great opener to see where Coric’s level is. I think he’ll win at least two rounds here and then the Alcaraz test will be extremely exciting. Coric in 4.

Brooksby vs Lajovic :

Brooksby plays his best tennis on American hardcourts, so it’s a bit puzzling that he’s had such a rough go of it lately. 4 losses in his last 5, and a listless erosion on the forehand wing against RBA leave some question marks here. Luckily, his opponent has been losing at a similar clip, and his general hardcourt ceiling is a lot lower. Lajovic ran into a red-hot Fognini last week, but he had a winnable match against Musetti the week before and went full-pushmode. Brooksby is the best pusher we have to offer here in the US (sorry Mmoh), and he should grind his way through this. The weather is hot this week, so expect Brooksby to have every button on his shirt buttoned for some odd reason, and for his jersey to not fit his shoulders properly even though he has a team of coaches who should realize that comfortable clothing is still achievable while wearing a sponsor’s gear. Brooksby in 4.

Griekspoor vs Coria :

Griekspoor looked pretty bad in qualifiers at Winston Salem, but got a win in round one against Taro Daniel and did okay against Goatic Van De Zandschulp. He’ll like this first round since Coria is mostly only a threat on clay. Coria won’t just disappear, but Griekspoor is extremely solid on his backhand wing and he can likely wear down Coria’s defenses. He’ll also have an edge on serve, so it’s really just a matter of staying patient. Griekspoor in 3.

Baez vs Alcaraz :

This isn’t great. The draw thus far hasn’t had too much venom in it, but I would like to see Baez land elsewhere even with his recent slump. That slump is the main reason Alcaraz will likely win this in straight sets, but Baez is more than capable of digging in and extending rallies. Alcaraz is still willing to go for the right shot in any situation, which is great against the top level but also causes him to spray errors his opponents won’t give back. It’s a good warmup for Alcaraz, who I think is my pick to win this tournament. His serve is good enough, his defense is top tier, and his forehand is a legit weapon against anyone. The main reason I think he’ll go on a run here is that it’s very hot in NY and the 3/5 format makes it tough for someone to hit through Alcaraz. Anyone can win a set but his second gear of defending may see players worn down until Alcaraz’s forehand is the only weapon left on the court that’s scoring. We shall see. Alcaraz in 3-4.

Norrie vs Paire :

Picture an enthusiastic cricket. Now a judgemental praying mantis. Now become a wizard. Turn both into people. Make em play tennis. Who wins? This is the quandary. Let’s look at the evidence. Benoit Paire is having a mid-midlife crisis crisis. He doesn’t seem able to conjure his best effort on the court, and in his post-match interviews he doesn’t seem to be able to pretend that he’s in a good mood. To be fair, most people are full-blown quit the sport mode for a brief period after a loss, so it’s surprising that more players aren’t openly miserable after an L. Luckily for Paire, this is a match where he has no pressure. Cam Norrie has done nothing but win matches this year, and is constantly working on improving his tennis. He’s the opponent who Paire rarely beats, and he’s in good form. This should be fairly one-sided, and Paire’s forehand is likely to break down in long rallies. Paire still has a great serve and one of the better offensive backhands on tour, but he’s just not capable of the amount of tennis it’ll take to beat Norrie here. Norrie in 3-4.

Sousa vs McDonald :

This is a good matchup. Both guys are lighting fast and both only really score with their forehands. Neither has a huge serve and neither has been winning much so far in this North American swing. Sousa’s peak level is better, but we’ve only seen that in one random event in Pune, India this year, whereas McDonald has been mediocre but steady. I think McDonald’s speed will let him win and the hometown crowd should give him a decent boost. Sousa is a veteran so he likely will elevate his level and leave it all out there, but I think he will have to hope for a late surge in this one. This could really go either way, but on paper it looks like McDonald in 4-5.

Isner vs Delbonis :

I see no reason that Delbonis can’t win this, as everyone with a decent offense has a fighting chance against Isner. The annoying thing is that John Isner’s serve will likely keep Delbonis from breaking at all, since he’s a pretty big dude and isn’t exactly winning sprints out there. Isner in 4.

Gojowczyk vs Rune :

AAAAAAAAAAAAA. Holger Vitus Rune was priced fairly low against Cam Norrie last week, and he delivered a solid performance to back up the bookmakers hedge. He wasn’t able to cross the finish line, but it was a good match and he didn’t lose his temper. Baby steps, but Rune’s tennis talent and ability to redirect the ball is something that make him look like a future top 20 talent. Physical maturity and emotional maturity are the barriers. He’s doing more with less in a match against Norrie. Against Gojowczyk, he actually might be the more physically durable player. Gojo has a big serve and won a few matches against Johnson and Lehecka in the past month, so this could be closer than expected. In his last match Gojowczyk only served at 57% on his first serves though, and giving Rune a lot of chances to put returns in play will spell a loss for Gojo since he’s just not sharp at the current moment. This is one that could ruin a lot of parlays, but Rune should get this done in 3-4.

Shapovalov vs Huesler :

Huesler is still in Winston-Salem and has a decent chance against Jack Draper. He’s used to the challenger grind so he should be able to turn around for the USO first round, and this is a spot similar to the match above. Shapovalov should win. More experience, a higher top tier, and more stable play overall. He’s been wildly inconsistent this season though, took a long break mid-season, and the losses he’s taken have been pretty much due to errors and poor strategy on-court. Huesler has a ton of power, but the big lefty forehand but has been mired off tour because he’s very aggressive with his shot selection and doesn’t slow down when he’s off. A sharp week could see him springboard to the next tier, but that’s a big if and Shapovalov will be the better rested player. Shapovalov in 4-5.

Munar vs Carballes Baena :

Jaume Munar has been outperforming his game on hardcourt so far this season and it’s really enjoyable to see his game mature. Some burnout has hindered him as he plays a very drawn out style clay-court style, but serve and volley has been the hallmark of his hardcourt resurgence so his game may continue to evolve. Here he has a pretty winnable match, but RCB is never an easy out. Carballes Baena has won all three of their previous meetings, and while they were on clay, it points to an ability for Roberto to compete even against a guy who’d be expected to beat him. Munar has played the full North American swing, so I’d give him a slight edge here but I’d expect it to be very thin given their H2H and RCBs defense. Munar in 5.

Kwon vs Verdasco :

Idk about this one. Verdasco lost to Kotov in the final round of qualifying and a few people have noticed that he is actually starting to look old. It’s really cool that he’s still playing and is willing to go through qualifying, and this might be a winnable match. Kwon has the tools to defend against Verdasco, but he’s struggled to win matches all season. He just doesn’t have a big enough serve and it looks at times like he doesn’t want to spend all his time counterpunching. Verdasco will give him a bit more time than most tour players, so he should outlast him here. He’s just too unreliable to use capital letters though. kwon in 5.

Djere vs Rublev :

A week or two ago this would have been one-way traffic. Laslo Djere has just beaten Richard Gasquet though and is playing great ball in Winston-Salem, and Rublev has taken a handful of puzzling losses this season. Djere should make this a tough match, but everyone favorite angry broccoli Rublev will probably be able to edge this one out. Djere’s hitting from the baseline is solid and his endurance really is how he wins matches. If Djere can wear an opponent down or if he’s the bigger hitter, he’ll win. He probably can force Rublev into errors, but Andrey has a pretty solid ability to outhit his opponents. The level of Djere is good, but Rublev is a tier above and he was decent against Fognini and Fritz the past two weeks. Rublev in 4.

Schwartzman vs Sock :

Diego is straightup not having a good time. After a few lights-out years, it seems he’s a little bit burnt out or perhaps just aging. It’s possible that the tour’s depth is just making life tougher on him, but Schwartzman is really struggling and he isn’t as consistent from the baseline as he was in 2019/2020. Somehow, in the midst of a visible slump, he’s winning matches. He beat Karatsev in 3, Molcan in 3, ADF in 3, and he might be able to get past Sock here. In Sock’s favor is his forehand and serve. Jack can smoke the ball past just about anyone when he gets inside the baseline, and with Diego’s serving struggles, he should be able to employ the type of aggressive returning that has seen him win a number of doubles titles. The $ will likely flow in on Jack here, but he really hasn’t produced so far on hardcourt (admittedly he has had tough matches in Ivashka/Cressy/Paul. A win against Goffin is his lone North American triumph, and Goffin has been gifting wins this season so this is a good opportunity seemingly for both Schwartzman and Sock. I don’t really know what to expect here, because Sock has underperformed and struggled with fitness, and Diego has underperformed yet still is 16th in the world. Schwartzman in 5.

Popyrin vs Tseng :

Popyrin hasn’t really lived up to the promise that his talent made us all think about, but he’s still a solid server. His problem is his power lets him go bigger than he needs to, and bunches of balls in the bottom of the net inspire his opponents to stop making errors and just look to play solid tennis. It’s hard to create when your opponent is in a solid form, so Popyrin has lost a number of simple matches on tour in the past few years. Tseng is definitely a candidate to roll him, as he’s been grinding his way up the Challenger tour with great success. He was initially just winning on clay, but he’s beaten Martinez and Fucsovics in the past two weeks and played a solid match against Norrie. It’s tricky saying that he’ll win since he’s certainly outgunned, but Tseng is doing the work while Popyrin is aiming high and ignoring the interim results. Tseng in 4-5.

Kubler vs Ymer :

There are a few matches that are great tv but hard calls. This is one of them. Jason Kubler has been the latest bloomer I’ve ever seen on tour. His hype was “the Nadal of Australia” when he was younger, and he never really won matches on tour. Fast forward to this season and he’s fitter than ever, serving great, and winning behind a heavy forehand. His grass run was great, and he’s won a few matches on hardcourt also. He should have all the tools to run Ymer around, but the question is how long he can bring his A game. Mikael hits the ball very fast in the first round and his defending has upended players with much larger offenses than Kubler. I’d expect a late run from Ymer, but Kubler has a good chance of getting this win. Kubler in 4.

Giron vs Tiafoe :

Somewhere some Tennis Channel announcer will make this out to be extremely unfortunate, but neither of these guys has really shown the kind of form that would make them influential in this event. Tennis Channel hate aside though, this one of the best matches of the first round. Tiafoe has been losing some of the same odd matches, but his serving has gotten more consistent, and his baseline play has as well. When he’s focused, his backhand is also pretty scary. Giron has had middling results on tour, but his forehand is extremely smooth and his play in North America shows that when he’s feeling comfortable his game is a lot better than usual. The rallies here will be interesting, since Giron smooths his forehand inside out and Tiafoe tends to go crosscourt with his best power. Both have a decent slice and a solid backhand, but Tiafoe’s serve is much more powerful. Their previous hardcourt meeting was a third set win for Giron, and I’d expect this one to go the distance as well. Giron won’t be able to hit Tiafoe off the court, but he can extend rallies and will frustrate Tiafoe with his speed. He also defends extremely well to the forehand wing so Tiafoe will have a tough time scoring. I’d say Tiafoe is the more dangerous player here in a fifth set simply because his forehand doesn’t dip late in matches. Tiafoe in 5.

Kecmanovic vs Tien :

New name for me here. Tien seems to be an American junior who’s just about to break into the top 1000. This is a great opportunity for him, but Kecmanovic won’t take it easy here. Kecmanovic in 3.

Daniel vs Gasquet :

Gasquet lost today in Winston-Salem, and while losing a third set tiebreak after having match points hurts, it’s the perfect time for him to exit. He’ll have 3-4 days to recover and he’s in pretty good form. That’s key against Daniel, because Taro is a difficult out. Daniel plays a very precise and calculating game, and really doesn’t miss too much from the baseline. If Gasquet were tired, Daniel would be able to move him and wear him down. It may feel safer playing against a guy who isn’t trying to end rallies quickly, but it also means that you’re playing a lot more tennis. Anyway, Gasquet should be up to the task here. His backhand is capable of creating angles that move his opponents off court, and he has a tremendous knack for getting to net and forcing his opponents into errors. His own service games make it seem like he’s in a frantic hurry, and the scoreboard pressure will likely net him a few breaks. Gasquet in 3-4.

Fognini vs Karatsev :

This should be a good time. Fognini has been decent in the past month, and it’s always enjoyable to watch a guy try to not try. Karatsev has been in a terrible slump that made his match-fixing allegations not even surprising (they were before he was on tour, to be fair), but he did beat Nakashima and his serve and power are still there. If he finds his range, this will be an excellent match. It’s a great spot for Fognini though since he’s serving well and hitting his forehand really crisp. Karatsev has kind of had the benefit of baseliners leaving him in sets late in all his recent wins, and I think Fabio will be a bit more proactive about capitalizing on Karatsev’s errors. Fognini in 4.

Nadal vs Hijikata :

Another tournament has come and Nadal has managed to make us forget that he is Nadal. He’s won every single tournament he was expected to, and half that he wasn’t, yet a loss to Coric has people writing him off. Physically, there are question marks because of his foot issue, but that foot issue hasn’t really resulted in a single loss this season so why are we expecting one now? He’s in a great section of the draw, and he shanked a forehand with set point against Coric that likely would have seen him win that match. With an extra two weeks to prepare, and a few simple first round matches here, I think we will see Nadal’s odds to win see a lot of investment. Time and time again people think he’ll lose, but when the second week rolls around it’s really hard to see someone beating him for three full sets of tennis. Hijikata deserves this wildcard, and he has a bright future in tennis, but he likely start well and fare worse in each consecutive set. Nadal in 3.