2022 US Open Quarterfinals Tuesday Matches

Kyrgios vs Khachanov :

The 4th round was a humbling experience for many. For Medvedev backers, they are likely wondering what changed between the Wu match and the Kyrgios one. Medvedev played a solid first set against Nick, but for long stretches of this match he looked flat offensively. After a tough loss to an underdog you always sort of expect to get through in the next rematch, and I think in parts of this match we were watching Medvedev realize he was going to lose. Medvedev does everything right on the court, but against the top tier it has seemed at times like he can’t generate pace on his forehand when the ball is kept low. Kyrgios was basically breakeven in baseline rallies and when he did have forehands to work with inside the court, he was able to force Medvedev into errors. Kyrgios’ forehand is definitely improved, and he acknowledge this in the post-match interview. The interviewer asked why he didn’t travel with a coach, and he acknowledge that his game weaknesses are a known thing, and that if he doesn’t want to put in the work to improve them it doesn’t matter who’s coaching him. Fair, and the usual NK filter makes it sound like a “YOU CAN’T MAKE ME” but he acknowledged that he has been working on them, and honestly it was the most human Kyrgios has seemed in an interview. I find that that interviews after a meaningful win is when people really break out of their usual answers, and it’ll be interesting to see how NK fares in this one where he’s playing a tremendous opponent but is supposed to dominate.

Khachanov played spoiler to all the fans who watched Montreal closely, continuing his dominance of Pablo Carreño-Busta. It isn’t hard to understand how Khachanov could make the quarterfinals of a major, it’s hard to understand how he hasn’t already. Khachanov’s mediocre results on tour and surprise losses to weaker baseliners make results like this seem like outliers. If you go through the attributes of these players, Khachanov has a larger offense on just about every swing, yet Pablo seems like the guy who’s done more with less enough times that Khachanov shouldn’t win. He has though, and it sets up a clash that probably will be closer than Nick’s box will enjoy. Kyrgios and Khachanov have played two 6-2 sets in their career, and the rest have been tiebreakers. This is a more focused and fit Kyrgios, so he’ll likely be returning better than those matches in the past, and that’s where the edge lies. Kyrgios can still wind up in those tiebreakers, but he’s putting enough pressure on his opponents serves by hanging in on the baseline that the guys with readable patterns eventually cough one up. I think Khachanov having more weight on his shots will potentially wear down Nick’s forehand, but Kyrgios is having a career year, and he’s just beaten the #1 seed (for the second time this year which hasn’t been done since Australian Pat Cash in the 70s). This is really the first time that the draw in an ATP major has completely opened up, and Kyrgios is conveniently one of the sharpest players and the guy with the biggest serve. What an opportunity this is for him to get some of the weight off his chest, and what a good lesson it would be for him if hard work paid off for him after so many years of being labelled a disappointment. I doubt Khachanov gets blanked, but Kyrgios should be healthy for this one and it’s going to take a lot of pressure and fatigue to keep his serve from carrying him through matches. Kyrgios in 4.

Berrettini vs Ruud :

Heartbreak again for Davidovich Fokina. ADF and Berrettini played such good tennis. For 3 hours and 20 minutes they basically were dead even. Fokina was finding Berrettini’s backhand and rushing the net to great effect, and Berrettini’s serve +1 was firing well. Early in the 5th though, Fokina what looked like his right knee. He could no longer put weight on it, and the result became a foregone conclusion. It’s hard to see someone put so much effort into an event and then have it snatched from them via injury, but he’s a pretty great athlete/competitor so I would expect him to breeze through any rehab and be back on tour in no time. Berretini’s reward is another guy who’s supposed to be a claycourter but will wind up in a 5th set with him. Casper Ruud has really elevated his level of hardcourt tennis this year, and I think he’s slightly better than Berrettini from the baseline at this point. Matteo’s forehand is bigger when he lets it go, but Ruud is swinging harder on the average shots and his backhand has become very consistent.

In the last round Ruud had a tricky test, but was rolling. Moutet had scored just 3 games in the first two sets, and was down a break in the third. He had already hit several balls into the upper deck of the stadium, he was yelling at his box nonstop, and he had argued with the ref pretty much nonstop. Ruud asked the umpire about the balls he’d hit out of the stadium, and Moutet kept insisting “IF HE WANTS THE GAME PENALTY GIVE IT TO HIM I DON’T CARE”. It’s such a soft move to try to paint Ruud as the bad guy here when you’re visibly moping every point. Moutet basically looked like he wanted to find his way to a default so he could avoid the loss, and when Ruud finally had a heart and got distracted by the bs, Moutet became reengaged and stole the set in a tiebreaker. Thankfully, this match won’t have that kind of crying, but Ruud’s slight letdown exposed a few things that I don’t love. One, he’s looking to cover his backhand generally when his opponent has a ball to work with. I don’t think this is necessary anymore since his backhand has improved so much. Moutet caught him with the inside out forehand almost every time he hit it for the last half of this match. Two, when he’s in trouble of gets broken, his game reverts to the clay-court guy who struggled on hardcourt. He starts trying to infuse height with his backhand and gives his opponents time, and he takes a super deep return position which means any spot server (hola Berrettini) can punish him with serve and volley fairly easily. The high backhand isn’t even a bad shot, but since these courts are relatively fast and the ball is sliding a lot this week, players taking the ball on the rise have been able to find clean winners more often than at other venues.

This is a spot where Berrettini is supposed to be winning, but I’m not sold that he’s 100% back to his previous grand slam level. ADF was able to find his backhand, and Ruud is so disciplined that I expect he’ll be able to do the same. Ruud went about 2.5 sets against Moutet without really missing, and I think that overall here Berrettini is the one who needs to redline more often to get through. Ruud looked several times already this event like he was the next Nadal rather than Alcaraz if only in terms of consistency and grinding his opponents down. I think he gets through here in a similar match to the Tommy Paul one. Ruud in 4-5.

Jabeur vs Tomljanovic :

Ons Jabeur had never won a set against Kudermetova, and didn’t look on her way to changing that down 5-2 in the first. Something clicked though, and for pretty much the remainder of the match Jabeur was the one winning the long rallies. Her forehand is always a cannon, but her backhand started to really find some sharp angles crosscourt. The dropshot is good to have in your pocket, but I found it interesting that during her comeback and the second set she mostly went with power. Watching her trade with Kudermetova, I saw a level that Ons hasn’t really shown so far this event, and that’s a scary thought for her opponents. The book on Jabeur is that you can outwork her. She’ll eventually go for bailout dropshots, so there’s always a decent chance you get to a third due to a letdown in her level and/or errors. She didn’t show that though against Kudermetova, and her serve was really hitting its spots. I waited many times to hear the out call on serves, and it just never came. The Wimbledon loss will be fresh in her mind, and that can always add some motivation the next time you get close to a title. Up next she has a newcomer to the quarters, and one who hits the ball almost as hard as her.

Tomljanovic continues to grind past her opponents, and she got the benefit of Samsonova hitting a wall the other night. Up 5-2, Samsonova was cruising when her forehand just lost range. She started hitting an unforced error every other point, and Tomljanovic cruised from there. After two titles in a row, it’s not surprising that Samsonova would run out of gas, but the question is whether it was going to happen anyway, or if the heavy hitting of Ajla is what did it. I think a bit of both, which is why I expect Jabeur to win. Tomljanovic hits big, but it’s a very similar matchup to Kudermetova. Jabeur was able to get a big edge there due to good serving, and her team seems to really be keeping her focused out there. Even if Tomljanovic gets a set here, there still is the sense that Jabeur will have the simpler time in a 3rd. The run has been incredible, but I think it is over. Jabeur in 2.

Gauff vs Garcia :

Gauff was really solid against Zhang. Shaui has been playing her best tennis ever in the past few weeks, and she continued to do so against Cori. Their rallies were basically crosscourt sprints for the first 5-6 games, and Zhang seemed to be able to just hit the last ball to the open court and get an error. As things dragged on though, Gauff’s speed and power started to make inroads, and that’s really been the best thing about her promise on tour. Her serve can be great, and her creativity in doubles is excellent, but her plan B of retrieving and going into lockdown mode has shown the ability to upend top level offenses. It’s a good time to go to that strategy again, but whether anyone can actually stop Caroline Garcia right now is the big question. Garcia had never beaten Riske-Armitraj,and at 4-4 in the first the announcers were talking about how Alison was the one who’d been troubled less on her serve. She won one more game from there. Garcia is hitting the ball huge that she’s following shots to net that aren’t even hit away from her opponent with success. She’s standing well inside the baseline to return first serves, and I think in the WTA in huge moments in tournaments it’s a great strategy. Collins has done well with it. Williams has done well with it. Kenin has done well with it.

If Gauff wants to win this, it’ll take a good serving day. Garcia will punish second serves and her power is beyond what Zhang offered so seeing Gauff getting a bit outhit at times is a concern. On the flipside, Gauff’s defense is something that will really test Caroline’s offense. Kalinskaya is a good defender but doesn’t have a serve. Rakhimova is the same. Riske has a great offense but isn’t the most durable athlete. Andreescu was a contender but she isn’t really playing the type of defense that she was when she won majors. For predictions, you’re basically just asking whether Garcia can hit through Gauff. It won’t be a hit past situation since Gauff covers so well, so Garcia will need to be rushing her into errors. I’d expect three sets in this one, and Garcia to be a little bit stronger on serve when the pressure is on. Garcia in 3.