2022 Roland Garros Women's Round One Writeup

WTA Draw time. A few seasons ago people were lamenting the lack of depth on the women’s tour. Well, that problem is solved and the result of the constant duels to be the “new” Serena on tour are that a number of great players have announced themselves, and Barty’s exit has set the stage for Iga Swiatek to go on an amazing tear. She’s a -150 favorite to win the tournament (this is literally Nadal/Djokovic level odds) and it almost seems fair. I’m FRIGGIN HYPPPPPPPPED. 🐢

PS Don’t forget to join the bracket comps so I can lose to you all again : ) Tournament starts at 4am EST tonight.

Swiatek vs Tsurenko :

Earlier in the year Swiatek was offered around even odds to finish the year at #1. That week she won the title. The next week she won a title. Iga sits on 5 titles in a row and 29 match wins, most of which contain a blowout set. The margin she’s pulling away by in second sets is really a sign of dominance in pro tennis. It’s hard to win the runback after winning an emotional or close first set, but Swiatek’s level seems to be exhausting her opponents within the first set most of the time. That’s Nadal/Serena level stuff, and as hard as Swiatek has worked on being an offensive player it’s well deserved. This is a tricky opener since Tsurenko is very consistent and moves the ball well, but Swiatek should have ample time to solve this puzzle. Swiatek at -150 for the title almost seems fair. Swiatek in 2.

Riske vs Yastremska :

Yastremska’s return to the tour has included some heroic wins and some puzzling losses, so it’s safe to say she’s back to normal. This is such a bad spot playing into Swiatek, but a match she should win. Riske just beat Yastremska a few weeks ago but the match included an 18-16 tiebreaker and was on hardcourt, so I’d expect this to be close. In Yastremska’s favor is the power differential. She hits a much heavier ball and that’s useful on clay. Yastremska in 3.

Schmiedlova vs Kucova :

This one’s pretty interesting because Kucova has won the last two meetings, yet Schmiedlova sits as the favorite. A.K. (Schmiedlova) has been better on clay in the past, but there haven’t been a ton of bright points this season. This, like many of the good first rounds, is probably going the distance. Kucova is too consistent to really just get rolled, and AK is a similar level of solid from the baseline. Schmiedlova in 3.

Kovinic vs Samsonova :

Oddsmakers have pegged Samsonova as a solid favorite here, but I’m not so sure. Kovinic has dealt with injury issues, but her overall level on clay can be very high. Her groundstrokes are reserved but powerful, and she uses the dropshot well. This will be about her fitness, as Samsonova hits the ball huge but can be a bit impatient. It’s the same issue that Rybakina/Yastremska kinda have. The taller players are using more energy to swing and trying to end points quickly, so the ability to temper your offense is always very important. Samsonova should win, but I think it will be close than the odds predict. Kovinic did just win an ITF title, but followed that up by forfeiting in her next match. Samsonova in 2-3.

Halep vs Schunk :

Simona Halep is one of those names that always gets thrown around in the title discussion. This is fair, but lately she’s shown fatigue issues late in matches and that’s just not a recipe to win a major. Schunk is a lucky loser but her match with Baptiste was probably the best quality in the qualifiers after the Alves / Jimenez Kasintseva clash. Schunk is a lefty with a big serve and great power. In short, this is the sort of match where Halep can get herself into trouble. The hallmark of her prowess has been endless rallies and defending, but when her opponent’s offense is legit it can be difficult for her to avoid going into pushmode. Halep should win this in two, but it’s a definite early glimpse into what level she’s bringing to this competition, and the winner of Zanevska/Zheng in round two won’t be much of a reward either. Halep in 3.

Zanevska vs Zheng :

I was curious to see the line here and they have Zheng as only a very small favorite. With Zanevska being half a specialist on clay it makes sense, but Zheng seems like a generational talent. She’s 1-4 in her last 5 on clay which is a bit rough, especially when the one win was just Sloane Stephens. Zheng’s movement on clay doesn’t seem ideal since she’s a bit taller, but Zanevska just went down to Pliskova who has a similar level of firepower as Zheng. This will be tough as two young players manage a pretty huge stage and a winnable match. I’m not sure what to expect; they’ve never played before, and while I think Zheng has the higher ceiling the results go in Zanevska’s favor. Zanevska in 3.

Cornet vs Doi :

Alize Cornet was a hero in Australia and despite her tenacious play on court, her interviews showed her as a really nice person. This is a simple and winnable match, as Doi’s style is best suited to fast hardcourts. She lacks the power to hit through the court, and nobody is really hitting through Cornet anyway as well as she defends. She’s mastered the Nadal art of hitting with depth even when she’s in terrible court position, and it yields dividends. The weather won’t be too hot this week, but she still may wear her opponents down. Cornet in 2.

Bronzetti vs Ostapenko :

Fans looking to see Ostapenko get to and challenge Swiatek may have to wait. Ostapenko is on a 5 match losing streak, and Lucia Bronzetti is playing beautiful tennis. Ostapenko’s strengths are her power. She can generate winners from anywhere. Her weaknesses are her movement and her temper. Bronzetti represents a tough challenge because she pretty much makes all her matches an extended battle. She defends extremely well to the backhand wing and has been hitting with good length all season. Her forehand isn’t a cannon but she moves it well and hits to safe targets. Her serve is a bit above average honestly. The most surprising part of her semifinals run in Rabat this past week was that she actually lost to Trevisan, but Martina had just bested Muguruza so there’s no shame there. I’d love to see peak Ostapenko go on a run, but I also enjoy slump Ostapenko complaining during a loss. Tennis is rewarding because the bracket format means you get to watch all the villains get humbled.

Writing these articles is odd because the most safe prediction to write is “Ostapenko wins”, but she’s shown nothing to indicate that that’ll be the result here. Her opponent is playing more often, has won matches, and is on the rise where Ostapenko’s career has kinda leveled out. Maybe Ostapenko wakes up, and her power will certainly be in control if she does, but for now Bronzetti is playing better tennis. Bronzetti in 2.

Pegula vs Wang :

Heck yeah. Pegula is one of my favorite players to watch. Her tennis looks uncoached; just a good athlete who’s working hard and enjoys playing. She also varies her play greatly depending on how she’s been faring. I’m not a fan of the passive deep-court defensive approach, but her willingness to work her way back into form is refreshing. Speaking of form, Wang is on a two match skid and hasn’t won a set against Pegula in two attempts. Pegula in 2.

Kalinina vs Baptiste :

This is juicy. Baptiste seems poised to notch some good wins on tour. In the past few seasons she’s gone from an automatic win, to a player who would win a set but unravel in the third, to a play who can mount comebacks and close out in a third set. Her win against Schunk was a great shootout and Baptiste’s ability to defend was a big factor. It’ll be necessary against Kalinina, and the question here is whether Baptiste can stay on the front foot often enough to keep Anhelina from controlling the tempo. Kalinina with time or a power advantage is a beautiful player. She has a great serve that she doesn’t land often enough, and huge groundstrokes that are just a bit too inconsistent. She’s the type to zip a struggling opponent, but lose to anyone who’s really playing solid. So here’s an inconsistent opponent who’s playing solid. If it sounds like I’m losing my nerve to make predictions, it’s because I am. This is a brand new meeting, in unique conditions, between two very new players on tour. Don’t bet on it, watch it. This would be a huge win for Baptiste, but she would probably have a better chance against Pegula in round two. Slight edge to Kalinina, who will feel somewhat confident in these conditions. Kalinina in 3.

Sherif vs Kostyuk :

Mayar Sherif is ranked 50th on the tour. That is pretty incredible for someone who isn’t winning main draw matches all that often. Her journey from cinderella story to top 100 player is pretty inspiring, and this is a decent spot since Kostyuk hasn’t been playing great. Kostyuk plays a bit like an inconsistent Badosa. All the shots, serves, and power are there but she rarely keeps it together for a full match. Sherif is mostly going with a direct approach these days. Her serve is decent because she’s tall, but she’s in rallies for the long haul and it’ll be a matter of Kostyuk’s patience that decides the match. If she’s anxious or upset, she’ll lose. There’s just so much time in a claycourt match to dig in and find a rhythm though, and Kostyuk can open up the court very well if she’s in a groove. This is a bit like the Bronzetti Ostapenko match, where Sherif’s basic task is to steal the ring without awakening the dragon. She made a decent run last week, and I’d basically avoid backing either player here, but Sherif has a good shot. Sherif in 3.

Liu vs Zidansek :

Three months ago Zidansek would be a huge favorite here, but her season isn’t going great. Her losses aren’t to terrible players at all (Kasatkina, Azarenka, etc), but they’re frequent, and clay is supposed to be her best surface. Zidansek has a huge forehand and that’s basically her brand. Liu made the finals this week in Rabat, but despite this run the players she beat are not exactly Zidansek’s caliber. It’s easy to look to past results for content for these writeups, but some actual tennis analysis might be more important here since they’re competing in two different tiers. Liu’s strengths are her ability to move the ball and her intelligent shot patterns, but she really lacks the power to overwhelm anyone. In the past she’s done things like play a close set with Serena, but even in that set it feels like she has no chance to win the match. Had Bondar been healthy for their match, I think Liu would have lost. Zidansek moves well enough to deal with Liu’s play, so it’ll come down to who wins the key moments. “Who wins? Why the person that wins of course” is how I feel half the time when I’m discussing these close matches. It feels like Zidansek is in a slump, but there’s nothing particularly wrong with her to cause it. I think she shakes it off. Zidansek in 3.

Alexandrova vs Minnen :

The best thing about the pro tour is knowing that a slumping player will wake up at some point. Alexandrova was losing first round nonstop and just really looking out of sorts, then randomly went on a tear in Charleston and has been playing solid since then. Her power is a huge weapon, and Minnen is a big server who wins behind her power also so Alexandrova should have a stylistic edge here since she moves a bit better than Minnen (shorter). Alexandrova in 2.

Begu vs Paolini :

If Begu was paid by the game she’d be the highest earner on tour. Nobody goes to three sets like Begu goes to three sets, and if you think there won’t be 4 breaks from 5-5 in any given set you’re wiiiiiiild. Paolini is an ideal player to outlast Begu’s power and serving here, but she hasn’t been at her best on clay this season. Begu will have a slight edge in form coming in, and the question will just be whether she can execute. I don’t see a reason for fatigue or errors to stop her in round 1, but Paolini is a likely candidate to lose a set and go up 3-0 in the next. Begu in 3.

Jeanjean vs Parrizas Diaz :

Jeanjean is a brand new name, but the French wildcard has a bunch of ITF wins and has beaten players like Siegemund and Deichmann who are right near that 80-100 level. This is a big ask since Parrizas-Diaz is one of the more consistent players on tour and one of the more conservative as far as coughing up errors, but it’s a great experience and Jeanjean will probably make her way on tour by the end of 2023. NPD in 2.

Andrianjafitrimo vs Pliskova :

Pliskova is wonderful, and her tennis is refreshing. She’s going to make us sweat anytime conditions are not perfect though, and conditions on clay are not perfect. Andrianjafitrimo has way more experience than Jeanjean and has been grinding on the ITF circuit for a while, but this is a tiny bit above what she’s achieved thus far. It’s a spot where even if Karolina starts poorly, she can likely grind out the win. Pliskova in 2-3.

Badosa vs Ferro :

Fiona Ferro is still one of my favorite players. Her backhand is a shortended swing and it’s terribly hard to read. When she lands it down the line it’s extremely effective due to how low the bounce is, and her forehand/dropshot combos are excellent. The problem is just consistency, as she throws in those 6-1,1-6 matches quite often. As a hometown favorite here you want a slightly different draw, as Badosa is a ball machine and Ferro won’t have much chance to win unless she plays a brand new peak level of tennis here. Badosa in 2.

Selekmeteva vs Juvan :

Tough draw for Selekhmeteva who was impressive in qualifying. The qualifiers on the WTA side were really good this event but a lot of them have fallen in some rough spots in the draw. Juvan is currently playing in a finals against Kerber, so there’s some fatigue/burnout hopes. She also doesn’t really blow anyone off the court, and I’d describe her game as Kontaveit with way less power. Juvan is probably good for it here, but I’d avoid paying her premium. Juvan in 3.

Krunic vs Rakhimova :

Rakhimova was one of my favorite new tour underdogs, but she’s had some injury issues and fallen off a bit. Her return is starting to look promising, but the wins haven’t fallen her way yet. This leaves Krunic as a good spot to reverse a trend of her losing every match to Rakhimova. She’s 0-3 but the last one was a three setter in Colombia on clay. This should be close, and Krunic may have a slight edge here since she’s already comfortable with the courts. Another one there’s no sense betting, but Krunic in a very close three.

Zhu vs Kudermetova :

Lin Zhu will ball all day. It’s really amazing watching her move her opponents around and tempering her own offense to keep good length and consistency. Unfortunately, Kudermetova is capable of a higher level of ballstriking and employs the same path to success. This is just a match where one player hits bigger. Kudermetova in 2-3.

Keys vs Kalinskaya :

Yes, let’s all gather round and see if we can figure out whether Keys is going to ball or not. Her and Paire and Kyrgios and Stephens and Osaka and Muguruza and all these other incredibly talented players just don’t seem like they have or want consistency in their games, and I start to think that the grind/luxury of the tour just makes it impossible for them to care some of the time. Kalinskaya is the usual Keys opponent. She can’t possibly hang if Keys keeps the ball in, but she’ll thrive if Keys starts to give her errors. Anna has a great backhand, and her biggest leak is probably struggling to hold serve late in sets. She’ll need early momentum to beat Keys, but she might have it. Kalinskaya in 2.

Townsend vs Garcia :

What in the protected ranking? I’m not entirely sure how Townsend got into RG, but it’s cool to see her play. She’s a lefty who has a ton of skill and good serve. She’s always been fun to watch, but she’s always been criticized for being slightly out of shape. Taylor’s coming off an ITF title win in Charleston, and Garcia forfeited her last match, so Townsend might get a huge boost to her comeback tour here. With Keys/Kalinskaya in the next round she could easily make the third round also. Garcia is a player that can beat anyone or hit 30 backhands into the net, so it’ll be interesting to see her physical state for this. Townsend in 2-3 just based off recent fitness levels.

Volynets vs Golubic :

Good wildcard spot for Volynets. She hasn’t really won much on clay, but Golubic is by no means a specialist. The tour veteran will have her hands full here, and I’d almost expect Volynets to win a set here. Someone in 3.

Rus vs Rybakina :

Aranxta Rus always seems like she’s about to dominate affairs to me. She’s in great shape, and hits the ball solid. The tour is just so deep on talent at this point though, and Rybakina has been elevating her game in the past season. If you’re looking for reasons not to bet on Rybakina, you can point to a 6-2, 6-2 loss to Rus in qualifying in 2018, but that and the absurd price tag (-475) are the only reasons not to think Rybakina will win here. Rybakina in 2.

Collins vs Tomova :

Tomova had a nice run in qualifying, and Collins isn’t exactly doing anything special on clay. Her proactive returning is tougher with the bounces on clay, and the high kick of the ball makes it tougher for her to redirect from the baseline. She still should beat Tomova though, who just doesn’t hit big enough to beat her. Collins in 2.

Rogers vs Martincova :

Two great players with huge forehands. I don’t see a lot between them, but Rogers has had more success on clay in the past and her fitness training has been more serious this season. Rogers in 3.

Udvardy vs Contreras-Gomez :

Contreras-Gomez was playing great in qualifying. She has a nice kick serve, and I’m not sure how I hadn’t seen her before as there aren’t really holes in her game. Picture an Astra Sharma who doesn’t go for as much and doesn’t miss. The tricky part is that Panna Udvardy has been beating this type of player on the South American ITF circuit for a while now; it’s literally how she made her way on tour. Case in point, Udvardy just played FCG in an ITF event and won in three last September. For all the Udvardy hype, a third set on clay is hard to avoid sometimes, and Contreras was really impressive in qualifying (beating Ipek Oz is a great sign on clay). I’d expect the same result. Udvardy in 3.

Peterson vs Kasatkina :

If you want to circle a three hour first round match, this could be it. Rebecca Peterson is Rybakina crossed with Juvan. She has the power, but plays very conservative and works the point. There’ve been some bad streaks this year, but Kasatkina is a player who takes 5-6 shots to win a point so Peterson’s consistency and defending should extend this. Kasatkina on a tear here is likely to have an edge just in confidence and execution, and Peterson’s tough loss to Tatjana Maria stands out in my mind. Kasatkina in 2 super long sets.

Giorgi vs Zhang :

Camila Giorgi retired from her last match, and her opponent is 1-4 in her last 5. It’s tough to decide who’s going to win here, but that’s why they pay me the big bucks. It’s Zhang. No, Giorgi. No. Wait. I honestly don’t know what to expect from Giorgi as far as fitness, and Zhang is pretty consistent but not really great on clay. Giorgi in 3.

Bara vs Putintseva :

If you can’t hit the ball hard, Irina Bara can beat you. She gets everything and doesn’t make errors. It’s a bit like Lauren Davis’ approach to the game. The bad thing here for her is that Putintseva hits a heavier ball, and her approach on tour has always been to outlast her opponent. Yelena was really struggling this season, but she won 4-5 matches in a row in her last event (including Muguruza), and she should be slightly better here having played 3 fewer matches this week. Putintseva in 3.

Paquet vs Sabalenka :

Chloe Paquet is almost a servebot. It’s interesting to see a player on the WTA like that. She’ll be able to make one set close, but Sabalenka seems a bit more secure on clay since she has so much more time. Sabalenka in 2.

Jabeur vs Linette :

Magda Linette can challenge anyone in a 2/3 set duel right now, but this is just a very large hill to climb. We talk about Swiatek as the lock for this title, but Jabeur is in that second tier who’s expected to provide the challenge. Jabeur should win this in 2.

Trevisan vs Dart :

Martina Trevisan, with her tiny notebook of wonderful sayings and pictures of small and blurry turtles (I assume), has won a WTA title. Let that sink in. This fantastic lefty has worked nonstop and achieved something that most players will never do. It’s a Cam Norrie level of effort to exceed expectations as a defensive player, and hopefully she’s got something left in the tank here. No match is really going to be easy for Trevisan, as she’s a baseliner who uses the classic lefty patterns to squeak out errors from her opponents. Dart hasn’t been too active, and clay isn’t where she’ll dominate things. Trevisan in 2.

Grammatikopolou vs Saville :

I was surprised to see Kountry Gramma at +400 against Saville. Some of you may know her as Gavrilova, and she’s a great baseliner, but there’s not a lot in her recent play on tour that would make you think she’s going to crush someone who’s done great in qualifying. Let me put it this way. I like Jimenez Kasintseva to beat Saville. Alves beat Jimenez Kasintseva. McHale beat Alves. Grammatikopolou beat McHale in straights. I just don’t think the odds are right on this one, but Veronika hasn’t really won this tier of matches on tour yet. Possibly a stylistic problem that I’m not seeing. Saville in 3.

Bondar vs Kvitova :

Anna Bondar is by the bookies #s projected to win this match. Kvitova hasn’t been doing much on clay, and Bondar is an offensive specialist which is pretty rare on the dirt. She’s got a big serve and good power which matches up well traditionally against Kvitova (she’s struggled with Cirstea in the past). Bondar in 2.

Kerber vs Frech :

Tough first rounder after a finals run for Kerber. Frech is in that Linette category where her opponent doesn’t particularly matter since she plays to their level generally. Her being fresh counts, as Kerber has just won a 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 finals (just duckduckgo’d it). Kerber is a monthly player though, and if she plays well one week she’s very likely to continue it for 2-3 more weeks. Kerber in 2 tough sets.

Watson vs Jacquemot :

Heather Watson is looking for hardcourt and grass wins, and Jacquemot has been grinding away on clay. I like he newcomer’s chances, and the oddsmakers do also. Jacquemot in 3.

Sasnovich vs Wang :

Very few players have been as sharp as Sasnovich this season, and the quality of play doesn’t seem to take time off thus far. Wang is an exciting prospect, but Sasnovich should win this duel. Sasnovich in 2.

Noskova vs Raducanu :

Raducanu is trying to ease her way onto the tour. Remove her USO win, and she looks like a normal phenom being given chances who isn’t quite ready to ball/problemsolve yet. Add the USO win, and she looks like a kid who was just handed 4 million dollars and fame, and hasn’t really found the desire to grind out tennis matches again. It’s all very speculative at this point, but there’s plenty of time to figure these things out. I really like any qualifier over her right now, but she could also beat any random player in front of her. Noskova in 2.

Bencic vs Jani :

Shame for Jani to land here, but she’ll be thrilled with the lucky loser spot. Jani’s success comes behind her consistency and defense. Clay is perfect for her because she’ll keep the ball coming back forever, the only issue here is that Bencic really does have the offense to hang on the baseline and beat Jani. Should be exciting if Bencic has a slow start in either set, but she should win. Bencic in 2.

Andreescu vs Bonaventure :

Ysaline is back! Unfortunately, the draw contains Andreescu’s. Two months ago this was a win for Bonaventure, but now its ze opposite. Andreescu will be pushed here, but she’s largely shaken off her rust and should be considered as a contender here if she gets past the early rounds where players are fresh enough to hit as big as her. Andreescu in 2.

Siniakova vs Martic :

Petra Martic was trying to have a bad season, but clay has given her a reprieve. This is one I’d like Siniakova in generally, but Martic has started to plug the leaks in her confidence and Siniakova is finding new ones in her game. Pretty weird to rule out such a good baseliner though, and I’d expect this to go three since Martic isn’t the quickest. Martic in 3.

Mladenovic vs Fernandez :

Great spot for Fernandez who’s struggling hard on clay. She could also beat Martic/Siniakova in round 2 so this is a must-win. Mladenovic is Paire at this point; her game is too error-prone to win but she’s capable of serving her way to success. Unfortunately, she also has Zverev’s double-fault issue. Fernandez in 2 but neither of these players are in any form to call home about.

Anisimova vs Osaka :

Good simple first round exit for Osaka. This I think is what you want when you’re struggling with conditions; a match you can lose without criticism, but also a steep challenge to gauge your level. Osaka’s ballstriking is great, her physical ability is fine, she’s just not terribly adept at clay and it’s become a looming issue. The issue doesn’t really exist though, like most mental hurdles. When something is chasing us in a dream, we are scared. RUN! When we have the same dream again, sometimes eventually we become frustrated and turn towards the thing chasing us and …. we wake up. Even better is when you turn and the dream has nothing to show you. A blur? A blob? Maybe a small sheep? A spooky door? Some coins? Our minds are great at coming up with potential problems so we can survive, but most of it is just noise. There is no problem with Osaka losing on clay, and in another view it’s a fun challenge to work on now that her career is already pretty much that of a legend.

For Anisimova, this is a great season. She’s winning a ton of close matches, and she’s playing her hyper-aggressive style which is key. She’ll have an advantage here on the backhand wing, but if Osaka serves well this will be close. If she doesn’t serve well, I do think Anisimova will be all over Osaka’s second serves as she has that Collins’ style of aggro-returning. Definitely the best match of the first round, and I’d expect it to go two if Anisimova wins the first and three if Osaka does. Anisimova in 2-3.

Bjorklund vs Vekic :

I’m excited about Bjorklund backing up her results at the AO qualifiers. I’m also excited that Vekic is back ballin again. This would be a win for Bjorklund but the fact that Vekic’s ballstriking is top tier. It’s hard to beat her on clay when she’s in a good rhythm (picture Yastremska with consistency and playing way more linear). Vekic in 3.

Monnet vs Muchova :

Muchova’s return to the tour has been quiet, but she seems to be plying ok. Monnet will have chances since Karolina can throw in a bad service game here and there, but her variety and problem-solving are top tier. Muchova in 2.

Burel vs Sakkari :

Burel will have a hard time scoring here, and that’ll be her downfall. Clara has all the tools to play at this level, but her small stature tends to leave her needing errors from her opponents. Sakkari makes poor decisions, but only when she feels pressured. Should be a time when she puts it all together, and this is a safe place to start despite Burel’s skill. Sakkari in 2.

Kontaveit vs Tomljanovic :

Tomljanovic seems like she’ll always be on tour, but never really make a huge run. Kontaveit seems like she’s one of the best players and her WTF results show that she can take the racquet right out of people’s hands. This’ll be tough because Ajla hits hard, but she doesn’t move the ball enough to force Kontaveit into errors. Kontaveit in 2.

Sharma vs Gracheva :

Astra Sharma highlight reels would tell a wildly different story than the matches. Her game is huge and it’s just a matter of time and work ethic for her to find the court. Her problems are deceleration on her backhand when she’s under pressure, and the classic problem all juniors have which is knowing that they can execute at a higher level. When you know you (pressure off) can ball, you basically think every ball that goes through the hoop means you’re finally free of the yips. It makes the younger players basically heat check themselves all the time, and it means they overcook shots. Part of knowing you can ball is not needing to end the rally on any particular shot, since you know you can execute off whatever comes back. Look at Novak play table tennis while other guys are swinging for the fences and you can see it. Clay is actually perfect training for Sharma because it forces her to work the point more, and she’ll have a ton of chances against Gracheva. Gracheva is probably going to win this match, but she hits very flat off both wings and it’ll require Sharma’s errors. When you’re winning solely off errors, the tendency to lose sets late is there because you make your own shot selection passive hoping for the errors you got earlier when you were hitting with full conviction. I still like Varvara’s chances (I like anyone’s chances against Sharma honestly, she’s just very inconsistent at this stage). Gracheva in 3.

Davis vs Bouzkova :

If you like rallies and breaks of serve, this is the match for you. Lauren Davis can create perfect angles from anywhere on the court, but Lauren Davis is 5’2”. It means her serve is not that strong, and Bouzkova will have a slight advantage there. Bouzkova is a baseliner as well, and while she hits a bit bigger than Davis, she also can get herself in trouble going for too much with her backhand when she sees the finish line. I think she wins, but it’ll require a lot of patience. Bouzkova in 2.

Ruse vs Mertens :

This is tricky. Mertens is one of my favorite players, but she’s been absent this clay season. She’s won a match or two, but she’s usually good for a deep run or two and a right leg injury has held her back. Ruse is new to the tour, but clay is her specialty and she’s exceptionally good when her shots land. If Mertens winds up in her usual third set, she could lose. Tough to predict an injured player’s results. Ruse in 3.

Gauff vs Marino :

Gauff is so very good, but her play can be so streaky sometimes. Up 4-0 against Kasatkina with the announcers marching out her 17-4 record on clay in 2021, she imploded and lost 6-4. Not the end of the world, and Kasatakina’s run after that was great, but it’s the play during these slumps that is a concern. Gauff tends to go bigger when she’s losing, and it leads to immediate errors. The power is there, but the secondary gameplan is not. For that reason Rebecca Marino is a bit tricky. Gauff is something like -500 for this (between her notoriety and her inconsistency there’s really never a reason to back Gauff right now), but Marino has a solid serve and good power. It’s a good test for Gauff to start. Gauff in 2-3.

Haddad Maia vs Bucsa :

This is an interesting spot. Haddad Maia has stormed back onto the tour, and clay is her specialty. Cristina Bucsa has displayed a pretty rare ability to come back in matches though, down a set and a break does not seem to really alarm her, and while her game isn’t the biggest, that composure is worth a lot. Haddad being lefty is a tough matchup for anyone, and her experience should give her a slight edge here. Beatriz in 3.

Kanepi vs Muguruza :

Muguruza seems like she’s slumping, but it’s hard to tell since she’s regularly thrown in a bunch of 250 losses in the past and then followed it up with a finals run at a major. Kanepi probably is favored in this just based off recent confidence, and she also brings her best game to the majors. Kanepi in 2.

Azarenka vs Bogdan :

Azarenka has shown flashes of brilliance in the past few weeks, and despite her solid play, Bogdan’s one weakness is her lateral movement. Azarenka should be able to defend against Bogdan, but Ana may fall short after hanging tough for a set. Azarenka in 3.

Dodin vs Petkovic :

Petkovic has a great top level, and so does Dodin. One of them is at that top level right now though, so I’d give a slight edge to Dodin here. Her serve is exceptional and her groundstrokes are actual lasers when they’re on. Dodin in 2.

Danilovic vs Galfi :

Dalma Galfi has put in a lot of hard yards on the qualifier circuit. Nice to see her getting her ranking up to where she can have direct entry here. Her game is huge, and she crushes the ball off both wings. This is a tricky spot though, since Danilovic seems to play her best at majors thus far. If you’re unfamiliar, she’s a lefty whose game kinda mirrors Delbonis except her service toss does not exit the Earth’s orbit. I do not know who will win this. It is really Galfi’s ability to remain consistent that makes her win or lose matches, and Danilovic is just good enough to push anyone on tour to 3, so she’s likely a small favorite heading in. Danilovic in 3.

Pera vs Teichmann :

Bernarda Pera has had some good results and some confuzzling results, and this is a really tough spot to produce the former. Teichmann is always consistent, but she’s a player like Kerber who goes on a multi-week streak when she balls. She’s been hot the past few weeks, and her overall level is likely to sneak past Pera who can be a bit error-prone in spurts on the backhand wing (also lefty). Teichmann in 2.

Cirstea vs Maria :

Tatjana Maria could be off the tour for 100 years, and come back and just roast people. Her game is almost 100% slices from the baseline, but wow does it work. Cirstea has had trouble with this in the past (most notably a Vondrousova beatdown where she just couldn’t find her timing on her forehand), but she’s had enough wins and big matches on tour to expect to come through here. Part of dealing with a tricky opponent is not hesitating when you want to attack a shot, and not blinking when this attempt misses. I think Cirstea and her team know what to expect,and she’ll get through. Cirstea in 3.

Stephens vs Niemeier :

Niemeier hits almost as big as Stephens, and plays a way more aggressive brand of tennis. I don’t expect Sloane to fold up at a major, but I think the tour is very slowly passing her by. Julie (we are on a first name basis because her last name is difficult to type?) in 2.

Osorio vs Tan :

Osorio-Serrano is probably the pick to come out of this section of the draw unless Krejcikova is magically match-ready after not having played for months. Osorio’s ability to win deciding sets has been exceptional, and that “keep coming” attitude pays dividends on clay day in and day out. Harmon Tan’s best level sees her winning sets against top players, but similar to Ferro she doesn’t sustain that level for a full match. Osorio is exhausting to play, and constantly hits to the open court. I think she’s good for this challenge, but it will be close. Osorio in 3.

Parry vs Krejcikova :

Oh hello last match of the first round. Diane Parry has only won a match or two on the main tour, which is puzzling since she does great on the ITF circuit. Her game is well-suited to clay, and her one-handed backhand is probably the most beautiful on tour. Do beautiful backhands count in the scoreline? I say yes, but umpires say “please get off the court sir there is a match going on”. As far as Parry’s chances, that really depends on how Barbora has been feeling. Krejcikova hasn’t played since Doha with an elbow issue, so it’s hard to really say. I shot her a text, but the Barbora in my phone says she “doesn’t play tennis” and that I have a “wrong number”. Likely story, but I understand going media-dark during a big event. So yeah, this is the end of the article, and I don’t know what’s going to happen. Krejcikova is likely to lose, but unless this is a retirement entry, it’s unlikely to come here. Krejcikova in 2-3.