2022 Roland Garros Men's Round One Writeup
ROLAND GARROS. This is really the first time that a tournament has set the stage for a perfect story, and I’m hoping we get one. Leading up to the draw, it was hard to really point a finger at anyone in the mix and say they didn’t have a chance to win. Things got a bit lopsided post-draw, and the top half is a monstrous undertaking for anyone who gets through, but that just makes it even better. This is the most exciting and competitive major in quite some time, and I’m hyped. The ATP writeup for round 1 is below, and the WTA will go up tomorrow. As usual, DC is hosting their bracket competitions. Links are below :
Djokovic vs Nishioka :
Paranoia, imploring the sky for help, and a general insistence on a strange nutrition regimen. These are probably the main things these two have in common at this point. Novak is poised in what would seem like a USO 2020 situation if he had not been dealing with repurcussions from his refusal to take the vaccine. He’s healthy, he’s coming off a title win as he usually is for RG, and many of his biggest competitors are looking like they might crash out early. Nishioka has been on a dismal slump and he’ll need some good draws in the US hardcourt swing to get things back on track. He’s lefty and will extend rallies here since he’s basically a smaller version of Ramos-Vinolas, but he hasn’t done anything this season to suggest he’ll trouble Novak. Djokovic in 3.
Molcan vs Coria :
Molcan has mirrored Kecmanovic’s career thus far, by dominating the challenger tour and then experiencing immediate success on the main tour. It’s great to see guys earn their way on tour and as hard he plays his ceiling is pretty high. Molcan applies nonstop pressure and plays the way I imagine Cam Norrie thinks he’s playing. The holes in his game are fatigue issues (he’s had problems with cramps in several events) since he earns his points from the baseline. The ATP website hasn’t bothered to update their site to include his title win or his finals runs, but they definitely happened and will continue to. Kecmanovic seemed to fall off for a few seasons after his initial success, so it’ll be interesting to see how Molcan backs up all these points in the coming year.
Here he has a tough match since him and Coria have split a handful of clay meetings. Coria is pretty much a wall when he plays well, and he uses his speed around the court to force his opponents. Expect long rallies and both players to be looking to wear down their opponents backhands. Working for Coria is the unknown finals factor since Molcan is currently in the finals of Lyon, and the fact that he leads the h2h 2-1. Working against him is that Molcan’s first win was a 6-3, 6-2 win that occurred yesterday. This week’s finalists should be scheduled for the second day of play if RG has any sense, so Molcan should be somewhat recovered. The transition from 250 to 250 is one that usually sees people crash out, but the motivation at a major should be clear. Molcan in 4.
Bedene vs O’Connell :
Aljaz Bedene is a stylish player with a perfect forehand and a solid backhand. He’s been solid on tour for a long time, but recently injuries have taken him away and this is somewhat early in his return. He can win this, but from a betting standpoint there would be no reason to bet on it. O’Connell comes in with question marks also. He’s not the most durable athlete, and clay isn’t his specialty at all. He has a solid win over Ramos-Vinolas this week, but a quick loss to Opelka. He has to sit as the favorite here but Bedene’s best play is an even prospect against O’Connell. For now, O’Connell in 4 is the most likely result.
Cuevas vs Brooksby :
If you can figure out when Brooksby is gonna ball out on clay, you’re a better figurer than me. He’s had a good but random season so far, and despite his technique being a bit flat, his style and consistency seem like they’d let him excel on clay. He qualified last year, and while this section of the draw leads into Novak, he has a few winnable early rounds. Pablo Cuevas has the coolest shots on tour and he’s in incredible shape, but he had an extended break from tennis and hasn’t been himself since his return. I don’t like fading a guy who’s such a veteran, and Cuevas is the type who can steal a match in the 2/3 format against anyone, but it seems like Brooksby will be able to withstand what Cuevas offers. Brooksby in 4.
Dimitrov vs Giron :
Grigor somehow is playing good tennis. It’s like seeing some deer or a chipmunk or a moose in the wild. You freeze and try not to startle it, because you know the good moosemunk tennis will disappear once it becomes aware you’re there. What am I trying to say? Not sure, but Dimitrov should win two rounds here. Giron is not great on clay. He plays too far back, and relies on his speed and inside out forehand a bit too much to really succeed with the same style on clay. There just aren’t enough winners coming off his racquet, and there isn’t a ton of spin on his shots to trouble Dimitrov’s one-hander. Dimitrov just clinched the record for most consecutive majors with this match, so congrats to him, and please nobody startle him. Deermitrov in 4.
Coric vs Taberner :
“Are you sure you don’t want a size larger?” is a question that has plagued Coric and Fognini their entire careers. Small shirts and hard work is the motto for Borna, and this is another spot where he will be losing his collective nuggets if he loses. Carlos Taberner is the perfect player for the early round of a 250 after a major. He hits hard, and he serves hard. It’s a very straightforward but constant approach, and anyone who’s not fully invested in the tournament can easily go down a few games. The problem here will be that Coric has 3 whole sets to get in a rhythm, and Taberner playing at one speed is likely to allow him to do that. Coric has been losing pretty much nonstop, but has won a set in all of those defeats. Djere, Lajovic, Cobolli, Zverev, Sinner, Fokina are the names he’s fallen 2:1 to, and it’s likely that all those players would beat Taberner. This will probably be close since Taberner is a good frontrunner and Coric is not running high on confidence, but Borna should finally get a win. Coric in 5.
Altmaier vs Munar :
This is the tournament where Altmaier first made his mark, with a great run to the round of 16 in 2020, but his play yielded more results on hardcourt for a while. He’s been very good on the US hardcourt challenger circuit, and just nabbed a clay challenger title in Helbronn a week or so ago. I’d say it’s a very even match against Munar, who is the PCB of Alcaraz’s. Huh? I agree. Munar is able to put together a perfect set of tennis like Ruud, but plays to the level of his opponent too often. When he’s up against a better name, he pushes the match to the distance anyway. There’s just something missing to enable him to quickly beat his opponents, and the result is he can’t really escape that 80-120 limbo area in the rankings. His work ethic when he first popped up on tour was incredible, and while I’m sure it’s still there people tend to setle into their role on tour if the rankings and titles don’t come. Munar is better, but Altmaier hits bigger. He has a huge one-handed backhand, and can rally for days. Munar leads the h2h 1-0 in a straight sets victory in Buenos Aires (qualifying), but with Altmaier’s recent run and Munar’s somewhat disappointing loss to Popyrin in Bordeaux, this should be very close. Altmaier in 5.
Schwartzman vs Kuznetsov :
Whoops. Just when you think Kuznetsov is done he qualifies. Diego is a guy who can win any match on clay. When he has a good stretch, he looks unbeatable, but this is not a good stretch. Kuznetsov also beat him in straight sets in their previous meetings on clay, and just came through qualifying with some very impressive tennis. He has a big serve, and the power to hit past Diego. Does he have the consistency? Probably not, but Schwartzman losing to Giron last week means there’s no real reason to back him, especially considering he’ll likely be at an extremely inflated price. He should still win though, as he’s been solving offensive puzzles like this on clay for a long time. It’s just a precarious spot, and I need two Diego wins in a row here before I start to believe again. Schwartzman in 4.
Auger-Aliassime vs Varillas :
You can’t sleep on anyone on tour, but this should be straightforward work for FAA. Since this is the case, I almost think this will go the distance. FAA has more power, moves better, has a huge serve, and is ranked a hundred spots ahead of Varillas. Varillas did play well in qualifying though, and FAA is a notoriously slow starter at times. He seems like he’s almost solved the clay puzzle, which is unsurprising since his first good results in his early career came on clay. Varillas has to play perfect tennis and hope for FAA errors, which is a formula to win a set or two, but not a match. Auger-Alliassime in 3-4.
Karatsev vs Carabelli :
Ugo time. Carabelli had a nice gift in the qualifying draw when Escobedo forfeited, having to just beat Sugita and Ritschard to get through. It leaves him fresh and he gets another reward in one of the more puzzling stories on the ATP. When a guy ascends instantly to the top level then struggles to keep the ball in the court, it’s hard to really explain. Karatsev has looked himself at times, but that god-mode level is gone. He’s lost a number of first round matches, and his timing has been off for long stretches. Has the tour solved him? Was he on that special sauce for his big runs? Did wealth change him? Idk, but this match shouldn’t feel like a scary situation for him and it does. Carabelli is the same as Varillas in terms of weapons. He’s not going to blow anyone off the court and that means Aslan should problem solve and win. Will he? It’s tough to say but I can say with certainty that his head is a perfect circle. Karatsev in 5.
Tabilo vs Gojo :
This is a pattern. Tabilo was at one point this year slated to be the new big thing. He had a match against Fritz where he was expected to compete. Tabilo never showed up for this match. His timing was poor, he couldn’t hit simple rally balls in the court, and since then, he’s been somewhat inconsistent. His problem at the lower levels was always that he needed time to produce his offense. When he has a bit more power than his opponent, his forehand (lefty) goes down the line beautifully and creates a lot of angle when he goes cross. His backhand isn’t great though, and that’s where Gojo will want to make his home. This reminds me a bit of the Popyrin Fognini match where success at the qualifier level is meeting middling results at the tour level. I shouldn’t be so critical of Tabilo, as his slump has been isolated matches where he couldn’t play at all. He’s won a bunch of matches, and should win this one. It won’t be straightforward though. Tabilo in 4.
Krajinovic vs Opelka :
David and Goliath vibes here, if David was hungover and Goliath was tweeting hot takes about the village. Krajinovic can show up and absolutely look terrible. I’ve heard he likes to party a bit, and it’s hard to look at someone who looks exhausted a few games into a tennis match and not believe it. That’s unfair, but Filip has definitely shown that he’s only able to play his best tennis a few weeks a year. Quick unexpected first round exits are also Opelka’s thing, and luckily both played well last week so this can be good. Opelka’s version of pressure is better in a 2/3 format, as he’s able to return aggressively and generally win the sets where he’s serving first. In a 3/5, Krajinovic (with the proper gameplanning), is going to be able to run the big dude and take some edge off his ability. Playing Opelka in a deciding set is as bad as playing Isner in one, so Krajinovic will have to win the early stages here. He’s had some disastrous results here (losing to Milojevic in straights) so there’s no reason to be supremely confident, and Opelka has to serve well for 20-25 games in order to win so it’s a big ask there as well. Krajinovic in 4.
Van De Zandschulp vs Kotov :
Pavel Kotov has put in a lot of work on the challenger tour lately and all that winning is no fluke. He qualified here for his first major (as did Gojo) and he will be inching his way onto the tour at this rate. He has a solid serve, and hits hard off both wings. He’s a bit like a mini-Karatsev, but not quite as strong defensively. This is a nice matchup for two offensive talents, but BVDZ should navigate this win. He has more variation on his serve, a lot more experience, and his easy power during the rallies makes him adept at breaking serve. He’s only 22 titles short of the GOAT debate, but Goatic Van De Zandschulp will not be denied. Van De Zandschulp in 3.
Fognini vs Popyrin :
You have to have a real bad season to make me say that Fognini on a 1-5 run is more reliable than you. Popyrin just won a challenger on clay which is a great way to prepare for a major. No pressure, no scouts, just you working on your game. Still though, his results on tour and his insistence on going for big shots when they aren’t landing has made him into a very Jack Sock/Benoit Paire style prospect. When he’s on, he has a good week, but it’s rare. Fognini has been playing a lot of events, and giving an effort in most of them.
Despite the challenger title and Fognini’s string of losses, he’s likely still the betting favorite here. I don’t want to discuss gambling too much in this article, but it’s one of those spots where it’s very difficult to bet because of the price. Fognini lands at -182, which is around what you’d expect going in. Fognini is in a slump results-wise, but has the capability and physical fitness to grind this match out no matter how Popyrin plays. The problem lies in name recognition. Fognini is always going to draw more investment than Popyrin, so the books couldn’t really go lower if they wanted to without it being a direct nod to Popyrin (a hedge against exposure when they are leaning into an upset being likely). The issue is in deciding whether Fognini is -182 because that’s the expected investment, or because that’s the modeled outcome, and what % of both is factored into the price. In a situation like this where both are equally likely, there isn’t much reason to be on the Fognini side of things because you’re paying a premium. Selecting a winner at an inflated price is a bad purchase, especially when tennis prices are being offered every day of every week of every year.
In general, betting first rounds is an error. The conditions are unique, it’s hard to gauge who’s going to practice/play well, and the books are working with information that you are not. The results from the previous weeks and their physical condition are already factored into the prices, and players will enter a major at less than their peak condition because of the ranking points/prize money at stake. This becomes a spot where Popyrin is the only reasonable side, but backing him is almost a mess since you’re trying to predict how success at the challenger level translates to playing a completely different level of player in a completely different format. There’s no result here that would spin too many heads, which generally means a match is worth skipping.
Ok, that hot nonsense aside, Fognini and Popyrin should be an explosive match. Popyrin will come in high on confidence, and Fognini does not like being embarrassed by big hitting. Fognini will cough up errors trying to dominate affairs, but he is a slightly better player when he’s not protecting his fragile ego. Fognini in 4.
Wawrinka vs Moutet :
STAN! This RG has a million potential cinderella stories, and STAN! is one of them. It’s hard to hate this guy, and his game looks rusty but not any worse for the wear. His serve is still a cannon, and great champions tend to step up at the big events. If he’s able to get past this round, he’ll … he’ll uhhh … he’ll lose to Nadal. Whoops. What a tough draw. Moutet would lose to the old Stan, but he is really tricky to get past in the 3/5 format. He’s incredibly fast, plays a ton of dropshots, and will rally forever. This could see Wawrinka get up early, but I think lack of matchplay will let Moutet pull away. Those sprints to the net are gonna be tough on Wawrinka, and he wasn’t hitting his backhand terribly hard this past week so Moutet will have an easier time executing. Moutet in 4.
Nadal vs Thompson :
I am cheering for Nadal. I wanted Medvedev to win the Australian Open, but Nadal has become the hero again and again in these spots. Dealing with a chronic foot injury is no fun at all, and no matter what treatment/regimen you try to employ these things don’t seem to go away quickly. If you don’t train, you’re not ready to compete. If you do train, you’re not healthy to compete. It’s a mess, and it’s one I’ve learned the hard way after dropping a plate on my toe in the gym : ). Whatever is wrong, you favor it. You can shift the weight and compete, but without realizing it you’re putting too much stress on other parts of your foot. This leads to inflammation, stress fractures, and constant nerve flaring. For me, I’d be happy just to walk without pain again. For this guy Nadal, winning the French Open seems reasonable. Love it, and the only bad thing about the idol worship of Nadal is that it precludes people from realizing that they can do the same thing. The guy is a product of hard work, and anyone can put in the same effort and get the same joy from their results. “TODAY WE ARE ALL NADAL,” I announce from my balcony to a few squirrels who are not listening, while brushing cookie crumbs off my shirt. Anyway yeah it’s hard to even imagine anyone doing what he has, but it’s important that he did it so others can see that it’s possible.
The foot injury announcement has placed him into Federer territory for me. It’s unlikely to go away, and for the first time a surgery doesn’t seem like an option. On the flipside, it’s hard to gauge from press how significant injuries are, and these guys are very cagey about their physical fitness, so we could still see a run from Nadal here. He looked great in the second set in his loss to Alcaraz, and it seemed like whichever got to swing their forehand first in a rally would end up winning that point. That’s good news for Nadal, and this first round against Thompson is also. He’s likely to put up a good fight, but he doesn’t have any real path to scoring on Rafa. Nadal in 3.
Zverev vs Ofner :
Zverev’s grunting is obnoxious, and adds nothing to his shot. His range is suspect, and he leaves balls near the service line for long stretches in matches. He acts like he’s scared to miss, and allows other players to control things as if he’s some master defender. It doesn’t matter too much though, as behind this devastatingly bad mind is a 6’6” tennis phenom with one of the best serves on tour. It’s like trying to watch someone regress into a smaller person’s game, and I’m sick of it. Ofner did great to get through qualifying, and he’s always grinding away on the challenger level so this is a great boost for his ranking, but Zverev should cruise through here. Zverev in 3.
Lajovic vs Baez :
Tough draw for both. Lajovic has grabbed the wins he’s needed to to stay on tour, but this has been a rough season. Clay is where he’s expected to get most of his points, and he’s had some good and bad results (beating Ruud, losing to De Minaur). Baez is proving to be one of the toughest outs on clay, and that’s going to be a problem for Lajovic. It’s hard to see either player dominating affairs here, and it’s hard to gauge where they will score easily. I expect this to be a 3-4 hour match, unless Lajovic is really unable to find his timing. He tends to hug the baseline and take the ball early if he can, which can backfire. Still, he’s very quick defensively and counterpunches well, which will be useful against Baez’s attack. I think Sebastian’s versatility on offense will get him through, since he employs a number of dropshots and Lajovic tends to score most of his points from the baseline. Baez in 4-5.
Nakashima vs Majchrzak :
Last week Majchrzak was priced at a pickem (even odds) against Gasquet. Gasquet had just beaten Medvedev and played excellent in the process, and Majchrzak has never really done anything spectacular despite being around the tour for a while. We all expect the young talent to come through, but the pricing didn’t make a ton of sense. Gasquet won in very straightforward fashion, and now Nakashima is even odds wth Majchrzak. I think this one is more realistic than speculative, and this is a must-win for both of these players. Nakashima just beat Majchrzak in qualifying at Rome which makes the price a little odd here, but I guess someone out there really believes in Kamil. The match was decided by a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline so expect something similar here. Nakashima in 4-5.
Griekspoor vs Davidovich Fokina :
This is a good time to tell you that ADF is the cinderella story to end all cinderella stories. Is he a lock to win the title? Yes and no. Yes he is a lock, and no don’t ask me if I’m serious. There are very few players on tour who actually have every shot, and Fokina is one of them. Remove the serves, and he has the skill to compete with the top guys. It’s unfortunate that serving is allowed, and while ADF is a very promising prospect, him winning RG would be one of the most unreal Nalbandian style runs ever. This is a good match to get started though, since Griekspoor is a good bit removed from his 29 wins in a row at the end of last year. Fokina is a natural on clay, and Griekspoor hasn’t been beating that next tier of player too often on clay. Fokina in 3-4.
Isner vs Halys :
It’s tempting to just copy-paste old Isner writeups. Here is the classic easy first round for Isner, where he’ll make me look dumb and lose the first two sets if I pick him. Big giant servebot vs anyone in the top 500 on clay is always going to be close. Isner never really improved his tennis enough to be a threat, and he’s too big to win rallies against the pro level that often. Halys is a nice player with a good serve, but this will just come down to tiebreakers where cumulative pressure is likely to hand Isner a break or minibreak. Isner in 4-5.
Daniel vs Barrere :
Gregoire was one of the most reliable qualifiers for the majors, so it’s nice to see him rewarded here with a wildcard. His play has been inconsistent though despite having one of the more solid backhands in tennis, and Taro Daniel is a worker. The guy plays measured, careful, nonstop tennis, and playing within yourself on tour is more useful than you’d expect. Daniel in 3.
Mmoh vs Zapata Miralles :
Mmoh is a pusher, and spent this week moping about umpire calls against Guinard, then offering just his racquet for the handshake. The ballmark system is pretty infuriating at times, but how long do you have to be on tour before you realize that once they make a decision they’re not changing it. He needs a coaching change I guess, as he’s a top tier athletic talent who swings as hard as Tomic. Zapata should roast him, but Mmoh’s defensive abilities at this level do yield results very often. Zapata Miralles in 4.
Rodriguez Taverna vs Fritz :
Fritzyyyyyy. Fritzy could lose this match, but I no longer hope he does. There was a glorious time when Taylor would mope and complain his way through matches he was supposed to win, but he actually started to play great tennis recently, and also seems committed to making a full effort when he’s on the court. Rodriguez Taverna has a ton of wins on the South American challenger circuit, and his ability to hold serve well will come in handy here since Fritz has a big serve. Expect a tiebreaker or two, and the qualifier to threaten a few times. Fritz really should put this away in 4, but this is one of the better qualifiers so Fritz will need his best tennis. Fritz in 4-5.
Norrie vs Guinard :
Guinard! Nice smooth player inching his way towards the tour. Unfortunately I don’t think he has the power nor physical strength to hit through Norrie for 3/5. Norrie in 3.
Kubla vs Kudler :
Spiderman meme. Jason Kubler has been dubbed the Nadal of Australia but his hard-driving play has never really yielded main-draw results. Here’s a chance for him against a veteran. Kudla plays very solid, but never blows anyone off the court. He’s a flow player despite being consistent, and he tends to string wins together, and he hasn’t really done much of late. Their one prior meeting was a grasscourt win for Kudla 2,3 but that can be mostly discounted. Besting Albot in the qualifier is a good sign for Kubler, although not much can be gathered from him beating Pedro Sousa since Pedro is likely to lose to anyone when he’s missing and him missing is the most random and frequent occurrence on tour. Leaning into the upset here a bit, just based on form and stage in their careers. Kubler in 5.
Dellien vs Thiem :
Do we need rusty Thiem in this half of the draw too? The odds here are a spicy pickem, which is pretty much spot on. Thiem has looked somewhat fit so far, with his movement around the court seeming fine, but his forehand hasn’t been consistent nor has he been swinging with the same conviction. His backhand has looked great at times, but the execution has been lacking. He’s just not the same player we saw getting ready to take over the tour, but this is still a winnable match, and winning matches is all it will take for Thiem to find a new rhythm. Dellien is a clay specialist, and that usually tends to mean a guy who doesn’t make many errors, uses a lot of height and angle when he can, and just generally makes it extremely obvious that it will be a difficult match to play. The issue here will be that Thiem’s movement should mean he’s able to defend against Dellien’s offerings. Dellien scores mostly with inside out forehands, and his backhand is a safezone for Thiem. He doesn’t serve huge, which has given him some trouble against guys who aren’t as adept on clay (losses to Hurkacz where he played even but always seemed like he was climbing uphill). This is a good spot for him, and Thiem’s current level will make it exactly even. Given the way things have gone so far, I almost like Dellien here, but Thiem in 3/5 will have ample time to problem solve, and the guy is one of the few next genners who actually has a great mind for tennis. Thiem in 5.
Borges vs Khachanov :
I am a big fan of Nuno Borges. He has smooth offense, he isn’t redlining most of the time, and he plays defense. He doesn’t have the pop or accuracy, but he has a similar serve to Sampras and he’s earning his way on tour fair and square by racking up a ton of wins on the challenger level. He went the college route which is pretty rare these days on the ATP, and he has a great stage here to showcase his abilities. Karen Khachanov was a guy I had huge hopes for on tour, and he has somehow achieved all of them without achieving any of them. He has a silver medal in the Olympics, he’s been in the top 20-30 for forever, and he’s won some titles and some huge matches. That big run in a major though just hasn’t come. He tends to play to the level of his opponent and despite hitting huge, he plays very textbook tennis that allows his opponents to read him. It could just be that professional tennis is very hard and these guys are very good, or he may just be above average at everything but exceptional at nothing. Borges has a fighting chance here, and it’ll really come down to who blinks at the end of sets. This is always the case, but both will be cognizant of the impact this win/loss has on their career. Khachanov because this would be a super disappointing round to crash out of, and Borges because a win here basically pays for another year of travel on tour. Pulling for the upset, but I think Khachanov will navigate this in the end based on physical strength. Khachanov in 5.
Korda vs Millman :
It’s always a puzzle when Korda is just expected to plays lights out tennis. Millman has been plugging away and winning matches he’s not “supposed” to, and will make this a really long drawn out affair if Korda doesn’t play aggressive. We all saw Korda’s marathon with Moutet at the AO, and while Millman doesn’t possess the same offense, it seemed late in that match like Korda had no way to get out of rallies quickly on a quick hardcourt, so this will be tricky to navigate. Since it’s the first round, I guess it’s expected that Korda will be fresh. Korda in 3-4.
Harris vs Gasquet :
It’s funny to see his contemporaries pulling out of events while Gasquet, who seemed like he’d crash off the tour, is starting to find his form again. He had a nice run in Lyon behind some stellar play on his backhand wing, and he’s serving really well. This is a winnable match given Harris’ recent slump, but Gasquet will be looking to close out quickly since a 4-5 set match likely means he’ll lose. It might be visual bias, but Gasquet always looks like he’s in a rush. Great way to play, but it leaves me speculating that he might have trouble in the 3/5 format. Harris should be making the same progress as his contemporaries, but his solid play comes randomly. He’s been mundane through the clay season, so Gasquet is a small favorite here. Gasquet in 4.
Ramos-Vinolas vs Kokkinakis :
ARV crushes worlds in South America and struggles in Europe. It’s an odd situation, but this is an eminently winnable match. Kokkinakis has no results of note on clay, and is inconsistent enough that ARV burying him in the backhand corner should yield results eventually. ARV in 3-4.
Londero vs Alcaraz :
Londero gets a nice gift, and a nice vacation in Paris. Jokes aside, it is unlikely that Alcaraz loses early in this event. He plays too hard to be upset by anything less than a robotic level of effort, and Londero is an artistic level of offense. The weight of shot is lacking though, and Alcaraz will be able to excel in most of the rallies. His forehand is bigger, and his backhand hits much harder.
Alcaraz really could win this title, despite the futures markets being skewed. In December I was looking at Alcaraz Roland Garros futures during the Next Gen finals, and they were already down to +2500. They plummeted that week to +2000, and $ has continued to flow in since then. It’s partially that Nadal and Novak are in suspect physical form, but it’s partially that everyone gets a bit of fear of missing out when it comes to a young player. The same type of $ flowed in when Zverev appeared poised to take over the tour, so even though Alcaraz IS good enough to win Roland Garros, the prices offered now are still not worth purchasing. Betting markets are determined by a number of factors, but one of the main ones is expected investment. The futures prices are an aggregate of the expected odds over the projected rounds of the tournament, so if you see someone at low odds, you’re not getting a great deal. Alcaraz and Nadal and these types will sit at -2000 half the time in the early rounds, and those are prices no one wants to pay so there’s little sense to taking their futures. Add in that the futures markets regularly include big names who aren’t even competing in the events (Murray/Delpo) and guys who are fan favorites but have no shot (Wawrinka/Thiem) and it’s just not a great place to get info on anything other than public sentiment. Alcaraz in 3. It begins.
Ruud vs Tsonga :
A nice matchup for Ruud, and a tough spot for Tsonga’s retirement tour. Jo-Wilfried was one of the best and most exciting second options during the big 3 reign, and gave them trouble every time he got on the court even if he didn’t notch many wins. It’s a shame to lose him, but he’s got a beautiful family and he deserves to finally eat some food. He’s been making progress in his last few matches but Ruud is too good at this point to get hit through by a single forehand. Ruud in 3.
Ruusuvuori vs Humbert :
This is a good spot for both since neither has been excelling on clay. Humbert has really only beaten Andujar, which is a nice win but Pablo isn’t playing his best tennis right now. Ruusuvuori has threatened in a bunch of matches but hasn’t notched many wins. Ruusuvuori will have the biggest weapon in his forehand, and should probably sneak through since Humbert still hasn’t cracked the outdoor tour wide open. He has a ton of shots but is just a little bit physically weak at times. Rusuuvuori in 4, but neither one of these guys is very reliable here.
Sousa vs Tseng :
Joao Sousa is busy lighting it up in Geneva, playing the finals tomorrow against Ruud. He likely won’t pull out of RG since he’s trying to work his way back up the rankings, so the question here is how fatigued will he be. Two days rest should be enough, but Tseng was one of the sharpest qualifiers and won a bunch of matches on clay last year. There’s levels to this, and Sousa playing his best is likely to best Tseng, but it should be close since Sousa will be putting in a lot of work tomorrow against Ruud. This is a wild resurgence from Sousa and in between these two finals runs he basically lost to everyone, so it’s even more interesting. Sousa in 4-5.
Gojowczyk vs Sonego :
Gojo has been less than stellar since returning from some or other injury, and Sonego has outperformed him while in a pretty bad slump of his own. This is an offensive duel where Sonego should win. He has some great runs on clay in the past, and Gojowczyk’s timing was pretty awful last time I saw him. Sonego in 3-4.
Tiafoe vs Bonzi :
Benjamin Bonzi has been hinting at greatness for a while, but the tour is full of monsters. He seems like he’ll settle into that Gombos range where he’ll win a match or two here and there but never really upset the bigger names. Tiafoe, despite playing clay in a bit of an aggressive style, has unravelled some good clay courters. His reliance on his serve gives him a slight edge here, but his errors can pile up early and Bonzi will have chances in this match. Tiafoe is in that rare category where he gets to choose his own playstyle, and that means toeing the line between foolish and too passive is his only real battle. He’s great at net, and has good feel on his dropshots and volleys. Playing the game in the frontcourt is probably his best bet here, but Bonzi’s backhand can break down also so Tiafoe minimizing his own backhand errors is likely the best coaching he can receive. Tiafoe in 4-5.
Lehecka vs Goffin :
A few months ago this would be Lehecka’s coming out party. He’s been really solid on the challenger tour and has won matches in most of his 250 attempts. Goffin was suffering from an eye injury/long COVID and a bunch of other issues it seemed, but he caught fire in this clay swing and that leaves him as a pretty good favorite to win a few rounds here. Goffin defeated Lehecka 4,3 in Monte Carlo and it’s likely that a similar result takes places. Close battle, Goffin slightly more resilient. Goffin in 5.
Cecchinato vs Andujar :
The alarm goes off at 6AM. Marco “Marco” Cecchinato rolls out of bed. His bed feels oddly squishy today, and there are more leafs than usual. He reaches for some of his trusty hair goop and begins turning to the mirror. Only the mirror is not there, and the hair goop is poison frog juice, and why are there poison frogs in his hotel room? Wait, where is the hotel room? It’s not there. Because Marco Cecchinato has been transported to a jungle. Which jungle? One of them. The one where PABLO ANDUJAARRRRRRRRRRR lives.
“Your hair is curly, like a beautiful sheep,” compliments Andujar, from a clearing nearby. He is surrounded by pheasants, who compliment him in Spanish. “Thank you?” says Cecchinato, who is not surrounded by pheasants. “You’re welcome,” says Andujar, who is gracious, bilingual, and can summon volcanos.
The problem here is that this might be the only round I get to talk about Pablo Andujarrrrrrrr. Borne of a Mayan dream and a series of heroic pirate ladies, the legendary figure is allegedly the man depicted in most stone carvings and cave walls. His tennis has not been the sharpest of late, but there is good reason to think this is an even match. One, Andujar is one of the more consistent players on tour, and doesn’t make many mistakes when he’s moving the ball. Two, Cecchinato is terribly inconsistent, and his time on tour seems somewhat limited. What works in his favor are a few very solid runs at this event, one to the semifinals in 2018 (beaten in straights by Dominic Thiem). Last year he made the third round, and there’s a good chance for someone in this section to surprise Hurkacz/Goffin/Tiafoe and steal their draw. If either player plays their best they’ll win, as neither has much to show for themselves in the past month or so as far as level. Cecchinato is a little sharper, but neither is very reliable here. Andujar losing to Humbert is a concern for me. Cecchinato in 4-5.
Zeppieri vs Hurkacz :
I gotta confess I don’t know this guy Zeppieri very well. Qualifying is great, but Hurkacz has been playing some decent claycourt tennis lately and his serving has been carrying him through. I give Zeppieri the same chance as Dellien, meaning he can make things close and maybe steal a set, but in the end he’s going to have to do too much work to win. Hurkacz in 4.
Shapovalov vs Rune :
Shapovalov continues to struggle because of immaturity on the court. It doesn’t seem likely to change anytime soon, and it’s ruining his enjoyment of some matches so its a double curse for him. I’d like to see him take some time to train in another discipline where he can get humbled a bit, because the “this isn’t working why isn’t it working I want to win” attitude that comes through in his tantrums on court is the mark of a child. I don’t mean to reduce his game to his maturity level, but his game is good enough to win majors now so there’s no reason for him to not work on what’s missing. Risking a glimpse at yourself and admitting you’re kind of an idiot is a great way to begin learning, but this kind of introspection is absent in the “you’re great keep going” roller coaster that a tennis phenom lives. Anyway, this is probably the best matchup of the first round, as Holger Vitus Rune has really come into his own on tour as far as play. He had some unfounded hype early, but he hits the ball big, moves extremely well, and plays hard. His downfall is the same as Shapo; he’s a whole entire idiot and thinks the problems are external. Being immature, or having a temper, or any personality trait is really only a problem if you don’t know it. Once you are aware of your tendencies and how your thoughts flow in a situation, it is simple enough to turn your attention elsewhere in these moments, take a deep breath, and create a different outcome. The racquet smashing, the yelling at umpires, the frustrated outbursts at coaches; these are not useful, and only add belief to one’s opponent.
As far as the tennis, I think Shapovalov is a bit more physically strong at this stage in their careers. Rune is a great floater in the draw, but Shapo’s single-speed approach to tennis is not exactly terrible on clay, and he will be aware via his team (hopefully) that with Martinez not playing his best tennis and De Minaur being the other seed, this is a great spot in the draw. Shapovalov in 5.
Martinez vs Laaksonen :
Laaksonen is a great server and has big power, so he’s always a threat. Martinez is the complete player but doesn’t usually blow anyone off the court. He’s just good enough to beat most of the guys ranked below him, but it’s always Martinez heading into a 5th set when a major rolls around. Laaksonen doesn’t have the claycourt prowess to beat Martinez, but Pedro rarely makes it easy on himself and Laaksonen’s power makes him breaking serve a handful of times a possibility. Martinez in 4.
Gombos vs Cachin :
Nice to see Cachin get the lucky loser spot as he’s been playing great tennis the past few weeks. He’s won two challenger titles back to back and made a quarterfinals and another finals where he fell to Munar. Compare this with Gombos who successfully navigated qualifiers and this should be a good match. Cachin has a sharp game and plays a bit like Londero, so Gombos’ main task here is to keep him moving. Pedro won’t hurt him as much on the run and Gombos’ power is pretty good at unravelling opponents who’s feet aren’t settled. Should be close, but at this stage I almost give a slight edge to Gombos since Cachin is coming off a 2,3 loss to Kotov who is another big hitter. Gombos in 5.
Gaston vs De Minaur :
The crowd will be a great factor in this one, as Gaston’s nonstop dropshot offerings will run De Minaur ragged. The problem is how quick De Minaur is at moving forward. He’s one of the quickest guys on tour and has recently found his sea-legs on clay, nothing a few victories against Humbert, Paul, and Lajovic. Not huge wins, but as flat as he hits it’s impressive for him to beat anyone. I like his chances here simply because Gaston is not going to hit through him, and De Minaur tends to be pretty reliable in early rounds at majors. ADM in 4.
Evans vs Cerundolo :
This is a weird section of the draw where I’m excited about the matchups but am not quite sure what to expect. I like Evans’ progress on clay but he hasn’t been crushing worlds this season. The win over Djokovic last season feels very far away. On the flipside, Cerundolo’s booming offense is excellent against claycourt specialists, but Evans’ quickness is going to be tough to just hit through. Cerundolo will need to be patient and also serve well. His usual approach where he swings for the fences and plays a bit passive when he can’t won’t work because Evans is looking to work several shots before he executes anything offensive. It feels like Cerundolo would win this 2/3 but in the extended format I think Evans will outwork him. Evans in 4-5.
Ymer vs Duckworth :
Haven’t seen much of Duckworth recently, although he popped up at Lyon last week to get a match in. He hasn’t played on tour since the Australian Open, and this isn’t the hardest match in the world but it’s hard to win without matchplay. Ymer and Duckworth have a similar defensive approach, but Ymer will be fitter. Ymer in 3.
Pouille vs Kolar :
Pouille with a wildcard is always dangerous, but Kolar was supremely impressive in qualifying. He should win here, despite Pouille being the type to steal a set off anyone. Kolar is just more consistent and Pouille seems like he’s still trying to recapture his old game. Kolar in 4.
Musetti vs Tsitsipas :
Sure, let’s take an extremely unbalanced draw (not anyone’s fault) and make it worse. Musetti hasn’t been doing much, but his defensive abilities and his infusion of pace when he wants to is something that makes him very dangerous in Paris. This is just a bad place to start, but it’s rough on Tsitsipas too. Musetti withdrew against Zverev in his last outting, but he won 4-5 matches in a row prior to this. Tsitsipas comes in having one of the better clay seasons of anyone, but now there’s real pressure to not fumble the bag. Being in the bottom of the draw allegedly “alone” will weigh on him a slight bit, and playing a younger player with a similar style and a ton of staying power in rallies and variety will bother the F out of him. This is Rune Shapo but with two emo dudes instead of two edgelords. That’s reductive labelling but the TC announcers will absolutely not stop mentioning Musetti’s breakup whenever he plays, and Tsitsipas’ twitter thievery is a little bit sadpants.
Tsitsipas has the better serve here, and has no real fitness issues. This is a hyped match, but he should navigate it. Musetti being passive may yield some Tsitsipas shanks, but Stefanos does very well with time and he isn’t likely to get tired. Tsitsipas in 4.
Rublev vs Kwon :
If this was hardcourt I’d be a little nervous about Rublev. Kwon is really surging and seems completely past the knee injury that held him back for a season or two. On clay though, his backhand just isn’t as good. On hardcourt, he has great length and moves the ball a bit like Djokovic (Djoko-lite), but the length isn’t as useful on clay, and Rublev will have a big advantage in the hitting department. A quick loss to Krajinovic isn’t inspiring for Rublev, but he should get through here. Rublev in 4.
Mannarino vs Delbonis :
Interesting matchup. Mannarino is the quintessential crafty left-hander, and Delbonis is the classic power left-hander. I think it’s easy to rule Mannarino out on clay since he doesn’t hit hard, but he still has to be beaten. Delbonis will be able to boss most of the points but he takes a very big swing and if Mannarino can keep the ball low it’ll yield errors. This one is a tossup although Delbonis should put it away if he serves well. Delbonis in 4.
Paire vs Ivashka :
Ilya Ivashka finally got going this week, and despite a loss to Sousa I think he’s primed for a run here also. When he plays well he drags his opponent into very deep waters, and having this done to you by a guy on the taller end is pretty tough, since Ivashka scores on his serve a good bit. Here is a very good opponent for him also, since Paire absolutely cannot find his way out of rallies on the forehand wing. If Ivashka can return well at any juncture, that set might be over quickly. Paire playing at home though, and wielding one of the best serve/backhand combos on tour could make it a shootout. Most of Paire’s matches go this way, but the trick here is that Ivashka doesn’t go for that much himself. When they get on even terms, I would expect Paire to be too anxious about going to the dropshot, and Ivashka should capitalize. Ivashka in 4-5.
Garin vs Paul :
It’s funny to see two guys who are exceptional talents struggling so much. Tommy Paul has all the tools to play on clay, but the results aren’t really there this season. This makes this a tough match, even though Garin has turned in so many losses in the past year that he considered retirement. As far as who’s turned things around more, it’s probably Garin. He won a hard match against Cilic recently, and this is an important spot for him. Paul at his best can blow people off the court, but struggling to find range on his forehand is a bad time. Garin is looking just go move you and outlast you on clay; there really is no nuance to his game at this point. That might be the exact formula to earn a win against Paul though. Garin in 5.
Basilashvili vs Cressy :
Basilashvili and Cressy are both having middling clay seasons, but Cressy doesn’t really expect to do much on clay so he’ll probably take the handful of wins he’s gotten. His chances here aren’t the worst since Basil is an error-prone player. Cressy is still 100% serve and volley even on clay, and if Basil starts missing a bunch he can steal sets. The problem is that Cressy’s usual hyper-aggressive returning isn’t always as useful on clay and if his serve isn’t scoring or his first serve percentage suffers, he’ll be out quickly. I almost expect these guys to lose to Agamenone in the second round, but Basilashvili should win here. Basil in 4.
McDonald vs Agemenone :
Time to believe in McDonald again! The trouble is, I really don’t. He has his moments and opponents on hardcourt, but on clay I don’t see how a guy without much power is going to win. Agemenone caught my eye months ago when I watched him play some hardcourt tennis. He has a huge serve, and big groundstrokes. It gives the same vibes as Mager, where it’s clear that his movement isn’t tour level but it probably doesn’t matter on clay since he gets so much more time to set up. It’s tricky because McDonald is better at tennis overall, but Agamenone is entering with nothing to lose and playing in perfect conditions for him. I would not be surprised at the upset here, given McDonald is like 1-4 in his last matches. Agemenone in 4.
Carballes Baena vs Otte :
5 sets, 3 sets, but definitely not 4 sets. Or maybe 4 sets. RCB is about to play a challenger finals tomorrow, so he’ll be sharp for this first round. He’s a really hard working claycourter with an extremely solid defensive backhand. If he can wear you down, he’ll win. Otte is a serve and volley style player who hangs in the baseline rallies with a cagey yet lazy approach. It’s interesting to see him beat players who underestimate his frame and his style, because he hits the ball consistently funky, but it goes to difficult targets. These two lovely nuggets have played twice before, splitting straight set victories with a tiebreaker occurring in both. So here, Otte is less sharp but fresher, and I’d expect a full 5 sets. I don’t see how either will run away with the match, since RCB is so defensive and Otte has his serve to rely on. If it comes down to physical fitness, I think RCB wins. RCB in 5.
Fratangelo vs Sinner :
Great job to qualify by Fratangelo. He probably doesn’t have too much time left on tour so it’s neat to see him playing well. This match isn’t impossible, but he’ll likely only be able to hang with Sinner’s best level for a single set. Sinner in 4.
Carreño Busta vs Simon :
Nice swansong for Simon, and although the French magic can always occur, this is probably not a winnable match. Pablo knows he can play forever, and Simon wasn’t great in his last clay outting. PCB in PC3.
Vesely vs Johnson :
I was surprised to see Vesely only -160 against Johnson, but Jiri just isn’t consistent on tour. Johnson’s backhand isn’t going to get much done here since Vesely is lefty, and Johnson pretty much exclusively slices the ball. With Johnson barely playing coming into this, and Vesely not being too active either, this is not easy to call. Vesely hits a bit bigger, so I’d lean into him. Vesely in 4.
Fucsovics vs Blancaneaux :
Blancaneaux looked great in qualifying and finished strong against Masur. Fucsovics is the tour guy with all the fitness and experience but this is a hard spot. He’s lost a bunch of matches recently and Blancaneaux plays a very fluid game from the baseline. Fucsovics will likely have trouble scoring, and Blancaneaux will have the crowd at his back. It’ll be the win of his career, but everything is primed for it to happen. Blancaneaux in 4.
Balasz vs Cilic :
Attila Balasz is back! Cilic in 3. The thing is, Attila plays a really funky claycourt game. He’ll run all the way to the backstop, then hit a winner. He’ll hit a dropshot that you never saw coming, or a kick serve that puts you into the bleachers. Having not been playing though, and dealing with Cilic? Nah, it’s too big of an ask.
Kecmanovic vs Etcheverry :
Etcheverry is a fine player, but it’ll be hard for him to score on Miomir. The clay specialist is dangerous against a hardcourt player, or a guy trying to create offense where there isn’t any. Kecmanovic is patient, and is playing at a higher level right now. I don’t agree that Kemanovic is -830 against anyone on tour, but he’s likely to be a cut above for this entire match. Kecmanovic in 3.
Bublik vs Rinderknech :
Both these guys are on losing streaks, which is unsurprisingly since their 23andme’s came back and they are both 14% spaghetti. Bublik is just hard to predict, since he can serve the lights out but is playing his own measured style most of the time. Rinderknech having the crowd and playing a more agile game from the baseline is a plus, and he did win their most recent meeting (2:1 on hardcourt in Doha), but there’s not a lot to separate these two or their chances. Rinderknech in 5.
Djere vs Berankis :
Berankis is being given no chance here, but his clay results over the years have always lagged behind. It’s strange to me since he hits so hard, but the ball kicks up high and Berankis is not the tallest crayon in the box. Djere’s been playing good ball, and losing to the top guys. It’s a good formula for early wins, and I hope he gets going in what is a very soft section of the draw. Djere in 3.
Medvedev vs Clay :
Facundo Bagnis may be about to spike a lot of people’s parlays. Every spring, Daniil Medvedev becomes the posterboy for disappearing. At any moment during a clay match, he’s likely to get upset at the conditions and just fold up. The best part of it is that he’s so freaking good at tennis, him folding up doesn’t even work. While moping and gesturing at the ground and talking to his box nonstop, he managed to go up a break against Gasquet who was redlining his own game. Luckily, he was broken back and lost a tiebreaker, but it was almost a disaster. I don’t know if Medvedev can lose to Bagnis, but Bagnis just doesn’t do enough with the ball to hit through Med. I’d love to say I know Medvedev will do the work, but he seems resolute in his complaining and Bagnis will at the very least keep him out there for a while. It’s hard to tell if Medvedev even wants to play; there are some games people just don’t enjoy and it’s almost like the guy has free will and intelligence or something. Medvedev in 4 or a lot of angry comments in the stream chats.