2021 US Open WTA Round One Predictions

Really interesting draw on the WTA side, and the tournament (despite Barty seeming to be a frontrunner) is as wide-open as a major has ever been. It’s still not too late to hop in our bracket contests for the US Open, so check them out in the Competitions section.

Barty vs Zvonareva :

If feels like Barty comes into every tournament as the favorite, but her play in Cincinnati was pretty comprehensive. I didn’t realize she was only 25 when watching her the past few seasons, and the thought that she might actually be getting better still is a scary one for the rest of the tour. She’s a physical force, but she wins behind a great deal of racquet skill and placement, so the tour will have a hard time catching up if she levels up. For now, this is a somewhat safe opener. Zvonareva can play great baseline tennis, but hasn’t for a while. She’s definitely had some bright points in her return after having a baby but it seems like this is the second half of her career and that makes this a big ask. Barty in 2.

Burel vs Tauson :

Insert Spiderman pointing at Spiderman meme. I’m not sure how they managed to have the two Claras playing each other, but hopefully Burel is up for the challenge. Tauson is the more hyped junior standout, and is coming off a 100k title win in Chicago. While Tauson has received more press, Burel has quietly scored wins against a lot of good tour talent including Rakhimova, Garcia, Gracheva, and Ferro. Tauson takes a more offensive approach to the game, with a pretty big serve for a junior and big groundstrokes. Burel is a more defensive-minded player, and has a shot selection a bit similar to Ann Li and Cornet where her court position isn’t perfect but she hits with good length and to whichever wing makes her opponent run more. This won’t be a straightforward match, but Burel withdrew from her last match tied at 1 set apiece with Svitolina, so there’s a possibility she’s not 100%. As a result, the -300 for Tauson seems about right. Burel can play at this level, but there are some question marks and she’s playing someone in good form who’s projected to have a higher ceiling. Tauson in 2.

Rogers vs Brengle :

Shelbyyyyyyy! I can’t help loving the name, and Rogers should have a good chance to win here. Madison Brengle notches wins when it seems like she’s in terrible spots, and has a way of playing the Paolo Lorenzi role and making every rally sticky. Rogers limitations are her mobility though, and there are also some struggles against players who can keep their slice low since she takes a big slowish yet booming swing. It reminds me of a less pronounced Madison Keys motion on the forehand side. Brengle isn’t really a slicer, and her straightforward ball should give Rogers’ edge in power a good chance to get her through. Players from the same country often exchange wild results because players in a smaller player pool tend to be more comfortable with the moment when they’re playing someone familiar, and also the “I’m secretly better than them but don’t take it as seriously” motivation is a real phenomenon in local events, but Rogers should win here. Rogers in 2.

Cirstea vs Kudermetova :

Kudermetova is one of the tours best fake-tests. If you can’t produce the big offense you go for, you can never beat her. Her movement is solid, she doesn’t make many errors in rallies, and despite her small frame she can hit winners when she finally gains control. Her approach is a bit more conservative than you might want, but it works for her. She hasn’t had a dominating performance in her last month, but the draws aren’t always easy. Cirstea is having the best year of her career, and as much as I’d like to see her play someone easier, this is an intriguing matchup. Cirstea seems a bit better on clay, but her power should give her a chance here. What sticks in my mind is a match against Voundrousova where Cirstea struggled against a player bringing back the extra ball. Kudermetova will be doing exactly that, so Cirstea advancing here will require her to play some near-perfect tennis. She’s capable of doing that, but hasn’t been on fire in the past few weeks. Kudermetova in 3.

Muchova vs Sorribes Tormo :

Oof. These are tough maaaatchesssssss. When I started writing these the ATP had such smaller skillgaps (outside the big 3) and the WTA often had matches which were fairly obvious blowouts. The women’s tour has just had a tremendous influx of talent though and the existing tour members have also all made great improvements. The power vacuum left by Serena and Halep really lent itself to players believing and the 2/3 structure means more “wild” results at majors. This may seem like it removes credibility or luster from the title, but the opposite happens. The players who do get far at those events gain confidence and this improves the overall level of the tour, and the lower tier players are likely to compete even harder since they see what’s possible.

Anyway, Muchova is one of those players who has leveled up. She was always a fairly expensive price in the bookmakers markets, but didn’t often get to the second half of tournaments. She has easy power, situational freedom as far as shot selection, and a sort of Murray-like innate ability to put the extra ball back in key moments. Simply put, she’s a baller. Tormo is somehow the same thing, but in a very different way. Tormo has been on the tour for quite some time and was always half a clay specialist. She really is the definition of a pusher and this made me hesitant to enjoy her matches. I recall a match against Mertens where Tormo was never going to win, but the match still lasted something like 3 hours. I didn’t care for the late grunts on her shots, and as a new tennis fan I didn’t see the value in someone just trying to outlast their opponent. I was dumb though, and often it is nice to realize how dumb you were previously, while realizing that soon you will also realize how dumb you are now <3. Watching someone be absolutely trapped by an opponent in lockdown mode is one of the most interesting things on tour. If you have a favorite in the match it might be difficult, but watching Tormo’s finals run in Monterrey and subsequent quarterfinals run in Miami was a ton of fun. She never goes for anything crazy, and seems almost like she’s working out when she plays. It’s like watching a player do drills for 3 hours and just remain expressionless.

Muchova has been less than stellar lately, and Tormo played well last week, so this is expected to be a close match. The hot/humid conditions in NYC also lend themselves to Tormo being competitive. My problem with announcing her as the winner though is that she has lost to most of the bigger offensive talents she’s faced. Muchova has a nice combination of power and consistency and tends to win rallies without taking huge chances. Tormo is likely to play most of this from behind the baseline, and while she may frustrate Muchova, she struggles to hold her own serve at times. I think Karolina (who can be spotted secretly eating small cookies during changeovers) wins this one in 3.

Hsieh vs Liu :

Claire Liu seemed like she wouldn’t find much relevance on tour a few seasons ago. She has a pretty ABC game, but makes great decisions and works hard on court. A good run in Chicago sees her near her peak form heading into this, and that gives her a chance against Hsieh who is one of the most talented players on tour, but one of the most inconsistent. I wouldn’t say her skill or shots are inconsistent, but it seems like some days her motivation is much higher and she seems to love being out there, while on others it appears like tennis is a job. Here she’ll have ample chances to win rallies, but ample chances to lose sets if she forces the issue. She should win,but form is verrrrry important in professional tennis so Liu has a shot. Hsieh in 3.

Baptiste vs Zhang :

Has Baptiste been playing enough tennis to win this? Her game is huge, and her forehand is powerful, but she doesn’t seem to be that active. I would venture that this inactivity will be a problem against Zhang, who played something like 4 matches last week and played well. Zhang’s game is a bit like Qiang Wang’s but with a bit less power and consistency to the offensive offerings. In a first round that should see a lot of long matches, this could be one. Baptiste has all the tools to be a top 50 player, but it seems like she’s not the final product she will be yet. Zhang in 3.

Raducanu vs Brady :

Raducanu seems like a star. She has backed up her play at Wimbledon with some really solid matchwins, and seems willing to play lower tier events as well to continue her progress. Coming through qualifying here is the right way to do things and she gets rewarded with a tough but winnable first round. Jennifer Brady is a top ten player who can’t quite decide what her game looks like. The big swings and power are tremendous, but whether to go big or conservative on her serve leaves her a bit inconsistent. Her forehand is one of the best on tour and gets an absurd amount of spin and shape, but she’s willing to pull the trigger from some less than stellar positions and tends to make errors on big points. Her backhand and movement are top notch, but she seems willing at times to play possum and look to counterpunch which is a tough formula to win with. I would say that the only thing lacking from Jenn Brady to win a major (even this major) is a bit of focus. The question in this match is whether she’ll wake up when Raducanu begins pulling away.

Raducanu hasn’t beaten the huge names yet, but she’s been more active and her final qualifying round was very good. Mayar Sherif plays a bit like a less skilled Tormo, and she makes you basically beat her. Raducanu had zero problem with that. She hits big and keeps the ball in the court. She has smaller weapons her than Brady but Brady’s isolated spurts of offense may not be enough. Scary to overhype a young player (these kind of expectations can often make a bright career feel like a shortcoming) but I think Raducanu can win this. Raducanu in 3.

Bencic vs Rus :

Belinda Bencic seems to have woken up and is playing the kind of tennis that they were sure she could 4 years ago. The spotlight sort of left her for a while, and that’s when she thrived. Fast courts are ideal for her and the USO should see her with a good run. Rus is much better on clay and hasn’t had a good year. Bencic’s hyperaggressive style can see her lose quickly, but this would be a very surprising upset. Bencic in 2.

Trevisan vs Vandeweghe :

Trevisan reads little books of zen poems during changeovers. Vandeweghe jokes with the crowd and smashes racquets. It’s a very contrasting style. Trevisan, despite being one of my favorite players, has struggled to win matches on hardcourt. She plays a traditional lefty style but doesn’t hit with a great deal of power. Her hustle is her main attribute and she tends to outlast players. A good forehand down the line is her main offense but she tends to not pull the trigger on this very often. This will let Vandeweghe have a lot of chances, and despite her return to the tour being lackluster, she has managed to win a set in most of her losses. I get that I’m supposed to be the analyst, but this is a question of whether Vandeweghe keeps the ball in the court. She has the power and experience to win this match, but hasn’t played a complete match well in over two seasons. Trevisan in 3.

Doi vs Sanders :

Misaki Doi finally gets to avoid Osaka in an early round : ) Unfortunately, she’s playing one of the best additions to the tour. Storm Sanders not only has a super cool name, she’s also lefty and extremely capable of winning here. Her wins on tour have come on smaller stages mostly, but in the 50-100 range she’s an even prospect against anyone. She’ll have more power here, and given Doi’s lack of power she’ll have a decent chance to extend rallies. The danger here will be the situation; a win here would be huge for Sanders and that thought may pop up when she gets her chances. Doi is fast and tends to keep her level very solid which means lapses give her an edge. Having to break back against a consistent player feels like something you can will to happen, but when it doesn’t your game can implode. If Sanders falls into the trap of trying to supply all the offense she’ll lose this match. I would expect her to have a team that will note this though, and will advise her to try to use several shots to end rallies rather than just battering away at Doi. Sanders in 3.

Potapova vs Pegula :

Potapova gets a lot of respect from bookmakers at times but I don’t understand it. Her game is solid and she hits hard but she doesn’t win a lot of matches. Pegula is on another level here, and played well in the month leading up to this event. Also her father owns buffalos. Pegula in 2.

Kontaveit vs Stosur :

Kontaveit looked great last week, and Stosur is a classy player but a bit past her prime. Kontaveit in 2, but I highly recommend watching some old matches of prime Stosur.

Bucsa vs Teichmann :

Bucsa was down a break when I stopped watching against Dodin, but she won in straight sets. Her game is very solid but she wins most of her points from the baseline. This doesn’t make her much different from anyone else on tour, but earning it the hard way makes her a pretty big underdog against Teichmann. Teichmann’s run in Cincinnati was tremendous and it isn’t her first great performance either. She tends to play well for a few weeks at a time, and being an extremely fast lefty makes her a tough puzzle for Bucsa to solve. If she can get close, or if Teichmann has a sort of mental hangover from winning, she might get near a set win, but I think Teichmann will have a hard time losing this. Teichmann in 2.

Ferro vs Hibino :

Fiona Ferro is a bit confusing to me. I had similar issues with Swiatek early in her career. She seems to be able to win a set 6-1 and look completely dominant, and then revert to barely being able to hit two shots in the court in a row. Sometimes this means the player needs more physical training, so it’s an offseason correction. Sometimes it’s just an overly ambitious shot selection, which only materializes at times because the player is throwing so many darts that some must hit the bullseye. It confuses me further that just when I write her off on hardcourt (she’s much better on clay in terms of results), she wins a big match. I never expected her to beat Golubic, but now I am hopeful. Ferro’s game is top ten tier stuff, and her compact backhand is so very sneaky when she takes it on a short angle or down the line. She gets a winnable and losable match here. Hibino is a consistent pusher on tour. She doesn’t have huge power, but she’s very fast and there is 0 quit. If Ferro has lapses, she’ll lose. If she remains steady, she’ll win 6-3, 6-2. I agree with the odds at -357 for Ferro. She’s a significant favorite, and Hibino is 0-4 in her last 4 hardcourt sets. Ferro in 2.

Loeb vs Swiatek :

Jamie Loeb served very well in qualifying, and it’s a great result for her. Swiatek in 2.

Pliskova Ka. vs McNally :

Karolina Pliskova has somehow stopped losing absurd early round matches. Her serving looks great and she’s threatened at a few big tournaments already. McNally is plucky but this is probably too big of an ask. Pliskova in 2.

Diyaz vs Anisimova :

This is Ferro vs Hibino #2. Anisimova has the game to compete against the best players on tour, but makes a ton of errors. Diyas lacks power and serving, but she works hard every single point and if she starts to find a rhythm she can run you into the ground with her counterpunching. Diyas beat her already this year, and there’s a decent chance she does it again as Anisimova just lose to tour hopeful Neimeier in her last outting.

Here’s where you see the books hedging exposure in a subtle way. Anisimova is a huge name for the general public, but sits at -240 for this match. Diyas is a relatively unknown player, and only people googling the H2H will see that Diyas beat her at this years Australian Open (most people are sadly not looking at this stuff, they are adding looking for names to add to parlays and name recognition is a terrible strategy on the WTA since the lack of big serves makes the margins of victory very thin). Anisimova is still a conceptual favorite, but the -240 is near the bottom of the range of her pricing structure (you won’t see her cheaper than -300 against most lower tier tour players when she’s playing well). It doesn’t mean you can just mash the Diyas lines and profit, but it’s a spot where the larger market is near the bottom of their pricerange which should make you somewhat wary if this is not in line with the expectation you approached the market with.

Diyas has the better month, and Anisimova is capable of winning this 1,2, but it would be a surprise. Diyas in threeyas.

Tomljanovic vs Volynets :

Ajla put together some good performances this year, so I like her against the wildcard here. Volynets is a collegiate player, so she’ll have a ton of match experience, but Tomljanovic will have a better quality of this. Tomljanovic in 2.

Galfi vs Martic :

Petra Martic must be getting sick of these draws. Martic has the sort of game that Kohlschreiber does. With time, she can create shape and angles that leave you on a string, and she doesn’t really miss once she gets you there. Against defensive players, she is a nightmare. The problem is that she needs time to create shots, and her movement is half a liability. Playing Galfi, who is one of the biggest and freest swingers to come out of qualifying, is not ideal. Martic is the better player, but they are in entirely different mental spaces right now. Galfi in 3.

Badosa vs Van Uytvanck :

Alison Van Uytvanck is such a fun player to watch, but this is a bad matchup. Badosa’s reach and defensive abilities will be able to negate AVU’s serving, and AVU is a swing for the fences type which never really fares well against the conservative Spanish style of tennis. Badosa in 2-3.

Gracheva vs Parrizas-Diaz :

I hate this but I love this. I hate this because Gracheva has been one of my darkhorse first round performers for a while in majors. She plays a very no-nonsense style and doesn’t really care what name she’s playing. I was hoping she’d get an easier draw and make a run, following her stellar play in Chicago. She should still win this, but Parrizas-Diaz is a player on the rise. She’s extremely quick and moves the ball well. It will take a ton of work for Gracheva to get through here and I would be surprised if this doesn’t go three sets.

I love this matchup because Parrizas-Diaz is an up and comer, and this is the perfect match for her to win if she really is just going to continue to rise. It’s a gut-check when you’ve been winning the winnable matches and find yourself up against someone else who’s also on fire. Gracheva’s run in Chicago is against huge names though including Kostyuk, so I’d expect her to have a slight edge in confidence here. Gracheva in 3.

Schmiedlova vs Krueger :

Schmeidlova had her hands full in qualifying against Brantmeier, who looks like she’s been playing tennis for the past forty years. Her forehand is extremely powerful, and she looks very comfortable on the court. I was confused on how she didn’t seize the opportunities as she really was outplaying Schmeidlova, but I later learned that she’s only 16 years old. Crazy bright future for her, but it is tough to win against an adult as a child and the moment must have been tough. For now, A.K. is safe and moves on to play Ashlyn Krueger, so in a tournament with “fair seeding processes” we have Clara vs Clara and AK vs AK. Neat. Krueger is ranked 647 and is a wildcard which makes me feel like she’s going to have a few more years to go before she can win this. Schmeidlova in 2.

Riske vs Pavlyuchenkova :

Alison Riske’s swings make me doubt her at times, and Pavs vacation after the amazing run at the French is probably over. Pavlyuchenkova in 2, but Riske is the type of player to randomly play 3-4 amazing matches so if she does well here watch for her in the next round/next tournament.

Kvitova vs Hercog :

Kvitova is just a bit too offensively talented for Hercog to beat here. Kvitova in 2.

Kovinic vs Pliskova Kr. :

Krystina Pliskova must feel so good to finally have some match wins under her belt. She was rivaling Paire/Basilashvili for a while with the loss stretch but she played well in qualifying, and now gets an interesting matchup. Kovinic was on fire early in the season but suffered a leg injury. She’s only returned recently and hasn’t won too many matches. Since her mobility isn’t 100% yet, a big server like Pliskova has a good shot. Kovinic is better if they both peak, but you sort of have to wait until players prove they are back. Pliskova in 3.

Sevastova vs Siniakova :

Siniakova has been better all season, but Sevastova is just that player who you can’t write off. This should be one of the best matches of the first round, but I’d give a slight edge to Siniakova at the beginning. I admittedly have trauma from backing players against Sevastova and then watching her create sharp angle after sharp angle, and Siniakova tends to make more errors when she’s on the run, but Sevastova withdrew from her last match, and Siniakova played great last week, so there’s hope. Sevastova did win their last meeting, but two seasons have passed. Siniakova in 3.

Kostyuk vs Sakkari :

I might climb inside the popcorn machine for this one and just chew my way towards the tv. Marta Kostyuk is like a combination of Andreescu’s power and attitude with Anisimova’s patience. The result is nonstop offense and big serves. These are the things that Sakkari was built to negate though, and that makes this the best matchup of the first round. Kostyuk losing to Gracheva means Sakkari’s consistency might be a bit too much, but a fresh week is a fresh chance to swing for the fences, so this should have some fireworks. Sakkari’s been in half a slump considering her lofty standards, but the challenging physical conditions will really benefit her fitness if she makes a run here so I’ll be pulling for her and also I like how her head is shaped like a lego. Sakkari in 3.

Podoroska vs Ostapenko :

“Please beat this grumpy little muppet!” is the type of thing that my inner-hater likes to say. Ostapenko is fun to cheer for and fun to cheer against. She’s a very fairweather friend to the umpire on the court and I suppose this is the result. Podoroska is a claycourt specialist that I keep hoping will win on hardcourt. It hasn’t happened yet. I will continue to poke her with a stick though and believe that it will come someday. Ostapenko’s conditioning is often an issue and the hot conditions in NYC are responsible for about 80% of spikes in crime. Simply put, if you toast people they start to lash out. As a result, Podoroska’s main job here is to keep the ball in the court and hope. Ostapenko’s game is a bit too big for her to really counterpunch her way to victory, but she may outlast her. Optimistically, Podoroska in 3. Realistically, Ostapenko in 2.

Boulter vs Samsonova :

Middling. That’s the way I’d describe both of these players performances thus far. Boulter has played her best in the hardest matches, but lost some simpler ones that she needs to get on tour. Samsonova has absolutely smoked some people, but then lost matches where she was a heavy favorite. Tennis is hard, and this is a good spot for both of them to get some momentum. Boulter’s fluid game should give her ample chances to earn errors, but Samsonova’s power is a huge weapon here. It’s ability vs form as Samsonova is coming off a handful of losses and Boulter is coming off 3 wins (thought they were in qualifying). Samsonova should win this in 3.

Davis vs Tomova :

Lauren Davis always makes a good match of things, and Tomova isn’t dominant enough to really win this in straights. Tomova in 3.

Golubic vs Andreescu :

Runner up for match of the first round. Golubic has come out of the doldrums of lopsided third set losses to establish herself this year as one of the 20-30 ranked pros in terms of ability. Her one-handed backhand is one of the only ones on tour, but if you add 15 more it still would be the best. Andreescu is the big name and we’re all waiting for her to find her best form after a number of injuries, but it hasn’t come yet which makes this an even affair. Oddsmakers sit this at -210 for Andreescu, but really this is about expected investment. As long as books balance the $ coming in on each side, they happily pass customer bucks back and forth and take their fees. Andreescu is always going to draw more investment than Golubic, so her side will be pushed slightly higher. The reason it’s hard to back Golubic here is that she’s had a run of losses and is at her best on indoor courts. In that sense, the line does somewhat line up with an expected outcome. Andreescu’s B game is better than Golubic’s B game. If either player finds their best here, they’ll win going away. If not, it’ll be a breakfest and I’m here for it. Andreescu in 3.

Svitolina vs Marino :

Svitolina played great last week and picked up a much-needed title. People may criticize her for playing the week before a major but the longer you are on tour the more willing you are to try anything in order to win. It may work out for her, even if this is a tricky start. Rebecca Marino hasn’t really won matches on tour in a long time, but she served incredibly well in qualifying. There aren’t many players who hit their second shot harder than Marino, and the question here is whether she can land first serves. She won’t be able to hang in long baseline rallies with Svitolina, and it will take energy away from her legs which will hurt her serves. Her best chance is to get off to an early start (Svitolina can certainly play a few loose games as she heatchecks herself to see if her offense is firing), and then tank for a third set and hope. It’s a longshot, but she should be happy with her progress in qualifying. Svitolina in two.

Masarova vs Bogdan :

Masarova played a really great match with Jacqueline Cristian in the final round of qualifying. She’s very consistent and has good power. Bogdan’s resurgence is still looking good though, and she should be able to have a pretty solid edge here throughout just in terms of generating offense. Bogdan in 2-3.

Vondrousova vs Ruse :

I get that they’re compatriots and Voundrousova made a great run at the Olympics, but I don’t agree with the -400 price here for Marketa. It makes sense from an investment standpoint (nobody knows who Ruse is), but Ruse is a really hot commodity right now. I expect this to be close, though Ruse’s wins have come mostly on clay and Voundrousova is a huge step up. Tentatively, I think this could go to three sets. I’ll give the nod to Voudrousova, but I think Ruse is likely to continue to make inroads onto the tour. Voudrousova in 3.

Pironkova vs Kasatkina :

Two seasons ago Pironkova would have won this match easily, but it feels like something has changed about her. It could simply be that the tour has solved her shot patterns. One of the things I expect coaching teams do is break down opponent tendencies, and this is why I think we see so many players gesturing wildly at their box after their opponent serves and ace or a winner. Going in favoring one thing makes sense, and Pironkova is really only dangerous on her backhand. She’s like an intelligent version of Benoit Paire. She hasn’t played since Wimbledon though, so this might be more about the check than about a significant commitment to winning the US Open. Kasatkina has been good lately. Darya in 2.

Rybakina vs Sasnovich :

Rybakina is supposed to win this match every time, but Sasnovich will steal a set along the way if there are lapses. It is two offensive players so a shootout makes sense, but Rybakina does it all with power and Sasnovich struggles against specifically that. Rybakina in 2.

Garcia vs Dart :

Harriet Dart can win this match, but Garcia is one of those players I can’t get a read on. Sometimes she hits forehand and backhands 5 feet past the baseline until the match is over, sometimes she randomly serves excellent and hits clean winners. Dart will be there with her consistent and almost pushy baselining, but Garcia should win this in 3.

Li vs Kucova :

Kucova is a tough out, but Ann Li is one of the best offensive talents to come out of the USTA in a long time. She isn’t a huge hitter or a server, but she’s able to locate her groundstrokes extremely well and moves to net nonstop. Li in 2.

Halep vs Giorgi :

There is no way Giorgi can beat Halep, but this is not quite Halep. She’s returning from injury issues and is expected to be rusty. Giorgi also has been playing consistent tennis for a month and a half now. Giorgi in 2.

Kerber vs Yastremska :

Yastremska’s return has shown hints of promise, but she’s not there yet. If she were, I’d like her against Kerber of last season. This new Kerber seems to have a renewed passion for the sport though, and winning seems like an addiction for Angelique. Kerber in 2.

Sherif vs Kalinina :

I shouldn’t just blindly pick against Sherif, but her game is very defensive. I really feel like she’ll lose to most players on tour. On the other hand, Kalinina’s game is promising but not quite there yet. This is a great spot for both. Someone in 3 (slight lean towards Kalinina).

Keys vs Stephens :

Haha. This is convenient, although Tennis Channel announcers will likely pretend it is tragic while pre-empting Medvedev vs Rublev matches to show you Shelby Rogers first round coverage. Keys and Stephens are two players that crash out of first rounds pretty often, so this is helpful for one of them and since they’re both actually incredibly good, it’ll be a good training match. I won’t pick a winner here, but I am excited for Gauff to play the winner. I think Keys beating Gauff would produce shockwaves, but I think Stephens is better suited to deal with the grinding style Coco can play. Either way I like Gauffburg, but I’ll say Stephens has had a much better year. The problem for Stephens in beating Keys is that she gets a bit passive and is content to just be in the rally, and Keys thrives with time. Stephens in 2 based on their recent play, which I suppose is what I’m supposed to be basing things on, rather than getting excited about who Gauff gets to beat.

Linette vs Gauff :

Linette has been on a tear. She’s a great server and can win this match, but it’s a bad time to be playing Gauff. She’s at home, she’s had a bunch of match wins on hardcourt, and this is a great draw for her. Linette tends to play half her sets well, so this could wind up in a third, but Gauff has a physical edge here and can likely defend against Linette’s serve enough to earn errors. Gauff in 2.

Putintseva vs Kanepi :

Kanepi hasn’t been very active, and Putintseva hasn’t won many matches at all. Not sure what to expect here, except Konjuh to thump the winner.

Fernandez vs Konjuh :

Fernandez won a title this year, so it’s odd that I’m wondering when she’ll make the jump to the next tier. She’s already there. Unfortunately, she is a tiny nugget, so it’s hard for her to win all the time even though she’s ridiculously good at tennis. Konjuh should have a good edge in power and her movement is good enough to deal with Fernandez’ style of carefully shaped offense. Konjuh in 3.

Parks vs Danilovic :

Alycia Parks is really good. I’ve had the chance to watch her play a few times and it always seems like with the right coach (not her dad) and some experience playing in smaller events (not in the US) that she could make her way onto the tour. The problem for her is there is a relative unwillingness to compete when it becomes obvious she’s going to lose. At the current moment, she has 90% of 1 full set of tour level tennis in her. Danilovic is the polar opposite. Danilovic will make errors early in a match, but digs in and genuinely finds a scary range on her forehand. Being lefty is a huge advantage, and I’d expect her to win this, and Parks to find her way on tour if she leaves the USTA. Danilovic in 2.

Bouzkova vs Osaka :

Tricky opener for Osaka. I am actually unprepared to talk about Osaka even though I’ve discussed it with some people asking for advice about futures this week. Futures are lines to predict the outright winner of the tournament. Osaka is always a popular one, and given her recent slump and media issues she’s more generously priced than she usually is. I don’t think she’s primed for a great performance here though. NYC is a very hectic city, and she hasn’t been playing a lot of tennis. The debate, though people are hesitant to say it, is whether her anxiety issues are real or an excuse. I would offer that this question is not our business, nor does it matter. Whether or not someone diagnoses themselves with anxiety, they are likely to experience it. Anxiety is mostly a matter based in thought, but there are real temporary physical effects that come along with it. The mind races, the “what if” game begins to play, and we live (in our minds) in a number of problematic issues in the future. If we consider going into a party we’ve been invited to, two thoughts later we’ve committed a major error and are in an argument. If we are at a party and no one is talking to us, we begin thinking people don’t really like us and don’t want us there. Whatever the “what if” situation, whatever the thoughts of self or situation that arises the anxiety, the body prepares. It’s a leftover remnant from our days living in the forest. We could hear a branch break at night and freeze. The mind would think of potential predators or bad situations to avoid. The body releases adrenaline to prepare for the fight/flight response, and you hold your breath to avoid giving away your position. All this is useful in the situation where a bear is trying to eat you, but in modern day situations, these things are not helpful. The adrenaline makes us jittery, holding your breath makes your mind and heart race (not to mention you tense up in order to hold your breath which is uncomfortable), and we tend to take these physically uncomfortable sensations as a confirmation of the fears we have in our mind. The result is you are in a circle, with each thought confirming each physical response and each physical response confirming each fear. There is no real problem, but that does not make you less prone to shivering or feeling scared. It is a natural response, and there are paths out of it such as examining thought, but it doesn’t matter whether the problem is real or not. Osaka experiences it. That’s okay, and many people do also. Their issues may not seem legit to you, but that does not mean they don’t experience them, and that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t help. Further, since emotions are somewhat natural physical responses to thoughts, where we turn our attention matters. If you experience anxiety, it may be and is a singular occurence. If you experience it again, it is likely that you (considering yourself a collection of thoughts and experiences) will group these two uncomfortable situations together. In doing so, you began to craft a phantom log of problems, and in time it is likely that you develop a fear of this. Since anxiety is fear, you now have a fear of fear. In life many things are circular, and noticing the circles that you are stuck in (through habit; not any fault of your own) is important to changing them. Creating a diagnosis based on frequent experience doesn’t mean you are permanently bound to that experience, but it certainly does lend itself to more frequent occurrences of it, and to you also being on the lookout for these things.

So that’s all a bit psychoanalytical and not what you’re really here for, but the point is, Osaka is likely to have a difficult time at the US Open. Adrenaline dumps are exhausting and are the reason many promising players get in a big situation and play frantic for 3 games and then appear exhausted. Nerves during a match lead to thinking, and thinking about things other than the current point/flow of the match while you’re on the court really doubles the difficulty. Adding crowds after having no crowds, the media being told to ask questions about Osaka’s anxiety, the monumental expectations, and the flow of constant hate from people on the internet with some logic but no perspective has to be exhausting. Add in that Osaka is a kid. She’s in her early 20s and has lived the super protected and promoted tennis phenom lifestyle. It doesn’t make you some zen master nor does it afford you the time to really do some introspection about your life. Critics want her to have handled this better, but forget this is her first time handling this. This experience (her media issues, her difficulties with anxiety, and this slump) is temporary, and she needs the right people around her to understand that and remind her, the press, and the fans of that.

Bouzkova is real good, and Danilovic in the next round will be tough. This will be an uphill battle, but I hope Osaka wins simply because sport is often an escape from our troubles. Being reminded of that may allow her to focus on the tennis and leave the other stuff behind. As an analyst, I think it may be too far uphill, and as a turtle, I think she should chase some small fish and dig in the mud for bugs and stuff. Osaka should get through, but it might take 3 and I would not be surprised if such an offensive talent has some ringrust that lets a defensive specialist like Bouzkova sneak by.

Krejcikova vs Sharma :

If you hand Astra Sharma a coloring book right now, there’s no chance she’s following the instructions. She has one of the coolest games on tour, but she is not interested in your petty lines or your structured limitations like “land your first serve in” or “hit your backhand over the net” or “the court is shorter than you think”. You won’t see a player miss more shots but still win, and it’s a hint to how good she could be if she gets it together. I would venture that peak Sharma (we might see it in 2-3 years) would beat Krejcikova, but there is not much chance it happens today. Barbora is one of the most consistent players on tour and has the freedom of the grand slam title to allow her to play any shot she feels like. The backhand to backhand exchanges will be too much for Sharma. Krejcikova in 2.

Navarro vs McHale :

Hooray! I am a big Emma Navarro fan. She defends well and hits the ball very solid. Reminds me a bit of early Pegula without the serve. This is winnable against McHale but it would be her first big tour win. McHale is also very consistent and in need of a win here. Mchale in 3 is the most likely outcome, but Navarro has a legit shot here.

Alexandrova vs Errani :

Errani still winning matches on tour is super impressive considering it’s been 10 years since she was at the top of her game. Alexandrova will have too much power here, but will need to avoid errors since Errani will slice and retrieve til the end of time. Alexandrova in 2.

Martincova vs Azarenka :

I guess we’re on board with Azarenka winning easily here, but Martincova is a tough opponent. Her backhand isn’t great, but her serve and forehand combo are enough to wear down most opponents. Azarenka should be able to dominate with her variety and defending, but Azarenka has thrown in some odd losses. Azarenka in 2.

Svedova vs Paolini :

Paolini in 2. Shvedova’s return to the tour is fun, but she’s not quite there yet.

Begu vs Petkovic :

Petkovic, despite being wildly inconsistent from point to point, is a really tough out. She plays like a less skilled Muguruza, but the fact that she goes for idealistic shots and is willing to pull the trigger means she can hurt you in points that you frantically want to win. Begu’s previous week was solid, and I’m not sure that Petkovic can come out of nowhere and slow her down. It’ll be an offensive battle, and Petkovic’s movement might be better. The play last week though should be a key. Begu in 2.

Muguruza vs Vekic :

Vekic is getting some really tough draws. Gone are the days of Muguruza’s near perfect play that she started the season with, but she’s still one of the better players on tour. Vekic losing to Paolini last week doesn’t inspire hope. Muguruza in 2.

Mertens vs Peterson :

This is tough because Peterson’s been playing well, but Mertens is my favorite. I don’t think it will be a quick match, but Mertens doesn’t really have a hole in her game for Peterson’s consistent offering to exploit. Mertens in 3.

Blinkova vs Grammatikopoulou :

The best thing about this tournament is that it has a player in the men’s and women’s draw who I’ve never watched. Grammatikopoulou should do well based off her qualifying run, but she’s never really beaten too many tour-level players, and Blinkova will be desperate to get a win. I’ll take the qualifier in 3, but it’ll be my first time watching her.

Osorio Serrano vs Jorovic :

Osorio Serrano in 2. Jorovic isn’t sharp yet.

Jabeur vs Cornet :

Cornet’s play last week was refreshing, but it reminds me of Gasquet’s resurgence. Great to see, but then he gets handed to Medvedev. Jabeur is an offensive talent that actually has the shots and power to take apart Cornet. Jabeur in 3.

Suarez Navarro vs Collins :

Idk about this one. Navarro has played some very solid tennis since her return and is likely to get stronger as she gets more matches in. Collins is a solid baseliner but seems a bit too aggressive at times. Her temper hurts her also as it inspires hope in her opponents. Collins also withdrew from her last match. There’s no reason she should lose but she shouldn’t have lost any of the matches she’s been losing in the past month either. Suarez Navarro in 3.

Watson vs Juvan :

Big offense vs consistency. Watson’s serving should fare well this week but Juvan has simpler ways to score. Juvan in 2.

Pera vs Zidansek :

Zidansek seems like her game won’t transfer to hardcourt anytime soon, so this is a good spot for Pera. Pera in 2.

Stojanovic vs Sabalenka :

Stojanovic won’t make this easy, but Sabalenka is probably the #2 favorite to win this event in my book. Sabalenka in 2 close sets.