2021 US Open ATP Round One Predictions

Tennisssssssssss. The US Open is here and there is a ton of wonderful drama and mischief and even some Gulbis. I apologize for missing Wimbledon I was moving/doing some monk shit but I’m back connected to the internets now : ). The WTA will go up tomorrow afternoon and as usual, come check out the bracket contests DC hosts and come try to beat me in the odds competiton (j/k pls let me win 🐢)

ATP Bracket Contest WTA Bracket Contest Odds Comp

Djokovic vs Rune :

Holger Rune has had a pretty good venture onto the ATP tour this season. He’s had a number of wildcards thrown his way, and despite being mostly a claycourt talent he’s come through qualifying at the USO. This qualifier field was a bit weaker than most years, but has a lot of promising juniors. Rune is one of them. From what I’ve seen, he hits very big, but isn’t the most stable defensively. I would expect a similar result here as when Djokovic played Jack Draper. Rune will likely play his best tennis early in the match, but the adrenaline surge will cost him the ability to really compete later on. Djokovic is the clear favorite to win this tournament, and there is some speculation as to why he didn’t play any leadup events. For me, the prospect of the calendar grand slam (all 4 majors won in 1 year) is too important to pass up, so I expected him to shut everything down after the Olympics. There is some rumor of him nursing an injury, but it feels like he always has something minor that he overcomes. I like his chances in this tournament, and might even go as far as cheering for him. Djokovic in 3.

Griekspoor vs Struff :

The biggest story here is that Tallon Griekspoor’s ranking is finally high enough to get entry into a major. A weaker field helps, but that’s a good feeling and a nice paycheck. This is a winnable match but one I don’t expect him to. In the past, Griekspoor (who has good power on his serve and groundstrokes) has played one perfect set of tennis in uphill situations, then sort of lost the plot. He’s played mostly clay, and this may be a short trip despite Struff’s recent struggles. Struff has lost 4 of his last 5 matches, but these are losses against Djokovic, Fognini, Koepfer, and most recently Ivashka. If it were a Goffin-like slump you wouldn’t expect him to really be winning sets, but he’s had a few three setters recently and did beat Gianluca Mager in straights. Mager has a bigger game than Griekspoor, but worse movement. Struff will have a bigger serve, and a great deal more comfort, so it’ll really come down to whether he makes errors.

At -385 +286 the price is about right (although the absurd gap in the middle of these two numbers is the main reason you don’t want to bet sports). Struff is likely to win this match most of the time so the books make him more expensive to take, but the match is by no means a gimme due to Struff’s minor struggles and Griekspoor being near the peak of his career thus far. Like most tennis matches, this is a spot where you may agree with the odds, but neither player is really worth backing based on form entering the match. Struff in 4.

Caruso vs Nishikori :

Some of these matches are exciting, but some seem straightforward. Caruso is a fine player but something is wrong with his forehand. Simple rally balls are finding the net, and these kind of errors give you little to no chance of winning against a player like Kei who is focused specifically on not giving an inch during baseline exchanges. Watching Caruso has been like watching a great golfer struggle with nerves. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that he finds range here, but it would be a significant outlier based on his season so far. Nishikori in 3.

McDonald vs Goffin :

I saw a mention of this as an exciting first round. I’m a bit confused as neither player is likely to factor, and Goffin has barely been relevant on tour since his eye-injury and subsequent struggles with fatigue after having COVID. At the risk of sounding like a hater, McDonald isn’t that good. I say it begrudgingly though, because he has the ability to beat anyone on tour who isn’t making a full effort. Mackie’s season is his best ever, and it is great to see a nice dude notching wins against guys who just aren’t working as hard on that given day. It’s doubly impressive considering he made a big splash on tour initially (at the US Open) and then basically lost all momentum for a season and a half. This is a spot where McDonald should win, but he’ll pretty much be working with smaller weapons for most of his time on tour, so his peak form will always be necessary for him to win multiple rounds. Damn, I do sound like a hater. My friend actually went to the qualifiers one year, and Mackie’s family invited him into their players box and asked him to share his photos with them, so I’ll be cheering for McDonald even if I think this match is more about Goffin’s physical struggles more than McDonald’s ascension. Hmm. Still hating. Goffin in 5! No no. Sorry. McDonald in 3.

Karatsev vs Munar :

Something about the Australian Open seemed like a fairy tale, and I think we all wondered when Karatsev would come down to earth. We expected a slump, so when he began crushing worlds on clay and actually beat Djokovic, we were even more excited, and I think some of us started to think the slump would never come. It has made his losses since then harder to take, and even makes this match borderline scary. Munar is not really making a ton of progress on hardcourt. He plays a bit too deep, and though his conservative approach works on clay, he leaves players in rallies too long on hardcourt. His serve isn’t really much, so Karatsev should have ample chances in rallies, and chances to break even if he does struggle with his own errors. Karatsev in 3.

Thompson vs Mager :

Mager isn’t much on hardcourt, and basically needs to win behind his serve to have a chance. He’s a tall fellow and his movement is a moment behind the pace. The US Open courts are pretty quick and it is very hot and humid. Good conditions for a server, but conditions that lend themselves a bit more to a player like Thompson who is ready to play 3 hours of tennis. Thompson’s issue is often his serve. When he doesn’t land first serves, it becomes obvious how pedestrian his placement is. Thompson beat Mager earlier this year, and neither player has done much in recent weeks to show that they’ll be dominant here. I’d be wary of an upset simply because Mager has reliable weapons in his serve and forehand, but Thompson should outlast him again given the 3/5 format (he won their previous match in the third set). The odds are something like -270 +230, and that’s pretty much spot on for how the outcomes will line up if they play 100 matches in this situation. Prices are often more about the market sizes than the particular expected outcome, but Thompson is only slightly more well known than Mager, so this one looks about right, and the upset is possible enough that you wouldn’t really want to back either player. A good thing to consider when approaching a match is whether there are any results that would genuinely surprise you. If Mager serves well and Thompson is flat, this could be 7-6, 7-6, 7-5 for Gianluca. If Thompson is playing well, Mager will likely see a lot of pressure on his own serve, and could go down in 3 as the heat and uphill battle slowly defeat him. If they both play their best, it could easily be a shootout. Luckily, I don’t have to bet, I just have to talk about who has the cooler moustache, and it’s Thompson. Thompson in 4.

Brooksby vs Ymer :

This is unfortunate. Jenson Brooksby is a really solid baseliner, with a great service motion. He’s not a famous player just yet, but he might be the best player from the next group of American pros. He qualified in Roland Garros, and a wildcard here comes after some great results in Washington where he beat Tiafoe, FAA, and Millman. The problem is that Mikael Ymer is playing great in Winston-Salem, and is one of the best defenders you can find in the 80-100 ranks on tour. Books have this at -300 for Brooksby which is a pretty strong message that they expect Ymer to be burnt out after his run in Winston-Salem. I’m sure he won’t withdraw since the USO is a big check and he’s a supremely talented athlete, but Brooksby isn’t someone I’d consider a lock here so this line is a bit surprising. Home field advantage does see a bit more investment, but I’d expect something more like -180 +150 if Ymer were fatigued, because Brooksby’s heroics have been a relatively new commodity. It’s always a good idea to look at the draws/matchups before you look at prices, because then you head in with your own expectation, and can often find caution in an unexpected price.

Jenson’s game reminds me a tiny bit of a more powerful Ruusuvuori, and his ability from the baseline is good enough to play even with Ymer. Ymer struggles on serve after the first set or so, and Brooksby’s own offering is strong enough to beat a fatigued player. I’ll tentatively side with the weasels at the casinos on this one. Brooksby in 4-5.

Fritz vs De Minaur :

I don’t intend to make this entire writeup about odds, but this is another goofy one. De Minaur is ranked 24 spots ahead of Fritz, has had way better tour results than him for his entire career, and has won every single set of tennis they have played against each other. Yet the price is set at a pickem. With De Minaur stretch of losses, this could make sense, but Fritz is not a man unprepared. However bad your stretch of first round losses is, Taylor brings his own to the table. However lackluster your effort at a minor event, Fritz will raise the stakes and lose to a claycourter while rocking frosted tips in his hair. I am admittedly a Fritz hater, but it is not for lack of evidence on the part of the lanky fellow. I promise I’ll stop with the odds analysis, but this is another spot where the books are taking a clear position, yet there isn’t a slam dunk option. It is possible (probable) that the investment in Fritz on US soil is significantly larger than it is at any other point in the season. He has had some decent results on US hardcourt, and is a market inflated beyond his ability (the same as Tiafoe). That is one option. The second is that De Minaur’s slump is significant enough that the books are willing to risk exposure on his side if he is going to win. Casual bettors pick names they recognize, favorites that are priced at a number they want to risk, and a smaller subset just looks at H2H. De Minaur’s slump likely has name seeing not much $ flowing in, so despite his standard of getting -1000 pricetags in early rounds, the good times may be over. The third option, and this is the fun part for books, is that this is just going to a be a close match, and the books are happy to just pass one side’s money to the other (while harvesting their absurd fees).

As an avid hater, I’m not sure I can watch this match and accept that Fritz is going to win it. He’s having a better hardcourt season, but his work ethic and history don’t suggest him outcompeting Alex De Minaur. ADM’s slump though, is no joke. He really looks lost out there, and the emotional and physical fatigue of playing at the pace he does on tour has to be significant. He could be burnt out, and this could be another L. I’d avoid backing either player, but I would expect that Fritz will have a big edge on serve here and this is probably his best chance to win his first set against De Minaur. F-ri-t- ….. I can’t do it. De Minaur in 5.

Hurkacz vs Gerasimov :

Something’s been holding Gerasimov back from his usual offensive performances, and the result is a slump that sees him mostly winning 1/5 matches. Hurkacz is like a video game character who is a B+ in all attributes but an expert at none. His serve is great but he double faults. His baseline game is aggressive and powerful but he makes errors. His backhand is solid but he misses down the line too often. His movement is great, but it’s great for a big man. Gerasimov should be able to score on Hurkacz, but Hubert has proven himself to be a much more consistent performer this year. Hurkacz in 3-4.

Fucsovics vs Seppi :

This could be the smoothest most consistent baselining of the first round, but it’s going to be hard to watch the whole match. These two play very different styles as far as swings and the shots they employ, but it’s a very similar strategy in the end. Both are looking to probe weaknesses and extend the rallies for-friggin-ever, and they will likely both get what they want. Fucsovics has a whippy forehand and a slice backhand, and Seppi hits flat off both wings, but I would not be surprised if someone told me they had the same coaching team. Writing Seppi off is fun, but he has a way of turning it up in majors. Fucsovics has more power at this point, and is physically dominant in this matchup, so it’s really his to lose. There should be some close sets, but Fucs should win 3 of them. Fucsovics in 4.

Kudla vs Djere :

There are some pretty good matchups in this tournament. Kudla should win this. He’s been playing very well for the past few months, and the USO is his home tournament. Djere is a clay specialist, and genuinely has looked a bit lost this season. The problem for Kudla is that he doesn’t have a big weapon to just blow Djere off the court with, and Djere plays conservative from the baseline while hitting as big as he can. I would expect this to devolve into a slugfest at some point, with Kudla somewhat desperate to end points and multiple breaks of serve in each set. Kudla should have an edge, but he’s priced at -225 already so books are already vaguely trying to price you out of the market. Kudla in 5.

Sonego vs Otte :

This is a fun one. Oscar Otte is one of the betters servers who isn’t already on the tour. He does his best work on clay but his showing against Zverev should indicate that his serve/volley style translates well to hardcourt. Sonego will have more durability in rallies, but these two have very similar approaches to the game, and are looking to play offense right away. Coming through qualifying may hurt Otte a bit since he has a big frame, but two days of rest will help. Sonego is a clear favorite here but he has turned in some subpar performances and Otte is dangerous with a lead. Sonego in 4-5.

Fognini vs Pospisil :

The difference between Fognini and Pospisil is that Fognini has actually won matches on hardcourt this year. This match is set at a pickem because Pospisil has won the last 3 matchups, and because Fabio Fognini is a child. Children are unpredictable, and Pospisil is easily fatigued but his game tends to really annoy his more emotional opponents (watch any of Medvedev’s matches with him for proof). He gets to net often, he plays a bunch of foolish dropshots that Fognini is likely not to even want to run for. Another issue for Fabio is that the shirts he wears are entirely too tight. The humidity in NYC (I’m in the city and have been training outdoors for a while) will have players changing gear often, and Fognini will likely be unable to remove his shirt without the aid of a scissors. Now this is where the plot thickens. After an incident in which a jealous fan attempted to cut a piece of Fognini’s fancy moustache off, it was discovered that Fognini’s moustache is just eyeliner. In the humidity, this is likely to run unless it is the fancy one I saw a commercial for earlier where the girl dives in the pool and then rollerblades and then goes clubbing ALL WITH EYELINER INTACT!

Trying to decide what Fognini will do is like trying to stop the wind dressed as a kite. Pospisil has done just under zero this season, and Fognini has won some games. Their H2H discounts some of Fognini’s effort, but declaring a win for Pospisil here is based on nothing. Someone in 3.

Sandgren vs Ivashka :

Tennys Sandgren’s not playing well lately. Ivashka on the other hand is improving with every match. He has a very relaxed attitude about playing offense but he has made it his business to keep the ball in play. His forehand motion is perfect for this, and outlasting players and gradually working his way inside the baseline has made him one of the harder early rounds you can get. It reminds me a bit of when Millman was playing very well, but here Ivashka boasts a very solid serve and a much better backhand. With Ivashka still cooking in Winston-Salem, Sandgren will have a chance. He’s capable of playing some very gritty tennis himself and since he thrives when he has more time to set up, Ivashka’s conservative approach may have to change a bit. Sandgren’s serving can be as good as Ivashka’s, but we’re asking for Sandgren to play his best against a guy who’s still improving and is at his peak form. Fatigue makes this a risky spot to back Ivashka, but he should roll. Ivashka in 4.

Moutet vs Travaglia :

Not much fresh news here. Moutet is playing more matches and a slightly higher quality than Travaglia, who is either in a slump or has reverted to his original level. The hero of Melbourne has struggled to win matches recently, and his forehand heavy approach may just need a particular type of opponent to excel. Guistino played Moutet at the French Open a while ago and basically turned the match into a fh to bh exchange, and it worked, so there is hope for Travaglia. Moutet being more active makes him a slight favorite here, and books agree (listing him at -160). Travaglia will have a bigger serve and more power, but his backhand can be a real liability and Moutet’s variety (and him being a lefty) is likely to keep this from being winnable for Travaglia. On the flipside, Moutet has the temperament of a volcano and is prone to throwing away games while throwing tantrums. In the end, Moutet should win this in 4.

Chardy vs Berretini :

Since I know a lot of the readers on here are from r/tennis, I am aware that Berretini is a fan favorite. The handsome devil really is fun to watch, and normally I’d regale you with tales of the time Jeremy Chardy climbed the Alps with a penguin in his knapsack, or the time he won the Gran Prix on an old-timey bicycle, but his last two matches have been a struggle. He’s capable of beating anyone in a 2/3 structure, but Berretini should be able to get through here. Chardy’s wins also tend to come earlier in the season, when there’s less miles on his legs. I’m always scared of Chardy in a single set, but it’s hard to see him losing to Sandgren in straights and then beating Berretini. Berretini in 4.

Zverev vs Querrey :

After several seasons of calling Zverev a douche, I began to feel guilty. Saying positive things is a trend on reddit, and it’s not a bad one. So I said a few positive things. “Not so fast,” said Zverev, and proceeded to overshadow his final emergence as a threat to win majors with some extremely poor public statements regarding allegations of domestic violence on his part. Some people are saying to reserve judgement, and I will do so. Luckily though, this macho stick bug will still give us plenty of tennis fodder to cheer against him for, and plenty of quality tennis to secretly enjoy watching. He is a toolbox containing only half eaten cheerios, but he is probably capable of winning this event. The story this season for Zverev has been that his lackluster mental fortitude is being dragged along by his physical maturity. He is too much of a physical talent to lose, and the more he plays and gets comfortable on tour in late stages, the less the double faults manifest (and the less they really are a factor). He still starts extremely slow in majors, so he may drop the first set, but as things go on his base level is just a bit beyond what most lower tier opponents can muster.

Sam Querrey hasn’t done much recently, despite a few wins on grass. He’ll serve his usual quality stuff here, and give us a bit of hope in a set or two, but there’s no reason to believe he’s on his way to an upset. His career on tour has been great, and despite the COVID fiasco in Russia he’s regarded as a fun-loving and gentle guy. Where he does win the battle though, is in size of eyeballs. This is not the US Open of that though. Zverev in 4.

Ramos vs Pouille :

It is refreshing to see Pouille back on tour. Aggressive shotmaking, a really great kick on his T serve, and a pretty good attitude are what he brings, and these are the courts where he once beat Rafael Nadal. It makes sense for him to be a pickem here against Ramos since Ramos is a claycourt specialist, but Pouille’s return to this level has been as slow as Jack Sock’s. Pouille has lost most of his matches on the challenger level, and it doesn’t seem like he’s going to turn things around entirely. That makes this a very tough spot, since Ramos has done the exact opposite. He’s never turned in a poor season, and plays the same exact steady game no matter the surface or situation. This means he takes some disappointing losses by being too conservative, but it also means that he’s a tough test for a guy who wants to play big offense but can’t quite do so yet. Pouille’s errors and endurance against ARV’s consistency and ability to break down the backhand should make for a fun match, but it’s one I expect Ramos to win. ARV in 5.

Nishioka vs Sock :

Nishioka! This is another one that is set as a pickem, and it’s almost the same exact matchup as ARV vs Pouille. Nishioka is a hardcourt specialist though, and Sock’s offense seems to be approaching his old peak. Some decent challenger results and this being the first round mean fatigue shouldn’t enter into things for Sock, but the humid and hot weather in NYC are going to test everyone in the coming days. Sock’s backhand is not good enough to handle a lefty opponent, but the “almost the same” matchup aspect of this is that Sock has won the last three meetings between these two. I give Pouille a puncher’s chance, and Sock will have the same chance. Gauging Sock’s motivation level for the rest of his career is difficult though, especially since his career as Lance Bass left him financially secure. This is a good spot in the draw for either of these players, since Bublik is better than both but not fully engaged on court. At the risk of supporting an American player, Sock in 4.

Hanfmann vs Bublik :

This is a great servers battle for a first round match. Yannick Hanfmann has a big serve and gets to net well, but he’s mostly a clay specialist. A serve and volley player would be expected to thrive on the USO courts, but he’s really facing one of the best players to do this. Hanfmann is efficient at net, but Bublik’s skill will likely provide him an edge in those intangible net-scramble exchanges. Hanfmann would be more likely if he’d been playing, but since he hasn’t played a hardcourt event there’s even a chance that he’s not 100% for this and is just picking up a (well deserved) check. Bublik in 4.

Monfils vs Coria :

Just when you think the sad instagram posts and sigh-heavy press conferences are never going to end, Monfils starts winning. The post-marriage or birth bliss is a real phenomenon in sports, and a little perspective that life isn’t all about winning/losing or sport often results in players finding their second wind to compete and to play freely. It’s wild to consider that Monfils would need to feel free on court, considering his style of showboating and genuine play for the crowd rather than for the win, but that may be the case. When I see the mental fatigue of losing first round, and add in the frequent doubling over and limping and ankle checking, it makes some sense that the high expectations of the French tennis association were put upon Monfils wayyyy before he ever became established as an entertainer more than a #1. For his sake, I’m glad he’s with Svitolina and I’m glad he got some wins. He’ll get another one here if he shows up, as Coria is a wall on clay, but a 250 level wall. Hardcourt doesn’t help him, and similar to ARV he won’t deviate from the plan, but he’ll have to earn every point and Monfils won’t have a lot of offensive pressure applied to him. Monfils in 3.

Johnson vs Marterer : How Steve Johnson gets a qualifier is beyond me, but the US Open tends to always somehow reward American players. Marterer is a huge hitter and being lefty made him look like a tour stalwart to me. He hasn’t made the final push from the Challenger tour though, despite some good results there. His serve is powerful but there isn’t a ton of variety in it and he doesn’t employ the lefty kick serve that guys like Gilles Muller and Feliciano Lopez and some guy named Nadal thrive behind. It’s a straightforward approach but one that I think will work against Steve Johnson. Johnson’s backhand is neutral at best, and the slice is quality but he basically only scores with his forehand. Despite a ton of experience and coming in fresh, Johnson is not the favorite in this one for me. He’s playing with 1 wing against a guy with two. Marterer in 4.

Cecchinato vs Svajda :

This is a great draw for Svajda, who first played on tour in the USO against Paolo Lorenzi and fell victim to fatigue after being up 2 sets. In that situation, Lorenzi played unexplainably poor in the first half of the match, but Svajda will have improved since then and matured physically which is important. He just won a junior title, and that gives him a vague chance here. Cecchinato is the ideal opponent since he’s more comfortable on clay, but he’s a bad opponent because he can hit a very heavy ball. If Svajda doesn’t hit with good depth, he’ll have a long (I guess a short) day. I’ll admit, I have not seen him play in two years though, so I shouldn’t offer too much speculation here. The books are always helpful, and them setting Cecchinato at -312 means that he’s unlikely to just roll completely over the talented US junior. Cecchinato isn’t going to draw a lot of $ at a hardcourt major, but he is a bigger name than a kid with no tour wins, so you expect the price to be shifted moderately towards him. You can infer then (if you like inferring), that the actual price for this match is more like -250 +210. Svajda’s physical ability to compete on tour is a question mark for me, so I’ll be sure to check this one out. For now, Cecchinato in 4, but the upset is very possible if Svajda has made strides since his debut.

Purcell vs Sinner :

Max Purcell is a solid player. All his wins are upsets, and he does win matches. Who even is Jannik Sinner anyway? Is that guy good? Googled it. He’s good. These two played at last years AO, and Sinner won in three. Expect the same, and Sinner is in a really good spot to make a deep run since the pressure/expectations/spotlight have kinda gone in other directions recently. Sinner in 3.

Carreño-Busta vs Cressy :

Maxime Cressy is somehow both an easy first round and a difficult one. He serve-volleys almost 100% of the time, and does very well with it. He’s good enough to pressure most tour player in one set, and it’s a good formula against PCB since the Spaniard is unlikely to lose any baseline rallies against Cressy. I think at this point PCB has played enough hardcourt tennis that he will be returning well, and he works too hard to lose more than one set here. His own serving woes will cost him against a better caliber of player, but it will require too much tennis for Cressy to win here. Pablo also does some of his best work at the USO. PCB in 4.

Korda vs Basilashvili :

On a main court, I like Korda to win this match fairly easily. He’s a big match player who excels in front of a crowd, and Basilashvili can get a bit temperamental when he makes errors. This is exacerbated when there are witnesses to these errors. On a side court, Basil is likely to play himself into this one well, and Korda’s movement and court positioning are not good enough to defend if Basil has control. I’m not trying to be cozy or familiar by calling him Basil btw, I’m just lazy. Korda’s serve and forehand combo are the reason he’s a favorite. He’s competed even with better players, and Basil has had an inconsistent season that is almost a major positive considering at one point he lost something like 9 matches in a row. Korda should win, but I would expect it to take a while. Korda in 4-5.

Musetti vs Nava :

Lorenzo Musetti is a bit like Cecchinato at this point; he really doesn’t have much ability on hardcourt. Still, Nava is a relative tour novice, and lost their previous matchup when Musetti wasn’t even on the tour yet. These are two promising youngsters, but they’re at different stages of their career. Musetti should win this in 3 or 4, but given his hardcourt losing streak, it could take a lot of work. The problem for him is his court positioning and big swings don’t lend themselves to offense nor defense on hardcourt, and it’s a similar problem to what Thiem dealt with early in his career.

Kwon vs Opelka :

After watching the tour for a while it gets tiring trying to analyze an Opelka or Isner match. Opelka is going to win this match unless he completely loses his range on serve. Kwon is going to play stable and concentrate on never missing during baseline rallies if he ever gets one. It’s a bigtime staring contest and since Opelka has been playing decent here and there this season, and seems fairly healthy, he should have an edge. Opelka in 3.

Harris vs Khachanov :

Karen’s silver medal at the Olympics let me finally breathe a sigh of relief. I’ve been insisting that this guy is a top player and has been in position to win big titles, but he’s always losing the third set of matches in the 4th round or quarters. I think it will let him breathe easier also, and that’s why he’s a -225 favorite against Lloyd Harris. Harris is by no means an easy match though. He’s in better shape than Khachanov, and has a slightly bigger serve when he’s on. Where Khachanov stands out though is with his backhand and defensive ability. While Khachanov’s play has been better than Harris’ lately, this is likely to be a long contest and with the silver medal performance fresh in people’s minds you might expect Khachanov to be a bit more expensive if he was going to roll through. There is also the very real possibility of a letdown after a stretch of good play. I’d avoid backing either player, but it seems like I’m writing an article full of predictions, so Khachanov in 5.

Escobedo vs Cuevas :

Escobedo needs to win this. So many chances on tour have slipped through his grasp, and this is a wildcard into the biggest event and playing against a claycourt specialist who hasn’t played in a month and has played 0 matches on hardcourt. The problem is that Escobedo just isn’t that good. He can serve huge, and his forehand and backhand are battering rams. He makes errors though, and he loses key points. The tour is a very unforgiving place, and losing close matches can make your career go on wildly different paths. Escobedo’s prime is sort of passing, and just in terms of funding it is very difficult to get the prime wildcards as you get older. The USTA is pretty inept at times, but there are some promising younger players and they’re likely to get lucky. You can look at a guy like Jared Donaldson, who is probably not as good at tennis as Escobedo, but managed to win a handful of close matches, and wound up staying on tour until injuries (I think) ended his career. He was not as good an athlete as Escobedo, but he made the most of his opportunities. Cuevas won’t make this easy, but with his relative rust it’s hard to point to him dominating this matchup. Someone in 4, but I’m not backing Cuevas who hasn’t played nor would I feel comfortable taking a guy correctly ranked 178 at -175.

Carballes Baena vs Paul :

RCB is always up for the challenge, but this has to be a W for Tommy Paul. He’s had bright points on tour, and is generally able to get into a third set if he’s serving well. His backhand is a little stiff but he has a really great method of guiding his forehand down the line and he’s a quick mover. Paul in 3.

Delbonis vs Shapovalov :

Believing in Shapo will leave you dumbfounded after he exits first round to someone you’ve never heard of, but that’s mostly an event at 250s. Delbonis has a slower version of Shap’s game, and although he hits big he really doesn’t beat anyone on hardcourt. The kid is a major flight risk because he’s unwilling the adjust his shot selection to the situation, but Shapovalov in 3.

Rublev vs Karlovic :

Noooooo! Watching the fairy godmodther Karlovic grant wishes with his magical racquet is my favorite activity. He’s a fun dude, and a friendly guy as well, so I was hoping he’d get someone he could beat. Rublev is prone to frustration, but Karlovic’s legs are going to run out at some point, and Rublev is likely to know this. His team aren’t fools, and despite Ivo’s refusal to play long rallies, Rublev will know to work his legs in the first set. If Karlovic gets hot serving, he might make it to a tiebreaker, but this one seems inevitable. Rublev in 3.

Martinez vs Duckworth :

I know who is better at tennis, but I do not know who will win here. Martinez is excellent, but sometimes plays injured. He hasn’t played any hardcourt events in this brief American swing, and that’s a problem. Duckworth, on the other hand, has been extremely active, but just lost to Thiago Monteiro. Monteiro is actually a cut below Martinez in terms of hardcourt ability, so Duckworth may be in for a long day. It always makes me wary when players don’t prepare for a major at all; the 75k for losing first round is not something that anyone is willing to give up. Tentatively, I like Martinez to win this. Duckworth is a hard worker though, and if Martinez starts slow he’ll lose.

Tiafoe vs Eubanks :

With Tiafoe starting to put down some amazing performances, you almost want him to get an easy first round. This is one on paper, since Eubanks generally doesn’t win on tour, but he served and played very well during qualifying. Eubanks is a tall servebot whose movement is a bit behind tour speed, but his groundstrokes are very good when he gets a hold of one. Picture a less powerful but equally inconsistent Reilly Opelka. Tiafoe should win this going away, but he’ll have to avoid getting into a shotmaking contest as playing for the crowd’s approval will give Eubanks a chance to make inroads. Tiafoe in 4, but I’d really like him to get to Rublev so I’m hoping he wins in 3.

Pella vs Krajinovic :

Krajinovic is one of the more confusing players on tour. He has had some of the same partying rumors as Wawrinka, but sometimes he shows up and looks like an entirely different human than others. Lots of players on tour catch fire or get the right draw in different weeks, but Krajinovic is different because he just looks like he’s already a complete player. He doesn’t have a huge hole in his game, and he trains with Djokovic and covers the court in a somewhat similar manner. He should roll Pella here, who just hasn’t been the same since developing some nerve issues in his foot (Morton’s neuroma allegedly, which is nerve sensitivity that makes your metatarsals hurt even when nothing is really wrong). Krajinovic is unreliable, and Pella is an insane competitor so this could be good. Krajinovic in 4 though.

Kyrgios vs Bautista-Agut :

Good. I have been waiting for Kyrgios to grow up, and it hasn’t happened. RBA has had a middling season, and has drifted back down to the level where he isn’t expected to compete against the top guys. He actually played so well for a few seasons that he’d win sets against Novak and be competitive against Nadal and Zverev and Tsitsipas and Thiem, but it hasn’t been on display this season. I actually like this, because it leaves him with no pressure in this matchup. Kyrgios will discuss having no pressure, and not caring, but it’s all optimistic deflection. He’s incapable of taking a loss in a professional manner, and this is one of those matches where RBA won’t give him an inch. Kyrgios is exciting because he can win these matches, and his poor attitude makes him a perfect villain to cheer against also. If RBA were at his peak, I’d feel bad for Kyrgios, but here it’ll be an uphill and well earned victory if he does get it. RBA in 5, but I would expect a Kyrgios injury withdrawal at some point in this event when he realizes he isn’t going to win.

Ruusuvuori vs Majchrzak :

Nobody was more impressive in qualifying than Majchrzak, but he is playing a very similar opponent. Both are adept baseliners. Neither dominates with their serve, and neither has a huge hole in their game. Both have played around the same amount of tennis this week and will get similar amounts of rest. This should be a close one, but Majchrzak has never really shown that he can defeat the better tour players. He’s lost a ton of single break sets, but it’s hard to believe until he crosses the finish line. Ruus, on the other hand, has lost in some spots where he was a significant favorite, and at only -227 this is one like the Khachanov Harris match where I think the price is correct. I’m less excited to predict the outcome than I am to see if Majchrzak has made improvements to his game. Ruusuvuori in 4.

Lopez vs Zapata Miralles :

Bernabe coming through qualifying sets him up in a great spot in this draw. Lopez is too old for professional tennis, but he’s from an era where skill was a bit more important than power. As a result, his serve and variety keep him a threat in any early round. The lefty server is always a nightmare, and Zapata Miralles won’t have a lot of experience against this kind of game. BZM has won a lot of matches this year in challengers, and played well in qualifying, but he has trouble winning in straight sets when he gets on tour. Lopez is tough to back since he’s on his neverending farewell tour, but Miralles (despite a springy serve and good work ethic) isn’t dominant enough to put this away. Lopez in 4 if I have to pick.

Donskoy vs Auger-Alliassime :

Donskoy is just one of the many older players who did great at the USO qualifying. It’s cool to see him in the draw. He’s a pretty straightforward player, who hits a flat but hard forehand and backhand and can serve decent. FAA should have a simple time here though as long as errors aren’t a concern. FAA in 3.

Garin vs Gombos :

A good draw for Gombos, who needs some wins to remain on tour for another season. Garin isn’t much on hardcourt, but Gombos doesn’t blow anyone off the court, so Christian’s athletic ability and consistency should get him through here. Garin in 4-5.

Laaksonen vs Millman :

John Millman is a guy who’s hard to figure out. He plays hard every moment of every match, but sometimes he’s able to draw his opponents into errors and other times he makes them himself. His backhand is a liability, which is a problem with Laaksonen is at least as physical as Millman, but with bigger weapons. Laaksonen served great in qualifying, and despite being a somewhat awkward looking player, his forehand is capable of hitting clean winners against anyone.

I’m expecting an upset here, but it brings up an interesting strategy I usually adopt. Since you’re paying an absurd amount of juice over time (enough to erode concepts like “value”), the main thing you need to do in sportsbetting is win at an insanely high rate. If you like an underdog, taking them at +145 is nice, but over time you are unlikely to pick these matches at a profitable rate. You can, however, take a more conservative approach and take set handicaps. Taking Laaksonen to win a single set will require you to give something like -300 odds, but one of the funnier things about sportsbetting is that people are always looking to get a 1:1 return on their investment. In the world of finance, the top funds are giving you less than 10% return on your money. In the world of bookmaking, where you are being actively cheated by the math built into the system, you’re going to eclipse the results of the world’s best analysts? Real gambling is boring, and is just a nonstop barrage of studying and self-discipline. If this sounds lame, it is. But if you want to stop losing money every week, take a more conservative approach. Seek a more breakeven approach with smaller gains being your end goal. The more specific your prediction is (taking outright outcomes), the worse your winrate will be. This is also a spot where the books cannot price the match entirely accurately. Millman’s name brings a great deal more recognition than Henri Laaksonen, who generally appears on tour 3-4 times a year. Millman is ranked almost 90 spots higher as well, so barring a publicly known injury or a horrific slump, Millman will always be listed as the favorite heading into this, which creates a cushion (and some minor equity) in the games line between the book’s models and the public investment of $. One of the things I want to avoid is popularizing gambling or offering “picks” because these are both terribly destructive practices, but understanding concepts like this can help you so I mention them. Don’t gamble folks, buy cookies or pizza. Laaksonen in 5.

Lajovic vs Paire :

Hehe. Benoit Paire winning matches, despite his horrific behavior during the slump, makes me laugh. I love the dropshots. I love the reckless flailing as he thumps down serve after serve. I love the mock focus while he rolls his forehand optimistically over the net. I love the way he leans into his backhand and how immediately he gains control over the rally during a bh-to-bh exchange. With his recent surge, he has a pretty good chance to win here, but Lajovic is a no-nonsense player who will be hanging around should Paire’s level drop. Paire served well in his last couple outtings, but Lajovic nabbed some wins of his own, including one against Auger-Alliassime. I don’t see much to separate these two. It will be Paire’s to win or lose, and my genuine strategy for analyzing Paire matches is to avoid ever betting on him. He’s too rich, and too immature. Lajovic in 4-5.

Gojowczyk vs Humbert :

Turn back the clock! Peter Gojowczyk was a feel-good story when he first got on tour, but then he managed to win a bunch of matches and stay there. Just when you felt like he was comfortable, the losses started coming. He hits a very flat ball and never really takes extra steps, so when he’s hurried on his groundstrokes he can make errors. On the flipside, when his timing is on he can play some mercurial offense. This might have one or two close sets because he’s near his peak, but Humbert’s defensive abilities have been steadily improving, and Gojo’s backhand is unlikely to hold up. Humbert in 4.

Norrie vs Alcaraz :

Outside of the big title winners, nobody is having a better season than Cam Norrie. Three losses in a row though make this a tough match to receive. The losses aren’t bad, to the likes of Khachanov, Nishikori, and Isner in a 3rd set. Winning begets winning on tour though, and every time I see Alcaraz’ forehand I think “it’s Nadal #2.” He really smokes the ball and his work ethic is improving as he gets more comfortable on tour. I think he’s a notch below the caliber that Norrie has played this year, but Norrie’s level this year has been a relative outlier in his career. I’m definitely going to enjoy watchin this match, as Norrie’s defense is likely to frustrate Alcaraz, but Norrie similarly may feel like he’s on a string chasing Alcaraz’ offense. The big question is whether Carlos can play 4-5 sets of big tennis without errors or mental fatigue creeping in. I’m not so sure, but Norrie (despite being a very solid player) isn’t going to blow him off the court. I’m reminded of Alcaraz’ trouble with Monteiro, so I lean towards the Brit being a small favorite. Norrie in 5.

Kecmanovic vs Rinderknech :

Kecmanovic is hanging onnnnnn for dear life. Rinderknech is likely to remain on tour now that he’s ranked high enough to get direct entry into these events. He hits bigger than Kecmanovic, and has a great serve to play behind. He should be a solid favorite here, and the only question mark is the hot and humid conditions. Kecmanovic is better suited to going to 5 sets here, but I’m not sure how he’ll get here. This is a player that beat Sinner this year, and has been notching nonstop wins on the Challenger tour. The year after Kecmanovic smoked the Challenger tour, he was at his best on tour, so expect Rinderknech to be near his peak here also for another few months. Rinderknech in 4.

Mannarino vs Herbert :

This is pretty cool. I actually forget about Mannarino sometimes during the clay season, but Herbert is unlikely to forget him since Mannarino has won all of their meetings. I don’t see much in Herbert’s recent performances to believe in, but he hasn’t played poorly either. Mannarino is pretty inactive, so this is Herbert’s best chance despite his slump. Herbert in 4, but at -190 there no way I’d pay that much for a guy who’s 0-3 in the H2H. Conversely, Mannarino is towards the end of his career and neither the +150 nor the 3.5 games will feel like enough if he loses.

Murray vs Tsitsipas :

Andy Murray! I don’t know how much longer I’ll be interested in this, but these are the types of matches I want him to play. I don’t expect him to make big runs, or to recover his athletic ability, but he has some good skill and this should be a fun matchup. Tsitsipas, whose father has always coached him during matches, and whose father has gotten multiple warnings for coaching during matches, and whose father has coached him during matches after getting multiple warnings for coaching during matches, recently got accused of receiving coaching from his father during matches. I was shocked. Seriously though, there is nothing about Tsitsipas to really hate too much, but it’s been pretty clear from his behavior on court and on social media that he’s not the brightest crayon in the box. Add in a lifetime of general wealth and the “you’re going to be great” coddling that goes along with being a tennis prodigy, and the dude is just kinda going to do and say whatever he wants to and mindlessly wander through any backlash. His dad seems like a dingus, but hopefully they can make it through this one without too much incident. Murray can’t move. Venus Williams can’t move. Gosh I love these players and I loved watching them during their prime, but it’s hard to see them continuing on tour for too much longer. Playing tennis with limited movement just isn’t possible. Tsitsipas in 3.

Ruud vs Tsonga :

Circle this one on your draws. Then remove the circle. Then put the circle back. I do not expect Tsonga to win matches on tour anymore. He took a very long break after the birth of his child, and he seems 15lbs overweight since his return. The guy was a tremendous athlete who won behind huge power on his forehand. I just don’t see him getting back in shape. After saying that though, I’m reminded of how much I’d LIKE to see him get back i shape. Sadly though, Ruud may be too far past him at this point for it to matter. Ruud is supposed to be a clay specialist, but that doesn’t stop him from being better than something like everyone except the top 30 players on hardcourt. This is a good draw for him, and he should win in straight sets here or 4 if he drops the first. Ruud in 3.

Van De Zandschulp vs Taberner :

BVDZ was looking like he would crash out in his final qualifier round, but he made a pretty solid comeback to get this spot. It’s a good spot too, as Carlos Taberner mostly wins on clay. He hasn’t played a hardcourt match either, but is still good enough to beat Botic if Botic is fatigued. I wouldn’t count on it with a few days of rest. Van De Zandschulp has had some injury issues, but should win this in 4-5.

Bagnis vs Daniel :

This match feels like two dudes snuck into the US Open in tennis gear and just got on the court and started playing. Such a great spot for both of them to get 2nd round money. Daniel is better on hardcourt, so he should win, but Bagnis never quits and being lefty gives you a ton of chances against a guy like Taro who doesn’t serve aces or hit huge. Daniel in 5.

Trungelitti vs Davidovich Fokina :

Trungelitti was serving at 15-40 down 5-6 in the 3rd set of his qualifier, and I turned it off. He is supposed to be a clay specialist, but has somehow become a hardcourt qualifier nightmare over the past two seasons. He’s serving well, and mixing in a ton of hyper-aggressive dropshots. It’s such a confusing result for him to smoke people on hardcourt, that I almost think this is a tricky spot for ADF. Fokina has lost his two hardcourt matches, and has lost all the previous matches against Trungeliti (though they were on clay). A slow start for ADF could be a problem here, and for a dude with a ton of injury woes you never really know what condition he’s entering an event in. Kovacevic is a huge step below tour level though, so Fokina (if he’s healthy) should get his first win against Trungelitti. It may take a while though, so I’d avoid handicaps here. Fokina in 4.

Isner vs Nakashima :

One of the hardest things I’ve had to do this week is acknowledge that Isner has a good chance to make a run here. The weather is disgusting and there may be frequent stoppages for rain. Isner has been serving well in the past few weeks but hasn’t played enough tennis to be physically shot. I would love Nakashima to win, since he’s the exact opposite of Isner. Fun aggressive baselining, and tons of rallies. I think though, that Isner will just bounce the ball over people’s heads for a few rounds. This is the same as Opelka vs Kwon; Nakashima only wins if Isner plays poor service games. Isner in 4.

Molcan vs Ilkel :

Qualifier fiiiiiiiiiiight! Molcan is one of my favorite new tour players, and he dominated the Challenger tour last season to earn his spot on tour. Coming through qualfiying is a great sign especially since clay is his best surface. Similarly, Cem Ilkel has been lurking near the edge of the tour for a while. He was serving great this week and hitting very hard. Molcan and Elias had a higher level match than Ilkel has played, but Elias’ big hitting seemed to unravel Molcan a bit. Molcan has that Norrie style of staying in rallies, but he’s willing to go much bigger when he does get opportunities. The result is that he’s a tough out, but does make some errors. This match will be about whether Ilkel can outwork Molcan, because they both have had the same amount of tennis player this week. Molcan should be a slight favorite, and I’m a fan so I expect him to win because that’s how the world works? Go Mertens US Open champion! Molcan in 5.

Vesely vs Anderson :

Playing Kevin Anderson first round is like playing the boss before you play the level. The dude is pretty much the best servebot I’ve ever seen, because when the ball comes back, he actually can play tennis. Huge groundstrokes and a commitment to the mundane make him somehow both tiring to play from the baseline and frustrating to try to break. Vesely hasn’t done much this year, and barring injury, Anderson should win this eventually. I do think Vesely can win a set or two, but it’s so difficult playing big servers in deciding sets. Anderson in 4.

Berankis vs Schwartzman :

How many matches are in this tournament anyway? “What do you want to be when you grow up?” the teacher asked Berankis. “I told you I don’t know!” insisted Ricardas, as he stormed out of the classroom. She didn’t know though. Nobody did. About the tiny little photo in his wallet of Diego Schwartzman. For real though, Berankis is just Diego without the speed. They’re both incredible from the baseline and they both outlast their opponents until they make errors. I would expect Schwartzman to have an edge here that will be hard to overturn. Schwartzman in 3.

Dimitrov vs Riffice :

I actually have no idea who Riffice is. Dimitrov is Grigor enough to Dimitrov in this situation though. If you are reading this, Riffice, just Riffice it. I believe in you. Dimitrov is gonna have trouble Grigoring. You can be the Riffice. Dimitrov in 3 I guess?

Popyrin vs Albot :

I know r/tennis is with me in hoping that Albot comes alive here. Popyrin has the serve and power though to dismiss him if he’s still in a half a slump, and it seems like he is. Popyrin in 3, OR OUR BOY RADU IN 5 AMAZING SETS AND THEN HE JUMPS AND LANDS ON THE MOON AND ON THE MOON ARE A BUNCH OF OTHER RADU ALBOTS AND THEY FORM A SOCCER TEAM AND WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE LETS GOOOOOO!

Giron vs Hoang :

I think the edibles have kicked in. I will attempt to focus. Hoang managed to get zipped in the final round of qualifying, and I thought Kukushkin was another one about to turn back the clock. He’s been stuck off tour for a while, but I’d watch him for the next few weeks because he might be finding form again. I have no clue how Hoang turned it around, as he looked fatigued and likely to lose the second set, but you can’t underestimate youth in the difficult NYC conditions. If both of these players were fresh, I’d probably give a solid edge to Giron. He walked the road Hoang is a few seasons ago, and has tour experience. Hoang has a great serve and an interesting backhand, but he doesn’t have a simple way to score points. Giron isn’t going to run him off the court, but Giron’s style of hanging back a bit and smoothing the ball in is really only taken apart by players who hit huge or are able to really create angles during rallies where they’re able to get to net. I think Giron is a bit quicker, and likely to have much fresher legs given the heroic effort Hoang put in against Kukushkin. When it comes to tournament recovery, you can do it in 24 hours. There is a point though where there’s not a lot left, but you gut through with adrenaline and mental fortitude. This tends to create lasting fatigue, as diet and a few days is likely the only thing that will bring you back to 100%. Giron is no dominating force, but he should win this in 4-5.

Monteiro vs Evans :

I can see the finish line. Monteiro would never beat Evans on hardcourt. That would be mean, and Monteiro’s not mean. Evans recent middling performances are not very troubling for me. As a shorter player, it would be pretty impossible for him to win all the time. It takes too much work for him to win points, and as a skill player he also requires full focus to produce. Monteiro will push the pace, but Evans should be able to remain safe by keeping the focus to Thiago’s backhand. His backhand is fine, but it tends to just go crosscourt and Evans forehand isn’t something that takes a ton of effort to produce. Evans in 4.

Cilic vs Kohlschreiber :

Hehe. This guy Cilic sure knows how to keep us guessing. Wimbledon finals he’ll do well for sure! Panic attack. Neverending slump he’ll definitely keep losing! Stuttgart title. At this point, I am interested. I never know what to expect from Cilic, and I honestly thought his losses at 250 events were lack of motivation. Plenty of guys pick up their appearance checks and throw a win to a lower tier player, or just have trouble competing after coming from a major. I heard from his camp though that he is always training and always trying to improve and reach that pinnacle again, so it must just be really difficult to play professional tennis. Certainly, he has the tools, and is a joy to watch when he’s on. This is a tricky match because he “should” win, and it has seemed in the past that he does not perform well when there is a great deal of pressure. Kohlschreiber is a step slower than his prime, but he’s very tricky and a good returner. He’ll look to slow down rallies and make it an exchange of shots rather than a fast-paced counterpunching affair. Kohl’s shape on his forehand and backhand are excellent and Cilic does do better with a flat ball hit at him. At this point Cilic in unbackable, but he should still win here. Cilic in 4.

Kukushkin vs Andujar-Alba :

Kukushkin awakens in a cold sweat. Looking around bewildered, he sees no hotel room nor bed but a vast jungle. Fearful, he reaches up to feel his head. “Phew, still a perfect rectangle”, he thinks, and begins walking. In the distance he sees a mountain, on top of a cloud, on top of a jaguar, on top of a crocodile, on top of what appears to be a man. “Welcome,” says a voice. “Where are you?” says Kukushkin. “I’m in your head,” says the voice, “I’m in your perfectly rectangular head.”

“Wait,” says Kukushkin, “is that you Pablo?” There is no response for a moment. “Oh hey Mikhail, didn’t know it was you” responds the voice, in a very Pablo-ish manner. “But you’re in my head?” says Kukushkin. “I’m in everyone’s head,” says the voice, “I’M PABLO ANDUJARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR”

Pretty cool that Kukushkin gets the lucky loser spot, but he’s playing the jaguar king so I’m very conflicted. I would expect Kukushkin to be a bit fatigued, but the US Open is where he’s had some great runs. Andujar has the baseline stability to shut down Kukushkin’s probing offense, but the dude doesn’t play enough hardcourt to really be a lock here. At the risk of betraying my jungle roots, I think Kukushkin wins here. Kukushkin in 5.

Koepfer vs Hayls :

This is one of those matches where you’re fairly certain that Koepfer will win. Halys is relatively unknown, and Koepfer is pretty good. Then somehow Halys wins in straight sets and you’re like whaaaaaaaatttttttt? I like Koepfer’s game but he hasn’t been winning matches (he only beat Cecchinato this hardcourt swing) and Halys won his last two qualifying matches in straight sets, including a beatdown of Gulbis. I think the upset is possible here, unless Koepfer finds his best tennis (it’s a super mystery how and when he will). Halys in 5.

Gasquet vs Medvedev :

This should be fun, but I need dinner and I’m only halfway through the WTA draw, so I’ll be honest. Gasquet is the most beautiful tennis player you’ll see in this first round, but it’s like picking your favorite character in Super Smash Bros for N64 and then you look and the other guy picked Kirby. Medvedev is Kirby, and if you made me choose one player to win this event, I’d probably land on him considering his incredibly consistent play the past few years at this tournament and the pressure sitting on Novak’s shoulders. Medvedev in 3-4.