WTA PTD/Futures Preview 9/26-10/2
WTA Parma 250 Preview
Court Type: CLAY
Location: Parma, Italy
Weather: High of 20-24 degrees Celsius throughout the week with occasional rain, mild humidity
2021 finals: Gauff def Qiang Wang
Notable Competitors: (futures odds pulled from BetOnline)
- Sakkari (1) +250
- Begu (3) +650
- Bogdan (6) +900
- Sorribes Tormo +1200
- Stephens (4) +1200
- Zidansek +1400
- Paolini (Italian) +1600
- Trevisan (2) +1800
- Bondar (5) +2000
- Zanevska +2000
- Cocciaretto (Italian) +2500
- Parrizas Diaz (7) +3300
- Bronzetti (8) (Italian) +4000
Initial Impressions: This is a seemingly weaker field than Tallinn, but it is also full of players who excel on clay. The bottom half seems to be stronger than the top half. The top half has Sakkari, Stephens, Paolini, Zanevska, Parrizas Diaz, Bronzetti. The bottom half has Begu, Bogdan, Sorribes Tormo, Zidansek, Bondar, Trevisan. Sakkari is not a reliable top seed but she has a good draw. The next two, Begu and Bogdan are in seriously good form. Begu just won Bucharest 125 on clay a week ago, and Bogdan is 13-3 in her last 16 matches with a large portion of the matches on clay. Bogdan’s recent wins have been of higher quality, but Begu utterly dominated Bucharest 125 without dropping a set, and didn’t drop more than 3 games in a set. HOWEVER, Bogdan and Begu are in the same quarter, and the winner likely faces Sorribes Tormo in the SF. Although Sorribes Tormo may not have the recent run of form, she is a menace to play on clay, and has given both Begu and Bogdan trouble in the past. Stephens and Zidansek are both extremely dangerous players on clay but also maddeningly inconsistent. On their best days, they can beat anyone in the draw, but they can lose to anyone too. The quality in this field drops off significantly after the +1400 level.
Players to avoid: I would avoid Trevisan, a 2 seed having such long odds is a bad sign for her chances. As a 2 seed, she should have a favorable draw, and yet the books are willing to offer such a long price because she is in terrible form. Moreover, she has Sorribes Tormo in the first round and is a solid underdog despite being the #2 seed.
Value picks: My value picks here are Sorribes Tormo and Bronzetti
Sorribes Tormo (+1200) drew a matchup with the #2 seed Trevisan. She is favored to win, and then she is gifted with a favorable draw, potentially facing Bogdan/Begu in the SF. She is perfectly capable of grinding her way to a title here. Bronzetti (+4000) is my darkhorse longshot, she went on an incredible run at Palermo on clay several months ago where she got to the finals, and even beat Caroline Garcia along the way. However, it seems she got injured during the US Open and is working her way back into form. She plays Zanevska 1R, who beat her 6-1, 6-0 two weeks ago. She followed it up with a very competitive 3 setter against Korpatsch last week, so she might be putting it back together. If she beats Zanevska in the rematch, watch out.
WTA Tallinn 250 Preview
Court Type: HARD
Location: Tallinn, Estonia
Weather: High of 22-26 degrees Celsius throughout the week, partly cloudy with occasional showers, mild humidity
2021 result: none
Notable Competitors: (futures odds pulled from BetOnline)
- Kontaveit (1) (Estonian) +550
- Bencic (2) +550
- Haddad Maia (3) +750
- Keys (4) +800
- Rogers +1400
- Ostapenko (5) (Latvian) +1400
- Zhang (8) +1400
- Kanepi (Estonian) +1400
- Tomljanovic +1600
- Muchova +1600
- Krejcikova (7) +2000
- Kostyuk +2500
- Martincova +4000
- Xiyu Wang +4000
Initial Impressions: This is a very deep field with top seeds who are not in great form despite the futures odds suggesting they are favorites. The +1400 to +1600 range in here may very well contain the outright winner here, with Rogers, Zhang, and Tomljanovic in great form and Kanepi being a home favorite with a reasonable draw. With that said, although Kontaveit has been seriously struggling, Bencic, Haddad Maia, and Keys are not in bad form, so we can’t completely write them off, but I don’t see any value in betting them. There is also one notable name missing from this list, Linda Noskova, 17 year old Czech phenom came through qualifying and is not yet listed in futures odds.
Players to avoid: I would avoid Ostapenko at all costs. She is coming off a finals run in Seoul which has a huge time difference. Moreover, she hurt her foot/ankle in the final against Alexandrova and was not even running for balls by the end of the match. Kanepi should benefit from drawing Ostapenko first round. I would also avoid Kontaveit as one of the favorites. Although she is a home favorite, she has shown nothing of the form from last year, and there is speculation she is still struggling from some effects of Long Covid. Xiyu Wang is more than capable of upsetting her in the first round. I would also be wary of picking Haddad Maia, she is also making a big time zone switch from Tokyo last week, and potentially has a very dangerous matchup with Noskova in the 2nd round.
Value picks: Shelby Rogers and Xiyu Wang.
Rogers (+1400) is getting a lot of respect from the books, being the #5 favorite despite being unseeded. She has been in very good form during the North American hard court swing, and this being her first tournament since the US Open, she is well rested. She had a good showing at the USO, losing to eventual finalist Ons Jabeur in a tight 3 set match. Xiyu Wang (+4000) is my longshot pick. She is a longshot because of drawing Kontaveit first round, but in terms of ability, she is right up there with the players in the +1400 range. She is a super talented and athletic 21 year old who within the last few months has collected wins over names such as Sakkari, Krejcikova, Azarenka, Tatjana Maria, Bogdan, and Vekic. If she beats Kontaveit, She made the semifinals at Washington before losing to Samsonova, so she is capable of making a run, and there is no Samsonova to stop her here.