WTA PTD/Futures Preview 10/3- 10/9
Note: I took a look at the WTA Ostrava draw, and it looks like a total crapshoot, so I’m just going to skip it. I did find a good futures pick for WTA Monastir though, which I will explain below.
WTA Monastir 250 Preview
Court Type: HARD outdoor
Location: Monastir, Tunisia
Weather: High of 27-30 degrees Celsius, sunny all week
Past results: This is the first edition of the Jasmine Open in Monastir, Tunisia, due to cancellations of events in China as a result of the Peng Shuai scandal. The rise of Ons Jabeur and African tennis is the primary reason for the introduction of this new event.
Notable Competitors: (odds from BetOnline, finally got odds midway through 2nd round)
- (1) Jabeur +160
- (2) Kudermetova +275
- (3) Cornet +650
- (4) Martic +1200
- (5) Mertens +600
- (6) Potapova +1200
- (7) Siniakova eliminated by Liu
- (8) Linette eliminated by Stefanini
- Fruhvirtova eliminated by Martic
- Liu +1200
- Zidansek +2500
- Parry +1600
- Frech +3300
- Rodina +6600
Value pick: Mertens +600
I love this pick, as Mertens has not been in great form, but she also hasn’t been losing to bad players, so you’ll probably get a good price on Mertens. I will be the first to admit that Mertens is not the best player in the draw, and she is not in the best form. However, the draw looks good for a Mertens run, and she will be motivated to salvage an underwhelming season. Let’s dig a little deeper into why I love this pick.
1R: vs Cristian
Cristian is still working her way back into form from an injury. This should be a good chance for Mertens to find her form and gain some confidence.
2R: vs Papamichail
29 year old Papamichail just got her first ever top 100 win against Zhu in the first round. Papamichail has not shown the ability to really challenge top 50 players yet though, and I imagine Mertens’ defensive ability will be too much for Papamichail to handle.
QF: likely Martic or Fruhvirtova
- H2H Mertens vs Martic 3-0
- H2H Mertens vs Fruhvirtova 0-1
We’re hoping Martic beats Fruhvirtova here. Fruhvirtova followed up her first WTA title with a disappointing loss against Wickmayer. If Fruhvirtova regains her peak form, she is a scarier opponent than Martic. With that said, her win against Mertens was a 3 setter in Miami earlier this year, and Mertens is certainly capable of beating Fruhvirtova.
SF: Jabeur or Siniakova or Liu
- H2H Mertens vs Jabeur 1-1
- H2H Mertens vs Siniakova 4-0
- H2H Mertens vs Liu 0-1
Mertens has a game that matches up pretty well against Jabeur, and it shows in the 2 matches they’ve played. Mertens beat Jabeur at Wimbledon earlier this year when Jabeur was one of the favorites to win. Mertens also seems to have an edge over Siniakova. The scariest opponent surprisingly is Liu, who recently beat Mertens quite easily. Liu would have to get through both Siniakova and Jabeur though.
F: Kudermetova, Cornet, Potapova, or Linette
- H2H Mertens vs Kudermetova 4-1
- H2H Mertens vs Cornet 2-2
- H2H Mertens vs Potatpova 0-0
- H2H Mertens vs Linette 3-1
If Mertens makes it to the final, there isn’t anyone in the opposite half of the draw who really scares you. She should match up pretty evenly with Cornet and Potapova, and has a H2H edge against Kudermetova and Linette.