WTA PTD/Futures Preview 10/10 - 10/16
Last week’s bets
WTA Monastir 250
Mertens outright: Mertens def Cornet in the final
Got this one right with some good fortune from Claire Liu upsetting Ons Jabeur. Once Mertens got to the semifinals she rolled through both SF and F. One interesting development to note though, is neither Martic nor Fruhvirtova made it to the QF matchup with Mertens; instead, it was 21 year old qualifier Uchijima. Uchijima upset Martic in the second round and gave Mertens all she could handle in the QF. Uchijima is a player to watch going forward, she is like a right-handed WTA Nishioka, very tricky player.
WTA Cluj-Napoca (Transylvania Open) 250 Preview
Court Type: HARD indoor
Location: Cluj-Napoca, Romania
Weather: indoor event
Past results: In 2021, Kontaveit defeated Halep in the final. Kostyuk was a semi-finalist. Kalinina and Cristian were quarterfinalists.
Notable Competitors: (odds from BetOnline)
- (1) Krejcikova +400 (updated to +425)
- (6) Kostyuk +900 (updated to +1000)
- (3) Bogdan (Romanian) +1200
- (5) Linette +1200
- (4) Potapova +1200
- Bouchard +1600 (updated to +2000)
- Niemeier +2000
- (8) Bondar +2000
- (7) Xiyu Wang +2000 (updated to +2800)
- (2) Kalinina +2500
- Cristian (Romanian) +3300 (updated to +4000)
- Ruse (Romanian) +3300
- Bonaventure +3300 (updated to +1800)
- Galfi +4000 (updated to +5000)
Futures Analysis: The top half of this draw is much stronger, with Krejcikova, Kostyuk, and Bogdan all in the top half. With that said, there is only one question that really matters in this field: is Krejcikova actually playing? Krejcikova just won two tournaments in two weeks, and just won two tough 3 setters back to back against Rybakina and Swiatek to win Ostrava 500, her home tournament. If Krejcikova withdraws, Galfi (+4000) will be the immediate beneficiary as she has Krejcikova first round. Xiyu Wang (+2000) will also be a huge beneficiary, being the other seed in Krejcikova’s quarter.
The bottom half feels like a total crapshoot, as almost any player could potentially come out of that half of the draw.
Value pick: Bogdan outright +1200, Wang to win her quarter (awaiting odds). The chance of Krejcikova withdrawing is high enough that players in her quarter/half offer great potential value
If Krejcikova doesn’t play, Bogdan is the next best player in this field, and she is also Romanian so she has home court advantage. The reason why Kostyuk has shorter odds is Bogdan has a very tough opponent in Niemeier first round. But if Krejcikova withdraws and Bogdan wins her first round she should be the clear favorite.
Wang to win her quarter is a great bet, if you can find it. I’m guessing the books are smart enough to not offer quarter winner odds until Krejcikova’s status is confirmed. But if you can find this, I would take it. Even if Krejcikova plays, Wang could beat her if she’s not on top of her game.
WTA San Diego 500 Preview
Court Type: HARD outdoor
Location: San Diego, California
Weather: high of 21-22 degrees C all week, mostly sunny
Past results: first year of this tournament due to cancellation of events in China
I took a look at this draw and the futures feels un-bettable. The 1st quarter is completely loaded with Swiatek, Rybakina, Muguruza, Samsonova, Andreescu, and Gauff. Garcia and Collins are good candidates to come out of the bottom half but they face each other first round. Sabalenka is another good candidate but she likely faces an in-form Kudermetova in her first match, and she hasn’t played since the US Open. Badosa has the best draw but she is in the worst form. I have no idea how this draw will play out, so I’m staying away.