NBA Futures Analysis: MVP Futures

I periodically check on NBA Player Futures odds, and when I checked today I saw a number that completely blew me away. I did some more digging into some advanced stats and confirmed that this is an extreme value bet.

Current MVP Odds (FanDuel)

• Tatum +270
• Giannis +290
• Doncic +290
• Curry +700
• Embiid +1200
• Mitchell +2700
• Morant +3000
• Booker +3000
• Jokic +3200
• Durant +3500
• Gilgeous Alexander +5500
• Lilliard +11000
• Trae Young +1200
• Anthony Davis +13000

Gill’s NBA MVP Futures Value Bet

Anthony Davis +13000

Here is Anthony Davis’s current per game averages: 27.2 pts / 12.6 reb / 2.7 ast / 1.4 stl / 2.4 blk / .577 FG% / .822 FT%

• currently #1 in the league in rebounds per game
• currently #3 in the league in blocks per game
• all per game averages currently above career averages
• his career best per game averages are 28.1 pts (2017-18), 12.0 reb (18-19), 3.9 ast (18-19), 1.6 stl (18-19), 2.9 blk (14-15), .535 FG% (14-15), .846 FT% (19-20)

Below are the initial reasons why this number jumped out at me:

• Anthony Davis has carried the Lakers trainwreck to a 7-2 record in the last 9 games in a spectacular turnaround
• AD points per game is trending up
• AD is already in the running for Defensive Player of the Year, currently at +2200
• The “LAKERS R BAD” narrative to start the season plays into the importance of AD if he leads them to the playoffs
• The Lakers just beat the Bucks in Milwaukee, where AD outplayed Giannis with a 44 point masterclass
• Lakers new coach Darvin Ham seems to have built an extremely good rapport with AD which is showing in his play
• AD is now the focal point of the Lakers offense; Westbrook is coming off the bench and AD is now averaging more ppg than LeBron

After digging into some advanced metrics, here is what else I found:

• AD’s PER (player efficiency rating) is #3 in the league, behind only Doncic and Jokic
• AD’s Win Shares is #5 in the league, behind Doncic, Durant, Jokic, and Curry
• AD’s Defensive Win Shares is #2 in the league, behind only Evan Mobley
• AD’s Offensive Win Shares is #7 in the league, behind Jokic, Durant, Doncic, Curry, Tatum, and Booker. Note that he is still in front of Gilgeous Alexander, Mitchell, Trae Young, Giannis, Embiid, and Morant.

The advanced metrics seem to suggest that Anthony Davis is clearly a top 5 player overall, while the MVP odds have him currently in #14.

Next, I’ll show how Anthony Davis MVP is a value play by comparing him to players in his odds range

Anthony Davis (+13000) vs Lilliard (+11000) and Trae Young (+12000)

Lilliard (+11000) (note: Lilliard has only played 11 games, has been out for 2 weeks with a calf strain)

• 26.3 pts / 4.3 reb / 7.0 ast / 0.5 stl / 0.3 blk / .422 FG% / .875 FT%
• Trail Blazers are currently 11-11
• Lilliard PER is 21.5, outside of the top 20
• Lilliard Win Shares is 1.1 due to missing games, tied with LeBron James at #119

Trae Young (+12000)

• 27.8 pts / 2.9 reb / 9.6 ast / 0.8 stl / 0.1 blk / .411 FG% / .899 FT%
• Hawks are currently 13-10
• Trae Young PER is 22.4 at #18
• Trae Young Win Shares is 2.1 at #30
• Trae Young Offensive Win Shares is 1.6 at #21
• Trae Young Defensive Win Shares is 0.5 at #114

Anthony Davis (+13000)

• 27.2 pts / 12.6 reb / 2.7 ast / 1.4 stl / 2.4 blk / .577 FG% / .822 FT%
• Lakers are currently 9-12 (7-2 in last 9)
• AD PER is 30.6 at #3
• AD Win Shares is 3.7 at #4
• AD Offensive Win Shares is 2.4 at #7
• AD Defensive Win Shares is 1.3 at #2

These advanced stats confirm what I had suspected, that Lilliard and Trae Young should not be in the same MVP tier as AD. Moreover, Lilliard is already injured, and Dejounte Murray arriving in Atlanta is detrimental to Trae Young’s MVP hopes.

How does Anthony Davis win MVP?

Ok, so Anthony Davis is undervalued, but can he actually win MVP? I say yes, and here is how:

• AD leads the Lakers to the playoffs as a top 6 team
• AD plays a full season
• AD leads the team in scoring

If these three criteria are met, and AD maintains something close to his current level of production, AD should be an MVP frontrunner. AD has always had MVP potential, but just needed the right circumstances to achieve it. With Jokic winning the MVP last year on a Nuggets team which was a #6 seed in the playoffs, voters have shown that being the best player on the best team is no longer the most important factor in MVP voting.

What are the risks?

• AD gets injured
• LeBron gets injured
• The Lakers start playing badly again

I’m actually less concerned about the Lakers just playing bad again, because I think they have finally figured things out under new coach Darvin Ham. The injury risk is significant, given AD’s injury history, and LeBron’s age. If LeBron goes down, it will be more difficult for AD to carry the Lakers into the playoffs, and his efficiency may drop. On the flip side, if LeBron goes down and AD DOES lead them to a top 6 seed, that helps his MVP case even more. The AD injury risk is definitely a significant risk, but at these odds, you just have to accept that risk. I’ll also present a way to hedge that risk in the next section.

How is Gill betting this?

Gill is placing three bets of varying sizes on AD MVP futures on FanDuel: a 1 unit free bet, a 5 unit cash bet, and a 10 unit cash bet. On FanDuel, I am (sometimes) able to cash out futures bets when the odds shift. In this case, I am not intending to hold the 5 unit and 10 unit bets until the end of the season; I intend to cash them out when the odds adjust to a certain level. The reasons for this are: to lock in profits with minimal risk, and to hedge injury risk. I intend to cash out the 10 unit bet when AD’s odds adjust to where I believe he should be, which is in the +2000 to +3000 range, which is in the tier of Mitchell, Morant, Booker, Jokic, and Durant (AD opened the season at +3300 odds so around there is a good cashout target). I intend to cash out the 5 unit bet if AD becomes top 5 in the odds, below +800. The goal is to make at least 2x on the 10 unit bet, and at that point I’ve already won. On the 5 unit bet, the goal is to make around 5x. The free bet can’t be cashed out, so I’ll let that ride to the end.

Why do I say this has minimal risk? There’s very little chance AD’s MVP odds go longer than +13000 given his current level of play. The only thing that would for sure make his odds go longer is a season-ending injury in the near future. So this is the game we play; hope that AD’s MVP odds adjust to where they should be before he gets injured.

Thanks for reading

What is everyone’s thoughts? Anything you disagree with, anything to add? Stop by the DegensClub discord to discuss! Also feel free to participate in DegensClub’s Pick the Draw and Odds Competitions to test your betting ability against other degens.