ATP PTD/Futures Preview 9/26 - 10/2

ATP Tel Aviv 250 Preview

Court Type: HARD

Location: Tel Aviv, Israel

Weather: high of 30-32 degrees C throughout the week, sunny all week, somewhat humid

2021 finals: none

Notable Competitors (odds pulled from Pinnacle):

• Djokovic (-200)
• The Field (+160)

Initial Impressions: When it comes to betting futures in any tournament with Djokovic, the first question you should ask is, can anyone beat Djokovic? The second question you should ask is, who is likely to win the other half of the draw? To answer the first question, the only players in Djokovic’s half who have beaten him are: Karatsev. And that was on clay. And Karatsev is not in good form, so he likely doesn’t even make it to a potential matchup with Djokovic in the SF. The players who have beaten Djokovic in the other half are: Cilic (2), Thiem. Cilic is 2-18 all time against Djokovic, and Thiem is 5-7. Unfortunately, Cilic and Thiem are playing each other in the 2nd round, and Cilic probably wins there. Cressy (4) and Korda are in Cilic’s half and perhaps have the quality to give Djokovic a challenge, and neither of them have ever played Djokovic. However, Cressy and Korda also play each other in the 2nd round. The way I see it, there’s no one who is a real threat to Djokovic the way this draw was set up. Djokovic hasn’t had much match play in the last few months, but all of the dangerous unseeded players such as Thiem, Korda, Ruusuvuori, Wolf, who can challenge Djokovic in early rounds are in the other half. Once Djokovic wins a round or two he gets harder and harder to beat. And let’s not forget Djokovic defeated Tiafoe clinically in Laver Cup before losing to Felix Auger Allisasime in a competitive 3 set match. His form is not bad enough to fade him, so when it comes to futures here, I believe the only options are betting on Djokovic to win, or not betting at all.

Players to avoid: Everyone in Djokovic’s half of the draw: (Schwartzman (3), Karatsev (6), Griekspoor (8), Monteiro, Andujar, Leshem, Oliel, Pospisil, Rinderknech, Copil, Safiullin, Etcheverry).

Value picks: The best value here is no bet, unless you can get decent odds on Djokovic outright (you probably won’t)

ATP Sofia 250 Preview

Court Type: HARD

Location: Sofia, Bulgaria

Weather: high of 22-25 degrees C throughout the week, rain on Tuesday, sunny/partly cloudy rest of the week, mild humidity

2021 result: Sinner def Monfils

Notable Competitors: (futures odds pulled from Pinnacle)

• Sinner (1) +181
• Carreno Busta (2) +514
• Draper (7) Withdrew
• Dimitrov (3) (Bulgarian) +821
• Sonego +1129
• Musetti (4) +1436
• Ivashka +924 (opened around +1600, already won his 1R vs M Ymer)
• Rune +1641
• Struff +2200 (from BetOnline, not listed on Pinnacle)
• Basilashvili (6) +2562
• Van Rijthoven +2972

Initial Impressions: Sinner is going for his third consecutive ATP Sofia title, and is targeting an appearance in the ATP Finals, so we can assume he is motivated to defend his title. Draper withdrawing and Ivashka beating Ymer thins the field of challengers to Sinner’s throne.

1st Quarter: Sinner’s quarter does not seem threatening, with probable matchups with Borges in 2R and Fognini/Basilashvili in QF. Sinner’s SF should prove to be a good challenge, with Dimitrov, Ivashka, Sonego, Rune, or Van Rijthoven fighting for that SF spot.

2nd Quarter: Be wary of buying futures on any guys from 2nd quarter (Dimitrov, Ivashka, Sonego, Rune, Van Rijthoven), as this is the quarter of death, and their reward for winning their quarter is a likely SF matchup with Sinner. Dimitrov did not play last year and is playing in his home tournament, but he has a tough 2R match against Ivashka whom he holds a 1-1 H2H against. Sonego is coming off a title win last week and is in great form, but landing in the quarter of death does not bode well for his chances to win another title here.

3rd quarter: This is Musetti’s quarter, and is the weakest quarter. No one else from this quarter has odds below +2200. One caveat to that is Struff is not listed in many futures markets due to being a qualifier. Struff has generally been in bad form this year, but he could salvage his season with a nice run here. Struff is actually on a 5 match win streak right now, winning all 3 of his Davis Cup matches and winning his 2 qualifying matches easily. Keep an eye on Struff.

4th quarter: This is Carreno Busta’s quarter, and there are no serious challengers to him here. Otte is the other seed in this quarter, and he is currently on a 6 match losing streak.

Players to avoid: Basilashvili has been going through domestic violence allegations throughout the year, and more recently dealing with match-fixing allegations. Ever since the match-fixing allegations surfaced he has barely won any matches. It seems the off-court problems are affecting his play, making him un-bettable in futures.

Value picks: Carreno Busta and Struff

It should be Carreno Busta vs Sinner in the finals. Carreno Busta actually has an easier path to the finals, and holds a 2-1 H2H against Sinner. At +512, I like Carreno Busta’s value a lot here. Struff at +2200 is my longshot pick, as he is in the weakest quarter and should finally have his confidence back coming in with a 5 match winning streak. Many books aren’t offering futures odds on Struff yet so you may have to wait until the first round ends to grab Struff futures.