ATP PTD/Futures Preview 10/3- 10/9

ATP Tokyo 500 Preview

Court Type: HARD indoor/outdoor (retractable roof)

Location: Tokyo, Japan

Weather: high of 28 degrees C and sunny for Mon-Tues, high of 17-22 degrees C and rainy/cloudy for rest of the week

Past Results: Tournament was not held the last 2 years due to Covid. In 2019, Djokovic def Millman in the finals. Borna Coric was the #2 seed in 2019, and lost to Taro Daniel in the first round. Kyrgios was the champion in 2016. Raonic was the runner up for 3 consecutive years from 2012-2014 (lost to Nishikori in two of those years)

First round begins Monday 11 am JST (Japan standard time), which is Sunday 10 PM U.S. Eastern Time.

Notable Competitors (odds from Pinnacle):

• (1) Ruud +550
• (2) Norrie W/D Illness
• (3) Fritz +750
• (4) Tiafoe +750
• (5) Kyrgios +275
• (6) De Minaur +900
• (7) Shapovalov +700
• (8) Evans +1500
• (9) Coric +800
• Nakashima (sort of Japanese) +1200
• Nishioka (Japanese) +3000
• Kecmanovic +2800
• McDonald (sort of Asian) +3300

Pick The Draw (PTD) analysis: A pretty well balanced draw here, the books will likely favor the champion to come out of the 3rd quarter with Kyrgios and Fritz. It should be noted that Norrie was supposed to be the #2 seed, but he withdrew with an illness, and due to the timing of his withdrawal, Coric was slotted into the #2 position in the draw as the #9 seed.

1st quarter: Ruud is coming off a tough 3 set loss to Nishioka in Seoul, where Nishioka played some incredible tennis en route to the title. Ruud also had trouble with Nicolas Jarry, who had an incredible serving performance but lost in 3 sets due to some inspired play from Ruud. Both of these matches are examples of players stepping up and playing at their highest level against a top player, it wasn’t so much a lack of form from Ruud. With that said, Ruud looks vulnerable, and if some of his matches end up indoors, his worst surfaces seem to be grass and indoor hard. He has a likely meeting with de Minaur or McDonald in the QF. De Minaur and McDonald both excel on indoor hard courts.

2nd quarter: This quarter features: Tiafoe, Taro Daniel, Nishioka, Kecmanovic, Evans. Tiafoe should be favored to come out of this quarter, but there is no real favorite here. The two biggest home favorites in Daniel and Nishioka are here. If Daniel beats Zapata Miralles, Tiafoe will have a tough 2R match against Daniel where he will likely be against the crowd (may not be a huge factor because the Japanese crowd is generally very respectful). Nishioka is coming off a title in Seoul and his reward is a first round match with a well rested Kecmanovic. If he wins there, he likely gets a well rested Dan Evans. Much has been said of Nishioka’s mastery of Evans with their 6-0 H2H in favor of Nishioka. Some have suggested that Evans should refer to Nishioka as Nishidaddy. Others have made bold predictions that Nishidaddy will end 2023 with a 19-0 H2H against Evans and become the most lopsided rivalry of all time. Personally, I would love nothing less than for Dan Evans to face his Nishidaddy for a second straight week, just to watch his belief at the start of the match inevitably devolve into a reluctant resignation that Nishioka is in fact still his daddy. In any case, we can’t forget that Kecmanovic is here, and is a good player, and very well might beat both of them.

3rd quarter: This quarter should feature a Clash of Titans, Kyrgios vs Fritz, in the quarterfinals. With that said, last time I predicted a Clash of Titans involving Fritz, Fritz lost in the first round to Holt, and Botic lost to Moutet. Both Fritz and Kyrgios have tricky first round matches against Tseng and Duckworth followed by a less tricky second round. Tseng is in the running for a spot in the ATP Next Gen Finals. Duckworth has been notching good wins in challengers. Fritz got some good tennis in during Davis cup and Laver cup after an early USO exit. Meanwhile, Kyrgios has been off the court, spending his time penning love letters, feuding with Bernard Tomic on social media, and challenging Alcaraz to an exhibition match in Spain. With that said, with the amount of tennis Kyrgios has played in the last few months, some time off probably does him some good. He is perfectly capable of showing up and winning after a long layoff.

4th quarter: This is a fascinating quarter. #2 seed Norrie’s withdrawal caused Coric to take his spot as the #9 seed. From this spot in the draw, Coric can wreck havoc on the bottom side. He owns favorable H2Hs against all of the other seeds in this half: Shapovalov, Kyrgios, and Fritz. Shapovalov is the other seed in his quarter, so let’s talk about El Shapo for a moment. Shapo is coming off a finals run in Seoul where he lost an incredibly tight 2 set match to Nishioka. Shapo did not have a difficult time getting to the finals, and looked completely fresh in the final. He lost in true Shapo fashion, going toe to toe with Nishioka until it got tight at the end of the set, and then losing on boneheaded errors. During his runner-up speech, Shapo said “it’s my first time here in Korea, I didn’t realize so many of you like me!” Shapo was genuinely baffled by getting so much crowd support in Korea. What am I trying to say? Shapo is not fatigued, and despite losing in the final, his head and game are in a good place. Now, back to Coric. Coric has probably the toughest early rounds of any seeded player, with Kokkinakis first round, and Nakashima 2R (if Nakashima beats Mochizuki), and then a likely matchup with Shapo in the QF. There’s no easy matches for Coric here, but he is no stranger to tough draws, having beaten 4 top 10 players en route to winning the Cincinnati Masters. Nakashima in theory is an easier 2R than rafa, but Coric might just struggle with Nakashima more than Rafa. Nakashima has a Japanese sounding name and is Japanese looking so he’ll probably get home support against Coric too. But against Mochizuki, Nakashima will be the outsider. Mochizuki is a fascinating player, a teenage sensation and former junior Wimbledon champ who hails from just across the river in Kawasaki. He plays an exciting brand of tennis, when he gets the ball in play. He is incredibly quick and has lightning quick hands + feathery touch at net, to go with a beautiful backhand. Unfortunately he has a serve which would be bad on the WTA, a more unreliable forehand than Mikael Ymer, and the decision making of Shapo. So yes, you just read all of this about Mochizuki just to watch him lose 6-2 6-2 to Nakashima.

Futures Considerations: Kyrgios is the man to beat here. But, Kyrgios has losing H2H against Fritz, Coric, and Shapo, although it is a very small sample size. Ruud is the man to beat in the top half, but Ruud is looking vulnerable after last week in Seoul. Regarding Nishioka futures, Nishioka played much more tennis en route to the Seoul finals than Shapo, so fatigue may start to become a factor if he makes another deep run. Coric played fairly well at Davis Cup. Fritz and de Minaur are both coming off solid Davis Cup and Laver Cup performances. Tiafoe followed up his USO SF run with a win over Tsitsipas at Laver Cup and lost to Djokovic.

Players to avoid: There are no obvious players to avoid from what I can see

Value picks: Every notable competitor has a fair shot at winning, which makes it almost impossible to find value here. If I had to make a pick, I would pick de Minaur from the top half and Shapo from the bottom half, with de Minaur winning the tournament.

ATP Nur-Sultan 500 Preview

Court Type: HARD indoor

Location: Astana, Kazakhastan

Weather: indoor event

Past Results: Kwon defeated Duckworth in the finals in 2021. This tournament was a 250 event for the past 2 years, and was just elevated to a 500 this year to replace the St. Petersburg Open. Bublik and Ivashka were the two other semifinalists. Karatsev was the #1 seed and lost to Ruusuvuori in the 2nd round.

Notable Competitors (odds from Pinnacle):

• Djokovic (4) +155
• Alcaraz (1) +275
• Medvedev (2) +330
• Tsitsipas (3) +750
• Rublev (5) +1500
• Hurkacz (7) +1750
• Auger Alliasime (8) +2000
• Norrie (6) W/D Covid
• Khachanov +4000
• Cilic (9) +4000
• Van de Zandschulp +5000
• Bublik (Kazakh) +5000
• Bautista Agut +5000
• Ruusuvuori +6600
• Karatsev +6600
• Davidovich Fokina +6600
• Cressy +6600
• Wawrinka +8000
• Rune +8000
• Huesler +20000
• Cerundolo +25000

Pick The Draw (PTD) analysis: This is basically a Masters level field for a 500 event. Almost the entire field is a “notable competitor,” which means this field is very deep with quality players, and we could see several seeds going down in the first two rounds.

1st quarter: The seeds are Alcaraz and Rublev. Alcaraz is rewarded with a 1R matchup with Rune, one of his top Next Next Gen rivals, and a finalist in Seoul last week who is finally showing great form on hard courts. Alcaraz then gets a resurgent Wawrinka or tricky lefty Mannarino in round 2. Meanwhile, Rublev has an easier path to his potential third round matchup with Alcaraz, and one has to think Rublev is extremely motivated after his disappointing loss to Tiafoe in the US Open. Alcaraz and Rublev have previously never played each other.

2nd quarter: The seeds are Tsitsipas and Hurkacz. Tsitsipas can lose to anyone these days, but he is still the favorite (an unreliable one) to win this quarter. Hurkacz can also lose to anyone, and a first round matchup with Francisco Cerundolo is not reassuring at all. Bublik as the home favorite is a dangerous floater in this section, and likely awaits Hurkacz in the second round. It should also be noted that Hurkacz has a much worse record on indoor hard than outdoor hard courts. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas is very good on indoor hard, and Bublik excels on indoor hard courts.

3rd quarter: The seeds are Djokovic and Cilic. We could potentially get a Tel Aviv finals rematch between Djokovic and Cilic in the third round. Or, we could get a Djokovic vs Khachanov who has previously beaten him on indoor hard. Or, we could get our first ever Djokovic vs Cressy matchup. I don’t think Otte makes the third round here. Djokovic likely faces Botic Van de Zandschulp in the second round, and they have never played, but one has to like Djokovic’s chances there. Although there are players who pose a danger to Djokovic in this quarter, Djokovic’s form was good enough last week that it’s hard to bet against him unless his fitness deteriorates.

4th quarter: The seeds are Medvedev and Auger Alliasime. Felix has a tough first round against Bautista Agut, against whom he holds a 3-1 H2H. However, his only loss did come on indoor hard courts. Felix likely gets Davidovich Fokina in the second round, but Fokina seems to struggle on indoor hard courts. Medvedev gets Ruusuvuori or Huesler in 2R, who surprisingly won ATP Sofia last week. Although it’s hard to see Huesler making a deep run, his potential matchup with Medvedev comes early enough in the tournament where he may be fit enough to pose a challenge to Medvedev. For the 3R, Medvedev owns a 4-0 H2H against Felix, but their last match at AO this year went 5 sets, and Felix is coming in confident after beating Djokovic at Laver Cup.

Futures Considerations: Of the top 4 seeds, Djokovic has the easiest quarter, and this is reflected in the outright markets. However, a potential SF matchup against Medvedev or Auger Alliasime features two players who are fully capable of beating him. The top half is Alcaraz’s to lose, but he has the toughest draw of the top 4 seeds. If he is not in his USO form, we could see an early exit from Alcaraz. Djokovic, Tsitsipas, and Rublev have the easiest first two rounds of the seeded players.

Players to avoid: Djokovic +155. In my opinion, the odds are just not worth it here on Djokovic coming straight off a title win in Tel Aviv. Potential fatigue from back to back weeks, combined with the fact that there’s a lot of guys in this draw that can beat him, make Djokovic a player to avoid buying outright here.

Value picks: Tsitsipas +750. Tsitsipas to win his quarter may also be a good bet (don’t have odds on that yet). Tsitsipas owns a 6-2 H2H against Hurkacz, and is 4-0 on indoor hard courts. Tsitsipas is 2-0 H2H vs Bublik. He has Kukushkin 1R and Shevchenko/Nardi 2R. Tsitsipas owns a 5-4 H2H against Rublev, 0-3 H2H against Alcaraz, 2-6 H2H vs Djokovic, 3-7 H2H vs Medvedev, and 5-3 H2H vs Auger Alliasime. Of all of the seeds, Tsitsipas has the most to prove in this tournament, after losing to Galan in the USO and losing to Tiafoe at Laver Cup. A motivated and hungry Tsitsipas with a decent draw may surprise us this week.