ATP PTD/Futures Preview 10/10 - 10/16

Last week’s bets

ATP Tokyo

• de Minaur to win his quarter: lost 1R
• Shapovalov to win his quarter: won his quarter, lost in SF

ATP Nur Sultan

• Tsitsipas to win his quarter: won his quarter
• Tsitsipas to win outright: lost in F to Djokovic
• avoid Djokovic +155: def Tsitsipas in the final

Overall not a bad week, totally missed on de Minaur, but hit on Shapovalov and Tsitsipas to win their quarters. Looked silly avoiding Djokovic, but in my defense, it looked like Medvedev might beat him in the SF before he withdrew. And then unfortunately Tsitsipas was helpless against Djokovic in the finals.

ATP Florence 250 Preview

Court Type: HARD indoor

Location: Florence, Italy

Weather: indoor event

Past Results: This tournament was last played in 1994. It was reinstated this year with a one year license due to the cancellation of several events in China

Notable Competitors (odds from Draftkings):

• Berrettini (2) (Italian) +300
• Auger Aliassime (1) +350
• Cressy (4) +900
• Sonego (Italian) +1000
• Bublik (7) +1000
• Brooksby (6) +1100
• Nakashima (8) +1200
• Musetti (3) (Italian) +2000
• Goffin +2000
• Wolf +2200
• McDonald +2800
• Karatsev (5) +5000
• Ymer +5000
• Van Rijthoven +5000

Pick The Draw (PTD) analysis: This is a pretty well balanced draw, with Musetti’s quarter being the most open. There is no clear favorite in this tournament, with Berrettini and Auger Aliassime being the two frontrunners as the top 2 seeds.

1st quarter: The seeds are Auger Aliassime and Nakashima. Felix showed flashes of greatness in Davis Cup and Laver Cup, beating both Alcaraz and Djokovic. However, he also lost to Kwon and Berrettini. His form seems to be slightly lower in non-team events, losing his most recent match in straight sets to Bautista Agut. Nakashima is in good form, having recently won the San Diego 250 event. He has a tricky match against Gasquet in the first round, but if he gets through that, we should see a Felix vs Nakashima quarterfinal. These two have never played before, but Felix should be the one to come out of this quarter.

2nd quarter: The seeds are Musetti and Brooksby. Unseeded Sonego is actually the favorite to come out of this quarter as he has been in the best form. Sonego and Musetti likely face off in the second round. Brooksby has a tough path, with McDonald first round, and likely Goffin second round. This quarter is wide open.

3rd quarter: The seeds are Bublik and Cressy. Both Bublik and Cressy have tough potential second round matches. Bublik likely faces Moutet, who has shown good form on hard courts, recently beating Van de Zandschulp at the US Open. Cressy likely faces Wolf, who has been inconsistent but is the type of guy who could give Cressy trouble. If Bublik and Cressy both make the quarterfinals, it’s basically a toss up. Cressy won their only previous matchup on grass, but Bublik is in slightly better form.

4th quarter: The seeds are Berrettini and Karatsev. Karatsev has been bad recently, and will be lucky to make it out of the first round. Berrettini is the home favorite here; he hasn’t played any tournaments since the US Open but won all 4 of his Davis Cup/Laver Cup matches including wins against Coric and Auger Aliassime. Berrettini is the clear favorite in this quarter, but watch out for Van Rijthoven. If Van Rijthoven beats Ymer in the first round, he has a game which matches up well against Berrettini, with a similar big serve + power game, but more firepower on his backhand wing.

Futures Considerations: If the top 2 seeds make the finals, Berrettini is the home favorite and also owns a 4-1 H2H against Felix. If Brooksby makes the semifinals, he won his only match with Felix convincingly in straight sets. Musetti also owns a 2-1 H2H against Felix, but all of those were on clay. Playing on indoor hard courts will give Felix the advantage. For Berrettini’s potential semifinal match, he lost his only tour level match to Bublik, and has never played Cressy, although Cressy should be a tough matchup for him. When it comes to betting the top 2 seeds, Felix is liable to play down to his opponent’s level and lose at any time. Berrettini is in better form, but he has potentially very dangerous QF and SF matchups.

Players to avoid: Karatsev (5)

Value picks: Van Rijthoven quarter winner +900, outright +5000. There is tremendous value in Van Rijthoven here, as his upside is way higher than anyone else at the +5000 level (Fucsovics, Carballes Baena, Galan, Karatsev, Ymer). Van Rijthoven is the slight underdog against Ymer in his first round, which is why you’re getting such a longshot price. However, if Van Rijthoven is able to overcome Ymer, this will be an indication that his form is good enough to run the table. Moreover, if you wait until after the first round to bet on him, the longshot price will be gone. IF Ymer beats Van Rijthoven, I think Berrettini becomes the value pick, and I don’t think you lose much value (if any) by waiting until the first round to bet on Berrettini.

ATP Gijon 250 Preview

Court Type: HARD indoor

Location: Gijon, Spain

Weather: indoor event

Past Results: This is the first edition of this tournament. It was introduced this year with a one year license due to the cancellation of several events in China

Notable Competitors (odds from Draftkings):

• Rublev (1) +300
• Carreno Busta (Spanish) (2) +800
• Bautista Agut (Spanish) (3) +800
• Korda +1100
• Thiem +1100
• Baez (7) +1100
• Ivashka +1100
• Paul (5) +1200
• Davidovich Fokina (Spanish) (6) +1200
• Murray +1400
• Bonzi +1800
• Giron +2000
• Rinderknech +2000
• Sousa +2000
• Mannarino W/D
• Lestienne +3500
• Cerundolo (4) +3500
• Ramos Vinolas (Spanish) +5000
• Munar (Spanish) +6500

Pick The Draw (PTD) analysis: The main storyline here is this is Rublev’s tournament to lose. A secondary storyline is this is a good chance for our old friends Thiem and Murray to pick up some points.

1st quarter: The seeds are Rublev and Paul. Ivashka is also in this quarter. Tough draw for Paul and Ivashka, as they would be one of the favorites to come out of 2nd or 3rd quarter. Instead, Ivashka faces Rublev if he wins his first round. Paul should get to the quarterfinals to face Rublev, but Rublev has been good enough lately where you expect him to come out of this quarter.

2nd quarter: The seeds are Cerundolo and Ramos Vinolas. However, Thiem has to be the favorite to come out of this quarter. This is the weakest section of the draw, with Cerundolo (+3500) and Ramos Vinolas (+5000) given almost no chance by the futures market to win outright despite being seeds. Ramos Vinolas is actually the underdog in his 1R match against Giron. Meanwhile, Thiem is sitting at +1100, largely thanks to this favorable draw, and is the favorite to come out of this quarter.

3rd quarter: The seeds are Bautista Agut and Davidovich Fokina. Murray is a dangerous floater in this quarter, and faces off against Davidovich Fokina in the first round. Our DegensClub analyst angrybirdstar provided evidence a little while back that Davidovich Fokina has been the unluckiest guy on tour in terms of tough draws. And it seems his tough luck continues here, with a toss up match against Murray. Bautista Agut has himself a tough opening match himself, facing the winner of Korda/Munar. Although Korda is the solid favorite here, Munar has been playing some good tennis lately and is capable of pulling that upset. No one in this form is the clear favorite and it seems wide open.

4th quarter: The seeds are Carreno Busta and Baez. Carreno Busta is coming off what seemed like a bad loss to Huesler, but then Huesler went on to win the tournament, so in hindsight it doesn’t look so bad. Carreno Busta likely faces Bonzi in his opening match. Carreno Busta’s form here is somewhat of a mystery, but this is his quarter to lose, and was made slightly more straightforward with the withdrawal of Mannarino. Baez faces off against an in-form Lestienne in the first round as a solid underdog. With Carreno Busta likely facing Bonzi 2R and Lestienne QF, he is facing players he should beat, but are not easy opponents, and should be a good test of his form.

Futures Considerations: If Rublev wins his quarter, he is playing at a level where he should win the whole thing, unless he has to expend a tremendous amount of energy to get through his quarter. Although Thiem is the favorite to win his quarter, I’m still not convinced his level / fitness is high enough to win the whole tournament. 3rd quarter has a number of interesting players who could go on a run (Korda, Bautista Agut, Davidovich Fokina, Murray), but the fact that the quarter is so competitive makes it hard to pick any of them as a quarter winner or outright winner. Carreno Busta should win 4th quarter but I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking Lestienne +3500.

Players to avoid: Baez (4) +1100. The Baez odds here are a head-scratcher, and I wouldn’t touch it with a 5 foot 7 inch pole.

Value picks: Rublev outright +300. Rublev is the clear favorite in decent form and these conditions suit his game. His H2H record against potential opponents is also favorable

2R H2H: Rublev vs Ivashka 2-0

QF H2H: Rublev vs Paul 3-1

SF H2H: Rublev vs Thiem 3-2

F H2H:

• Rublev vs Carreno Busta 2-0
• Rublev vs Bautista Agut 3-2
• Rublev vs Murray 1-1 (Murray did beat Rublev 6-3, 6-0, 6-2 at AO 2017)
• Rublev vs Davidovich Fokina 1-0
• Rublev vs Korda 1-0