DegensClub
Gillionalysis Feb 07, 2023

ATP Monte Carlo Futures Betting Player Notes 4/9 - 4/16

Below are the historical results at Monte Carlo for some of the players who have had notable success here in the past.

Novak Djokovic (1)

Past 5 years

2022:

  • 2R L to Fokina 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1

2021:

  • 2R def Sinner 6-4 6-2;
  • 3R L to Evans 6-4 7-5

2020: no tournament

2019:

  • 2R def Kohlschreiber 6-3 4-6 6-4;
  • 3R def Fritz 6-3 6-0;
  • QF L to Medvedev 6-3 4-6 6-2

2018:

  • 1R def Lajovic 6-0 6-1;
  • 2R def Coric 7-6(2) 7-5;
  • 3R L to Thiem 6-7(2) 6-2 6-3

Player notes

Hasn’t played a match since losing to Medvedev 6-4 6-4 at Dubai over a month ago. First matches on clay this year. Tennisabstract ELO model predictor gives Djokovic a 47.5% chance to win his quarter and 21.1% chance to win outright.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (2)

Past 5 years

2022:

  • 2R def Fognini 6-3 6-0;
  • 3R def Djere 7-5 7-6(1);
  • QF def Schwartzman 6-2 6-7(3) 6-4;
  • SF def Zverev 6-4 6-2;
  • F def Fokina 6-4 6-7(2) 6-3

2021:

  • 2R def Karatsev 6-3 6-4;
  • 3R def Garin 6-3 6-4;
  • QF def Fokina 7-5 (ret);
  • SF def Evans 5-7 6-3 6-4;
  • F def Rublev 6-3 6-3

2020: no tournament

2019:

  • 2R def Kukushkin 6-3 7-5;
  • 3R L to Medvedev 6-2 1-6 6-4

2018:

  • 1R def Shapovalov 6-3 6-4;
  • 2R L to Goffin 7-6(4) 7-5

Player notes

Tsitsipas has been nursing a shoulder injury for the past month, and has been noticeably unable to swing normally on his one handed backhand. Instead of skipping the Sunshine Double he tried to play through it. Hard to imagine his shoulder is fully recovered after trying to play through it. Tennisabstract ELO model predictor gives him a 55.9% chance to win his quarter and 23.0% chance to win outright. I assume his shoulder injury is not really factored into these numbers though.

Medvedev (3)

Past 5 years

2022: DNP

2021: DNP

2020: no tournament

2019:

  • 1R def Joao Sousa 6-1 6-1;
  • 2R def Albot 6-1 6-2;
  • 3R def Tsitsipas 6-2 1-6 6-4;
  • QF def Djokovic 6-3 4-6 6-2
  • SF L to Lajovic 7-5 6-1

2018:

  • 1R def Fucsovics 6-7(4) 6-2 7-5;
  • 2R L to Nishikori 7-5 6-2

Player notes

Medvedev got to the finals of both Indian Wells and Miami, losing to Alcaraz at Indian Wells and beating Sinner at Miami. Medvedev has basically played nonstop tennis since Rotterdam (Feb 13) after getting bounced early at AO, and has only lost 1 match in that stretch. He has skipped Monte Carlo the last two years but interestingly has decided to play this year. Medvedev actually did quite well here in 2019, and if he decides he wants to win this tournament, he may do it. But motivation and fatigue is certainly a concern here. Tennisabstract ELO model predictor gives Medvedev a 23.8% chance to win his quarter and 4.4% chance to win outright

Ruud (4)

Past 5 years

2022:

  • 2R def Rune 7-6(5) 7-5;
  • 3R L to Dimitrov 6-3 7-5

2021:

  • 1R def Rune 6-2 6-1;
  • 2R def Schwartzman 6-3 6-3;
  • 3R def Carreno Busta 7-6(4) 5-7 7-5;
  • QF def Fognini 6-4 6-3;
  • SF L to Rublev 6-3 7-5

2020: no tournament

2019: DNP

2018: DNP

Player notes

Tennisabstract ELO model predictor gives Ruud a 32.4% chance to win his quarter and 7.6% chance to win outright.

Rublev (5)

Past 5 years

2022:

  • 2R def de Minaur 2-6 6-1 6-4
  • 3R L to Sinner 5-7 6-1 6-3

2021:

  • 2R def Caruso 6-3 6-2
  • 3R def Bautista Agut 7-6(2) 5-7 6-3
  • QF def Nadal 6-2 4-6 6-2
  • SF def Ruud 6-4 6-3
  • F L to Tsitsipas 6-3 6-3

2020: no tournament

2019:

  • 1R L to Fognini 4-6 7-5 6-4

2018:

  • 1R def Haase 7-6(7) 2-6 6-5
  • 2R L to Thiem 5-7 7-5 7-5

Player notes

Tennisabstract ELO model predictor gives Rublev a 28.7% chance to win his quarter and 5.7% chance to win outright.

Goffin

Past 5 years

2022:

  • 1R def Lehecka 6-4 6-3
  • 2R def Evans 7-6(5) 6-2
  • 3R L to Fokina 6-4 6-1

2021:

  • 1R def Cilic 6-4 3-6 6-0
  • 2R def Cecchinato 6-4 6-0
  • 3R def Zverev 6-4 7-6(7)
  • QF L to Evans 5-7 6-3 6-4

2020: no tournament

2019:

  • 1R def Andreozzi 6-1 6-4
  • 2R L to Lajovic 6-3 6-4

2018:

  • 2R def Tsitsipas 7-6(4) 7-5
  • 3R def Bautista Agut 6-4 7-5
  • QF L to Dimitrov 6-4 7-6(5)

Player notes

Tennisabstract ELO model predictor gives Goffin a 52.9% chance to win his 1R match against Schwartzman, a 1.5% chance to win his quarter, and 0.2% chance to win outright.

Dimitrov

Past 5 years

2022:

  • 1R def Basilashvili 6-3 2-0 (Ret)
  • 2R def Lajovic 4-6 6-3 6-2
  • 3R def Ruud 6-3 7-5
  • QF def Hurkacz 6-4 3-6 7-6(2)
  • SF L to Fokina 6-4 6-7(2) 6-3

2021:

  • 1R def Struff 6-3 6-4
  • 2R def Chardy 7-6(3) 6-4
  • 3R L to Nadal 6-1 6-1

2020: no tournament

2019:

  • 1R def Berrettini 7-5 6-4
  • 2R def Struff 7-6(2) 6-4
  • 3R L to Nadal 6-4 6-1

2018:

  • 2R def Herbert 3-6 6-2 6-4
  • 3R def Kohlschreiber 4-6 6-3 6-4
  • QF def Goffin 6-4 7-6(5)
  • SF L to Nadal 6-4 6-1

Player notes

Tennisabstract ELO model predictor gives Dimitrov a 9.2% chance to win his quarter and 1.3% chance to win outright.

The Others

Sinner: In 2022, Sinner made the QF and lost to Zverev in a tight 3 setter. He lost to Djokovic in the 2R in 2021.

Schwartzman: In 2022, beat Khachanov, Fucsovics, and Musetti before losing to Tsitsipas in 3 in the QF. He lost to Ruud in his first match in 2021, lost to Fritz in the 2R in 2019, and lost to Gasquet 6-2 6-1 in the 2R in 2018.

Zverev: Made SF twice, lost 2018 SF to Nishikori 3-6 6-3 6-4, lost 2022 SF to Tsitsipas 6-4 6-2. Has lost early to Goffin and Fognini the other 2 years.

Evans: Had a run to the SF in 2021 including wins over Lajovic, Hurkacz, Djokovic, and Goffin, but ended up losing the SF to Tsitsipas 6-2 6-1.

Fokina: 8-2 record at Monte Carlo including a finals run last year, and has only ever lost to Tsitsipas here. With that said, he had a minor thigh strain last match against Cecchinato, so his health is a question mark coming into a tough 1R match against Khachanov.

Lajovic: lost to Djokovic 6-0 6-1 in 2018. Made the finals in 2019 beating Jaziri, Goffin, Thiem, Sonego, Medvedev, and then losing to Fognini in the final. Lost to Evans 1R in 2021. In 2022, beat Kraj 1R before losing to Dimitrov 2R. My suspicion is his one handed backhand plays well here on the slow clay.

What is everyone’s thoughts? Anything you disagree with, anything to add? Stop by the DegensClub discord to discuss! Also feel free to participate in DegensClub’s Pick the Draw and Odds Competitions to test your betting ability against other degens.

Top