ATP Basel Futures Predictions 10/24-10/30

ATP Basel 500 Preview

Court Type: HARD indoor

Location: Basel, Switzerland

Weather: indoor event

Past Results: This tournament was last played pre-pandemic in 2019. Roger Federer beat de Minaur in the finals in 2019. Roger Federer is a 10 time champion at this event.

Pick The Draw (PTD) analysis: Many competitors here are coming off tournament wins or deep runs next week, and next week is Paris Masters. There is definitely potential value here in mid-tier futures, as the top-tier guys might treat this as a tune up for Paris (if they even show up).

1st quarter pick: Carreno Busta +350 (odds from Draftkings)

• Alcaraz +125
• Carreno Busta +350
• Draper +600
• Van de Zandschulp +700
• Cressy +700
• Mannarino +1200
• Stricker +1800
• Baez +2200

BEWARE OF BETTING ALCARAZ FUTURES! This is basically a tune-up for him before Paris, and he is noticeably worse against lefties than righties. He draws powerful lefty Jack Draper in the first round, where Draper is almost priced to win at +180. Alcaraz has a possible matchup with another tricky lefty Mannarino in the second round. I’m staying away from Alcaraz here, and betting Carreno Busta, who has an easier path to the quarterfinals and plays well against lefties so he should beat Draper or Mannarino if one of them upsets Alcaraz. If Alcaraz makes it to the quarterfinals though he probably just wins the whole tournament, so if I’m betting Alcaraz futures I’m taking him to win outright instead of the quarter. In terms of value I like PCB to win this quarter more.

2nd quarter pick: Kecmanovic +650

• Auger Aliassime +150
• Musetti +350
• Bublik +500
• Kecmanovic +650
• Davidovich Fokina +1000
• Huesler +1600
• Karatsev +1600
• Ramos Vinolas +2200

This looks like a good quarter to take a non-favorite. Felix and Musetti are both coming off tournament wins last week and we don’t even know if they will show up. Huesler is inconsistent but his peak level is good enough to win this quarter; with that said he has Felix first round, which is one or two rounds earlier than I’d want to be fading Felix. With that said, Huesler is Swiss and will have the home crowd with him, and is capable of beating Felix. I like Kecmanovic here because he plays Fokina 1R who is not a great indoor hard court player, and then he faces the winner of Felix/Huesler, and I believe he can beat either of them. Kecmanovic actually owns a 2-1 H2H over Felix. Bublik is bettable too, but he is also a flight risk, and he’s facing Karatsev 1R who seems like he is starting to come around.

3rd quarter pick: de Minaur +400

• Cilic +250
• De Minaur +400
• Rune +550
• Brooksby +600
• Humbert +650
• McDonald +900
• Rinderknech +1100
• Molcan +1200

De Minaur gets his chance at revenge against Rune in the first round (if Rune even shows up after winning a tournament last week). De Minaur then likely gets Brooksby, and I like de Minaur in this matchup. Cilic seems to be a safe pick in this quarter, but I’m hesitant to overlook Rinderknech who is in good form and matches up pretty evenly with Cilic. We already know de Minaur is in pretty good form from last week, while Cilic’s form and motivation here are a bit more of an unknown. If we get de Minaur vs Cilic in the QF, the H2H is 2-1 for Cilic but all three of those matches went the distance. So I’ll take my chances with de Minaur here, who I’m more confident in to make the QF.

4th quarter pick: Bautista Agut +350

• Ruud +200
• Bautista Agut +350
• Nakashima +500
• Murray +600
• Goffin +1000
• Wawrinka +1000
• Safiullin +1400
• Djere +1800

With Ruud vs Wawrinka 1R, I’m staying away from both of their futures. Wawrinka will have a massive home court advantage here and is very capable of beating Ruud who is in questionable form. The winner of that match faces the winner of Goffin/Nakashima. That little section is loaded, which makes it hard to pick any one of those 4. Meanwhile, Bautista Agut is a favorite to make the QF, as the clear favorite over Djere, and then also the favorite over Murray/Safiullin. As much as I’d like to see Murray win this quarter, Bautista Agut beat him 6-0 6-1 last time, and I think Bautista Agut may be a matchup problem for him at this stage of his career. With that said, don’t count out Wawrinka, an inspired Wawrinka at home is certainly capable of blasting through this quarter too, but he has a very tough road.

Outright pick: I’m actually not making an outright pick yet, I’m going to wait and see how the first round plays out and then update this section if I see something. For now I’m just going with quarter winner picks.

UPDATE: Alcaraz +240 to win outright (odds from Pinnacle, listed between +200 and +220 at most books)

This update comes right after the conclusion of the first round. Either I’m missing something or this is a no-brainer bet. Alcaraz beat Draper in a thriller, while Cilic and Ruud both lost. In my opinion, Draper was the biggest threat for Alcaraz in this tournament, and after that win, Alcaraz outrights only dropped from around +350 to +240. The other two players in his quarter who scared me from taking Alcaraz were Mannarino and Cressy, and both of them are out. Instead, Alcaraz likely gets Botic and then Carreno Busta, and I like the matchups for Alcaraz in both of these matches. The main concern for Alcaraz is if his motivation and form are high enough after some subpar play following his USO run. With that said, the Basel field is much less threatening than the Vienna field, and the players who might challenge Alcaraz (Felix, Rune, Musetti) are coming off tournament wins last week, so I question if their motivation/fitness is high enough to take down Alcaraz. I did take Carreno Busta to win the 1st quarter before the first round, but I’m taking Alcaraz outright here anyways because it now seems like a no-brainer bet with the way the draw is playing out.