2023 Australian Open Men's Best Futures Bets

In this Australian Open, I really don’t see any reason to pick anyone to win other than Djokovic (-115). As a result, I will be looking into other futures bets for potential value. BetOnline’s Australian Open Futures specials are now out, so I’m going to go through and pick my favorite bets out of these specials. These futures specials include: quarter winners, player stage of elimination, player to reach the finals, and player to win AO without dropping a set. If you are not familiar with BetOnline, it is a sharp offshore book which is not as user friendly as the legal US books these days, but is a valuable source of sharp information alongside other sharp books such as Pinnacle.

Gill’s Best Futures Bets

Zverev Stage of Elimination: 2R +250

Prior to Zverev’s two United Cup appearances, he said “Of course, I’m coming back from injury. I think I’m not going to be playing my absolute best tennis this week but I’m looking forward to being back on the court and I think the team atmosphere will help.”

He clearly did not play his best tennis, losing easily to Lehecka and Fritz in straight sets. We didn’t expect him to show up and play lights out at United Cup, but were these two performances enough to convince us that he’s ready to make a deep AO run? Of course not!

If Zverev had a tough first round match I would be fading him right away. However, the first round is quite favorable to #12 seeded Zverev, facing LL Juan Pablo Varillas in the first round. It gets interesting in the second round, where he faces the winner of Goffin/Lokoli. Assuming Goffin makes it through, I like Goffin a lot in this spot. If it were a comfortable matchup for Zverev, I wouldn’t hesitate to have him going to the 4R, but this is not a comfortable matchup. They have a 2-2 H2H but have never played on hard courts. Goffin has shown himself over the past year to still be a big match player, with a win over Alcaraz and a near win over Nadal on clay.

Zverev to lose in the 4R is also bettable; if he manages to beat Goffin his level should be high enough to beat Schwartzman/Krutykh/Wolf/Thompson in the 3R. But I don’t have any faith in Zverev getting past Fritz in the 4R.

Ruud Stage of Elimination: 3R +400

Here I go disrespecting Ruud again… but to be fair, the books are also not very confident in him making any sort of run. Below are Ruud’s odds for his stage of elimination

• 1st Round +450 (vs Machac)
• 2nd Round +250 (vs Brooksby/O’Connell)
• 3rd Round +400 (vs ADF/Bublik/Struff/Paul)
• 4th Round +400 (vs Berrettini/Murray/Kokkinakkis/Holt/RBA)
• QF +600
• SF +600
• Finals +3300
• Winner +3300

To be honest, I was quite shocked by Ruud’s odds for his 2nd round elimination. Straight disrespect. And a lot of respect to Brooksby, who is playing in conditions which are well suited to his game. Ruud and Brooksby have only played once, on clay, which Ruud won easily. Personally, I’m not sold on Brooksby beating Ruud, I think Ruud matches up well against him and won’t be bothered by his antics. I am much more worried about his 3R opponent, where all 4 of his potential 3R opponents are scary in some way for Ruud. Struff and Bublik bring big serving and a brand of power tennis which is trouble on these fast courts. ADF brings is a shotmaker with an arsenal of various shots and has the ability to outplay Ruud; he’s done it before, beating Ruud in 5 sets at Roland Garros. And Tommy Paul had Ruud on the ropes at the US Open last year, and probably would have won if he wasn’t on his third straight 5 setter.

Tsitsipas to win his quarter +225

Let’s look at Tsitsipas’s potential opponents round by round

• 1R: Halys
• 2R: Hanfmann/Hijikata
• 3R: Van de Zandschulp/Griekspoor/Ivashka/Kotov
• 4R: Sinner/Musetti/Harris/Fucsovics
• QF: Auger Alliasime/Norrie/Coric/Cerundolo

Tsitsipas’s first round almost seems like the most dangerous, as Halys seriously threatened Djokovic the other week and has been serving lights out. I might just bet on Halys to cover the game spread while also betting Tsitsipas to win the quarter. In the 2R and 3R, as much as I am a fan of Botic, I don’t think he can really threaten Tsitsipas. Botic is one of the biggest hitters on tour and is in tremendous shape, but his technique is a bit funky and he often has mental lapses which dig him into deep holes against top players. While I think Botic can hurt Tsitsipas in backhand to backhand exchanges, I think Tsitsipas hurts Botic more in forehand to forehand exchanges, possessing equal power with more precision and consistency. Tsitsipas’s net play is also much more solid, so I find it tough to bet on Botic here.

Looking ahead to 4R, not only are there injury concerns around Sinner, Tsitsipas owns the H2H 4-1. Musetti has some similarities to Tsitsipas in his game, but Tsitsipas is the overall more complete player, which is reflected in a 3-0 H2H in favor of Tsitsipas. Speaking of players who are similar to Tsitsipas, you will have a hard time telling Tsitsipas apart from Lloyd Harris if they play, and the big differentiator between the two is Tsitsipas’s one handed backhand. Harris could be a tricky opponent for Tsitsipas if he is playing at peak form, but we haven’t seen Lloyd Harris at his peak for quite a long time.

Here are Tsitsipas’s H2Hs against his potential seeded QF opponents

• Auger Alliasime 5-3
• Norrie 1-1
• Coric 1-3
• Cerundolo 0-0

FYI, Felix owns a 5-1 H2H over Norrie, so Tsitsipas likely sees Felix here. But… let’s not overlook Coric here, who has a favorable H2H over all the top players in this quarter: Felix, Norrie, and Tsitsipas. Let’s not forget that in Cincinatti last year, Coric beat Felix, Norrie, and Tsitsipas all in a row. Will he do it again? Probably not. Because he has a very tough first and second rounds against Lehecka and then Kwon/Eubanks, all of whom could potentially upset him. So am I scared of Coric here? Yes. But I’m more scared to bet on Coric, and Tsitsipas did just beat Coric at United Cup. Moreover, Tsitsipas has a history of great results at the Australian Open, including a SF run last year, so I’m betting on that to continue.

That’s all for my best bets, here’s a couple honorable mentions which I think are bettable but I’m not personally betting.

Shapovalov to win his quarter +1400

Coric to win his quarter +1400

Djokovic or Nadal to win AO -135

What is everyone’s thoughts? Anything you disagree with, anything to add? Stop by the DegensClub discord to discuss! Also feel free to participate in DegensClub’s Pick the Draw and Odds Competitions to test your betting ability against other degens.