US Open Round 4 "Beanalysis"
Hello everyone! I have made a slight change to my plans, I have decided that I am going to get straight into my own, original writeups, because why not. I figured I’d give you all a taste of my cleverly named, “Beanalysis”. Also, I think I forgot to say this in my introduction, but I will not be doing writeups on the Women’s tour, and that is simply because I haven’t watched, and don’t know enough about most of the players on that tour. Another thing I also forgot to say in my intro, is that I primarily use European odds, despite not being from Europe, so sorry to those who don’t use Euro odds. With that out of the way, enjoy my first ever writeup here!
ATP Singles
Medvedev vs. Kyrgios THIS! THIS IS THE MATCH WE HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR! I don’t know about you guys, but this match is gonna be on my screen for sure. Medvedev of course has been dominating his first three rounds, but Kyrgios is going to be the hardest challenge yet. Medvedev played very well during his match with Wu. I didn’t catch a lot of it, but the parts I did, he was dishing out tough balls left and right. I think Wu played well for his first main draw tournament ever on the tour, and even Federer didn’t win the first ATP tournament he played in. Medvedev definitely needs to turn on the guns here because Kyrgios won’t go down as easy as the other three.
Nick Kyrgios and I have a complicated relationship, every time I think he’ll win, he loses, and every time I say he’ll lose, he wins. Even with that, he’s still one of my favorite players, just because of how interesting he makes the sport. His matches so far have gone well, but definitely not perfect, but I still think they have played a good role in getting him ready for this match. Beating an in-form JJ Wolf in straights as well as he did is no easy task, but it is still nothing compared to the monumental task of Medvedev, but we all know Nick has it in him to take this one the distance. Both players looked very in the zone in their 3rd round matches, and it’ll be a tough battle. I think Medvedev can pull a win off here, solely based on mental aspects, but even that is not for sure because Kyrgios did not look fazed at all in that match with Wolf. It’s tough to call, but if I had to pick one, I’d go with Medvedev in 5 grueling sets.
Carreno Busta vs. Khachanov Everything has seemed to be going according to plan for Pablo to make the quarterfinals here, with De Minaur and Felix going down easier than expected, and Draper getting hushed by an injury, His quarter looks to have opened up a door for him, but never underestimate Karen Khachanov. (But to be honest, I wouldn’t recommend estimating him at all.) I watched Pablo’s entire match, minus part of the first set because of bad internet, and he was incredible. He looked to be back to his Montreal winning self! There was a hiccup when De Minaur leveled his serve up mid match, and Pablo couldn’t adjust in time to have a good chance at breaking, and a couple mistakes took a set off his lead. De Minaur was not looking to great during the match, and his poor serve accuracy killed him in the first two sets, and errors took him out in the third. That’s not to say Pablo wasn’t playing well, though, he was on fire! I think he could definitely go further here.
Jack Draper would’ve been the player to advance here, but an injury took hold when he was up a break in the third set, forcing him to retire. Khachanov’s serve definitely pushed him through the first set, and Jack’s kind of paled in comparison. But Draper was still able to produce a lot of high quality tennis to get the second, and a break in the third. I do think Khachanov’s serve is good, paired with some good shotmaking here and there, he could definitely get a set off Pablo, but I don’t think he can pull off a whole match with the form Pablo is in. PCB in 4
Fokina vs. Berrettini Fokina surprised me by beating Nishioka so easily in round one, and his second and third rounds have been no less impressive, coming back from a set down to beat Fucsovics in 5, and then beating the prodigy from Colombia, Galan, who had just beaten Tsitsipas in a crazy match, and then Jordan Thompson, playing oddly better than normal. Fokina has been stunning this week, but I don’t know if he has it in him to beat Berrettini as well.
Matteo has been composing himself well this week, advancing to week two with little to no resistance, even from a stellar, in-form (or as in-form as he can get) Andy Murray. He has been playing no less than amazing this week, and I fully expect a great match from him. I think his weak backhand can be exploited, and I was surprised Murray didn’t go for it more often. If Fokina can figure that out, and play well enough using that tactic, he could get a set, and be the first really challenging match for Matteo. Still, though, I don’t think I can give the whole match to him. Berrettini in 4.
Moutet vs. Ruud Moutet has been the most surprising player to get to the last 16 here, coming from a loss at qualifying to Yibing Wu, to beating former champion here, Stan Wawrinka, then beating Botic van de Zandschulp who had made it from qualifying to the quarterfinals here last year, and being the only player to take a set off of Medvedev here last year, and then beating Pedro Cachin, who had beaten a seemingly unbeatable Holt in round 2. Moutet is shaping up to be an amazing player on the tour in the next few years.
Casper Ruud has been interesting recently, going from the finals in Roland Garros, to playing poorly on the grass, (it was the golf course training) and then only defending one of his clay court hat trick titles. He proceeded to then start winning again at Montreal Masters, making the semifinals there, and then losing in round 2 the next week to college star Ben Shelton. He has been playing well this week, putting down a Tommy Paul who has had some good weeks recently, as well as upcoming star Tim van Ritjhoven, who beat Medvedev earlier this year to win his first title. He is definitely sporting a good chance to win this match, but Moutet is playing some good tennis. I just don’t think it’s good enough to get past Ruud. Ruud in 3 or an easy 4.
Ivashka vs. Sinner
Ilya winning was no surprise, Musetti just isn’t quite there yet, but I hope he makes it soon! This match should be nice for Sinner because Ivashka, though he beat Hurkacz, did it just on Hurkacz’s impatient errors. Sinner will not make those mistakes and will be able to outmaneuver Ilya at every turn. It was a great run from the Belarusian, and I hope this run gets him back to winning again.
Sinner has been great the entire tournament, just now finishing up against Brandon Nakashima, where he fell an unfortunate set down, and then proceeding to crush him with ease. Someone I know put it very well “It’s impressive how Sinner has started out horrible in each match and then levels up during each match like it’s an episode of dragon ball Z” Thank you for that quite amusing comment Beowulf! It made me audibly laugh, which is rare, I normally laugh in my head. But anyways, I think it’s gotta be Sinner in 3
Cilic vs. Alcaraz Marin Cilic has been phenomenal at the slams this year, beating Rublev to make the 4th round at the Australian Open, beating Medvedev, and Rublev again to make the semis at Roland Garros, and then having a great grass court tournament at Queens Club, topped off by missing Wimbledon due to Covid. This week is also looking good, already making the 4th round, beating a very in form Dan Evans in 4 to get here. But like in the Australian Open, he faces the monumental challenge of Carlos Alcaraz, one of the favorites to make the finals here. Cilic looked very, very fluid in his last match. His shots are very well placed and clean, he played a very good match for the most part. He is very fast on the court, taking more steps when he’s running than I do trying to reach the recommended step count on my health app to look fit. Alcaraz is gonna have to place his shots in a lot more places and angles to get Cilic out of his rhythm. Cilic is able to make rallies long, and that could wear Alcaraz down a little.
Carlos Alcaraz is playing well this week, and he is of course a favorite here, watching his match with Brooksby, I noticed a kind of easiness to him, that may give him a rude awakening against Cilic, he hasn’t really had a difficult matchup yet, and so that might play into Cilic’s favor. Carlos Alcaraz is Carlos Alcaraz, though, and I doubt Cilic can keep the element of surprise up for 3 sets, and Alcaraz will get into form after a set and a half-ish. Alcaraz also has the disadvantage of being less experienced than Cilic. Then again, it’s Carlos Alcaraz. There is quite a lot to digest with this match, and everything is kind of pointing me in the same direction. That direction happens to be Alcaraz in a really tough 4 or 5.
Norrie vs. Rublev Cam Norrie has been playing well this year on the hard courts. The Australian Open was not a good start, but he then made back to back finals, winning at Delray Beach and losing to Rafa Nadal at Acapulco. He had an alright season from there until he made the semifinals at Wimbledon, and he’s not been the same since. He went on to make the final at Los Cabos, beat Alcaraz at Cincinnati, and then cruise to week two here without dropping a set. He has been playing great, and his momentum will be hard to stop
Rublev has had a less than stellar season this year, losing to Marin Cilic at all the slams he has played this year, but his match against Shapovalov was incredible. The way he was able to take the extreme pace generated by Shapovalov for three whole sets was surprising. I loved watching that match. I think Rublev has the tools to make a dent in Cam Norrie. I think if he can put the extreme pace he had in round 3 in the rallies here, he can probably squeeze a set or two out of Norrie. But Norrie is super good recently, and his baseline grind is hard to stop. So it’ll end up being Norrie in the end. Norrie in 4/5
Tiafoe vs. Nadal Frances, both of them, have been playing mediocre this week, so I figured Schwartzman could probably take a set off him, but he surprised me in saving 5 set points to keep Schwartzman locked out. I like Tiafoes playing, and its quite fun to watch, but I’m not sure he can do much to the beast that is Rafael Nadal
Nadal had a bit of trouble starting his car in the first week here, but it seems from his Gasquet match, that he finally got it to stop sputtering, and its starting to run alright, and this match here is where he picks up speed, he will most likely roll a medium to high level Tiafoe and start the real contest for the slam to tie Serena. Nadal in 3.