Metz Semifinals "Beanalysis"
Wawrinka vs. Bublik
Stan. Stan the Man. Good grief man, what is going on, you just randomly came back onto the scene this tournament. As a certain Elvis Presely said, “I can’t help betting on you” That’s not how it goes. Whatever. Me being a recovering “hammering-old-players-out-of-their-prime disorder” patient, this is rough. Anyway, I just really enjoy the way Stan has approached this tournament. It’s about winning, not playing with grace and slamming winners the whole time, sometimes it’s just a matter of letting the other one miss. Stan has made it through this tournament by serving well, and volleying the ball enough to make the other person miss, or not be able to get to the ball. And sometimes, that’s just gotta do. Sometimes, you just can’t be Rafael Nadal. Stan played a great first set of tennis, and had a couple match points here and there in set two, but Ymer finished the set out, and I gave up. And about an hour and a half later, I looked, and Stan won the third set. That is the last outcome I expected. Wow. I know how he did it though, he targeted Ymer’s weak forehand. Once he got fatigued from two whole sets and having to play a third, I thought Ymer would take advantage, but he didn’t. I know Stan is playing at an exceptional level, but this match is gonna come down to one factor, and it’s not that.
Alexander Bublik is the least “Beanalyzed” player left at this tournament still. Wait, no he’s tied with Sonego. Either way, he hasn’t caught my attention much. I know he’s been playing at a consistent level, and I actually expected him to get this far, but I just haven’t noticed him. As I said, he’s at a good level, and his serves are pushing him through. Ironically, I don’t think that will change for this match. I know Bublik hasn’t been the most accurate, and that can theoretically be easily exploited by Stan, but with the state Stan is in, I doubt he can hold it up for the length of a match. Bublik is a good player to bet on making the quarterfinals in these 250s, but he’s just not any higher than that, Rune was a lucky quarterfinal match to have, and now he’s into the semifinals. I hate to say it, but Stan is really struggling with fatigue, playing 2 qualifier matches, and then 3 matches in the main draw, with a total of 3 out of the 5 matches being 3 setters. Bublik playing at the consistent level he’s at right now, he should fly through this match in two sets. Bublik in 2 : (
Sonego vs. Hurkacz
Sonego wowed me this week by beating Karatsev, and then Simon, and then Korda, who I thought would be a real challenge, all in straight sets. The thing I like the most about Sonego is the fact that he can pull a clean shot out of nowhere, and put it where he needs it, that is a good skill to have, especially against an opponent like Hubi. Sonego’s serve is on point and solid. He has some advantages over Hubi, as well as the advantage in the head to head, but I just have this gut feeling that Hubi won’t be playing bad, and I feel like he’s done well this tournament, but something just tells me that I can’t go with Sonego on this one, it’s just one of those things that both players are good, but one just seems to be better that day.
Hubi played a good game against Rinderknech, and I really liked some of the shots, but Hubi is in the same boat as Tiafoe, he’s not flashy, he doesn’t have an attribute that shines above everything else, but he’s just consistently consistent and good, except for those small tournaments this year, I don’t know what happened there. Hubi’s game revolves around waiting on the opponent to give him something to use or just straight lose the point. This is a good tactic to use, and it works with a lot of players, but is Sonego one of those players, I don’t think so, considering their head to head, but then again, I had that gut feeling, and that is just unignorable, so what I’m thinking is going to happen, is that Hubi is going to be playing just a notch better than Sonego, but Sonego can pull out a good stretch of games, and maybe take a set away, but I just have that gut feeling he’s not gonna take this one. In conclusion, Hubert in 3.