"Cream of the Crop" Beanalysis: Toronto Round One
Hello everyone, I have returned from a long hiatus to gift you all with a Beanalysis of the matches in Toronto this year. I’m glad to be back, and hopefully I’ll be able to post writeups more regularly. With this first round, I’m kind of in a time crunch, so I’ll be posting this first little bit and then just adding to it as I finish the others, and hopefully there’s a more full experience tomorrow. Anyway, I hope you all enjoy, and I’ll see you back soon!
ADF v. Wolf
Well, it’s been a while so I guess I should check and see how everyone’s faring on tour… Oh goodness, ADF has been really mediocre it would seem. Little to no performance against decently ranked players, and he hasn’t done much since Wimbledon, and he hasn’t played a professional match on the hard courts since March of this year, so it leaves a lot up to interpretation. Going off of pure speculation here, I’m thinking that he won’t be very prepared to compete here, and he really didn’t get much of a softball first match either. I think if he can find his groove quickly it may be a bit better for him, but it’s gonna take a quick adjustment in my opinion.
JJ Wolf has been faring quite a lot better than ADF in recent times, scoring a semifinals appearance in Atlanta, and a not too horrible showing last week in D.C. Again, just off of pure speculation I think Wolf has more momentum on the hard courts, and I assume he’s going to be a little more prepared for the U.S hard conditions since he’s been playing on them for 2 weeks now. Also looking at his play style, Wolf has a better hard court style and while I enjoy watching ADF, he doesn’t play as good on the hard courts. This just feels like a match that Wolf can win pretty easy to start off his tournament. I’m gonna have to go Wolf in 2, unless ADF can adapt really fast.
Bublik v. Hurkacz
This match is going to be a lot of fun, Bublik has been hyped up a lot this year, and Hurkacz was the runner up here last year, so this is one I might watch if I have the chance. Looking at strictly hard court performances, Bublik has been pretty bad, but in total, he’s done pretty well, beating a decent amount of top-level players, and doing well at a lot of tournaments. One thing I will say is that Bublik doesn’t have a great track record at Masters 1000 tournaments, and he also doesn’t have a good track record against Hurkacz. Bublik is definitely a dark horse at this tournament, and I’ll be interested to see how he performs.
Moving on to our good friend Hubert, I would like to ask him “where have you been???” He has kind of been absent at a lot of stuff, and the stuff he has been at, he’s kind of flopped. I don’t know if it’s like a huge thing, but it seems like it is. I like Hubi playing on hard courts, but he hasn’t fared well enough for me to have trust in him to get through this one with ease. Hubi was incredible at this tournament last year, and I’m thinking without a PCB here to beat him, he could make a run for it this year, but it’s going to take some confidence boosting and an easy first couple rounds. Bublik is not that easy of an opponent though, and I’d say if you’re rooting for the downfall of Hurkacz, this round is the round to do it, because if he gets too much momentum going, there may be no stopping him, because we’ve all seen what he can do in the North American hard courts (Miami 2021 ring a bell?) But anyway, I’m gonna have to make a decision, and I’m thinking the match is going to three sets, but I’m gonna give the advantage to Hubi, simply because he’s been more consistent than Bublik, especially at Masters 1000 tournaments.
Monfils v. Eubanks
Welcome back to the tour Gael! We for sure missed all the antics, or at least I did. I think, while he is a great and experienced player, he might have some trouble with this match. I don’t know how to analyze these round one matches sometimes because there isn’t much for me to work with, and every court and area is different, so most of this is speculation and analyzing patterns in players’ results, but as you might know, there isn’t much results to go off of for Monfils because he has been off of the tour for a while. He did play last week though, and he had some degree of results, beating Bublik, so that’s a good sign for the return of Le Monf! This is the first meeting between these two, but I think their play styles are about the same, utilizing their height to juice their serves and play at the net a lot, which shows blatantly in their results (especially Eubanks’) I really think this one is going to be a lot of fun to watch, and I’m glad we get to see more Monfils now.
Eubanks has been on an interesting tear recently, performing extremely well at some of the bigger tournaments, netting a quarterfinals appearance in Miami this year, and also at Wimbledon, which is super impressive. I think that going off of just plain results, Eubanks shows to be the clear winner here, but I believe this match is a bit deeper than that. Monfils has simply been on the tour longer, and so he knows how to handle newer players, and he also has a similar playstyle to Eubanks, meaning that he can probably analyze the flaws in it rather quickly, and then exploit them to grab an early lead. This match is going to be a blast either way, but I’m probably leaning more towards Monfils, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Eubanks can snag a set in there somewhere.
Paul v. Schwartzman
TOMMY BOY!!! Tommy Paul has been wowing me since forever. Back in 2021, he had a great run at one tournament where he just shredded a bunch of really good seeded players, but this time, he is the seeded player. He also made the semis at AO, so that’s gotta count for something. I’m pretty confident that Tommy Paul is the better player out of these two but it will be interesting to see if Schwartzman can come out with something. The odds are also way in Tommy’s favor from every book, so that should say something.
Diego had to come through qualifying for this tournament, and while he did so with relative ease, I think his first round opponent is just a different breed or hard. Tommy Paul is a fighter, so even if Diego can get an early break, it’ll be hard to defend, especially with Diego’s disadvantage with serving (he’s short.) I hate to say it, but Schwartzman is probably gonna keep slumping for now, but I’m hoping he gets a more favorable draw in the future. But for now, it’s gotta be Paul in 2.
Raonic v. Tiafoe
Milos Raonic???? That’s a name I haven’t heard in a very long time. How long has it been? I haven’t seen him play in a long time. Anyway, looking at his recent matches, it seems he hasn’t played a hard court match in 2 years, and in terms of any matches at all, he’s only played a few grass court matches. In my personal opinion, someone who hasn’t played in that long can’t just come back and stun the number 9 seed, but I have been wrong before.
Tiafoe has had a pedestrian year this year, making some moderately deep runs in some tournaments, and winning a few 250s, but if he’s looking to compete at the USO like he did last year, he has to get it going now. I think he can, he had a decent week last week, and should be well adjusted to the North American hard courts by now, and I think with this relatively easy first round matchup, he should be able to kickstart his week here and maybe make a deeper run than he has at past tournaments this year. This match seems to have only one possibility, and that’s Tiafoe in 2.
de Minaur v. Norrie
This is probably the round one matchup I was most excited about going into this writeup. Two players who are kind of underrated and also whom I like? Of course I’m gonna write about that match. ADM has been looking like 2019 ADM this year, making the finals of quite a few tournaments, and even winning Acapulco. He’s fresh off of a finals run at Los Cabos, beating some hot players like Koepfer and Tommy Paul before falling to Tsitsipas. He seems like he’s at the best price he would get against a player like Norrie, and I’m all for the hype train!
Cam Norrie has played just about nothing this year, playing a single tournament in between FO and Wimbledon, and playing a single tournament between Wimbledon and now. So not much to go off of, but considering the tournament he played was last week, and he lost to a player below 100 ranked, I don’t think he’s in his best form as of right now, and he got probably the worst first round to try and get into form. Like I’ve said before, these first round matches are very hard to judge, because every week is different, but using my normal method of analyzing patterns and form, this one has to go to ADM in 2.
Zverev v. Griekspoor
Well hey would you look at that, Zverev is doing well since we last talked about him, even nabbing a title in there somewhere, given that the title was Hamburg, the last tournament he played at, he should be fired up and ready to go here. From what I’ve seen, he is playing back to his pre-injury level, and it kinda happened quickly, which is nice for Zverev fans. What isn’t nice for Zverev fans, is that he got a pretty crappy first round match.
Tallon Griekspoor is fresh off of wallowing Taylor Fritz in DC last week, before losing in the final to Dan Evans, in fact he had to play a lot of top tier players in that tournament, and he beat a lot of them, so his form doesn’t seem to be a problem here. This match is honestly gonna come down to just pure skill, no quirks or speculation things, both players are hot right now, and no outside issues are really working against either of them right now. So with that being said, who has more skill? Obviously not the person who asked that question because that’s a really silly question, because it’s obviously Zverev. Although I wouldn’t count out Griekspoor making it a fight or maybe getting lucky and snagging a set. My thoughts though, are Zverev in 2.
FAA v. Purcell
This match isn’t too unclear about who’s gonna win, but more of a nod to FAA, who I think is going to do some great things this tournament, if he can get going, I think the hometown crowd can help him push through to some surprising victories. After a decent start to the season, FAA has been floundering through the year, not having won a match in quite some time, before the French Open, which is insane considering how good he is. I know FAA has good mechanics, and since he got a decent round one, I think he can tap back into it and make something of this tournament.
Max Purcell has barely scratched the tour at all this year, and he has had little results. I know there’s always a chance for anyone to do anything, and kicking the favorites while they’re down seems to be a common thing in tennis, but I really can’t see him being able to do that much to Felix, there’s just too much of a level and ranking difference between the two. So congratulations Canada, one of your players might actually win! FAA in 2.