"Cream of the Crop" Beanalysis: Metz Quarterfinals
Wawrinka vs. Ymer
Stan! OH YEAH! That match went the way I predicted. Medvedev was playing at his predicted level, and Stan was definitely easily able to pull a win out here. He’s looking a bit gassed though, considering the fact that he’s played 4 matches in 5 days. That may be the deciding factor on this match. My magic 8 ball continually tells me “Reply Hazy, try again” for this match. Even the all knowing shower thoughts left me in the dark on this one. So here we are, left to make a choice on our own. First of all, I think that those Ruud shirts are magic or something, because the wearer just seems to automatically become a solid player. Wawrinka looked very clean against Medvedev, and he didn’t spray errors, which is what Medvedev feeds on, considering he normally just kinda bashes from the baseline until you screw up. I think Stan knew what he was doing, and he went up to the net a lot more, where he was able to play shots that Medvedev could not even get close to, and that produced winners left and right. Medvedev did not seem to try for a bunch of passing shots either. I know that Wawrinka’s tactic to play up at the net is also a way to preserve energy for the later rounds. I also want to note that if Wawrinka wins this tournament, he will get back into the main draws of 250 events. Wawrinka played a smart match with Medvedev, and he was rewarded with a win. I think he could definitely make a little comeback before he retires, and that would be quite nice, whether or not that comeback starts here, I don’t know, but we will see.
Ymer is a player I haven’t kept much of an eye on as of late, I did a writeup on him for round one here, but that was more to preview Mannarino, but Ymer surprised me. Ymer plays very springy tennis, moving around the ball, putting a bit of a spring into his swing, and just generally playing with everything he has access to. I think that is definitely a good way to play tennis if you have the stamina to keep it up, and Ymer seems to have just that, coming straight from the Davis Cup playing great, to here, besting Mannarino, who is in-form, and then winning another round to make round three. Ymer is the favorite here according to the odds, but those have an odd story. The lines came out, and there was some funny business with some books starting with Ymer at -105 and then also having Wawrinka -105, and then making a complete switch 5 minutes later, putting Ymer at +104. Some places still had this one as a pick’em, but there were still some odd things here and there, the line has since come back down to a pick’em again, and I honestly don’t know what to think. My thoughts were do not put anything on this match. If you want my opinion, though, I think that Wawrinka will struggle against Ymer, because he won’t be able to abuse the other player staying at the baseline by coming to the net because Ymer already goes to the net and doesn’t just let you up there with no issues. I don’t think Wawrinka could beat Ymer in a total baseline rally, and also his fatigue has to be taken into consideration. I think that this all ends up with Ymer winning in 2 or 3, depending on Wawrinka’s fatigue levels. (I hope I’m wrong though.)
Post-Edit Note: WHAT THE? HUBI IS WEARING THE RUUD SHIRT? THIS IS INSANE! Maybe I would’ve changed my mind about Thiem winning if I knew Hubi was sporting the Ruud fit.
Rune vs. Bublik
Holger Rune won?!?!? That’s not normal. Wait, why did Bonzi retire? He seemed fine. Odd. Anyway, the match was going the way of Rune even if Bonzi didn’t retire. I think this win was simply because Rune did better than Bonzi, which was absolutely the last thing that I expected from him. Wacky. Rune was hitting the ball hard enough that Bonzi couldn’t do much to it, he could not do anything but defend. Rune was in control of the whole match, and I’m actually happy that he’s back to his decent form. Maybe the couple wins at the US Open turned things around for him, I think if he keeps this up, he’ll be a contender at these tournaments again. I think Rune has the ability to be a contender here, and maybe even win. If he pushes the ball and just kind of beats the ball back at Bublik without many errors, he’s in a position to win.
Bublik is the only player still at this tournament that I have yet to do a writeup on. Alright click play on Bublik highlights…. OK PEOPLE NEVERMIND! RUNE IS NO LONGER A CONTENDER! If you thought Rune could just hit people off the court, you haven’t seen Bublik vs. Norrie Davis Cup highlights, because that Kazakhstanian sure can hit someone off the court. AND CAM NORRIE AT THAT! I know, Rune is good and all, but if Bublik plays like he did at the Davis Cup against Norrie, there’s nobody who can stop him. Bublik just pounds the ball like Japanese Mochi shops pound their Mochi dough. It’s insane to be able to pull that off against anyone, let alone Cam Norrie, who is notorious for just grinding people down and winning. I think that Bublik is able to take home the win with much of anything from the match at the Davis Cup. In my honest opinion, Rune just doesn’t compare, but I wish he could play this well at every tournament and maybe he can win something someday, but for now, I’m gonna have to go with Bublik in 2.