Beanalysis: Toronto Semifinals
WOAH! Hello, what just happened? 3 out of 4 upsets yesterday, yet I still got two predictions right. But according to some, that’s cheating, so now I’m in prison. I’ve also heard that there’s no internet in prison, so I haven’t a clue how I’m managing to write this. Either way, this set of semifinalists is actually really cool because I would be fine with any of them winning. But this isn’t about who I want to win, but about who I think is going to win.
Paul v. Sinner
I wasn’t checking scores during TP’s match last night, so when I did eventually look and see my prediction come true, I was astonished. That’s probably my best prediction so far when doing writeups. Looking to see what went wrong for Carlos, and what went well for Paul, it seems to be a case of unforced errors and double faults. I dont recall if those are counted in the same statistic or not, but still, that’s the main difference. The interesting thing though, is that Alcaraz actually had the better first serve percentage and first serve points won percent. I think it maybe wasn’t quite Paul grinding out and winning as much as Carlos just losing on his own. Luck may have had a tiny little part in the win as well, but it can also be put in that “outside factors that can change from match to match so they don’t mean anything for predictions” category. These categories are getting too specific, maybe I should make them simpler.
Anyway, Jannik Sinner everyone! Look at that he actually got to play his match last night! That’s nice. Monfils was a tough opponent, especially while playing his best tennis this week. I am hoping he can make the most of these next few tournaments, and maybe become a big threat in the near future. Delving into the match stats, it looks very odd. Most stats really point to Monfils winning the match, but I guess Sinner was able to win in a lesser used statistic or something. I guess it’s very good for seeing how well Monfils really has been this week. Anyway, back to Jannik, he is obviously on par with the top, and is playing great tennis. This match could honestly come down to a mental match, because I would put these two in similar skill category (hot take, I know.) But really, looking at these two, they are both really good players and I’d love to see either of them in the final. But I think I’m gonna have to go with Sinner, just because he’s played in (and won) a lot of high leverage matches like this and might have the mental edge. But for sure this one goes to three sets.
Davidovich Fokina v. de Minaur
The face off between the multiple last name players! I’ll bet you didn’t know that Minaur actually is a Romanian word for “miner”. That’s your language fun fact for the day. Despite me only having given you a single one in my entire writeup career, I’m still going to treat it like a daily occurrence to maybe get some nerds to come back for more writeups. Something else nerds like is stats! Luckily I have just that for you all! In ADF’s match yesterday, he blew McDonald out, and was a landslide winner in pretty much every statistic. What this tells me is that ADF is just a lot better than McDonald, and that he should be hot going into this next match.
ADM! ADM! ADM! LET’S GOOO! I’m rooting for him in this match for sure, but I am giving a fair judgment here. In his thriller match against Medvedev, ADM somehow managed to tear down the brick wall, he got an easy version of Meddy I guess. But those serve stats from Medvedev! Goodness, going from upper 60s and lower 70s first serve percentage, all the way down to 50%. Thats crazy. Anyway I dont know if it was a colossal Med meltdown, or if ADM was that good. Given ADM’s good serve stats and good returning as well, I would have to say its a bit of both. I think when making a prediction for this match, I’m just going to assume both are playing the good tennis they’ve both been playing this week, and I think ADM edges ADF out in a tight, but very entertaining 3 setter. Whatever happens today, I’m excited for the final, and I’m excited to write about it! See you all tomorrow!