Oct 29, 2022

Basel Semifinals Beanalysis

Alcaraz vs. Auger Aliassime

Good grief man – Carlos is just hitting everyone off the court it seems. PCB just couldn’t handle it. I really am still not surprised. Carlos looks amazing at this tournament, and I was gonna say something about FAA’s serve possibly challenging Carlos, but holy crap he even has some good returns in there. I really don’t know what this kid can’t do. I think for Carlos, winning this match is going to depend on how he wants to go about this. If he wants to take his chances here, and try to get the title at the expense of form for Paris, he can win this one. If he wants to preserve himself for Paris, I think he won’t take this match as full throttle as the others so far. I don’t know what he’s going to end up doing, but if you ask me, I think he’s gonna gun for the title here. He got a pretty stacked quarter in terms of non seeded players, and since he doesn’t need the points from Paris that bad, I bet he’ll go for the title here.

Auger Aliassime, on the other hand, needs those Paris points. The caveat though, is that if he wins the title here, he could do a little worse at Paris. The last spot to qualify for the Tour FInals is closing fast, and Felix is currently in the position to take it, but Paris has a number of people left that could take the spot from him with a good run. I think Felix kind of wins either way here, as he gets more points from this tournament if he wins, or more points from Paris if he doesn’t. I think he will opt for not trying as hard in this match considering he is coming off of 2 titles, and then he has Paris next week, the title here doesn’t look like his best option. This match, solely based on mental aspects, is going to Carlos, because the two are just hitting their opponents off the court recently, and they are both on fire, so the mental aspect is going to be the biggest factor in this match.

Rune vs. Bautista Agut

Rune is in contention to pull a Djokovic, (winning a 250, and then a 500, despite not playing well, or at all, before that.) I think he can do it if he gets lucky. I don’t doubt Rune can use his incredible touch and searing shots to make the finals here. I do think his serve needs some help, but that is the case with a lot of people, and it’ll only cause real issues if RBA exploits it. Rune exhibits some bad traits in terms of not playing aspects, like composure, and keeping the pace balanced throughout a match. Then again, he’s 19, this is great for a 19 year old. I think Rune pulls through this one using his firing forehand, and his insane touch shots. There is something about the Basel courts that make it seem like everyone is ripping more shots. Maybe they just are taking advantage of the speedy court bounces. Who knows. All I know is Rune has mastered it enough to make it to this point, and I think he can keep it up to make the finals.

Bautista Agut was actually the last player to beat Rune before his title run last week, and deep run so far here. It was interesting to watch RBA and Wawrinka, because they both took the pace slower, and just didn’t hit the ball with that much speed or spin, unless it was specifically a spin shot. RBA really just outdid Wawrinka during those long backhand to backhand rallies, but he was also able to make some good points out of the forehand rallies. Neither player rushed the net when they didn’t need to, and maybe that’s a tactic? Who knows. RBA has less pace, not as much percentage on his shots, Rune does take more of a risk, meaning that it’ll pay off more, as shown throughout the matches thus far. I don’t think anything special is going to happen here, its going to end up being Rune pushing RBA and slapping shots past him speedily. This one should be over relatively quickly. Rune in 2.