Basel Round Two Beanalysis
Alcaraz vs. van de Zandschulp
OK… WHO IN THE WORLD IS IN CHARGE OF COORDINATING PLAYER KITS AT THESE COMPANIES?!?!?!?! ALCARAZ VS. DRAPER IS THE SECOND MATCH THIS WEEK WHERE BOTH PLAYERS ARE WEARING THE SAME SHIRT! COME ON GUYS! Phew, sorry about that outburst. Anyway, that was a high-tension match to say the least. Carlos almost didn’t make it out. I wish Draper could’ve won the match in the end, but that’s just my opinion. I think Alcaraz has all the specs to take Botic out in this round, but, like we have seen recently, nothing is for certain, things could go any which way. Alcaraz puts some incredible shots out, and his game is very well rounded, his serve needs work, and he could also try a little less to chase after balls. I think it probably wears him out, and makes it worse for when he actually needs to get the ball. Carlos’ placement of the ball proves difficult for everyone, but once again, literally anything can happen.
Botic had a good first round match against Mannarino, and it proved to be a difficult one. I think he can make himself a threat to Alcaraz, but with his lower tier return game, he can’t prey on Alcaraz’s main weak spot. I think if you look at their gameplay, Botic has a game that cannot counter the play of Alcaraz. Alcaraz will serve through his games, and then outhit Botic in order to break him, and there’s really just nothing Botic can do about it but hope Alcaraz runs himself down, and then can’t play at a high enough level. This match is definitely going to go to Alcaraz, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was in 2.
Stricker vs. Carreno Busta
Dominic Stricker took out Cressy in an incredible display of strength in round one. I, along with a lot of people, were quite surprised. The match was a bombing of serves. The main difference between the two was that Cressy came up to the net during his service games, while Stricker stayed closer to the baseline. I think that the massive serves that Stricker had in that match makes him quite the threat to Carreno Busta, and this wouldn’t be the first time that a Swissman will take PCB out in the round of 16. I think that Stricker could make so many errors that he can’t take the match, but if he doesn’t, he’s going to be a huge threat.
PCB easily took out Baez, which I assumed was going to happen, but that easily wasn’t as expected. I think it was well deserved, because Baez plays more suited to the clay courts, and PCB has beaten Baez on the clay courts earlier this year. He can push through Stricker, and his shots can hit deep enough to make Stricker’s placement on the court a poor choice. Stricker tends to put himself in what many call “No-man’s land”, and if PCB can push the ball back far enough, it’ll make Stricker uncomfortable, and that is something I know PCB can do. I think the return might pose a problem for PCB, but his rallies can probably make up for that disadvantage. This match is looking rough to call, but I have to pick PCB, just because I don’t know enough about Stricker yet. PCB in 2 or 3.
Auger Aliassime vs. Kecmanovic
FELIX!! I mean, it was expected, but I am excited that I get to see this match. Felix was playing as normal, nothing really special happened, he just played and won using his good strokes, and pacing. Huesler was able to squeeze out a set in a tiebreak, but winning a set in a tiebreak doesn’t really say much besides you were able to hold on enough to scrape out a set. The other two sets went to FAA 6-4 6-4, and that’s how I originally assumed the match would’ve gone, so nothing too huge. FAA is coming off of two tournaments in a row now, so surely he’s going to fatigue a little bit, and that might be something to take into consideration for this match and any matches to come.
Kecmanovic was able to outmaneuver ADF in a tight 3-setter that had everyone on their toes. I honestly have a really good feeling about Kecmanovic this week, and I think he could make something out of this match, and maybe even something big out of the tournament, if he plays it right. Kecmanovic has a really nice forehand stroke, and there’s a lot of pace injected into it. I think his style of play is subjective to the massive serve from FAA, and that combined with net play might put Kecmanovic at a huge disadvantage here, and while FAA doesn’t chase after a ton of balls, I doubt he will be put into the position where he has to do that very much. I think this one has the potential to go to three, and with the massive serve, FAA has to take this one, but there’s a gut feeling that Kecmanovic could pull something big here, I’m not 100% on this one. It’s gonna be good either way though!
Bublik vs. Ramos Vinolas
Bublik has been kind of absent in the weeks following the US Open, he made a run to the final at Metz, though kind of easy with a 3 game semifinal. Bublik has played tournaments since then, but he’s been mediocre at all of them, winning expected matches, and then losing out to anyone with a decent game. I doubt this match will change that, he looked all right against Karatsev, but it’s Karatsev. I feel like playing well against Karatsev is like winning in a beauty contest against an air purifier. Anyway, Bublik is looking alright, but nothing special.
Ramos Vinolas?? How did he get here? Man, the finals run must’ve taken it out of Musetti, or maybe he was used to the trashy court conditions in Naples, and he couldn’t make the adjustment quick enough. Whatever it was, he lost, and it was a surprising loss because before he lost, the last time I checked the match score, he was up 3-1 in the 3rd set. Who knows what happened. (Oh, was Musetti hurt? That’ll do it to someone I guess. Hope he’s back before Next-Gen finals) Ramos Vinolas taking out Musetti looked very much deserved, and the level of play was much better than that of Bublik’s, and I feel like this is definitely the match that Bublik goes out in, ARV is just playing at a much higher level. ARV in 2.
Rune vs. Humbert
Rune took yet another win against ADM, and this time it was quicker, just 2 sets. Rune looked to be playing at a very high level, and he honestly looks ready to vye for the title. turns on highlights of match OH. MY. GOD. NIKE WHAT ARE YOU DOING?!?!?!?! ANOTHER ALCARAZ SHIRT? THIS IS HORRIBLE! IS THERE ANYONE ELSE WEARING THAT SHIRT I SHOULD KNOW ABOUT???? I would be fine with the excessive use of it but it’s just, ugly. Anyway, shirt aside, Rune was just stripping ADM’s shots of any pace he put into them, and the ability to cripple someone’s shots like that is going to prove hard to combat, no matter who you are. Every win I see, I like Rune to make a deep run more and more. Rune making a winning comeback is, as I said before, something I can get behind. I do think Rune could be a little more precise when it comes to shotmaking, but he has all the stuff to do some damage here.
Humbert seems to just show up at any tournament I do a writeup on. I don’t know what that means, but it’s an interesting tidbit. Anyway, Humbert’s return to the tour is looking, not too far off, but also far off. His results as of late, as well as his quality of play, have not been great. I think Humbert will suffer from Rune’s great ability to hit difficult passing shots. As I said earlier, Rune is able to strip shots of their pace, and that is going to be a challenge for everyone, including Humbert. I doubt Humbert can do enough damage to make this match go his way. Rune is in too good of form to fade him here. Rune in 2.
Molcan vs. Rinderknech
Alex Molcan has been quite something at the 250 events this year, (especially on the clay) making 2 finals, but the clay seems to be where it stops, he has been abysmal on the hard courts, especially as of late. I think the only person he’s beat is Mackenzie McDonald, and that happened twice. I think Molcan played well, but beating McDonald is simply not good enough to make him any kind of a contender in this tournament. Especially considering his opponent is Rinderknech.
Rinderknech, on the other hand, has absolutely thrived on the hard courts this year, making the final at Adelaide this year, and more recently, taking out a seeded player at every single tournament he has played since the US Open, including this one, where he played magically, and crushed Cilic, who has been really good as of late. My thing with this match, if Rinderknech can take out Cilic, he can take out Molcan. This match is really easy to call, and it’s obviously going to be Rinderknech in 2.
Bautista Agut vs. Murray
Bautista Agut beat Djere easily. As expected, there was little resistance in that match. This one will not be the same. RBA was stunning in this match, he was able to chase down a lot of dropshots that just barely went over the net, he was a threat from basically anywhere on the court, he could fire a searing return at any time, he has clean rally skills, he’s got a full arsenal, and as long as he can use it all correctly, he can be a huge threat to win this match easily. Murray is a tricky opponent though, and you can never judge a match based on just one player.
Murray beat Safiullin in a much tougher battle than RBA had, and Murray has still been as much of a threat as ever this year. He’s played in one ATP tournament since the US Open, withdrawing from Antwerp last week after losing to Korda in Gijon a few weeks back. He of course was at the Laver Cup for a while, so that accounts for some of the time off. I think Murray is a very well rounded player, and he is amazing to watch. He hasn’t scored too many victories recently, but he did beat Davidovich Fokina at Gijon, and Cerundolo at the US Open. I think this match is looking to be RBA’s because of patterns of results, and also it just feels like the quality of play is just a hair better for Bautista Agut, and I think a hair can make all the difference. RBA in 2.
Nakashima vs. Wawrinka
Nakashima won the title at San Diego a while back, and he’s gotten some unfortunate matchups recently, and I don’t really think this is an exception. Nakashima is a good player, and I think he can definitely do things to push this match in his direction. Nakashima’s round one match looked alright, Goffin had better shot quality, but Nakashima was percentage perfection, he was able to put the ball in a tough place to return, even if the shot wasn’t perfect quality. I don’t exactly know what Nakashima is like against a player like Wawrinka, but I think he can play those crazy percentage shots against an old man like Wawrinka, and it’ll probably work.
Wawrinka played incredibly against Ruud. I kind of expected it, Ruud has been off form ever since the US Open, and apparently this tournament saw no change in that. Wawrinka plays some good tennis, but I think the main problem is that he can’t chase down those percentage shots that Nakashima can put out. I think Wawrinka’s last hope for this match is to use the power absorbed from the Ruud shirt, combined with the power of his former opponent’s Ruud shirt, and serve and volley his way to the quarterfinals, and finally make his huge comeback to the main tour. RUUDBUCKS DISGUISED AS THE STANISLAYER! STANISLAYERBUCKS! Whatever it is, I think Stan can take this one, but I doubt it’ll be easy. Wawrinka in 3.