Basel Round One Beanalysis

So the way I’m doing this week is going for half of the round one matches (8) and then doing all 8 round 2 matches, and then all of the Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Finals for Basel. Enjoy this final round one “Beanalysis” for the year.

van de Zandschulp vs. Mannarino

Botic van de Zandschulp has produced some less than stunning results, losing early to Broady at Tel Aviv, Djokovic at Astana, (of course, this was to be expected) and Stricker at Antwerp last week. I think his quality of tennis is at a level where he could produce a win against Mannarino, but definitely not past round two against Carlos Alcaraz. Botic has the ability to be a good player and a contender at some tournaments, but this one gave him a bad draw, and with the form he’s been in, I don’t think he can do anything at this tournament.

Mannarino has had a lot of bad tournaments on hard courts this year. He randomly came out and won Winston-Salem, but then went back into his bad tournament streak, the best he’s done since then is a quarterfinal appearance at Astana, but really he didn’t have to do much to get there, the path was paved for him. Mannarino did beat Botic at his Winston-Salem dream run, but that match was a close one, and his form since then has been subpar. This match is not the best by any means, and both players are in poor form, but the better of the two at this point has to be Botic. Botic in 2 or easy 3.

Baez vs. Carreno Busta

Sebastian Baez has been very unfortunate when it comes to draws, getting Alcaraz in round one at the US Open, breakthrough star Lestienne in round one at Gijon, and, after an incredible victory over Sonego, who came out and won a title, playing incredibly well after the US Open, lost to Zheng, one of the two upcoming Chinese players, who everyone has had their eye on recently. I think Baez is really good, and there is definitely a bit of the Schwartzman game in there (he must’ve read Scwartzman’s bestselling book: “Tennis for Short People for Dummies”) I like Baez on the clay, but his hard court game just isn’t really there, and with PCB being as good as he is on the hard courts, I don’t see anything big happening here.

Pablano! After a sad exit to title winner Huesler at the Sofia Open a couple weeks ago, everyone (meaning me) was devastated, but then… Pablo came back to Gijon and Naples, just to blow out in the quarterfinals. I fear that Pablo’s incredible NA hard form has stayed there. “Maybe this week will be different” I hear you (once again, meaning me) saying. I think it definitely has the possibility of being different, but the statistics and recent results say no, also, Alcaraz is looming in the quarterfinals, and FAA or Kecmanovic in the semis, so I doubt he could make a run for the win, but I could see it happening. For this match, though, it’s definitely PCB in 2 considering PCB has won this matchup on clay, which is Baez’s better surface.

Auger Aliassime vs. Huesler

Whistling to self What’s this? A newspaper? “Felix Auger Aliassime wins second title in a row at Naples” spits out coffee WHAT?? WHERE DID THIS COME FROM??? (Post Editing Note: I realize I’ve implied I was whistling with the coffee in my mouth, and I think that is hilarious, so I’m keeping it.) Good grief man, that was the last thing I expected FAA to do. I’m just gonna say it, I think he could make a run for Paris, but that would require an early exit this week to prepare and also to rest. I doubt he’d go out in round one, because that would make entering the tournament a waste of time. I think round two against Kecmanovic is a good place to fade him. FAA’s title wins can be attributed to clean hitting, athleticism, and his slice shots. All of these are great weapons to have, especially against a serve-heavy player.

Huesler is another case of the Mannarino. Losing a bunch, and then coming out and nabbing a title at a random tournament, and then going back to losing a bunch. I think Huesler plays a good game of tennis, but that level just cannot compare with someone like FAA, I feel like FAA can just outdo him at everything but serving, which FAA makes up for in his slicing, and incredibly clean shots. I think this one is going the way of FAA in 2.

Davidovich Fokina vs. Kecmanovic

Davidovich Fokina has been in, like, one tournament since the US Open, and so we have about nothing to base this writeup on, so we will take the highlights of his match at Gijon against Murray instead. Oh, so it wasn’t that bad of a loss. I think ADF is playing well as of late, he just got unlucky with momentum swings, and Murray is also a hard player to beat, even when he’s old. I doubt ADF can beat Kecmanovic, but he’s playing at a level where I would not be surprised in the slightest if he makes this one go to three, or even win it.

Kecmanovic has been flatlining at the quarterfinals and semifinals of tournaments for a while now, but I honestly think that this one is his shot, if he can make it through the Musetti, and the winner of PCB vs. Alcaraz, he can win the tournament. I enjoy watching Kecmanovic play, but I wouldn’t say he’s anywhere near the top of the list. I think that he can beat ADF, but I’m not gonna lie, it’s looking to be a hard one. Kecmanovic in 3.

Ramos-Vinolas vs. Musetti

ARV has not progressed past round one on the main tour since the US Open, but I chalk that one up to bad draw luck. I think he has the ability to make the quarterfinals at 250s, but I feel like he’s not at a level capable of making consistent semifinals and above, especially at higher level tournaments. I don’t necessarily think that he’s been playing bad lately, he’s just had really good opposition that makes him look bad in comparison. I think this match is going to be no different honestly, he’s just not at a place where this upset looks possible.

Musetti won another title? Nice. I look at his portion of the draw, and I think he definitely can make the quarterfinals or semifinals before bowing out. Musetti is pretty darn good at tennis, and I think he could make the top 10 after all the veterans retire. Is this tournament going to be another win? I don’t think so. I think he could possibly make the semis here, and I think it is within the realm of possibility for him to pull a crazy upset and make it into the finals, but it is kind of unlikely. This match definitely goes the way of Musetti in 2 though.

de Minaur vs. Rune

REMATCH ALERT!!! Here we go people! This one is looking to be the best match in the first round, and that’s high standards considering we just watched Alcaraz narrowly edge out Draper in a 3 set thriller. de Minaur is one of the speediest on the tour, and his shots are great too. I watched him against PCB at the US Open, and let me tell you, he looked great in that match, despite only winning a set, his ability to ramp up his game is great, and his serve was on fire in the second set of that match. I think that is a trait that can bag him a deep run in this tournament, but his first obstacle is Rune, who he lost to just last week at the semifinals in Stockholm.

Sound the “Beanz was wrong” bell, because I was wrong about Rune, I figured it’d take him until next clay season to get back to title winning level, and here he is making the finals at Sofia, and then winning at Stockholm. I’m not mad though, and I think it is officially time for me to hop back on the Rune train, until it crashes again. (I hope it doesn’t though) I like Rune to win this match, but then again, he would be tired after a title run, but then again, he literally just beat de Minaur a few days ago in the same type of court, so I don’t know. All I know is that this one is going to be tight, but somehow, I don’t think it’s gonna be 3 sets. Someone in 2 very contested sets.

Bautista Agut vs. Djere

RBA was completely demolished at Gijon and Naples, but he was able to take out FAA at Astana before falling to Medvedev later on. I think he’s at a not so great level of play, but in my opinion, it’s better than what Djere has to offer.

Djere made the final at Winston-Salem, but then swiftly retreated to losing a crap ton of matches. He’s been in pretty poor form recently. I think this match is the most simple of the ones I’m covering, RBA isn’t in the best form, but he is certainly in better form than Djere. Of course, there’s always the possibility of an upset, but I doubt it. RBA in 2.

Wawrinka vs. Ruud

I bet all of you who read my Metz writeups are scared right about now. You know what is about to be written here. Actually, I doubt they will have them both wearing that same shirt, if they do, I’d be surprised. Ruud has been extremely shaky after the US Open, but I am 100% sure he is going to take this tournament as seriously as possible because he needs to get into form for Paris, and then the Tour Finals. He got one of the worst matchups though, because you will never know when Stanislas is going to Stanislay you. He’s just always there, and always terrifying. I think Ruud has a lot of great aspects in his game, but it just has been so shaky I don’t know if I can give him much in this tournament. Hopefully his Paris draw is better, but luckily, if he can get past Stan, he can make the semis or the finals.

Stan is back at it again, but I’m not sure how this one will go. If it was Stan vs. an old French guy, I would know it ends in a loss, because that is how the past two tournaments have gone for him. I, as you might know, love Stan’s style of play, and when he was in his prime, I could watch those matches forever. This one looks shaky though. I don’t know if he can pull through in this state. The thing he does have going for him though is that Ruud is in a bad state himself, this is probably the best time to get Ruud at this point, before he’s warmed back up. I think this one is going to go the way of Ruud, but I just don’t know. This one is for sure going to three though. My guess is someone wearing the Ruud shirt in 3.