Australian Open Beanalysis: Round Two Day 1

Hello everyone! I am back, I am sorry I missed round one, I wasn’t feeling the best, but now I’m back to normal, and I’m able to cover all of the matches from here on out. I do not have all the matchups to write on at this point when I’m writing, so the ones that I don’t have at the moment will come out at a later date, and I should be able to start on those when I get them. With all that out of the way, here’s your AO Round Two Beanalysis, Enjoy!

Nadal vs. McDonald

So. Rafa is back at it again, this time with the number one seed after Alcaraz dropped out. Nadal had a bit of a wild card for his first round match, but he seemed to have easily overcome the challenge. He hasn’t played any through the beginning of the season, but even still, I don’t think that’ll make much of a difference considering we are talking about one of the greats of the game. He beat Draper pretty easy, getting my hopes up for a good run in this year’s AO. His play is looking as good as it was around this time last year, so I think this match shouldn’t be too hard for him.

McDonald had a marathon of a match with Nakashima in his round one, and he narrowly made it back after losing two sets in a row. I feel like this kind of inconsistency will make it to where Rafa can easily make a comeback, even from two sets down. McDonald didn’t really do that much in his matches pre-AO, and I know Rafa is in top shape, even without previous matches. I think this match can really only go one of two ways. Rafa completely blows McDonald out in three sets, or he gets injured and has to retire.

Svrcina vs. Nishioka

Svrcina has pulled an upset on Munar in round one, and he’s done it extremely well. That scoreline looks like something from a number 1 seed’s round one match. I haven’t seen much from Svcrina before, and he’s been stuck on the challenger tour for a while, but this upset might just give him some good wildcards in the future.

Nishioka played a good first round match against Ymer, who was probably a bit more tricky than Svrcina’s round one opponent Munar. I think this match is really pretty straightforward, I can’t really see Svrcina doing much to Nishioka, especially since Nishioka has been playing pretty darn well in recent tournaments, and his play is just better at this point in his career. There might be a small sliver of a chance that an upset happens here, but I don’t see a likely scenario. Nishioka in 3 or 4.

Khachanov vs. Kubler

Now this match looks interesting. Kubler seemed to be in good looking shape during his first round match, but this is quite the jump in difficulty. Khachanov, for all the crap I give him, is really not that bad. I can’t help but respect his US Open semifinal run last year. Stopping players that had really hit their stride in the tournaments leading up to the US Open, and I think he looks pretty good here. There of course is always a gamble trusting Khachanov, and Kubler is the type to deliver an upset here, but Khachanov looks too sturdy to go down this early.

Kubler has been on the edge of the main tour, playing in 250 tournaments, but still also playing in challenger, and that translates to his play as well, he isn’t as well suited to be on the main tour as Khachanov, and that makes all the difference. He has had a good run previously at Wimbledon, but his grass specialty will not serve him well on these outdoor court conditions. Kubler could pull something here, but once again, Khachanov is just way too steady to lose out here. I am looking forward to what Kubler can do this season, but I don’t think anything incredible happens here. Khachanov in 4.

Shang vs. Tiafoe

I read a stat that Shang is the first person born in 2005 to win an ATP tour level match. That’s interesting. Shang has been in a drought for a couple months going into the end of the season, and this is his first match win period in a while, not having won a match since the start of November. Now I hear you saying “But Beanz, that’s the offseason though!” Well, it might just be, but not for the challenger tour, so stop objecting to my beautiful writing and just enjoy it. Any more complaining and I’m gonna turn this car around. Anyway, Shang has been on the Challenger tour for the bulk of last year, and he actually has progressed pretty well, and quickly too. I think he has a good future in this sport, and to be a 17 year old in the second round of the Australian Open, that’s something to be proud of. Tiafoe is a different beast though, and I highly doubt Shang can break through him, especially after Tiafoe’s crushing run to the semifinals at the US Open last year. This one can really only go to Tiafoe, probably in three.

Hurkacz vs. Sonego

Hubi! I actually like to watch Hurkacz from time to time, he plays in a style that just feels more real, like something you’d see in real life. I like that. He does play some amazing tennis when he’s on point. Definitely deserving of his win in round one. Might I also note that he won in uber style, that lavender polo is something I’ve gotta get myself. Thank goodness he isn’t wearing the Ruud shirt anymore.

Lorenzo Sonego, you are an interesting player to say the least. You have a massive slump of a year last year, and then show up to Metz and win the whole thing, and then finish the season out poorly. I don’t know where that Metz win came from, but he did beat Hurkacz there, and I think Sonego could possibly be a challenge for him here as well, I don’t really know though, because if Sonego can come out from a slump and win a whole tournament like that, just to return to the slump makes it impossible to really predict. This is a new season though, so it is definitely possible for him to make this tough for Hubi. I still don’t think Sonego can completely finish it out, especially in BO3, so I think Hubi in 4 or 5.

Daniel vs. Shapovalov

Taro Daniel always shows up to slams, but he never really shows up, you know what I mean? Yeah, he just never gets anywhere. Except for the AO last year, where he beat Andy Murray in round two, and then took a set off of Jannik Sinner in round three. After that, he didn’t win another slam match until now, where he beat an easy enough opponent, Ernesto Escobedo. I don’t really have that much faith in Daniel here, because he doesn’t really have the skills necessary to take out Shapovalov, who looked pretty in-form during his first round match against Lajovic.

Speaking of Shapovalov, talk about a comeback, he’s made up for the front half of last year. He had a really good run at the AO last year, beating an in-shape Zverev in straight sets to make it to the quarterfinals, and then things got dicey. Shapo basically dropped off the face of the earth, and I had to give Elon Musk all my Ruudbucks from the USO last year to get him to rescue Shapovalov. Well, it worked, and our beloved Shapo is back. Hopefully he doesn’t blow it, or else I’m gonna have to find another way to bribe Elon. Anyway, I doubt a loss will occur here, Daniel just does not possess the skill to beat Shapo in this form at this point in the tournament. Shapo wins in 3.

Korda vs. Watanuki

Korda is a player that surprised me last year, he did very well at most of the tournaments he went to, and there were really no noticeable slump areas, besides maybe post Wimbledon, but he really didn’t play too much then. I don’t see this one really doing much, a Korda win seems inevitable, it’s just a matter of gauging how long it’ll take. I doubt Korda will let Watanuki roll him like Rinderknech did. Watanuki does not have any experience on the main tour, and aside from a win over Martinez last year on the clay, does not have any notable achievements to his name. I think this is a good start for him in terms of grand slams, but I doubt he does anything here, Korda is just too good to get rolled like Rinderknech was. Korda wins this in 3.

Millman vs. Medvedev

Ok, I’m not gonna lie, there is just about nothing to say here, Medvedev has been the runner up at this tournament 2 years in a row, and I do not think Millman possesses the skills necessary to beat a slam winner, who has also made it to 3 total slam finals, won a Masters 1000, and has beaten Novak Djokovic in straights in a slam final. Compare that to John Millman, what do you think is gonna happen. Medvedev wins, right? I would call a psychologist if you said anything else. Anyway, Medvedev in a super easy match, most likely 3 sets.

Tsitsipas vs. Hijikata

Uh oh, Tsitsipas, watch out, it’s a player hardly anyone knows about! We all know that’s your biggest weakness when it comes to slams. Anyway, I don’t actually think this one is gonna end in a Tsitsi-loss, but hey, I didn’t think he’d lose to Galan at the USO last year, and look what happened. Tsitispas started the season by playing in the United Cup, and doing mediocre. It happens, Stefanos, no need to post all about it on the internet. Anyway, our favorite Instagram philosopher had a season that real philosophers probably couldn’t figure out. He had a great start, making the semifinals of the AO, and then some good stuff in lower level tournaments, and then Indian Wells came around, AND HE LOST TO BROOKSBY???? HOW-? WH-? HUH? This pretty much described the rest of his season, he had some amazing moments, and then he’d go and blow it. And then there was the Kyrgios saga, but that’s another story. Anyway, I don’t think anything is gonna happen out of the ordinary, I don’t have much to say about Rinky, really what is there to say, he’s pretty low ranked, and doesn’t have much experience, I think this can only go to Tsitsipas in 3.

Griekspoor vs. van de Zandschulp

IT’S THE BATTLE OF THE FLYING DUTCHMEN, (I don’t think they are gonna start flying, but a bear stole Nadal’s racquet the other day, so who knows.) Griekspoor has had a crappy end to 2022, but he’s redeemed himself by coming back to win Pune. He is definitely at a disadvantage here, and Botic has beaten him before, but there’s always a chance. Botic on the other hand, had a crappy end to 2022, but he did not redeem himself by winning Pune, he lost in the semifinals, leaving those of us wishing for the battle of the Dutchmen hanging. Luckily, we now can make the joke hahaha. Anyways, Botic really has everything playing into his favor for this match. I don’t see a way that he loses, he’s got the play style, he’s got the H2H, he’s got the endurance, he’s got basically everything except for injury possibilities covered. I don’t think this one goes the way of Griekspoor, but I can say for sure that a Dutchman will win this match. (My guess is Botic, if you couldn’t tell. Probably in 4)

Harris vs. Fucsovics

L-LOYD (Pronounced similarly to A-ARON, “Luh-Loid”) is back at it again, upsetting seeds at slams! He had quite the time at the 2021 USO, and then kinda died out, but still upset some seeds. He’s not a bad player in my honest opinion, and he just did it again to Musetti, who I thought was someone to watch out for at this tournament. I don’t think he loses this one, but Fucsovics did look pretty sharp in round one.

Fucsovics is one of those players that everyone knows without being overly popular. We all just kinda know he exists, and then he does something cool and then we’re like, ok cool, and then he dies out again, and we go back to just remembering he exists. This could be what happens here, but he also looked good enough in his round one to where this match isn’t that clear. He beat a much worse opponent, meaning this is less of a factor than was previously thought, but still. Fucsovics has beaten Harris before, twice, but Harris did also just beat Musetti. I think this one is gonna go to L-LOYD in 4, maybe 5 if Fucsovics can pull something out of his hat.

Etcheverry vs. Sinner

Tomas M. Etcheverry is kinda the opposite of Fucsovics, we just forget he exists, and he never does anything interesting. He has been stuck doing nothing interesting for a while now, and I can’t help but kinda feel bad for writing him off all the time, but you know, there’s gotta be people at the bottom for there to be people at the top, right?

Speaking of people at the top and also people being stuck, enter Jannik Sinner. Jannik has been stuck, but also at the top, a much better place to be stuck in, because it’s much more profitable. Anyway, Sinner, being a better player here, definitely takes the win, and moves on, to maybe possibly get unstuck and back into the top 10, where he can make some moves to get a Masters title under his belt or something of the sort. Anyway, not much to see here. Sinner in 3.

Norrie vs. Lestienne

OMIGOSH THIS IS THE MATCH I’VE BEEN LOOKING FORWARD TO! I WILL DEFINITELY BE WATCHING THIS ONE! Norrie is a good player, and certainly one of the harder ones to beat in a situation like this, but his opponent is the one I’m excited about. Lestienne, but we will talk about him in a bit. Norrie has been really impressive after his win at the 2021 Indian Wells. I really like watching him play, and he’s done some impressive things, and I do not doubt that he is going to do some amazing things this year, and I can only wait patiently for it all to unfold before my very eyes. Anyway, Norrie is a force to be reckoned with.

Now, we can talk about everyone’s favorite capital of the Byzantine Empire, CONSTANT(INOPLE)! Lestienne broke through the challenger tour at the end of the year last year, and he faced some incredible challenges, like one of the GOATs, Novak Djokovic. He overcame a lot of them, and even made it to the semifinals of Tel Aviv last year, and then to the semifinals of Auckland this year. He beat Montiero in his first round with ease, and that excites me for what he’s gonna do in this match. I doubt he wins it, but he can still win at least a set. In the end I have to hand it to Norrie, but not without a fight.

Eubanks vs. Lehecka

This is one of the less exciting matches, with two less than star players, or maybe that’s the bias towards the Norrie Lestienne match talking. Anyway, I don’t really know much about these two, but from previous results it looks like Lehecka is gonna take the cake here, he just beat Cincinatti Champion Borna Coric, while Eubanks just beat, in much poorer fashion, Soonwoo Kwon. Who, while having just won a title, is a much less formidable opponent. This one’s gonna have to go the way of Lehecka in 3 or 4.

Cerundolo vs. Moutet

Cerundolo came out of nowhere, and then returned to nowhere last year. I have no idea what happened, he played some amazing tennis at the beginning of the year, and then just didn’t do anything else interesting until, well, never. He isn’t really at the caliber to play at this level right now, of course, his opponent is Moutet, who isn’t too great. I don’t think this match is gonna be much of anything, because the players are just not stable enough in my opinion, Moutet is a hard rager, and Cerundolo just hasn’t been doing too hot recently. I don’t know who this match is gonna go to, but it’s definitely gonna be long. Someone in 4 or 5

Molcan vs. Auger-Aliassime

Molcan, Molcan, what are you really? An enigma to be sure. He can be extremely up there in terms of play level, making 250 finals, and playing good tennis, and he can also just burn out and die. This is what I expect to happen here. There isn’t much to go off of, besides him beating Wawrinka in round one here, everything else points to a slump, so I’m gonna say no upset today.

I mean, just look at FAA, how can you not want to back him here. He had a mediocre season until the very very end, where he went beast mode and destroyed every tournament in his path. He went absolutely insane. Winning three titles in a row. I don’t see how he doesn’t win this one. FAA in 3.