Jan 29, 2023

Australian Open Beanalysis: Finale

HELLO EVERYBODY MY NAME IS BEANZ AND WELCOME BACK TO THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN! This is the final match in this tournament, and it’s looking to be a pretty good one. I’m going to stay up and watch it. Here’s my ramblings on what is in store for us.

Tsitsipas vs. Djokovic

Stefanos has had a walk in the park for the most part for this entire tournament. His most challenging match was probably against Sinner, that being the only one that went to 5 sets. Everything else was 3 sets until the Khachanov match, where in an unfortunate turn of events, after breaking for the lead in the third set, got broken back, and then lost the tiebreak. The 4th set was very quick, and actually, the match played out almost identically to the Tommy Paul vs. Ben Shelton match in the quarterfinals. The irony is that both times the winner went on to play Djokovic in the next round, and if we’re being honest with ourselves, both lose. I watched the first three and a bit sets before my stream broke and I just gave up and went to bed. I think the main thing was that Khachanov didn’t know how to play to his strengths, and Tsitispas knew how to exploit the extreme net weakness that Khachanov has. I’m pretty sure all the highlight reels had that one rally where Tsitsipas was barely holding on, and getting smashed over and over again, only to get a weak one and come back to win the rally. Sadly, there seems to be little to no weakness to exploit in Novak. Unless that injury comes back, which would end poorly. The stats in this match against Khachanov show that Tsitsipas was able to do more with his serve, and also did more with his return. As I said, he was able to exploit the weakness at the net, and the serve added that extra kick to win him the match overall. Tsitsipas is the master of the choking though, and lost a set that he should’ve won easily. We all remember what happened last time these two played in a slam final, but I think it will not be as close as that one this time around, because Novak is a destruction machine right now.

Here we are again, in another Grand Slam final with Novak Djokovic. There has only been one slam in the past two years that he hasn’t made the final in, and that was because Nadal was on a rampage back in last year’s Roland Garros. About one year before that loss to Nadal was when Novak came back from two sets down to beat Tsitsipas in the final of RG. I did not have the pleasure of watching that match, but it was some good mental strength from Novak, and I think that the mental strength won’t be as necessary here, because there is no visible weakness in this killing machine. All of his opponents in this tournament have left that court demolished, and I doubt that changes tonight. During his match against Paul, he completely dominated. He won more of Paul’s service games than Paul did, got just about double the amount of winners Paul did, and a lot more points in general. Tsitsipas is going to definitely be the most powerful opponent that Novak has faced thus far. Some might say that Rublev is the strongest player that he’s faced, but I disagree. Rublev has an abysmal serve, which Tsitsipas does not, Rublev also is worse at commanding rallies. I do know that Tsitsipas will be the only one who I think could within reason win two sets against Novak, but again, it’s very unlikely. Novak can seemingly run back and forth, and make Tsitsipas work for any points he can. Another thing is that he can play the long game and make Tsitsipas serve over and over again, and turn that into yet another advantage for himself. Along with those, he also has more experience in slam finals, and is an all around better player. Tsitsipas can probably squeeze hard enough to grab a set against him, but I think it’ll be barely. This one is gonna be fun, but it definitely goes to Novak in 4.